Cubs (Stroman) vs Brewers (Peralta): 7/6/23, 1:10pm

[yourout]

1 hour ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

If Burnes wanted to toss a CG shutout tomorrow, I would not complain.

Which is more likely?

A Burnes complete game or a combined no-hitter.

[edfunderburk]

1 hour ago, markedman5 said:

Reds really getting the job done against the bad teams……that’s a good way to win a bad division.

 

I may never get over the Brewers being swept at home by the woeful A’s … I’m concerned that may be significant come October  

[82brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, markedman5 said:

Reds really getting the job done against the bad teams……that’s a good way to win a bad division.

 

And a thing good teams do.

[yourout]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

With todays win the Reds have won 20 of 24 overall, and I think they said they have won 19 of their last 22 road games. 

That's nuts.

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

It's not that they're not good. It's that they're not this good.

They have a bunch of rookies and journeymen overperforming their career numbers and xStats. Their pitching has been as bad as our hitting for most of the year. They'll almost certainly come back down to earth a bit over the next few months. 

But I agree that they're probably the biggest obstacle between us and the postseason at this point. 

Of course they aren’t going to keep winning 80% of their games like they have the last few weeks. But they have gone 42-24 since their 7-15 start. That’s a pretty long period of good play to expect that they are going to suddenly fall on their faces. Maybe they will, but there have been enough key personnel additions (McLain, Abbott, DeLa Cruz, Votto to name a few) to suggest that the last 66 games are a better indicator than the first 22. They have gained 10 games on the Brewers over those 26 games. 
 

The Reds starting pitching has been pretty bad from the beginning, and hasn’t been helped by injuries to Greene and Lodolo, but it does seem like they’ve pieced together a decent bullpen over the last month or so.  
 

I looked today and saw that Fangraphs projects both the Brewers and Reds to finish 82-80. That reflects an expectation that the Brewers will continue to tread water while the Reds flatten out. I wonder if some of those projections have a hard time with a team with a lot of new players because to me that offense looks like it is for real, with enough weapons to overcome a few players returning to earth. The number of hitters they have with an OPS over .800 is pretty striking. 

[Pugger]

49 minutes ago, BruisedCrew said:

Of course they aren’t going to keep winning 80% of their games like they have the last few weeks. But they have gone 42-24 since their 7-15 start. That’s a pretty long period of good play to expect that they are going to suddenly fall on their faces. Maybe they will, but there have been enough key personnel additions (McLain, Abbott, DeLa Cruz, Votto to name a few) to suggest that the last 66 games are a better indicator than the first 22. They have gained 10 games on the Brewers over those 26 games. 
 

The Reds starting pitching has been pretty bad from the beginning, and hasn’t been helped by injuries to Greene and Lodolo, but it does seem like they’ve pieced together a decent bullpen over the last month or so.  
 

I looked today and saw that Fangraphs projects both the Brewers and Reds to finish 82-80. That reflects an expectation that the Brewers will continue to tread water while the Reds flatten out. I wonder if some of those projections have a hard time with a team with a lot of new players because to me that offense looks like it is for real, with enough weapons to overcome a few players returning to earth. The number of hitters they have with an OPS over .800 is pretty striking. 

But how long can they continue to hit like this?  

[willie key]

1 minute ago, Pugger said:

But how long can they continue to hit like this?  

If they are good hitters than they will hit good

[treego14]

2 hours ago, yourout said:

Which is more likely?

A Burnes complete game or a combined no-hitter.

I don't know ... but he will give us a good show!

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

1 hour ago, willie key said:

If they are good hitters than they will hit good

Sure, but we're still very SSS right now. I mean, I think the Reds are good. Their young players have been awesome. But it's pretty common for really good rookie players to fall off after the ASB. Pitchers make adjustments, can the hitters adjust back, etc. 

I don't know what's going to happen. But it's not crazy to think the Reds are about a .500 "true talent" team that's had a really good stretch.

I think there's less uncertainty around the Brewers. They are a .500 team that tries to push closer to .540 by winning a lot of close games. They'll be between 79 and 85 wins probably. I could see the Reds anywhere from 80 to 95.

 

 

[brewmann04]

 Wry curious how their series vs the reds now and after the break 

[Jake McKibbin]

12 hours ago, Pugger said:

The Reds just tied it up.

The reds are playing well no doubt, but they've also been incredibly lucky at just the right moments over this series. Hoping we can burst the bubble, heck we kinda need to

[Jake McKibbin]

Also elly de la cruz has an xWOBA of .289, instead of the current .384 mark