Wisconsin Basketball 2022-23

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Badgers are basically eliminated from the tourney with this loss. 

No they are not. If they beat Purdue and Minnesota they are definitely in. It was a horrific loss, but not a season-ending one.

That being said, Jordan Davis has served his purpose as a Badger by getting us Johnny. Time for him and a couple others to leave. 

[MrTPlush]

9 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Badgers are basically eliminated from the tourney with this loss. 

Well, they should be, but they aren’t. Purdue isn’t playing well these days and is beatable. It would give them a win that could easily put them in the bracket. 
 

They mentioned the worst part of this loss though. Now they are facing a situation when they play someone like Ohio State or Nebraska in the conference tourney to open it. A game that provides absolutely zero upside winning. Even a second round win over one of the fringe tourney teams may not provide much of a resume boost…thus requiring a three game streak to make it.

For a team that doesn’t know what a 2-game winning streak is, let alone a 3-game winning streak…not a good situation.

[MrTPlush]

Live look at Badgers every time they find themselves in the tourney bracket.
 

[Jim French Stepstool]

29 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Badgers are basically eliminated from the tourney with this loss. 

Not to say they're making it in, but no.

It'll be good to hear from Gard regarding the final 8 secs. McGee certainly had the chance to foul before the pass to the corner. At the end of the day, a shot at the buzzer by a guy who was banging in the post all day & shot once from the arc up to that point. It's been that kind of season.

If someone in December told me Essegian would make one 3-point shot in a game & still finish with 24 I'd pull out the breathalyzer. The growth of that kid has been remarkable.

Great job by McGee stepping up. Really the only guy (save Davis) who I thought didn't play well wasn't out there most of the 2nd half. Other than the outcome & a lousy stretch late in the 1st half, no complaints.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

A game I expected to lose coming in but....one I'm still stewing over an hour later. Toughest one of the season for me because of the opponent and circumstances and stakes. We will see how this team responds. At this point, I just might be content rooting against Michigan.

If anyone sees Gard's explanation for the last moments....ugh. I just don't see any reason to not make them make a 1-and-1.

[Jim French Stepstool]

57 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Well, they should be, but they aren’t. Purdue isn’t playing well these days and is beatable. It would give them a win that could easily put them in the bracket. 
 

They mentioned the worst part of this loss though. Now they are facing a situation when they play someone like Ohio State or Nebraska in the conference tourney to open it. A game that provides absolutely zero upside winning. Even a second round win over one of the fringe tourney teams may not provide much of a resume boost…thus requiring a three game streak to make it.

For a team that doesn’t know what a 2-game winning streak is, let alone a 3-game winning streak…not a good situation.

 In & of itself no, but the upside in a Wednesday win (if they play that day) is It provides you with an opportunity to play the next day vs someone who could conceivably help your resume. I realize this is fluid, but about a week ago there were 8 Big Ten teams projected as an 8 seed or higher. Semantics I guess, but I don't consider those to be fringe teams.

The lack of ability up to this point to get on a run certainly has been crippling.

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 minute ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

A game I expected to lose coming in but....one I'm still stewing over an hour later. Toughest one of the season for me because of the opponent and circumstances and stakes. We will see how this team responds. At this point, I just might be content rooting against Michigan.

If anyone sees Gard's explanation for the last moments....ugh. I just don't see any reason to not make them make a 1-and-1.

He said in his presser he "thinks he knows what went wrong, but wants to look at the tapes". I'm pretty sure he was referring only to the last 2 secs though. As to the seconds before that, I remember a similar sequence a week or 2 ago where they didn't foul & he said afterward he wanted them to. So I dunno, I'm waiting to hear what he has to say, too.

[Jim French Stepstool]

OK............Gard is saying they were looking to foul, he thought McGee DID foul around 4-5 seconds, but it wasn't called.

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

OK............Gard is saying they were looking to foul, he thought McGee DID foul around 4-5 seconds, but it wasn't called.

By far the biggest mistake on Gard’s part was having two defenders inside the paint in that situation. Even if they get a layup there, you can just toss the ball to the other end of the court on the ensuing inbound, and the game is over. Inexcusable.

Now, Purdue becomes a must-win. 

[yourout]

They play hard but the lack of talent really leaves them zero margin for error.

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

By far the biggest mistake on Gard’s part was having two defenders inside the paint in that situation. Even if they get a layup there, you can just toss the ball to the other end of the court on the ensuing inbound, and the game is over. Inexcusable.

Now, Purdue becomes a must-win. 

Davis (I think) going for the steal was also a bit of a poor decision. Just let him catch it. He either throws a prayer of a pass or puts up a ridiculous contest shot flat footed. 

All he did was open the door for a realistic look.

[MrTPlush]

2 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

 In & of itself no, but the upside in a Wednesday win (if they play that day) is It provides you with an opportunity to play the next day vs someone who could conceivably help your resume. I realize this is fluid, but about a week ago there were 8 Big Ten teams projected as an 8 seed or higher. Semantics I guess, but I don't consider those to be fringe teams.

The lack of ability up to this point to get on a run certainly has been crippling.

Sure…the point is though, You gotta beat a worthless team just to play someone that may help your resume. Which, I don’t have the bracket right in front of me, could be a Penn State/Michigan etc. that are pretty fringe teams. I don’t know if that kind of win is getting them over the hill if they lose to Purdue.

[RedStickBrew]

3 hours ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

A game I expected to lose coming in but....one I'm still stewing over an hour later. Toughest one of the season for me because of the opponent and circumstances and stakes. We will see how this team responds. At this point, I just might be content rooting against Michigan.

