Josh Bell to Guardians - 2 years, $33m

[DR28]

Bell is off the board... 2 yrs, $33 M.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Hmm, two year deal to a notoriously cheap organization. I wanted Bell quite a bit and depending on the money involved (and again, it's Cleveland), this seems reasonable.

[DR28]

2 yrs, $33M

[Brock Beauchamp]

Huh. An opt-out on a two year deal, it appears. Who does Bell think he is, Carlos Correa?

[nate82]

That is a lot for Bell though close to what I thought he would get at about $15m annually.  I think he is a better deal at $12-14m than at $15M.

[sveumrules]

Market must have been tepid after he went ice cold with SD down the stretch (combined with a history of streaky performance). MLBTR predicted 4/64.

Must be hoping he can opt out, put up his first ever wire to wire good season in 2023 and try to cash in again next winter, 

[jerichoholicninja]

Seems pretty early in the offseason for him to accept what he's hoping will be a one year deal. Also, isn't Cleveland pretty well set at 1B and DH already?

[DR28]

1 minute ago, jerichoholicninja said:

Seems pretty early in the offseason for him to accept what he's hoping will be a one year deal. Also, isn't Cleveland pretty well set at 1B and DH already?

They arent.... Bell will DH it sounds like with Josh Naylor at 1B... Or could flip, think Bell is a good defender.

[Redd Vencher]

This is basically the deal Rizzo signed last year. This was the most I was willing to do for Bell, but the addition of Winker made it hard to fit him in with the current roster.

[DR28]

3 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

This is basically the deal Rizzo signed last year. This was the most I was willing to do for Bell, but the addition of Winker made it hard to fit him in with the current roster.

We could have signed Bell and traded Tellez.

[monty57]

Steamer projections:

Josh Bell: .257 / .348 / .440 / .788 wRC+ 123 (2 years, $33M)

Rowdy Tellez: .247 / .326 / .486 / .812 wRC+ 123 (2nd of 4 arby years, estimated $3.75M)

Jesse Winker: .250 / .355 / .425 / .780 wRC+ 122 (1 year, $8.25M)

 

Bell's played a little OF, but he's basically a 1B/DH guy. Since Winker appears to be our DH, and Rowdy our 1B, I don't really see that he would have been an improvement over what we already have at a much cheaper salary.

[Outlander]

I would have liked Bell in season last year but think there is a pretty good chance both Tellez and Winker out perform him this year offensively. The Brewers also get both Winker/Tellez for less than the price of Bell.

[Outlander]

17 minutes ago, monty57 said:

Rowdy Tellez: .247 / .326 / .486 / .812 wRC+ 123 (2nd of 4 arby years, estimated $3.75M)

This is 2/3 arbitration years for Tellez, think the projected salary this year is low as well. Your overall point still stands though.

[Robocaller]

I wasn't high on Bell, but that's not a bad contract for Cleveland.

 

[MadThinker88]

The CLE signing of Bell is a direct result of a minority owner being located & approved by MLB during the 2022 season.  Nearly 25% of the club was tied up in escrow due to John Sherman departing to purchase controlling ownership in the KC Royals a few years ago.

I doubt the CLE payroll will get over $100M this season but even a payroll of $85M - $90M is a major step up from the past few years,

As for the opt out after 1 year, that is standard contract practice for the Boras clients.  I'm stunned that CLE even engaged with Boras.  That has been a rare occurrence in the past.

[monty57]

16 hours ago, Outlander said:

This is 2/3 arbitration years for Tellez, think the projected salary this year is low as well. Your overall point still stands though.

Where did you find that? I used Cot's, and they have him with four years of arbitration. That's also where I got the estimated salary.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1N0fXQJkUL2e02XkezJt-64eJv7WB2CAngVKrM_RAHlA/edit#gid=1520401900

[Outlander]

Yeah, I don't know what they are doing there. MLB Trade rumors project him 5.3 million. Cot's even shows his service time at 4.004 so not sure why they would put him as arbitration year 2 of 4. Tellez will be at 5.004 at end of 2023 and 6..004 and free agent at end of 2024.

[MrTPlush]

17 hours ago, DR28 said:

We could have signed Bell and traded Tellez.

The Brewers signing a FA for $35mil to trade the cheaper option they already had on the roster.?

I haven't seen pigs flying recently.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

17 hours ago, DR28 said:

We could have signed Bell and traded Tellez.

Pay a ton more for basically the same player? 

Bell would have made some sense as a bat in the lineup in addition to Tellez, but not in place of.

[StearnsFTW]

Couple thoughts:

-Yeah, signing Bell and trading Rowdy doesn't make much sense to me either.  If Rowdy had big trade value, sure, but he doesn't.

-I would not have been happy if the Brewers signed Bell to this deal without regard to Tellez.  2/33 would be fine, but the opt-out is a killer.  He has a great season (great) and then leaves (not great).  Not a huge fan of one year deals if avoidable.  Not to mention the fact that if he stinks or gets hurt you get to pay him again.  I Hate player options.

 

[monty57]

All players have some degree of "sreakiness," but Bell is extremely streaky. It's a lot of fun when he's hot, and the Nationals parlayed that well last year by getting more in trade than he's worth, but he can really hurt you when he's off.

Given the choice, if two players are going to end up with similar stats, I'd take the guy who has less variance (highs and lows). The Brewers already have too much of that, so even if the contracts were the same, I probably wouldn't trade Rowdy for Bell straight-up.

The Brewers are full of guys who are slightly above average, and Tellez fits into this. Everyone wants to see a big upgrade, but Rowdy and others are good enough players that bringing in an upgrade, whether through free agency or trade, is expensive. As we see here, spending $16.5M/year for a free agent wouldn't really upgrade our team.

[monty57]

59 minutes ago, Outlander said:

Yeah, I don't know what they are doing there. MLB Trade rumors project him 5.3 million. Cot's even shows his service time at 4.004 so not sure why they would put him as arbitration year 2 of 4. Tellez will be at 5.004 at end of 2023 and 6..004 and free agent at end of 2024.

That puts him right on track with the Burnes, Woodruff, Adames group. We're going to see a big outflow of talent, so I can see why the Brewers want to get some of the prospects some experience this year. 

[MrTPlush]

48 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

Couple thoughts:

-Yeah, signing Bell and trading Rowdy doesn't make much sense to me either.  If Rowdy had big trade value, sure, but he doesn't.

-I would not have been happy if the Brewers signed Bell to this deal without regard to Tellez.  2/33 would be fine, but the opt-out is a killer.  He has a great season (great) and then leaves (not great).  Not a huge fan of one year deals if avoidable.  Not to mention the fact that if he stinks or gets hurt you get to pay him again.  I Hate player options.

 

Him opting out would have been great. Barring a bit of a miracle 2024-2025 probably won't be pretty anyway. If he went out there and mashed so well he opted it, that would have been exactly what we needed. 

But that is hypothetical, and he may not hit much better than Tellez and could be dead weight for multiple years at a high cost if he is worse.