Rumor: Heyman discusses the likelihood of trading Burnes

[BlightyBrew]

Jordan Westburg from BAL is someone I'd try to get.  I doubt the Orioles would deal him.  

[brewmann04]

I think Willy is going before Burnes at this point

[sveumrules]

10 minutes ago, brewmann04 said:

I think Willy is going before Burnes at this point

Adames currently has a 78 wRC+, if he keeps not hitting like that I don’t think there will be a ton of demand.

The Dodgers are the only contender who have gotten worse SS production than the Brewers to this point, so might be tough to get a bidding war going when SS isn’t a pressing need for the majority of contenders.

[nate82]

5 hours ago, BlightyBrew said:

Jordan Westburg from BAL is someone I'd try to get.  I doubt the Orioles would deal him.  

Westburg is a high K type of a hitter so expect 200+ K's a season from him.  He is more of a power hitter and probably is closer to what Tellez is right now.  I think Tellez is basically the ceiling for Westburg. 

[BlightyBrew]

16 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Westburg is a high K type of a hitter so expect 200+ K's a season from him.  He is more of a power hitter and probably is closer to what Tellez is right now.  I think Tellez is basically the ceiling for Westburg. 

I agree his K rate is concern but his K rate is slightly down this year in AAA Norfolk.  Average 1K for 4 AB.  Tellez right now is 1K for every 3.5AB. 

I think He will have more power and ability to hit 2Bs then Tellez.

To be fair its only his 3rd season in professional ball.   Last year Baltimore move him through the system pretty quick. 

I'm not sure I would agree that his ceiling is what Tellez is but it was just a thought.

  

 

[nate82]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Adames currently has a 78 wRC+, if he keeps not hitting like that I don’t think there will be a ton of demand.

The Dodgers are the only contender who have gotten worse SS production than the Brewers to this point, so might be tough to get a bidding war going when SS isn’t a pressing need for the majority of contenders.

The only other SS on the market would be Tim Anderson and he isn't having all that great of a season either.  If the Brewers and White Sox continue to play poorly and sink then Anderson and Adames will be the 1a and 1b options at SS.  Maybe the Tigers will put Baez out there but they would have to eat part of his salary to trade him. 

While Adames has been hitting poorly I think there is enough that he is hitting into more bad luck and he should turn it around.  One interesting thing on Adames is that he is seeing more breaking and off speed pitches this year.  Adames is only seeing 51% of the pitches as fastballs compared to about 54% career.  Also his K% is down and his BB% are up this year.  Maybe he isn't being aggressive enough at the plate?  Adames is an enigma right now he should be hitting better than he is. 

[nate82]

51 minutes ago, BlightyBrew said:

I agree his K rate is concern but his K rate is slightly down this year in AAA Norfolk.  Average 1K for 4 AB.  Tellez right now is 1K for every 3.5AB. 

I think He will have more power and ability to hit 2Bs then Tellez.

To be fair its only his 3rd season in professional ball.   Last year Baltimore move him through the system pretty quick. 

I'm not sure I would agree that his ceiling is what Tellez is but it was just a thought.

  

 

That is in AAA and you want to use PA's and not AB's otherwise you are subtracting a positive outcome for a hitter walk or HBP which doesn't record an AB. 

Also you would expect the K rate to increase in MLB versus in AAA.  Tellez had a better K% in AAA than Westburg does.  Their career stats in the minors are also very similar.

[nate82]

7 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

The Rays aren't  trading Peralta for Manzardo alone I dont think, never mind for extra parts too, especially not the way his secondary stuff has been this season for a real quality hitter who is MLB ready

I think the Rays would and it is because Peralta is at such an affordable price tag for the next few years.  It means they can deal Glasnow in the off season. 

[BlightyBrew]

53 minutes ago, nate82 said:

That is in AAA and you want to use PA's and not AB's otherwise you are subtracting a positive outcome for a hitter walk or HBP which doesn't record an AB. 

Also you would expect the K rate to increase in MLB versus in AAA.  Tellez had a better K% in AAA than Westburg does.  Their career stats in the minors are also very similar.

That's a good point on the PA.  I was just using a rough calc.

I'm not sure right now.  What I was hoping is that with a little more time in AAA he might improve the K rate.  Like I said, he has slightly improved it.  I know its not much but it is slightly better.  I was basing this that he has been fast tracked to AAA since being drafted. and a full season at AAA might improve.

