Mark Canha Proposal

[Matt Breen]

Here's a very simple and low key move if the Mets (who are 46-53) elect to become sellers. 

Trade for 1B/OF Mark Canha. His numbers aren't great - .238 BA, .719 OPS, 101 OPS+. About as average as you can get. His career numbers are .247 and .770.

The good signs are that his BB and K rates are about average for him (solid 10.3 BB% and a 17.1 K%). His BAIAP is 18 points below his career average, so perhaps he's been a bit unlucky this year. He's a right handed hitter - but his splits aren't to dramatic - hitting righties at a .781 OPS clip vs .748 vs lefties. The numbers this year are almost exactly even - .719 vs .720. 

His bWAR this year is 1.3 - after years of 2.5 and 2.6. 

Even when good, he's nothing great. But he's a 2.0 WAR guy - better than anything we are getting from Rowdy. 

Canha - who is 34 - came up as a 1B, but has played OF for most of his career. For the Brewers, you'd be looking at him being a very generic, league averagish 1B. He can cover corner OF if needed - plus DH. He's even got a decent amount of experience in CF, but I'm not sure we'd want him - or need him - there. He's not a bad athlete - but he is on the downside of his career. 

Canha makes $11.5M this year with a $2M team buyout on another year at $11.5M. So if the Mets elect to sell, we shouldn't have to pay much of anything for him - and perhaps even get the Mets to kick in a little of his salary (or 2024 buyout). I wouldn't expect anyone to pick up his 2024 option - unless he went on a tear these last couple of months.

In the end, this is a small, incremental move to improve the lineup. Nothing earthshaking. When Rowdy gets back, he could become our DH - and Winker could be let go. Again, small, incremental improvements.

I also like it as it doesn't require giving up good prospects - which I am loathe to do that this point.

[Devinep]

Canha makes a lot of sense for the reasons already mentioned.  Replacing Winker with him makes this teams lineup and defensive versatility that much better. It would hopefully mean the end of Owen Miller as an everyday player also

[sveumrules]

1B options are pretty uninspiring - Moose Reunion? (102 wRC+), Carlos Santana (98 wRC+), CJ Cron (92 wRC+, day to day due to his back), Dom Smith (91 wRC+).

Even though he hasn’t played a ton of 1B (87 innings this year, 97 innings in 2019, 537 innings in 2015) I’d be fine rolling the dice on Canha over the above names.

Getting one of Tommy Pham (129 wRC+, but day to day with a groin), Randal Grichuk (117 wRC+) or even Teoscar Hernandez (96 wRC+ but StatCast says there’s a lot of bad luck in there) for DH would be my first focus though.

Don’t think Ohtani gets dealt, but if he does and it’s to TOR they have Vlad Jr and Brandon Belt (125 wRC+) at first/DH currently. Could swoop up Belt in that scenario.

If LAA sells, Brandon Drury (122 wRC+) would be another good option, though it looks like he is currently rehabbing a shoulder.

[wibadgers23]

I’ve always liked Carlos Santana and have always wanted the Brewers to sign him in  previous offseasons but not sure how much he has left in the tank.

[LouisEly]

22 hours ago, reillymcshane said:

Trade for 1B/OF Mark Canha. His numbers aren't great - .238 BA, .719 OPS

Even when good, he's nothing great. But he's a 2.0 WAR guy - better than anything we are getting from Rowdy. 

How much of that WAR is coming from OF vs. 1B?

And as late as June 1st, Rowdy had a .830 OPS.

[Matt Breen]

2 hours ago, LouisEly said:

How much of that WAR is coming from OF vs. 1B?

And as late as June 1st, Rowdy had a .830 OPS.

That's a good question - and I don't even really know how to make that assessment. 

I will say that Rowdy is a bad first basemen. And he's a bad baserunner.

The .830 OPS as of June 1 is great - but now it's at .672. Last year it was .767. Career .753 OPS. Perhaps there's reason to believe he can rebound and improve. A 30 HR bat is great. 

Even if you add Canha - or someone else - you could give Rowdy at bats at DH. That's probably where he is best slotted. Winker doesn't seem to be the answer at DH. I'd take a healthy Rowdy over him.

[LouisEly]

2 hours ago, reillymcshane said:

The .830 OPS as of June 1 is great - but now it's at .672. Last year it was .767. Career .753 OPS. Perhaps there's reason to believe he can rebound and improve.

He had a forearm injury - that's why he had a terrible June and a reason to believe he can improve.  Let's not act like he's been terrible all year because that's patently false.

Here's his OPS by month over the last two seasons (not including July 2023 as he only had 11 PAs):

.442, .756, .886, .670, .844, .710, .788, .825, ..784

One of these sure looks like an outlier, and a reason to believe the forearm injury was legit, and a reason not to trade for a mediocre 1B such as Canha or Cron.  Does he deserve criticism for trying to play through it?  Hell yes, whether it's machismo or whatever, he should have told Counsell about it and sought treatment a lot earlier because trying to play through it cost his team.  But history shows that he - when healthy - can provide just as much offense as anyone they can realistically acquire.

[LincolnDD]

The Athletic mentioned last night that "the Brewers are among multiple teams to express interest in Mark Canha".  Link (subscription required)  No more details, other than the Dodgers are also interested (along with a few other unmentioned teams).

I wonder if they'd take Winker back in a deal, to even out the salary a little?  Canha wouldn't move the needle too much, but that would be a pretty solid upgrade of a roster spot, going from Winker to Canha.  Like the Braves swapping Pablo Sandoval for Eddie Rosario in 2021, nothing major, but a little upgrade.