An Offseason Dive Into the Brewers Farm System: Third Base

[Harold Hutchison]

Third base was arguably one of the biggest problem areas for the Brewers in 2023, with a combination of injuries and offensive inconsistency from Luis Urias and Brian Anderson leading to the emergence of Andruw Monasterio as a solid bench asset and the late-season acquisition of Josh Donaldson. Can the Crew get help at this position from the farm?

Image courtesy of © Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK

The situation at third base on the farm has changed the most since spring training this year. Just how much has the situation changed? Let’s take a look.

Tyler Black (AA Biloxi/AAA Nashville)
.284/.417/.517 with 25 doubles, 18 home runs, 73 RBI, 88 walks, 100 strikeouts in 450 at-bats

Black was an exciting prospect the moment he was drafted, based on a high-contact bat that seemed a lot like that of Jeff Cirillo. In 2022, both his regular minor-league season and his Arizona Fall League season were cut short by injuries. However, he broke out in 2023, and it was a doozy – 55 extra-base hits and another 55 steals. In addition, he made the move to third base and held that position down, catapulting him to serious contention to be the Opening Day 2024 third baseman.

Patrick Dorrian (AAA Nashville)
.238/.312/.466 with 18 doubles, 21 home runs, 65 RBI, 34 walks, 127 strikeouts in 367 at-bats

While much of his mark was made in the middle infield for the Sounds, Dorrian was primarily a third baseman in previous years. He has a solid left-handed power bat, and his defense is solid. The strikeout rate is a concern, but Dorrian’s development could be interesting.

Brock Wilken (R ACL Brewers/A+ Wisconsin/AA Biloxi)
.285/.414/.473 with eight doubles, five home runs, 29 RBI, 33 walks, 47 strikeouts in 165 at-bats

The Brewers’ first-round pick in 2023 rose the system rapidly. Wilken could end up at either corner infield position for the team and offer a pure right-handed power bat. He also flashed speed, with four triples and four steals in his smallish sample size. If he has a negative, it is the fact he struck out as often as he got a hit. Conversely, Wilken’s OBP skills are also superb, and he more than held his own in pro ball.

Zavier Warren (AA Biloxi)
.236/.319/.406 with 15 doubles, 15 home runs, 63 RBI, 45 walks and 86 strikeouts in 377 at-bats

While primarily playing first base, Warren still saw significant action at third base in 2023. Warren’s bat flashes a lot of power and can draw walks. While he’s primarily been a corner infielder professionally, he saw action at catcher in 2021. He has occasionally dabbled at the middle infield positions, which could make him an intriguing prospect for the Brewers’ bench.

Ben Metzinger (A+ Wisconsin)
.226/.344/.321 with 15 doubles, five home runs, 45 RBI, 55 walks, 119 strikeouts in 318 at-bats

Metzinger split time at both corner infield positions for the Timber Rattlers in 2023 and displayed excellent OBP skills with some pop. He also displayed solid defense in Appleton. That said, he needs to display more power or improve his ability to hit for average to avoid being bypassed by others. Perhaps his development could hinge on playing some catcher, where he saw limited action in college.

Eduardo Garcia (A+ Wisconsin)
.208/.280/.326 with 13 doubles, four home runs, 29 RBI, 26 walks and 106 strikeouts in 298 at-bats

Garcia had been a somewhat exciting shortstop prospect in 2022, but in 2023, he took a step back after primarily handling third base due to the Brewers drafting Eric Brown Jr. and a host of other shortstops. His defense has never been a question; it’s been the bat that has held him back. At 21, though, he could put it all together, but time could be running out.

Luke Adams (A Carolina)
.233/.400/.401 with 18 doubles, 11 home runs, 54 RBI, 76 walks, 99 strikeouts in 339 at-bats

The Brewers drafted Adams in the 11th round of the 2022 draft – and that $282,500 signing bonus looks like a bargain this year. Adams displayed excellent defense at both corner infield positions and has a legit three-true-outcome bat and the ability to steal bases (30 steals). Adams could be a significant asset for the Brewers.

