2023 Projections Thread

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

I’m really not buying the “much tougher schedule” argument when 2 of the Brewers series were against the Giants who are only over .500 because of winning 5 of 7 against the Brewers. The Cardinals had several difficult series in April too, including Atlanta, the Dodgers (with whom they are now finished for the year,) and Blue Jays. 
 

I also factor in that the Cardinals started May 0-5 to finish a stretch of losing something like 11 of 12 to fall to 10-24 and 10 games out of first place. Since then they have gone 14-8 and have carved that deficit to 5.5 games. 
 
If the Cardinals can pick up 3.5 games over the Brewers in about 3 weeks, I don’t think they need to win 17 in a row, or anything close to that, to make up 5.5 games over 4 months. 
 

I don’t find the injuries and underperformance argument very persuasive either. I guess I would agree that if all of the injured Brewers  return, nobody else is injured, and all of the players who have underperformed improve their performance, while none of the players who have performed well slide back, the Brewers will be the favorites to win the division. We might disagree about the likelihood of all of those things falling into place  

But, I also recognize that a lot of other teams (including the Cardinals) have had injuries and underperforming players too. 

I can see that some Brewers homers see refusing to declare the Cardinals dead means that I think that they are unbeatable, or shoo-ins to win the division, or (the most laughable) a closet Cardinal fan. I just think past experience, including the last two seasons, tells me that harping on the Cardinals flaws is like whistling past the graveyard. 
 

Lol. No one is saying the Cardinals are dead. Just that they're not the favorites to win the division at this point and that the Brewers, for all their flaws, are. Which is backed up by the projections. (I don't think anyone is willing to consider the Brewers a shoe-in by any stretch). 

As Wiguy points out, the Cardinals have factually had less injuries than the Brewers and an easier schedule to this point. Their offense is performing right in line with expectations and yet they've still been mediocre to bad and are 7 games behind the Brewers in the loss column. 

You consistently going out of your way to qualify these simple facts and twist them in favor of the Cardinals is what's getting others to wonder/joke about your leanings.

[BruisedCrew]

Didn’t take you long to pull out the LOL. You really can’t resist that, can you?

The easier schedule point has not been made factually. Series against teams over .500 in one month is hardly a conclusive argument. I think that for the season to date the teams’ schedules have been equal enough to not be significant. 

Who has had more injuries by number or by days spent on the IL isn’t all that meaningful by itself either, especially when the discussion is about future projections. It may be relevant for making excuses, but unless there are high quality players who can be expected to return and perform at a high level, they are irrelevant. Which brings me back to my original point of how well projection sites can anticipate the impact of returning players. 

When you or anyone else tries to conclude that I am a Cardinals fan, they lose a lot of credibility with me. It means you are cherry picking certain comments and ignoring hundreds of others. 

As a point of fact, I have been a Brewers fan for twice as long as you have been alive, and I take that into account when I evaluate your comments. 
 

 

[wiguy94]

20 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

When you or anyone else tries to conclude that I am a Cardinals fan, they lose a lot of credibility with me. It means you are cherry picking certain comments and ignoring hundreds of others. 

My comment saying you're a secret Cardinal fan was obviously a joke. You have 5000 comments on this site. Of course you're not a Cardinal fan. However, your tone when talking about the Brewers and Cardinals this year have not been very even. You'd think their records were reversed with how negative about the Brewers and positive about the Cardinals you have been.

We don't need you to tell us how good the Cardinals actually are when someone brings up how bad they have been. 

[Brewcrew82]

37 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Didn’t take you long to pull out the LOL. You really can’t resist that, can you?

The easier schedule point has not been made factually. Series against teams over .500 in one month is hardly a conclusive argument. 

Who has had more injuries by number or by days spent on the IL isn’t all that meaningful by itself either, especially when the discussion is about future projections. It may be relevant for making excuses, but unless there are high quality players who can be expected to return and perform at a high level, they are irrelevant. Which brings me back to my original point of how well projection sites can anticipate the impact of returning players. 

When you or anyone else tries to conclude that I am a Cardinals fan, they lose a lot of credibility with me. It means you are cherry picking certain comments and ignoring hundreds of others. 

As a point of fact, I have been a Brewers fan for twice as long as you have been alive, and Intake that into account when I evaluate your comments. 
 

 

And I take that into account too when I see you swiftly dismiss ERA-, WPA, etc. All the while spinning everything in favor of the Cardinals and against the Brewers despite the Brewers currently being the consensus division favorites by the models. 

I may not have your quantity of years, but I've lived and died with the Brewers all the same. 

