A Survey of One Plus WAR Players Drafted 2016-22

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Draft time of year again and Arnold's first one in the big chair got me thinking now would be a good time to look back at how recent Brewers drafts stacked up under Stearns. I know the draft is more the scouting director's domain, but it's easier to split up this way and convenient timing.

Only twelve players total are represented from the 2020 to 2022 drafts (Mitchell & Wiemer among that dozen), so this is more realistically a look at the 2016-19 drafts four to seven years down the road. These things take time.

My methodology was pretty straight forward. I went through every team's draft from 2016 to 2022 on BRef and noted any player with 1.0 WAR or more who signed with that team. In the notes section below I tried to also make mention of players traded or who went unsigned or were scooped up in the Rule 5, etc.

To break things up I'll make separate posts below for each division, but here are some tidbits I thought were interesting...

- Only 160 players drafted from 2016-22 have cracked 1.0 WAR in their careers so far.

- Seven years out from the 2016 draft and only nine players have accrued ten WAR or more with Shane Bieber leading the way at 17.0 WAR. The highest drafted of those nine players was Will Smith at #32 with the other eight going between picks #59 and #196.

- Six years out from the 2017 draft and the leader in the clubhouse is Daulton Varsho at 8.6 WAR. Only five other 2017 draftees have even cracked 5.0 WAR.

- 2018 is looking a little better with Nico Hoerner (9.1 WAR) leading the way and another seven guys already at five or more WAR with another five or so on pace to top 5.0 WAR by season's end.

- 2019 has four draftees over 5.0 WAR with Adley Rutschman topping the list at 7.4 WAR so far.   

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NL CENTRAL

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (Totals: 8 at 54.5 WAR)
2016: Tommy Edman (15.8), Zac Gallen (15.3), Dylan Carlson (5.9), Dakota Hudson (3.6)
2018: Brendan Donovan (5.8), Lars Nootbar (4.3), Nolan Gorman (2.2)
2019: Andre Pallante (1.6)
Notes: Gallen traded with Sandy Alcantara (17.4 WAR with Marlins) for Marcell Ozuna (4.6 WAR with Cardinals) offsets the devil magic somewhat.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS (Totals: 5 at 21.2 WAR)
2016: Corbin Burnes (10.9)
2017: Keston Hiura (1.5)
2018: Drew Rasmussen (6.0)
2020: Garrett Mitchell (1.5), Joey Wiemer (1.3)
Notes: Rasmussen traded for Willy Adames (9.6 WAR with Brewers)

CINCINNATI REDS (Totals: 8 at 19.9 WAR) 
2017: Hunter Greene (3.9), Stuart Fairchild (1.1)
2018: Jonathan India (4.6), Josiah Gray (2.6)
2019: Nick Lodolo (2.8), Graham Ashcraft (1.1)
2021: Matt McLain (2.0), Andrew Abbott (2.0)
Notes: Gray traded to Dodgers with Homer Bailey and Jeter Downs for Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Alex Wood, Kyle Farmer and cash. Dodgers subsequently traded Gray to the Nationals with Keibert Ruiz for Trea Turner and Max Scherzer.

CHICAGO CUBS (Totals: 4 at 13.4 WAR)
2017: Keegan Thompson (2.2), Alex Lange (1.1), Brandon Hughes (1.0)
2018: Nico Hoerner (9.1)
Notes: Brewers drafting Turang in front of Hoerner is probably a bigger whiff to this point than drafting Corey Ray at #5 in 2016 considering none of the names in consideration for that pick have really amounted to much and even if we had shocked the draftniks and taken Ray's Louisville teammate Will Smith (13.6 WAR with Dodgers) there is no guarantee we would have gotten the same result that the Dodgers development juggernaut have gotten out of him. 