Eric Bitonti (R ACL Brewers)
.180/.333/.410 with one double, two home runs, nine RBI, nine walks, 15 strikeouts in 39 at-bats

It’s a small sample size, but Bitonti flashed a three-true outcome bat and did pretty well at third base with the ACL Brewers after being drafted in the third round. Lefty power bats have thrived at American Family Field, and Bitonti could join a list that has included Prince Fielder, Geoff Jenkins, and Christian Yelich, among others. The strikeouts will need to come down, but Bitonti has a lot of time to develop.

Demetrio Nadal (FRk DSL Brewers 2)
.342/.478/.525 with six doubles, two home runs, 20 RBI, 24 walks, 19 strikeouts in 120 at-bats

Nadal broke out in his second year in the DSL. While primarily playing third base, he also saw action in the outfield, at second base, and at shortstop. In addition to his defensive versatility, he showcased a dynamic bat, hitting for average and displaying excellent plate discipline. On the basepaths, he also demonstrated real speed (five triples and 33 stolen bases).

How do things at the hot corner stand in the Brewers’ farm system? Do you think the Brewers have some answers at this position? Who do you want to learn more about?

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[BrewerFan]

I like your write-ups Clancy...you view some prospects a bit...differently putting more stock in MiLB stats than tools, kinda flipped from conventional wisdom, and I know you catch a little flak for it-especially when you have some Loogy as the #1 prospect-but whatever.

The only thing...I've seen you put guys like Dorrian into both 2B and 3B, so why not...Baez, Boeve for example, or even Pratt? These are players who are at least potential 3B. 

Feels like you're missing quite a few guys who probably end up(or at least possibly if they develop) at 3B. 

[CheeseheadInQC]

I feel more confident about the current group of third basemen than in a long time, at least offensively. Each full season level (if they hold Black back) has a top 25ish Brewers prospect at minimum, and the ACL will likely have one of my favorite short-season sleepers.

On that topic, if you’re including Nadal, I would have tossed in Alastre. His season was basically a better version of Nadal’s 2022. Although I realize I might be alone in this.

[Michael Trzinski]

My question: Black stole 22 bases in 107 games for his teams in 2021-22. How did he pilfer 55 bags in 123 games in 2023 at the AA/AAA level? At 5-10, 204, he does not exactly have the 'speedster-type' body...

[jay87shot]

1 hour ago, Michael Trzinski said:

My question: Black stole 22 bases in 107 games for his teams in 2021-22. How did he pilfer 55 bags in 123 games in 2023 at the AA/AAA level? At 5-10, 204, he does not exactly have the 'speedster-type' body...

My guess is that he is a smart baserunner, especially with the 2 throw rule. Lots of opportunity as well being on base. My guess is that he is morr of a 30 sb guy in the majors but who knows.

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, Michael Trzinski said:

My question: Black stole 22 bases in 107 games for his teams in 2021-22. How did he pilfer 55 bags in 123 games in 2023 at the AA/AAA level? At 5-10, 204, he does not exactly have the 'speedster-type' body...

Eh, you're just picturing track guys. Think about most RBs or DBs. 5-10, 204 is normal.

Speed comes in lots of sizes other than fat. What's Trout? 6'1 240? He's thick and a burner. 

But I think his stealing bags is mostly the result of his good base running. 

[Harold Hutchison]

17 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I like your write-ups Clancy...you view some prospects a bit...differently putting more stock in MiLB stats than tools, kinda flipped from conventional wisdom, and I know you catch a little flak for it-especially when you have some Loogy as the #1 prospect-but whatever.

The only thing...I've seen you put guys like Dorrian into both 2B and 3B, so why not...Baez, Boeve for example, or even Pratt? These are players who are at least potential 3B. 

Feels like you're missing quite a few guys who probably end up(or at least possibly if they develop) at 3B. 

In this case, some of it is due to space. I'm also trying to keep the players grouped by where they played the most in 2023, even if they had significant time elsewhere on the diamond. Wes Clarke was a special case, given that first base was his primary position, but there was also a LOT of time spent at catcher and catcher was somewhat less crowded.

Boeve, for instance, was covered at second base. Pratt and Baez will be covered at short, where they spent most of their time. Honestly, I think the Crew ought to keep Baz at short - he's got an extremely dynamic bat, and it would be a shame to blow that opportunity at shortstop the way they did with third base in 2008.