FWIW, like Wiguy I don't actually question whether you're a Brewers fan....It's just very unusual the lengths you'll go to defend the Cardinals and attack the Brewers sometimes. 

[wiguy94]

5 hours ago, SF70 said:

honestly, with MKE’s starter injuries, I think the Cardinals have the advantage there too until Woodruff is back which is looking more like late July now.

You would seriously take Mikolas, Montgomery, Wainwright, Flaherty, Liberatore over Burnes, Peralta, Houser, Rea, Teheran?? 

I'd argue that Burnes, Peralta, Houser would all be the best SP on the Cardinals and that Rea and Teheran are both just as good as 40 year old Wainwright. 

Mikolas 5.06 xERA, Montgomery 4.55 xERA, Flaherty 4.58 xERA, Wainwright 6.98 xERA, Liberatore 6.11 xERA 

Burnes 3.80 xERA, Peralta 4.13 xERA, Houser 3.46 xERA, Rea 4.46 xERA, Teheran 3.64 xERA 

All 5 of the Brewers xERA are better than any of the Cardinals xERA (and yes I know Teheran, Houser, Wainwright, Liberatore are still super small sample size)

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

You would seriously take Mikolas, Montgomery, Wainwright, Flaherty, Liberatore over Burnes, Peralta, Houser, Rea, Teheran?? 

I'd argue that Burnes, Peralta, Houser would all be the best SP on the Cardinals and that Rea and Teheran are both just as good as 40 year old Wainwright. 

Mikolas 5.06 xERA, Montgomery 4.55 xERA, Flaherty 4.58 xERA, Wainwright 6.98 xERA, Liberatore 6.11 xERA 

Burnes 3.80 xERA, Peralta 4.13 xERA, Houser 3.46 xERA, Rea 4.46 xERA, Teheran 3.64 xERA 

All 5 of the Brewers xERA are better than any of the Cardinals xERA (and yes I know Teheran, Houser, Wainwright, Liberatore are still super small sample size)

Yeah. I don't see how anyone could reasonably draw the conclusion that the Cardinals are better positioned with their SP right now. The evidence just isn't there.

ERA isn't a great stat, but despite everything going wrong in their rotation the Brewers are currently 10th in the majors and the Cardinals are 23rd. I think that pretty well encapsulates things. And the upside for the Brewers with Burnes, Peralta, and eventually Woodruff is so much higher. 

Brewers right now are tentative favorites followed fairly closely by the Cardinals/Cubs, and behind them the Pirates and Reds. A mediocre division for sure. Still the Brewers can't continue their May play and expect to win the division. Thankfully, due to the extent of injuries and underperformance combined with their current position, there's good reason to think that they won't. 

[BruisedCrew]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

And I take that into account too when I see you swiftly dismiss ERA-, WPA, etc. All the while spinning everything in favor of the Cardinals and against the Brewers despite the Brewers currently being the consensus division favorites by the models. 

I may not have your quantity of years, but I've lived and died with the Brewers all the same. 

FWIW, like Wiguy I don't actually question whether you're a Brewers fan....It's just very unusual the lengths you'll go to defend the Cardinals and attack the Brewers sometimes. 

I don’t see my comments criticizing the Brewers and comparing them to the Cardinals as “defending” the Cardinals or “attacking “ the Brewers.  I see them as a counterbalance to some of the extreme homerism that appears on this board. 

I don’t “swiftly dismiss” some of these advanced stats, but I do question how predictive they are of what’s going to happen in the last 4 months of the season. Several of the Cardinals SP are performing significantly worse than they have in their careers and how they performed as recently as last season. I don’t assume that that will continue and that the only way for the Cardinals to improve their pitching is through acquisitions. Maybe my view of the Cardinals pitchers is skewed by how I see them shut down the Brewers.

The focus on the Cardinals SP problems doesn’t address the question of whether whatever advantage the Brewers have in that department might be more than offset over the course of the season by the Cardinals clearly superior offense. 
 

[wiguy94]

13 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Several of the Cardinals SP are performing significantly worse than they have in their careers and how they performed as recently as last season.
 

Who are the pitchers that performing significantly worse than they have in the recent past?

Mikolas in 2022 had an 85 ERA-, 100 FIP-, 95 xFIP- (mostly just greatly overperformed his peripherals last season) compared to 101 ERA-, 101 FIP-, 101 xFIP-. He's also 34 so a slight drop off wouldn't at all be surprising.

Flaherty has struggled with injuries so hasn't pitched much the last few years but last year he had a 109 ERA-, 127 FIP-, 123 xFIP- compared to 115 ERA-, 109 FIP-, 107 xFIP- this season. Performing pretty much on par with how he did last season.

