2023 Projections Thread

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, BruisedCrew said:

That all begs the question of how exactly those projections grind through individual projections to reach a conclusion about teams. 

I tend to look at them for entertainment value but not like actual mathematical probabilities.

i question how well those projections work on teams that have so many players with not much of a MLB track record and when teams have injured players whose return is uncertain. 

If we’re going to take these projections as an accurate reflection of probabilities, we have to accept that the Cardinals still have a 5% chance to win the division. Do you believe that?

I believe that, of 100 simulations, the Cardinals end up winning the division 5 times out of 100. Which is what I think the point of the projections are. 

[rickh150]

18 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I believe that, of 100 simulations, the Cardinals end up winning the division 5 times out of 100. Which is what I think the point of the projections are. 

More like 4% Division and 1% 3rd Wild Card

 

[BruisedCrew]

 

40 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I believe that, of 100 simulations, the Cardinals end up winning the division 5 times out of 100. Which is what I think the point of the projections are. 

But again, for me it all begs the question of what those simulations are based on. For example, how do they weight recent performance relative to the overall performance to date. 
 

If you just take a snapshot of the current standings you see the Reds 1 game ahead of the Brewers. But how do you factor in that the Reds, who added McLean in May, and DeLaCruz and Votto in June have gained 9 games in the last 6 weeks or so on the Brewers, who have been treading water since their quick start in April?

The Fangraphs projection is that the Brewers will continue to tread water while the Reds will cool considerably from their pace of the last month, with their offense cooling off and their pitching getting worse than it’s been. They have the Reds finishing 32-39, which would be a pretty dramatic comedown from their last month. 

My old fashioned gut reaction is that the NL Central is going to be a two team race and that at this point it looks to me like a tossup. That might change in the next 2 weeks as the Brewers play the Reds, Braves, and Phillies exclusively in their next 15 games. 

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

But again, for me it all begs the question of what those simulations are based on.

FanGraphs uses a 50/50 split of Steamer and ZiPS projections for each player along with manually curated depth charts for future playing time.

This is what they have for the Brewers currently, for instance. From there you can click around and see other teams.

This Jeff Sullivan article from before he got hired by the Rays does a good job of looking at how projections compare to actual standings and Pythagorean standings when it comes to predicting the second half.

The whole thing is worth a read, but the TL/DR version is…

If you want to know what’s going to happen in the second half, you need to understand it’s impossible to predict. But if you want to give yourself even a chance, you should place by far the most weight on the updated team projections. I know it’s tempting to believe in a team’s actual to-date results, but they don’t mean quite as much as you’d presume. The projections are able to keep a cooler head.

[Brewcrew82]

2 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

 

But again, for me it all begs the question of what those simulations are based on. For example, how do they weight recent performance relative to the overall performance to date. 
 

If you just take a snapshot of the current standings you see the Reds 1 game ahead of the Brewers. But how do you factor in that the Reds, who added McLean in May, and DeLaCruz and Votto in June have gained 9 games in the last 6 weeks or so on the Brewers, who have been treading water since their quick start in April?

The Fangraphs projection is that the Brewers will continue to tread water while the Reds will cool considerably from their pace of the last month, with their offense cooling off and their pitching getting worse than it’s been. They have the Reds finishing 32-39, which would be a pretty dramatic comedown from their last month. 

My old fashioned gut reaction is that the NL Central is going to be a two team race and that at this point it looks to me like a tossup. That might change in the next 2 weeks as the Brewers play the Reds, Braves, and Phillies exclusively in their next 15 games. 

They take into account McLean, De La Cruz, and Votto. But they also take into account the fact that those guys, among several others, are unlikely to replicate that production over the remainder of the season.

It's more forward-looking. 

[BruisedCrew]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

FanGraphs uses a 50/50 split of Steamer and ZiPS projections for each player along with manually curated depth charts for future playing time.

This is what they have for the Brewers currently, for instance. From there you can click around and see other teams.

This Jeff Sullivan article from before he got hired by the Rays does a good job of looking at how projections compare to actual standings and Pythagorean standings when it comes to predicting the second half.

The whole thing is worth a read, but the TL/DR version is…

If you want to know what’s going to happen in the second half, you need to understand it’s impossible to predict. But if you want to give yourself even a chance, you should place by far the most weight on the updated team projections. I know it’s tempting to believe in a team’s actual to-date results, but they don’t mean quite as much as you’d presume. The projections are able to keep a cooler head.

I think the most relevant words here are “it’s impossible to predict”. Which is why I look at those projections for entertainment more than any kind of precise measure of the actual probability of a particular outcome.

When you pile projections about how much certain players are going to play on top of projections on how they are going to perform and try to use all,of those projections about individual players to estimate how many games their team is going to win, the result is going to be far from precise. 