[CheeseheadInQC]

1 hour ago, clancyphile said:

In this case, some of it is due to space. I'm also trying to keep the players grouped by where they played the most in 2023, even if they had significant time elsewhere on the diamond. Wes Clarke was a special case, given that first base was his primary position, but there was also a LOT of time spent at catcher and catcher was somewhat less crowded.

Boeve, for instance, was covered at second base. Pratt and Baez will be covered at short, where they spent most of their time. Honestly, I think the Crew ought to keep Baz at short - he's got an extremely dynamic bat, and it would be a shame to blow that opportunity at shortstop the way they did with third base in 2008.

Kind of branching off this topic, if they end up moving O’Rae to the outfield, I wonder who plays second at Carolina next season. Pratt, Baez and Bitonti all have been talked about almost exclusively at SS or 3rd. Pratt got some time at 2nd, but is probably the best prospect with a legit chance to stick at SS in the group, and generally you just fill in around that spot. Could be an opening for Gregory Barrios, assuming Areinamo and Guilarte get bumped up.

[Harold Hutchison]

29 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Kind of branching off this topic, if they end up moving O’Rae to the outfield, I wonder who plays second at Carolina next season. Pratt, Baez and Bitonti all have been talked about almost exclusively at SS or 3rd. Pratt got some time at 2nd, but is probably the best prospect with a legit chance to stick at SS in the group, and generally you just fill in around that spot. Could be an opening for Gregory Barrios, assuming Areinamo and Guilarte get bumped up.

I wonder if they will be aggressive with Adamczewski, kinda like they were with Luke Adams this year. 

[jay87shot]

MLB=Black or FA/trade, AAA=Dorrian/Devanney/Miller AA=Wilken, A+ Adams (some Boeve), A= Baez, Bitoni, Nadal?

Maybe halfway-ish Wilken, Adams, and Baez could all move up a level if playing well.

[Ro Mueller]

4 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Kind of branching off this topic, if they end up moving O’Rae to the outfield, I wonder who plays second at Carolina next season. Pratt, Baez and Bitonti all have been talked about almost exclusively at SS or 3rd. Pratt got some time at 2nd, but is probably the best prospect with a legit chance to stick at SS in the group, and generally you just fill in around that spot. Could be an opening for Gregory Barrios, assuming Areinamo and Guilarte get bumped up.

Barrios and Pratt seem to be the priority shortstops based on this year’s innings. I’ve got Baez projected at 3B, Barrios at 2B, Pratt at SS, O’Rae in CF. Once Bitonti (still 17) is ready for Low-A, he’d likely push Baez into a rover role.

I’d be disappointed if we held either of Areinamo or Guilarte back in Low-A, though I understand High-A may look like a bit of a logjam. Maybe we’d trade one player from that High-A infield surplus.

[CheeseheadInQC]

38 minutes ago, damuelle said:

Barrios and Pratt seem to be the priority shortstops based on this year’s innings. I’ve got Baez projected at 3B, Barrios at 2B, Pratt at SS, O’Rae in CF. Once Bitonti (still 17) is ready for Low-A, he’d likely push Baez into a rover role.

I’d be disappointed if we held either of Areinamo or Guilarte back in Low-A, though I understand High-A may look like a bit of a logjam. Maybe we’d trade one player from that High-A infield surplus.

Areinamo I think is a lock. Guilarte, because of the time lost due to injury, is slightly more likely to be held back. I still think both start in high-A, though.

[BrewerFan]

18 hours ago, clancyphile said:

In this case, some of it is due to space. I'm also trying to keep the players grouped by where they played the most in 2023, even if they had significant time elsewhere on the diamond. Wes Clarke was a special case, given that first base was his primary position, but there was also a LOT of time spent at catcher and catcher was somewhat less crowded.

Boeve, for instance, was covered at second base. Pratt and Baez will be covered at short, where they spent most of their time. Honestly, I think the Crew ought to keep Baz at short - he's got an extremely dynamic bat, and it would be a shame to blow that opportunity at shortstop the way they did with third base in 2008.

Welp...I tried to have a serious conversation...

[Harold Hutchison]

3 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Welp...I tried to have a serious conversation...