Montgomery had a 90 ERA-, 91 FIP-, 87 xFIP- last year and has a 107 ERA-, 93 FIP-, 94 xFIP-. His ERA will probably stabilize as the year goes on but peripherals are largely the same.

Wainwright is 40 and has lost has career battery mate so him having huge issues this year is not at all surprising. Especially considering he was terrible to close out last season. Has an ERA over 6 in his last 11 starts dating back to last season.

Now if you want to talk about pitchers wildly underperforming relative to past results, Burnes and Peralta are far better examples.

[wiguy94]

I think it's also fair to ask if this Cardinals team is as good as last years team.

The pitching is clearly worse. No Yadi, Mikolas and Wainwright are each a year older, Quintana left in FA. 

The offense might be worse. Neither Goldschmidt nor Arenado are replicating their career offensive peaks last season. 

The defense is substantially worse. Loss of Bader and Yadi. Incorporating Gorman, Burleson, Yepez, Walker into the lineup who are all poor defenders. Contreras major drop off at C.

The Cardinals certainly have a great offensive team but their roster has substantial holes as well and that's not being taken into consideration enough.

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I think it's also fair to ask if this Cardinals team is as good as last years team.

The pitching is clearly worse. No Yadi, Mikolas and Wainwright are each a year older, Quintana left in FA. 

The offense might be worse. Neither Goldschmidt nor Arenado are replicating their career offensive peaks last season. 

The defense is substantially worse. Loss of Bader and Yadi. Incorporating Gorman, Burleson, Yepez, Walker into the lineup who are all poor defenders. Contreras major drop off at C.

The Cardinals certainly have a great offensive team but their roster has substantial holes as well and that's not being taken into consideration enough.

Just for some context on how bad this Cardinals defense has been in comparison to last season.

DRS - 67 in 2022 (4th), currently -1 in 2023 (19th)

UZR/150 - 6.3 in 2022 (2nd), currently -2.0 in 2023 (21st)

Framing - -3.4 in 2022 (18th), currently -1.3 in 2023  (18th)

OAA - 26 in 2022 (4th), currently -1 in 2023 (17th)

Defensive value - 33.9 in 2022 (3rd), currently 3.4 in 2023 (13th)

They've dropped off from an elite defense to a below average defense. That's a huge development for a team with a starting rotation that isn't great at striking hitters out.

 

[SF70]

11 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

You would seriously take Mikolas, Montgomery, Wainwright, Flaherty, Liberatore over Burnes, Peralta, Houser, Rea, Teheran?? 

I'd argue that Burnes, Peralta, Houser would all be the best SP on the Cardinals and that Rea and Teheran are both just as good as 40 year old Wainwright. 

Mikolas 5.06 xERA, Montgomery 4.55 xERA, Flaherty 4.58 xERA, Wainwright 6.98 xERA, Liberatore 6.11 xERA 

Burnes 3.80 xERA, Peralta 4.13 xERA, Houser 3.46 xERA, Rea 4.46 xERA, Teheran 3.64 xERA 

All 5 of the Brewers xERA are better than any of the Cardinals xERA (and yes I know Teheran, Houser, Wainwright, Liberatore are still super small sample size)

Ok, maybe St Louis’s rotation isn’t better right now, but I don’t see much difference between rotations — not with Teheran and Rea in it. 

I like MKE’s bullpen a little better, so I’d give a slight edge in pitching overall to MKE.

I also give MKE an edge defensively, but not as big if the team options Turang and or Wiemer. Urias at second is tolerable, but if he’s at 3B, the D takes a big hit.

The gap offensively between teams is larger than the Grand Canyon. Whatever edge MKE had over StL in pitching & defense is more than wiped out by the Cardinals edge in offense.

The potential saving grace is the 5+ game lead MKE has currently. Hopefully it will be enough of a cushion for them to hold on until they get their wounded back.

[SF70]

7 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Just for some context on how bad this Cardinals defense has been in comparison to last season.

DRS - 67 in 2022 (4th), currently -1 in 2023 (19th)

UZR/150 - 6.3 in 2022 (2nd), currently -2.0 in 2023 (21st)

Framing - -3.4 in 2022 (18th), currently -1.3 in 2023  (18th)

OAA - 26 in 2022 (4th), currently -1 in 2023 (17th)

Defensive value - 33.9 in 2022 (3rd), currently 3.4 in 2023 (13th)

They've dropped off from an elite defense to a below average defense. That's a huge development for a team with a starting rotation that isn't great at striking hitters out.