PITTSBURGH PIRATES (Totals: 0 at 0 WAR)
Notes: Drafted Nick Lodolo (2.8 WAR with Reds but he did not sign)

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NL EAST

ATLANTA BRAVES (Totals: 5 at 22.3 WAR)
2016: Ian Anderson (3.6)
2017: Kyle Wright (2.7)
2019: Michael Harris II (6.5)
2020: Spencer Strider (5.8), Bryce Elder (3.7)
Notes: Drafted Reid Detmers (3.0 WAR with Angels but he did not sign)

NEW YORK METS (Totals: 3 at 18.9 WAR)
2016: Pete Alonso (15.8), Justin Dunn (1.5)
2017: David Peterson (1.6)
Notes: Drafted George Kirby (3.7 WAR with Mariners but he did not sign)

MIAMI MARLINS (Totals: 5 at 12.3 WAR)
2016: Michael King (3.8), Braxton Garrett (3.0)
2017: Trevor Rogers (2.9)
2018: Nick Fortes (1.4), Alex Vesia (1.2)
Notes: Michael King traded to Yankees for Garrett Cooper and Caleb Smith (7.2 combined WAR for Marlins)

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Totals: 4 at 10.4 WAR)
2016: Cole Irvin (3.0)
2017: Connor Brogdon (2.4), Adam Haseley (1.4)
2019: Bryson Stott (3.6)
Notes: Brogdon got a 5K bonus, Haseley got a 5M bonus. Sold Irvin to the Athletics for cash.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS (Totals: 3 at 9.1 WAR)
2016: Jesus Luzardo (4.5), Dane Dunning (3.6)
2017: Jake Cousins (1.0)
Notes: Dunning traded with Lucas Giolito to White Sox for Adam Eaton. Luzardo traded with Blake Treinen to the Athletics for Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson. Cousins signed with Brewers as minor league FA.

 

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NL WEST 

LOS ANGELES DODGERS (Totals: 8 at 39.5 WAR)
2016: Will Smith (13.6), Tony Gonsolin (9.2), Gavin Lux (5.2), Dustin May (3.7), Dean Kremer (2.9), Luke Raley (1.7), Devin Smeltzer (1.1)
2017: Connor Wong (2.1)
Notes: Also drafted Bailey Ober (5.1 WAR with Twins) and Graham Ashcraft (1.1 WAR with Reds) in 2016 but they did not sign. Kind of crazy the extent to which they murdered the draft in 2016 but pretty much crickets since.

SAN DIEGO PADRES (Totals: 9 at 27.4 WAR)
2016: Cal Quantrill (5.8), David Bednar (4.8), Eric Lauer (3.8), Jack Suwinski (3.6), Joey Lucchesi (3.0)
2017: MacKenzie Gore (1.9)
2018: Steve Wilson (1.7), Dylan Coleman (1.4)
2019: CJ Abrams (1.4)
Notes: Trade Central - Quantrill to Guardians, Bednar/Suwinski to Pirates, Lauer to Brewers, Gore/Abrams to Nationals, Coleman to Royals. Only Lucchesi on the list put up the majority of his value with the Padres.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (Totals: 8 at 25.2 WAR)
2017: Daulton Varsho (8.6), Jose Caballero (1.4)
2018: Jake McCarthy (3.2), Alek Thomas (2.2), Tyler Horton (1.7)
2019: Corbin Carroll (5.0), Drey Jameson (2.0), Tommy Henry (1.1)
Notes: Drafted Tarik Skubal (3.5 WAR with Tigers) and Matt McLain (2.0 WAR with Reds), but they did not sign.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (Totals: 3 at 17.3 WAR)
2016: Bryan Reynolds (14.6)
2018: David Villar (1.2)
2020: Patrick Bailey (1.5)
Notes: Reynolds traded to Pirates for Andrew McCutchen (1.6 WAR with Giants)

COLORADO ROCKIES (Totals: 3 at 4.5 WAR)
2016: Bryan Baker (1.6)
2017: Lucas Gilbreath (1.5)
2018: Jake Bird (1.4)
Notes: Three guys and four point five WAR more than the Pirates.

