Brewcrew82’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint (For Real)

[Brewcrew82]

18 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Yet, no team has purchased it and made it their property to the exclusion of the other teams, AND the proprietor apparently continues to let MLB teams use it for free despite it being 94.8% accurate. Doesn't wash, but hey whatever maybe baseball is filled with a bunch of idiots after all. 

That's because, as I've stated before, every team has its own private system that it mostly uses. A public system such as this is not relied on, but used occasionally to "check their work." 

[Jopal78]

6 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

That's because, as I've stated before, every team has its own private system that it mostly uses. A public system such as this is not relied on, but used occasionally to "check their work." 

Again, use logic. If they needed to “check their work” it implies this jamoke has a better algorithm and with millions of dollars and careers at stake someone would have bought it from him by now. 

[Redd Vencher]

12 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Again, use logic. If they needed to “check their work” it implies this jamoke has a better algorithm and with millions of dollars and careers at stake someone would have bought it from him by now. 

Hasn't Baseball Trade Values only been a thing since 2019? As time goes on, it's certainly possible he gets snapped up by a front office somewhere if his system continues to produce accurate results. Sean Smith, Dave Cameron, and others have been snapped up by front offices in the past.

[Brewcrew82]

18 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Again, use logic. If they needed to “check their work” it implies this jamoke has a better algorithm and with millions of dollars and careers at stake someone would have bought it from him by now. 

Lol “logic”. Says the guy who wants to non-tender Renfroe, yet is fine tendering Suter and Houser while potentially signing Benintendi. 

Listen, you can ultimately choose to believe whatever you want but the anecdotal evidence is out there that MLB front offices do refer to it from time to time. And it doesn’t fly in the face of logic when independent verification is a key part of the analytical process. Otherwise your results may suffer from bias.

[Jopal78]

12 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Lol “logic”. Says the guy who wants to non-tender Renfroe, yet is fine tendering Suter and Houser while potentially signing Benintendi. 

Listen, you can ultimately choose to believe whatever you want but the anecdotal evidence is out there that MLB front offices do refer to it from time to time. And it doesn’t fly in the face of logic when independent verification is a key part of the analytical process. Otherwise your results may suffer from bias.

The New York Times bought Wordle after like 6 months. If that trade values website wasn’t complete  garbage it would have been snapped up by someone by now. That’s the way the world works, especially if it’s possible it could give some team an edge. 
 

Moreover, professional baseball is a billion dollar industry. If anyone with half a brain stumbles upon an algorithm that was reasonably reliable for evaluating MLB  trades why would they ever give their information away for free? 

[Brewcrew82]

23 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

The New York Times bought Wordle after like 6 months. If that trade values website wasn’t complete  garbage it would have been snapped up by someone by now. That’s the way the world works, especially if it’s possible it could give some team an edge. 
 

Moreover, professional baseball is a billion dollar industry. If anyone with half a brain stumbles upon an algorithm that was reasonably reliable for evaluating MLB  trades why would they ever give their information away for free? 

“Garbage”. Yeah, that’s why it’s been accurate on 95% of trades since its creation. It’s not perfect nor is it the Bible, but it’s a very useful public resource…Keep it going man, you never cease to amaze me. Lol 

[Jopal78]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

“Garbage”. Yeah, that’s why it’s been accurate on 95% of trades since its creation…Keep it going man, you never cease to amaze me. Lol

Like I said it’s a billion dollar industry where players are willing to shoot chemicals in their arms to get an edge; executives risk going to prison seeking an edge in illegally exploiting signing Latin American players. Yet some dude has an algorithm that is 95% accurate in determining  trade values and he lets MLB teams use it for free and nobody has purchased it from him yet. HA HA… it’s baloney. 

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Like I said it’s a billion dollar industry where players are willing to shoot chemicals in their arms to get an edge; executives risk going to prison seeking an edge in illegally exploiting signing Latin American players. Yet some dude has an algorithm that is 95% accurate in determining  trade values and he lets MLB teams use it for free and nobody has purchased it from him yet. HA HA… it’s baloney. 

Whatever. Believe what you want it to believe. I’m done arguing it as it has so little to do with my original post.

[Hopper]

[bulldogboy0733]

I could see this happening and it is a good start for sure. Hate the Jansen move but the rest is all right. I say third in the central 10gb of the Cards.

[bulldogboy0733]

I could see this happening and it is a good start for sure. Hate the Jansen move but the rest is all right. I say third in the central 10gb of the Cards.

[bulldogboy0733]

I could see this happening and it is a good start for sure. Hate the Jansen move but the rest is all right. I say third in the central 10gb of the Cards.

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, bulldogboy0733 said:

I could see this happening and it is a good start for sure. Hate the Jansen move but the rest is all right. I say third in the central 10gb of the Cards.