 

Walker’s abhorrent defense in RF really hurt their defensive numbers before he was optioned. DeJong over Edman at SS helps and when Carlson and O’Neil return from the IL they can get Burleson and his bad D out of the OF.

The StL D at full strength is actually good.

[wiguy94]

2 hours ago, SF70 said:

Walker’s abhorrent defense in RF really hurt their defensive numbers before he was optioned. DeJong over Edman at SS helps and when Carlson and O’Neil return from the IL they can get Burleson and his bad D out of the OF.

The StL D at full strength is actually good.

Actually good is quite the overstatement. 

[Brewcrew82]

16 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

I don’t see my comments criticizing the Brewers and comparing them to the Cardinals as “defending” the Cardinals or “attacking “ the Brewers.  I see them as a counterbalance to some of the extreme homerism that appears on this board. 

I don’t “swiftly dismiss” some of these advanced stats, but I do question how predictive they are of what’s going to happen in the last 4 months of the season. Several of the Cardinals SP are performing significantly worse than they have in their careers and how they performed as recently as last season. I don’t assume that that will continue and that the only way for the Cardinals to improve their pitching is through acquisitions. Maybe my view of the Cardinals pitchers is skewed by how I see them shut down the Brewers.

The focus on the Cardinals SP problems doesn’t address the question of whether whatever advantage the Brewers have in that department might be more than offset over the course of the season by the Cardinals clearly superior offense. 
 

"Extreme homerism"

First of all, this is a Brewers fan site. That stuff does tend to appear from time to time. 

Second of all, how is simply pointing out the models viewing the Brewers as division favorites extreme homerism? That's as neutral and objective as it gets...

Finally, what's also not objective is saying the Cardinals' rotation is underperforming close to the extent the Brewers is, as Wiguy has pointed out to you. That's once again just pro-Cardinals spin. 

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

"Extreme homerism"

First of all, this is a Brewers fan site. That stuff does tend to appear from time to time. 

Second of all, how is simply pointing out the models viewing the Brewers as division favorites extreme homerism? That's as neutral and objective as it gets...

Finally, what's also not objective is saying the Cardinals' rotation is underperforming close to the extent the Brewers is, as Wiguy has pointed out to you. That's once again just pro-Cardinals spin. 

I never questioned the projection models showing the Brewers as division favorites, but I did question some of the percentages, specifically those that show the Brewers with a 70-75% probability of winning the division. That’s what prompted my comment that I think that a bet on the Cardinals winning the division at 3-1 would be a better bet than one on the Brewers at 1-3. A subsequent post showing current Vegas odds backs me up on that. 
 

Because of yesterday’s exchange I looked more closely at the FanGraphs projections for the rest of the season, and they also support my points. They show the Cardinals going 56-50 the rest of the way to finish 80-82 with the Brewers finishing 82-80. So, they consider the Brewers a very slight favorite. I don’t think they would agree with your opinion that the Cardinals would need to win something like 17 in a row to come out on top. 
 

The FG projections also show the Cardinals allowing 4.54 runs per game the rest of the way to the Brewers 4.56 RAPG. The individual projections for the Cardinals SP show virtually all of them having ERA’s a half a point or more lower for the rest of the season. They seem to agree with my general expectation, which is admittedly not founded on advanced metrics, that the Cardinals pitching will be better the rest of the way than it was for the first month or so. I don’t really care how much of this is attributable to the starting rotation, but the assumption of some Brewers fans that the Brewers pitching is going to be significantly better than the Cardinals is not shared by FanGaraphs. 
 

The FG projections also expect the Cardinals to continue to score more runs than the Brewers (4.80 RPG to 4.54).
 

My read on this is that Fan Graphs is doing a better job (or at least one that seems more accurate to me) than the ones that show the Brewers with a significantly higher probability of winning the division. 

You can say all you want that my opinions are “just Pro Cardinal spin”, but I think there is factual support for them. 
 

 

[sveumrules]

On 5/8/2023 at 8:14 AM, sveumrules said:

BPro
MIL: 87 W | 75% Div
CHI: 78 W | 9% Div 
STL: 77 W | 9% Div 
PIT: 76 W | 6% Div

538
MIL: 88 W | 61% Div  
CHI: 80 W | 18% Div 
PIT: 78 W | 12% Div 
STL: 75 W | 7% Div

FanGraphs
MIL: 86 W | 57% Div 
CHI: 80 W | 17% Div 
PIT: 79 W | 13% Div
STL: 79 W | 13% Div 

Above is how the computers saw the division race back on May 8th. Five weeks later over 40% of the season is now in the books, and the Brewers are in the midst of their second six game losing streak of the season with current division leader Pittsburgh on tap. Here's how things have moved in the interim...