 

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AL CENTRAL

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (Totals: 12 at 45.0 WAR)
2016: Shane Bieber (17.0), Aaron Civale (4.6), Zach Plesac (3.6), Nolan Jones (1.4)
2017: James Karinchak (3.0), Eli Morgan (1.3), Kyle Nelson (1.1)
2018: Steve Kwan (7.2), Nick Sandlin (2.1)
2019: Will Brennan (1.5)
2020: Logan Allen (1.0)
2021: Tanner Bibee (1.2)
Notes: Drafted Spencer Steer (1.6 WAR with Reds) and Spencer Strider (5.8 WAR with Braves), but they did not sign.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS (Totals: 8 at 20.7 WAR)
2016: Nicky Lopez (5.2), Anthony Bender (1.7)
2018: Brady Singer (5.6), Kris Bubic (1.7), Kyle Isbel (1.4), Daniel Lynch (1.1)
2019: Bobby Witt (2.4), Vinnie Pasquantino (1.6)
Notes: They've graduated some dudes, but haven't really made any notable trades or signings to augment things. Maybe the most on-an-island organization out there after the Rockies. 

MINNESOTA TWINS (Totals: 7 at 20.0 WAR)
2016: Tyler Wells (4.3), Akil Baddoo (2.6)
2017: Bailey Ober (5.1), Royce Lewis (1.1)
2018: Ryan Jeffers (3.4), Trevor Larnach (1.9)
2019: Spencer Steer (1.6)
Notes: Traded Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand to Reds for Tyler Mahle (0.5 WAR with Twins). Drafted Patrick Bailey (1.5 WAR with Giants but he did not sign). Lost Wells/Baddoo in Rule 5 to Orioles/Tigers. 

DETROIT TIGERS (Totals: 6 at 15.0 WAR)
2016: John Schreiber (3.1), Matt Manning (1.1)
2018: Tarik Skubal (3.5), Casey Mize (2.8)
2019: Riley Greene (3.4), Kerry Carpenter (1.1)
Notes: Schreiber got 6K, Manning got 4M. Schreiber claimed on waivers by Red Sox. Drafted Keegan Thompson (2.2 WAR with Cubs but he did not sign).

CHICAGO WHITE SOX (Totals: 5 at 8.9 WAR)
2016: Alex Call (1.4)
2017: Jake Burger (1.1)
2018: Nick Madrigal (3.3), Codi Heuer (1.4)
2020: Garrett Crochet (1.7) 
Notes: Traded Madrigal and Heuer for Craig Kimbrel (0.0 WAR with White Sox). 

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AL EAST

TORONTO BLUE JAYS (Totals: 6 at 34.1 WAR)
2016: Bo Bichette (16.3), Cavan Biggio (5.7), Zach Jackson (1.5)
2017: Ryan Noda (1.6), Riley Adams (1.0)
2019: Alex Manoah (8.0)
Notes: Lost Jackson in Rule 5 to Athletics. Traded Noda to Dodgers for Ross Stripling (3.8 WAR with Blue Jays). Traded Adams to Nationals for Brad Hand (0.3 WAR with Blue Jays)

TAMPA BAY RAYS (Totals: 6 at 32.4 WAR)
2016: Nathaniel Lowe (8.6), Jake Fraley (2.6), Josh Lowe (2.0)
2017: Taylor Walls (6.3)
2018: Shane McClanahan (8.8), Joe Ryan (4.4)
Notes: Traded N. Lowe to Rangers for trio of teenagers. Traded Fraley to Mariners for Zunino (2.6 WAR with Rays). Drafted Hayden Wesneski (1.1 WAR with Cubs but he did not sign). Drafted Drew Rasmussen, did not sign due to injury, traded for him later. Traded Ryan for Nelson Cruz (0.4 WAR with Rays). 

BALTIMORE ORIOLES (Totals: 3 at 19.2 WAR)
2016: Austin Hays (8.8)
2019: Adley Rutschman (7.4), Gunnar Henderson (3.3)
Notes: Three big hits, more on the way. Drafted Logan Allen (1.0 WAR with Guardians but he did not sign).