Give me between 85-92 wins. Cardinals aren't that much better than us. And the Cubs, Reds, and Pirates still have plenty of work to do. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

On 10/14/2022 at 1:43 PM, jay87shot said:

To be honest, I have always disliked that website. Tyrone Taylor and Joey Weimer are basically the same value. If we could get a top 100 prospect for Taylor he would be gone in a second. Yelich has a negative 122, so we would have to give up like our top 12 prospects not named Chourio to get rid of Yeli for nothing. Also Chouio at 75 has more value than Burnes. Lastly Houser has more value than Lauer. 

I must have been thinking of a different catcher who started hot, my bad should have look. My point stands that he didn't really have a chance to wear down.

I'm with you. I've thought that site was a joke ever since the Grisham/Davies for Urias/Lauer deal, when they retroactively went in and lowered Urias's trade value significantly immediately following the deal to make the deal itself not look as lopsided in the Brewers' favor according to their algorithm. They've since done that on other deals, and the site owner even admitted that they do it. I'm sorry, but when you move the goalposts like that, you've lost me.

[nate82]

On 10/14/2022 at 8:51 PM, Jopal78 said:

Like I said it’s a billion dollar industry where players are willing to shoot chemicals in their arms to get an edge; executives risk going to prison seeking an edge in illegally exploiting signing Latin American players. Yet some dude has an algorithm that is 95% accurate in determining  trade values and he lets MLB teams use it for free and nobody has purchased it from him yet. HA HA… it’s baloney. 

I don't think you have ever worked with data before or used third party applications to proof your work.  It is ok if you don't understand this.  From banks to tech giants like Google they all use third party applications to proof their work.  If they buy the third party application it is no longer a good audit tool to proof your work and is more than likely going to be your new model if you are going to buy it.

The teams already have a system and they will probably just be using the site to check if their results against what someone else is doing.  Hey it is free why pay for something when you can just use it for free?

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

I don't think you have ever worked with data before or used third party applications to proof your work.  It is ok if you don't understand this.  From banks to tech giants like Google they all use third party applications to proof their work.  If they buy the third party application it is no longer a good audit tool to proof your work and is more than likely going to be your new model if you are going to buy it.

The teams already have a system and they will probably just be using the site to check if their results against what someone else is doing.  Hey it is free why pay for something when you can just use it for free?

Yep, and its apples and oranges. Google isn't proofing their work on free fan websites either. 

Pro baseball is a cut throat industry where a mistake in professional judgment can cost someone their  career. I don't think you've ever worked in an industry where your judgment and expertise determines your worth, which is why it's okay you don't understand this. 

Using some fans' website when the website even admits they're often wrong, not meant to be predictive and importantly admit that MLB team's analytical engines are much larger and sophisticated is preposterous. Moreover, the website actually pimps having been mentioned in on sports/pop culture websites. Don't you think if they had any proof of someone in the business actually used their site, they would also pimp that too (even if it was just Scott the intern screwing around on his coffee break)? 

 

 

[nate82]

33 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Yep, and its apples and oranges. Google isn't proofing their work on free fan websites either. 

Pro baseball is a cut throat industry where a mistake in professional judgment can cost someone their  career. I don't think you've ever worked in an industry where your judgment and expertise determines your worth, which is why it's okay you don't understand this. 

Using some fans' website when the website even admits they're often wrong, not meant to be predictive and importantly admit that MLB team's analytical engines are much larger and sophisticated is preposterous. Moreover, the website actually pimps having been mentioned in on sports/pop culture websites. Don't you think if they had any proof of someone in the business actually used their site, they would also pimp that too (even if it was just Scott the intern screwing around on his coffee break)? 

 

 

Nice strawman arguments.

I work in the financial industry and it is completely cut throat and far more than the baseball industry.

We use a lot of free information to proof and validate our data.  Thinking MLB execs are not going to do this also is just asinine.  Regardless if the site is wrong or right it is another data point to verify your information.  Is your model right or is it wrong.  Since other teams can’t see another teams valuation process a free one is just as good to compare your data points.

Why is this so hard for you to understand?

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Nice strawman arguments.

I work in the financial industry and it is completely cut throat and far more than the baseball industry.

We use a lot of free information to proof and validate our data.  Thinking MLB execs are not going to do this also is just asinine.  Regardless if the site is wrong or right it is another data point to verify your information.  Is your model right or is it wrong.  Since other teams can’t see another teams valuation process a free one is just as good to compare your data points.

Why is this so hard for you to understand?

Because he has a superiority complex and thinks he is always right, regardless of his lack of complete information. He doesn't want to understand. To the normal reader, however, what you and I are describing is perfectly reasonable. Independent validation of data is one of the cornerstones of effective analysis.