BPro
MIL: 85 W | 78% Div
CHI: 77 W | 12% Div
PIT: 75 W | 5% Div
STL: 75 W | 4% Div
CIN: 73 W | 2% Div

538
MIL: 82 W | 54% Div
CHI: 77 W | 22% Div
PIT: 76 W | 17% Div
CIN: 76 W | 15% Div
STL: 73 W | 8% Div

FanGraphs
MIL: 82 W | 47% Div 
PIT: 78 W | 18% Div
CHI: 77 W | 15% Div 
STL: 77 W | 12% Div 
CIN: 76 W | 8% Div
 

[Brewcrew82]

38 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Above is how the computers saw the division race back on May 8th. Five weeks later over 40% of the season is now in the books, and the Brewers are in the midst of their second six game losing streak of the season with current division leader Pittsburgh on tap. Here's how things have moved in the interim...

BPro
MIL: 85 W | 78% Div
CHI: 77 W | 12% Div
PIT: 75 W | 5% Div
STL: 75 W | 4% Div
CIN: 73 W | 2% Div

538
MIL: 82 W | 54% Div
CHI: 77 W | 22% Div
PIT: 76 W | 17% Div
CIN: 76 W | 15% Div
STL: 73 W | 8% Div

FanGraphs
MIL: 82 W | 47% Div 
PIT: 78 W | 18% Div
CHI: 77 W | 15% Div 
STL: 77 W | 12% Div 
CIN: 76 W | 8% Div
 

Yikes. Would be fun if we decided to win some games instead of losing 6 straight.

[sveumrules]

With the next six against the Reds,  thought it might be interesting to see how the projections move around before & after.

So here are current NL Central division odds…

FanGraphs
MIL: 48.8%
CIN: 36.5%

Five Thirty Eight
MIL: 49%
CIN: 20%

Baseball Prospectus
MIL: 59.4%
CIN: 28.0%

[BruisedCrew]

I think 538 is out of the sports projection business. Their projections were last updated on June 21. 

[sveumrules]

19 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

I think 538 is out of the sports projection business. Their projections were last updated on June 21. 

Bummer, didn’t even notice the header on their page.

Guess it should have been obvious when they still had the Cubs at 21% for the Division

[BruisedCrew]

Fangraphs projects the Brewers to finish with a record of 84-78 and the Reds at 82-80. Given the nature of these projections that amounts to a virtual tossup. 
 

 

[Brewcrew82]

29 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Fangraphs projects the Brewers to finish with a record of 84-78 and the Reds at 82-80. Given the nature of these projections that amounts to a virtual tossup. 
 

 

Not exactly. It amounts to 54.5% vs. 30.3%. Close for sure, but Brewers still the favorite they have been the whole season.

[KeithStone53151]

19 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Not exactly. It amounts to 54.5% vs. 30.3%.

Considering the nature of projections, and the fact that FG had them at around 2% at the end of May, I'm concerned about the trajectory and find zero comfort in 54 vs 30% that FG is noting currently.

[Brewcrew82]

17 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Considering the nature of projections, and the fact that FG had them at around 2% at the end of May, I'm concerned about the trajectory and find zero comfort in 54 vs 30% that FG is noting currently.

I’m not saying I’m not concerned about the Reds or that we shouldn’t be, because I am and we should. But, despite their white hot streak and their current one game divisional lead on the Brewers, fangraphs still puts them about 20% back of the Brewers and less likely than not to make the playoffs. Which tells you they’re not sold on the Reds being as good as they’ve played for the last month plus. Meanwhile, the Brewers are right about where they have been most of the year and are more likely than not to win the division and make the postseason.

[BruisedCrew]

13 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I’m not saying I’m not concerned about the Reds or that we shouldn’t be, because I am and we should. But, despite their white hot streak and their current one game divisional lead on the Brewers, fangraphs still puts them about 20% back of the Brewers and less likely than not to make the playoffs. Which tells you they’re not sold on the Reds being as good as they’ve played for the last month plus. Meanwhile, the Brewers are right about where they have been most of the year and are more likely than not to win the division and make the postseason.

That all begs the question of how exactly those projections grind through individual projections to reach a conclusion about teams. 

I tend to look at them for entertainment value but not like actual mathematical probabilities.

i question how well those projections work on teams that have so many players with not much of a MLB track record and when teams have injured players whose return is uncertain. 

If we’re going to take these projections as an accurate reflection of probabilities, we have to accept that the Cardinals still have a 5% chance to win the division. Do you believe that?