NEW YORK YANKEES (Totals: 6 at 13.5 WAR)
2016: Taylor Widener (1.1)
2017: Garrett Whitlock (5.0), Trevor Stephan (2.6), Ron Marinaccio (1.6)
2019: Anthony Volpe (2.1), Hayden Wesneski (1.1)
Notes: Widener dealt in three team deal for Brandon Drury (-0.3 WAR with Yankees). Lost Whitlock/Stephan in Rule 5 to Red Sox/Guardians. Drafted Andrew Abbott (2.0 WAR with Red but he did not sign). Traded Wesneski for Scott Effross (0.4 WAR with Yankees).

BOSTON RED SOX (Totals: 3 at 11.5 WAR)
2016: Santiago Espinal (5.1)
2017: Tanner Houck (5.2)
2018: Jarren Duran (1.2)
Notes: Traded Espinal to Blue Jays for WSMVP Steve Pearce. Drafted Trevor Stephan (2.6 WAR with Guardians but he did not sign).

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AL WEST

HOUSTON ASTROS (Totals: 8 at 23.5 WAR)
2016: Jake Rogers (1.2)
2017: Chas McCormick (5.1), Josh Rojas (3.2), Jake Meyers (2.9), Corey Julks (1.0)
2018: Jeremy Pena (6.9), JP France (1.3) 
2019: Hunter Brown (1.9)
Notes: Traded Rogers to Tigers for Verlander. Traded Rojas to the Diamondbacks for Greinke. 

SEATTLE MARINERS (Totals: 6 at 19.8 WAR)
2016: Kyle Lewis (2.1)
2017: JP Sears (2.9)
2018: Logan Gilbert (5.5), Cal Raleigh (4.2), Penn Murfee (1.4)
2019: George Kirby (3.7)
Notes: Drafted Adley Rutschman (7.4 WAR with Orioles but he did not sign). Traded Sears to Yankees for Nick Rumbelow (-0.4 WAR with Mariners)

LOS ANGELES ANGELS (Totals: 5 at 14.2 WAR)
2016: Brandon Marsh (3.9)
2017: Griffin Canning (3.1)
2018: Kyle Bradish (2.3)
2020: Reid Detmers (3.0)
2022: Zach Neto (1.9)
Notes: Traded Marsh to Phillies for Logan O'Hoppe (0.5 WAR with Angels). Traded Bradish to Orioles for Dylan Bundy (1.4 WAR with Angels)

OAKLAND ATHLETICS (Totals: 2 at 12.7 WAR)
2016 Sean Murphy (11.6), AJ Puk (1.1)
Notes: Traded Puk to Marlins for JJ Bleday (0.4 WAR with Athletics). Drafted Garrett Mitchell (1.5 WAR with Brewers but he did not sign).

TEXAS RANGERS (Totals: 1 at 2.8 WAR)
2019: Josh Jung (2.8)
Notes: One guy and two point eight WAR more than the Pirates.

[BrewerFan]

Damn...didn't see this. You don't go halfway, do you!

Great post though. Also don't know how I missed that the Pirates got Reynolds for McCutchen, but that's just another example why I don't like the idea of giving up some of these players in A ball who aren't valued as top prospects or as elite prospects(Lara, Guillarte, players of that ilk) in a trade...not that they were drafted.

 

Anyway, great post. 

[sveumrules]

5 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Damn...didn't see this. You don't go halfway, do you!

Great post though. Also don't know how I missed that the Pirates got Reynolds for McCutchen, but that's just another example why I don't like the idea of giving up some of these players in A ball who aren't valued as top prospects or as elite prospects(Lara, Guillarte, players of that ilk) in a trade...not that they were drafted.

 

Anyway, great post. 

Thanks, appreciate it.

Was something I’d been curious about for awhile and no baseball during the break gave me a chance to put it all together.

[umphrey]

I’m trying to figure out what my take is here and I think it’s that we are just middle of the road overall. If you did a similar list again next year then Burnes would drop off and we will look worse. It would be great if Wiemer/Mitchell/Turang could continue to contribute with someone taking the next step into above average territory, that would also buck the trend of us failing to develop hitters for a long time and help the offense. 