If anyone sees Gard's explanation for the last moments....ugh. I just don't see any reason to not make them make a 1-and-1.

I echo your sentiment re: scUM.  Gard made it sound as if they did try to foul the dribbler up the court but didn't get a call?  I agree that you don't foul with 2 seconds left.  I just really don't like how they allowed an uncontested 3 in that spot, just switch everything on the perimeter and contest the shot.

FYI. I believe there is an ongoing study of the up by 3 points end of game scenarios: play-it-out versus fouling, and the outcomes are about the same either way, the team up 3 wins 94%-95% of the time.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

1 hour ago, RedStickBrew said:

I echo your sentiment re: scUM.  Gard made it sound as if they did try to foul the dribbler up the court but didn't get a call?  I agree that you don't foul with 2 seconds left.  I just really don't like how they allowed an uncontested 3 in that spot, just switch everything on the perimeter and contest the shot.

FYI. I believe there is an ongoing study of the up by 3 points end of game scenarios: play-it-out versus fouling, and the outcomes are about the same either way, the team up 3 wins 94%-95% of the time.

Yeah, this makes sense.

Really, it's the 1-and-1 that gets me. Making them have to deal with that extra pressure seems worth it.

We'll see how they bounce back.  Big opportunity Thursday.

 

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

2 hours ago, RedStickBrew said:

I echo your sentiment re: scUM.  Gard made it sound as if they did try to foul the dribbler up the court but didn't get a call?  I agree that you don't foul with 2 seconds left.  I just really don't like how they allowed an uncontested 3 in that spot, just switch everything on the perimeter and contest the shot.

FYI. I believe there is an ongoing study of the up by 3 points end of game scenarios: play-it-out versus fouling, and the outcomes are about the same either way, the team up 3 wins 94%-95% of the time.

Switching everything is the way to go there, & that's what they did. Wahl was on Dickinson on the inbound & was picked off.

I guess if you're McGee in that scenario you just aggressively go for the steal like a 5th-grader. Riding him hard like he did didn't get the call. What sucks is he probably would've been whistled if there was 14:00 left.

Rutgers was up 3 in the final seconds tonite. Didn't foul. Penn State had 2 looks about as good as Dickinsons', maybe a little better. Missed both. Got a third one that was stripped as the shooter was going into his motion. C'est la vie.

95%? Wow. I would've guessed 80% or so. Interesting.

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

Sure…the point is though, You gotta beat a worthless team just to play someone that may help your resume. Which, I don’t have the bracket right in front of me, could be a Penn State/Michigan etc. that are pretty fringe teams. I don’t know if that kind of win is getting them over the hill if they lose to Purdue.

If they play Wednesday they're locked in to either 11 or 12, so if they win that day they'd get either 5 or 6. That could be one of a host of teams, the only one of that group not appreciably helping the resume being Michigan. Of course, even that could be a psuedo play-in game, depending on some of the other conference tourneys.

I guess the biggest key is, if they lose to Purdue you most likely need to go on at least a 3-game winning streak, which as you said has been elusive to say the least.

[MrTPlush]

11 hours ago, RedStickBrew said:

FYI. I believe there is an ongoing study of the up by 3 points end of game scenarios: play-it-out versus fouling, and the outcomes are about the same either way, the team up 3 wins 94%-95% of the time.

The thing with fouling is you open the door a bit for them to have a chance at a lead. If they make both, and you turn it over on the inbounds pass, any basket by the opposing team is taking the lead. If you play it out, the worst ending is almost surely OT.

It is also easy to say foul...until they pull up at the last moment to be in a 'shooting motion' and then you send them to the line for three free-throws. 

[homer]

I think Ken Pomeroy did a big study on success of fouling or not fouling and it didn't really matter one way or the other. I'll see if I can find it 

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, homer said:

I think Ken Pomeroy did a big study on success of fouling or not fouling and it didn't really matter one way or the other. I'll see if I can find it 

I'm sure there is a level of success/failure both ways, which is why coaches have differing philosophies about it. Some talk about "if you don't practice it, don't do it", which makes some sense looking at yesterday. I have no idea if they practice it or not, but Gard wanted the foul, & McGee needed to go through the ballhandler to the ball & didn't. I suspect he did "foul" him, but it's like crashing for an offensive rebound in the final seconds when down by one.....the whistle just won't blow unless it's super obvious.

[RedStickBrew]

10 hours ago, homer said:

I think Ken Pomeroy did a big study on success of fouling or not fouling and it didn't really matter one way or the other. I'll see if I can find it 

This is the one I saw in regards to fouling

https://bestballstats.com/2022/10/12/foul-up-3-or-defend-analyzing-late-game-strategy/

[Jim French Stepstool]

Apparently Hepburn was walking w/o crutches after the game Sunday, with a slight limp. I guess that would go under the heading of cautiously optimistic. Maybe we'll learn more over the next couple days (but I wouldn't hold my breath).

[CheezWizHed]

On 2/25/2023 at 9:02 PM, MrTPlush said:

That was weird and then the ref decided to take part in the odd altercation…

Actually, I thought the Ref was smart in stepping into it.  First, he shows he isn't going to be intinmidated.  Second, he closes the gap to let him do someting really stupid.  

[Oxy]

Weird half on the offensive end, good enough on the defensive end.

Isaac Lindsey may have saved UW's season if they can pull it out.  8 huge points...although there hasn't been much of a contribution from anybody else on that end. Wahl with a 3 too... if UW has to rely upon IL and TW 3s in the 2nd half I don't like their chances...

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Klesmit has been very good lately.

[Oxy]

MKultra showing out...good lord.  Gotta finish.