The similarity to Braun is striking - Baez has a dynamic bat at a position the Brewers may have a need for a dynamic bat, but like Braun, his defense is a little shaky.

Do you keep them at that position where the bat could stand out (third base for Braun, shortstop for Baez) or do you move them and risk leaving a hole in the lineup (recall the merry-go-round at third since 2007)?

My instinct says keep Baez at short - ride a .900 OPS there. Shortstops who post that are very rare, and it shouldn't be passed up. Not that the Crew doesn't have other good shortstop prospects (Devanney, Zamora, Murray, etc.), but Baez's bat is something else, particularly for that position.

[BrewerFan]

15 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

The similarity to Braun is striking - Baez has a dynamic bat at a position the Brewers may have a need for a dynamic bat, but like Braun, his defense is a little shaky.

Do you keep them at that position where the bat could stand out (third base for Braun, shortstop for Baez) or do you move them and risk leaving a hole in the lineup (recall the merry-go-round at third since 2007)?

My instinct says keep Baez at short - ride a .900 OPS there. Shortstops who post that are very rare, and it shouldn't be passed up. Not that the Crew doesn't have other good shortstop prospects (Devanney, Zamora, Murray, etc.), but Baez's bat is something else, particularly for that position.

There's no question with Braun, I'm not touching this. Just STOP. I tried to compliment you, but you have these crazy ideas I've been reading for years. Didn't you want to move Frelick back to the IF?

The Braun at 3B is insane and not worth entertaining and if Baez is as bad at 3B(he's so far away, he may not be)...but no, I'm not throwing a guy who commits an error on 10% of the plays, you're negating his bat and it's entirely counter-productive. The players you've suggested play these different positions they're not physically capable of playing...I'm out. 

 

Braun at 3B loses MOST of his value, how are you STILL making this argument?

 

[CheeseheadInQC]

You keep Baez at least rotating at short for now because of the big difference between the Braun comparison: he is heading into his low-A season. I think you keep a guy at a position in the minors so long as you think there is a 35-40% chance they stick there. Beyond that, move them to get them used to the new position.

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

You keep Baez at least rotating at short for now because of the big difference between the Braun comparison: he is heading into his low-A season. I think you keep a guy at a position in the minors so long as you think there is a 35-40% chance they stick there. Beyond that, move them to get them used to the new position.

Honestly, I'd put the number even lower than that unless you were so flush at the position that it becomes hard to play them at the more premium position.

[Ro Mueller]

Baez didn’t play any shortstop in his final 23 games (including ACL and Low-A playoffs), so I really think that ship has largely sailed.

I’m excited to have solid bat-first third basemen at each level: Black (until promotion), Wilken, Adams, Baez. I understand each one will see continued speculation about possible position moves, but such is life.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

On 11/2/2023 at 5:15 PM, BrewerFan said:

you view some prospects a bit...differently putting more stock in MiLB stats than tools, kinda flipped from conventional wisdom, and I know you catch a little flak for it-especially when you have some Loogy as the #1 prospect-but whatever.

Putting everything into stats in such a contrarian manner (boosting afterthought prospects but not crediting highly regarded ones) leads to hitting on about 1 in 100. Basically Suter so far. You could do better throwing darts at the wall

[Michael Trzinski]

On 11/2/2023 at 9:20 PM, BrewerFan said:

Eh, you're just picturing track guys. Think about most RBs or DBs. 5-10, 204 is normal.

Speed comes in lots of sizes other than fat. What's Trout? 6'1 240? He's thick and a burner. 

But I think his stealing bags is mostly the result of his good base running. 

I get that. I'm just curious of how he goes from 17 to 55. Seems like a huge jump, especially moving up a class or two. I mean, if he could steal 20 bags in the Show, that would be awesome.

 

[BrewerFan]

On 11/5/2023 at 5:17 AM, True Blue Brew Crew said:

Putting everything into stats in such a contrarian manner (boosting afterthought prospects but not crediting highly regarded ones) leads to hitting on about 1 in 100. Basically Suter so far. You could do better throwing darts at the wall

Yeah...I know. I was just trying to be nice, it was a decent write-up about the prospects...and then out came the "blown opportunity like they did in 2008 at 3B," and I realized...what's the point?