[ClosetBrewerFan]

This is an impressive effort.  I fully know how long this must have taken to do.  About a year ago I wrote a four part blog post on the Brewers past 20 drafts.  My approach was similar in using WAR as the evaluation metric (among other subjective methods).  It goes to show how amazing those early 2000 drafts were.  Here is a link if interested: https://brewerfanatic.com/blogs/entry/35-what-was-the-best-brewers-draft-of-the-last-20-years-part-4/

Anyway, its pretty amazing looking at the other team drafts from '16 - '20.  There is a direct correlation between draft success and winning.  Hard to believe Pittsburgh was unable to draft one player of value in those years.

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22 minutes ago, umphrey said:

I’m trying to figure out what my take is here and I think it’s that we are just middle of the road overall. If you did a similar list again next year then Burnes would drop off and we will look worse. It would be great if Wiemer/Mitchell/Turang could continue to contribute with someone taking the next step into above average territory, that would also buck the trend of us failing to develop hitters for a long time and help the offense. 

For this snapshot of time I’d probably have STL, LAD, CLE in tier 1A with TOR and TBR in tier 1B. But even then, juggernaut LAD got the entirety of their value from the 2016 draft.

After that MIL is one of eleven teams with at least 19 WAR. If you adjust for players traded, etc they’re about #8 overall.

Granted, most of that is Burnes, but if you chop off the most recent three drafts since they’ve produced a negligible amount of one WAR players to this point, and instead add the 2013-15 drafts they’d have Woodruff, Grisham and Williams among the hits.

But then that was a different scouting director and GM so it’s of limited utility as well with regards to looking forward.

But at the same time, the current FO and staff developed Woodruff/Williams  & dealt Grisham for Urias/Lauer so they probably deserve some credit too.

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23 minutes ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

This is an impressive effort.  I fully know how long this must have taken to do.  About a year ago I wrote a four part blog post on the Brewers past 20 drafts.  My approach was similar in using WAR as the evaluation metric (among other subjective methods).  It goes to show how amazing those early 2000 drafts were.  Here is a link if interested: https://brewerfanatic.com/blogs/entry/35-what-was-the-best-brewers-draft-of-the-last-20-years-part-4/

Anyway, its pretty amazing looking at the other team drafts from '16 - '20.  There is a direct correlation between draft success and winning.  Hard to believe Pittsburgh was unable to draft one player of value in those years.

Thanks for the link, will definitely check it out. Looks like you went into quite a bit more depth than I did.

I had originally intended to include every player that made MLB, but after a couple teams there were so many negative or marginal guys that I decided to draw the line at one WAR to streamline things a bit.

Those early 2000 Brewers drafts were certainly phenomenal, the cult of Jack Z was strong. Sometimes it seems like Brewers fans treat that run as a baseline for what every draft “should” be even though we were picking Top 7 four years in a row then.

[wiguy94]

Down on the Farm actually did an article where they assigned specific WAR values to picks and the Brewers actually fared pretty well in that metric. We were 8th in the MLB when factoring in draft position expectations.

Here is the article: https://downonthefarm.substack.com/p/the-most-successful-drafting-organizations

[ClosetBrewerFan]

8 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Down on the Farm actually did an article where they assigned specific WAR values to picks and the Brewers actually fared pretty well in that metric. We were 8th in the MLB when factoring in draft position expectations.

Here is the article: https://downonthefarm.substack.com/p/the-most-successful-drafting-organizations

Thanks for the link.  Interesting read.  Would have been cool if they published the expected WAR for each pick, though I can see why they didn't want to post that for free.

I think the Brewers benefit by picking lower in the draft during those years (16 on average).  The window they selected is too recent and doesn't give enough time to build up WAR.  Missing on high picks will be penalized greater than lower picks.  Otherwise, this is probably the best way to evaluate drafting by trying to eliminate the effects of draft order.