I was suggesting that getting Westburg would be a piece for this season more of next year or 25.  

I'm probably biased, because I do like his makeup, but I think he might be an above average 3B in the MLB and the Crew can use some options for a 3B solution to the MLB roster.

[nate82]

Instead of Burnes and Urias to the Orioles maybe just Peralta to the Orioles.  Something like Mayo (1B), Norby (2B) and comp balance pick (63). 

I think that is something the Orioles would be extremely interested in.  Peralta is signed to a very team friendly deal and the Orioles are a cheap organization.  So trading for someone like Peralta probably makes more sense than trading for someone like Burnes. 

[BlightyBrew]

9 hours ago, nate82 said:

Instead of Burnes and Urias to the Orioles maybe just Peralta to the Orioles.  Something like Mayo (1B), Norby (2B) and comp balance pick (63). 

I think that is something the Orioles would be extremely interested in.  Peralta is signed to a very team friendly deal and the Orioles are a cheap organization.  So trading for someone like Peralta probably makes more sense than trading for someone like Burnes. 

Thats a good idea but if you through in Westburg you have yourself a deal. 😀

[jay87shot]

The Os have tons of bats that would make sense for us and some interesting 2nd tier pitching. They do have a bunch of money to spend so I doubt that is a huge deterrence. 

For Burnes I'd probably want Grayson Rodriguez still. Say Rodriguez, Westburg, and DL Hall or Coby Mayo

Peralta for Westburg, Coby Mayo or DL Hall, and Cade Povich.

 

[nate82]

1 minute ago, jay87shot said:

The Os have tons of bats that would make sense for us and some interesting 2nd tier pitching. They do have a bunch of money to spend so I doubt that is a huge deterrence. 

For Burnes I'd probably want Grayson Rodriguez still. Say Rodriguez, Westburg, and DL Hall or Coby Mayo

Peralta for Westburg, Coby Mayo or DL Hall, and Cade Povich.

 

The O's since trading Machado and Schoop away have been extremely cheap.  They didn't spend at all this past off season.  I don't see them adding much if any salary this deadline and if they do add it will be someone like Peralta.  They will be seeking players who don't have rather large salaries so that excludes Burnes.

Yuck on DL Hall.  At best he looks to be a reliever and probably just a AAAA one at that.  Hall has about a 6 ERA in MLB and it is about the same in AAA.  He is not a good prospect and would be someone I would want to stay far far far far far far away from. 

The Orioles won't trade Rodriguez for Burnes so that is out of the question.  At best you may be able to get Holliday but then that is all you are getting from the Orioles. 

If you want Westburg then you need to subtract out Mayo in a Peralta deal as they are about the same value wise and in your offer you have about $60m in value going to the Brewers and only about $50m in value going to the Orioles.  If you want Hall or Mayo you would have to drop Povich.  Again I would stay clear of Hall as he is not a good pitcher. 

[jay87shot]

If it was Burnes for Holiday straight up I probably would do that. It would move this org back a couple years but Holiday has been through the roof spectacular this year. I doubt the O's trade him but they have so much IF depth it could happen. 

I agree DL Hall hasn't been great but he has like 16 innings in the bigs. He is a lefty that throws in the upper 90s with 3 solid pitches. As a 3rd piece in a Burnes deal he would be great just on potential.  

 

[BrewerFan]

On 6/16/2023 at 2:42 PM, jay87shot said:

If it was Burnes for Holiday straight up I probably would do that. It would move this org back a couple years but Holiday has been through the roof spectacular this year. I doubt the O's trade him but they have so much IF depth it could happen. 

I agree DL Hall hasn't been great but he has like 16 innings in the bigs. He is a lefty that throws in the upper 90s with 3 solid pitches. As a 3rd piece in a Burnes deal he would be great just on potential.  

 

Hall is exactly the type of guy I'd like to see the Brewers go after. They've had success with pitchers with elite stuff who struggle with walks(and the O's conversely have had virtually zero success with those types of arms). 

Not Hall alone of course, but I trust the Brewers ability to develop pitching.

 

I also think Baltimore is going to be spending. They go through circles where their payroll is ridiculously small, then they ramp it back up into middle market type range. I also thought they'd spend this past year.