It shouldn’t take much for the Fangraphs projections to be better predictors than fist half winning percentage or first half Pythagorean. Those numbers would not reflect any significant events that took place in the first half such as injuries or player additions that caused the team to be significantly better or worse at the halfway point than it was early in the season. Or, as is true with the Reds and Brewers one team starts strong and then flounders while the other comes on strong after a slow start.

When you put together projections on top of projections I’m not sure a projection of 84 wins is significantly different than one of 82 wins. So, I’m going to treat it like a tossup until something happens that changes my mind. 

Maybe I’m affected by the memory of last season when, if I recall, the Brewers chances of making the playoffs were significantly higher than 54%. 
 

 

[BruisedCrew]

2 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

They take into account McLean, De La Cruz, and Votto. But they also take into account the fact that those guys, among several others, are unlikely to replicate that production over the remainder of the season.

It's more forward-looking. 

Since you’re touting these projections, I assume that means that you wouldn’t consider someone to be a pessimist if he thinks that the Brewers are going to continue to play around .500 for the rest of the season. 

[Brewcrew82]

20 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Since you’re touting these projections, I assume that means that you wouldn’t consider someone to be a pessimist if he thinks that the Brewers are going to continue to play around .500 for the rest of the season. 

No. I wouldn't. 

[sveumrules]

On 7/7/2023 at 4:00 PM, sveumrules said:

Division Odds on 7/7 before the six games vs Reds…

FanGraphs
MIL: 48.8%
CIN: 36.5%

Baseball Prospectus
MIL: 59.4%
CIN: 28.0%

Division Odds after going 5-1 in those six games vs Reds…

FanGraphs
MIL: 72.0%
CIN: 16.2%

Baseball Prospectus
MIL: 77.2%
CIN: 11.9%

[sveumrules]

With about seven weeks to go and the Brewers kicking off a tough stretch of games leading into the Cubs series thought I'd take a snapshot of where things stand in the NL race as of now. Format is Team (FanGraphs Playoff% | BPro Playoff%)...

ATL (100% | 100%)
LAD (100% | 100%)

PHI (85.2% | 86.7%)
MIL (84.4% | 80.4%)

CHI (54.5% | 68.9%)
SFG (61.6% | 56.9%)
MIA (54.0% | 43.5%)

SDP (17.7% | 35.9%)
CIN (24.4% | 14.9%)
ARI (16.5% | 10.5%)
 

 

[sveumrules]

Here’s how things have shifted for the non ATL/LAD teams over the last couple weeks as we head into the Cubs series, same format as post above…

PHI (93.9% | 87.9%)
MIL (97.0% | 75.5%)

CHI (65.4% | 61.8%)
SFG (46.0% | 58.1%)

ARI (56.2% | 27.4%)
MIA (17.5% | 35.0%)
CIN (21.0% | 17.4%)
SDP (2.7% | 36.0%)

Interesting to see the divergence on some of the teams even with only five weeks left to go.

As a whole the FanGraphs percentages in column one feel a little more on the nose to me, especially with regards to the Brewers, DBacks, Marlins and Padres odds.

As it pertains to NLC division odds specifically they have it…

MIL (83.6% | 54.6%)
CHI (15.4% | 39.6%)
CIN (1.0% | 5.7%)

Feel like the FG odds are closer here too. Cubs essentially need to go 5-1 head to head in order to close the gap and that seems a lot closer to a 15.4% chance than a 39.6% one.

[BruisedCrew]

In 4 days the Fangraphs projection for the Brewers winning the division has dropped from 89% to 67%. They still show the Brewers with a 97% chance of making the playoffs. 

[sveumrules]

Postseason field is set, so here are the World Series Odds for each team from FanGraphs & BPro...

FG: ATL (28.6%) | HOU (16.8%) | LAD (12.9%) | TBR (7.1%) | PHI (6.8%) | BAL (5.2%) | MIL (5.0%) | TOR (5.0%) | MIN (4.5%) | TEX (3.8%) | ARI (2.8%) | MIA (1.4%)

BPro: ATL (18.2%) | HOU (16.2%) | LAD (15.9%) | BAL (15.9%) | MIN (6.2%) | MIL (5.3%) | TBR (4.8%) | MIA (4.3%) | PHI (4.2%) | TOR (4.1%) | ARI (2.7%) | TEX (2.2%)

Some interesting divergences between the two systems.

Both have ATL favored, though FG has their odds 10.4% higher.

FG seems to like the NL more in general with a 57.5% to 42.5% split, though most of that difference is accounted for by ATL.

Other biggest split is BAL (5.2% vs 15.9%).