 

One thing they haven't done in what feels like forever is develop their own pitching. They get prospects who are rated in the top 5-10-20, but they seldom seem to hit. From Arrietta and Gausman who thrived elsewhere to guys like Tillman and Matusz who were both top 5 overall prospects who never hit.

 

Still, seems like it'd make more sense for them to flip a guy like Holliday for a pitcher like...Bobby Miller(just an example). A trade like the Twins-Marlins made.

[nate82]

14 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I also think Baltimore is going to be spending. They go through circles where their payroll is ridiculously small, then they ramp it back up into middle market type range. I also thought they'd spend this past year.

Their owner has recently commented that they see themselves more like the Brewers and the Rays.  I doubt they will be spending all that much. 

[BrewerFan]

On 6/19/2023 at 12:30 PM, nate82 said:

Their owner has recently commented that they see themselves more like the Brewers and the Rays.  I doubt they will be spending all that much. 

I'm not sure what that means without more context, but they've been in the ~140-160 range recently(4-5 years ago).

Heck, they had a higher payroll 25 years ago. I'm not saying they'll be the Mets, but with all the young talent they have, I'd be surprised if they're not around league average in the next couple years. That'd give them nearly 100M to add. If it's 130 or 160 exactly, they'll be able to spend a lot more money than they have been. 

[nate82]

21 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I'm not sure what that means without more context, but they've been in the ~140-160 range recently(4-5 years ago).

Heck, they had a higher payroll 25 years ago. I'm not saying they'll be the Mets, but with all the young talent they have, I'd be surprised if they're not around league average in the next couple years. That'd give them nearly 100M to add. If it's 130 or 160 exactly, they'll be able to spend a lot more money than they have been. 

Angelos has been on record saying that he won't raise payroll unless more people start coming back.  I doubt the Orioles ever get back to a $120m+ payroll.

https://www.camdenchat.com/2023/1/21/23564904/baltimore-orioles-news-mlb-trade-rumors-mike-elias-john-angelos-2023

Quote

Angelos did say that payroll would increase “if we collectively as a community can get people coming back downtown.” At the same time, he referenced the Brewers, Rays, and Guardians, teams with low payrolls and acceptable on-field performance, as organizations to emulate.

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

On 6/19/2023 at 12:30 PM, nate82 said:

Their owner has recently commented that they see themselves more like the Brewers and the Rays.  I doubt they will be spending all that much. 

Baltimore actually is a pretty dinky baseball market, very similar to the Brewers, actually.  They are right on top of Washington DC (Nats) and 40 miles away from Philly The Orioles got awful by trying to be more like the Red Sox and Yankees financially when they couldn't, and now are starting to see reward of sticking with an extended rebuild that saw some painful MLB cellar seasons like what the Astros did ~15 yrs ago.

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

Angelos has been on record saying that he won't raise payroll unless more people start coming back.  I doubt the Orioles ever get back to a $120m+ payroll.

https://www.camdenchat.com/2023/1/21/23564904/baltimore-orioles-news-mlb-trade-rumors-mike-elias-john-angelos-2023

 

Yes...and attendance is up 24% this year. It's up around MLB 6%. I'd say more people have started to come back to Baltimore in particular. 

 

This is why I like actually reading the articles rather than paraphrasing. They said they'd like to emulate the Rays, Brewers, Guardians. I think most teams are trying to do that by developing players. It's why the Dodgers went and poached the Rays GM and went on the best run(record wise) in franchise History.

 

As for the 120M dollar figure, Ownership also stated this past off-season they expected to ramp up spending in the coming years and will be in the "top half of the league." That would put them at 180M.

I don't know if they get there(it wouldn't be out of the norm for them when competitive). But 120M is a...an oddly low number for a team that has consistently lowered salary when rebuilding and then ramped back up when competitive going back to the last 40+ years(and again...blown past it just a few years ago).

 

https://calltothepen.com/2023/01/21/baltimore-orioles-looking-increase-payroll-coming-years/

Quote

 

There was a time when the Baltimore Orioles payroll was one of the highest in the majors. However, due to their ongoing rebuild, those days are in the rearview mirror.

That may be changing soon. As reported by Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun, team CEO John Angelos said that he “thinks [they] will be able to” move their payroll into the top half of the league at some point.