Cubs "Keeping an Eye" on Corbin Burnes?

[Matthew Trueblood]

In a surprising (and, frankly, almost incredible) twist, Jesse Rogers of ESPN is reporting that the Cubs are "keeping an eye" on Corbin Burnes, and that the Brewers are open to trading with them. He's not saying for certain that the Crew will sell, or trade Burnes under any circumstance, but he makes clear that Burnes is on the Cubs' radar.

What's up with the Cubs after the hiring of Craig Counsell? Story here on their offseason including a second chance to make a first impression on a certain hitter/pitcher. Hoyer on 2017 pursuit of Ohtani: "I think he was intrigued" ⬇️https://t.co/rV4cnbVQeA

— Jesse Rogers (@JesseRogersESPN) November 16, 2023

That would be wild. Especially in light of the Craig Counsell defection, it is extremely hard to imagine the Brewers being willing to work with the Cubs on a trade that substantial. In all likelihood, the price tag to trade Burnes within the division (much less right down I-94) would be so high that the deal would end up falling apart. Even so, it's fascinating to imagine. 

Would a trade that starts with and centers upon slugging infielder Christopher Morel work for both sides? The Cubs have made him available this fall. Morel has obvious flaws, but also power that exceeds that of any current Brewers. This is, at minimum, a very intriguing rumor with which to start a Thursday morning.

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[nate82]

Just now, Matthew Trueblood said:

Would a trade that starts with and centers upon slugging infielder Christopher Morel work for both sides? The Cubs have made him available this fall. Morel has obvious flaws, but also power that exceeds that of any current Brewers. This is, at minimum, a very intriguing rumor with which to start a Thursday morning.

LOL NO!

At a minimum for a Burnes trade to work with the Cubs it has to start with Horton.  Since it is a the Cubs you need to add an extra $10mm in valuation towards Burnes which would bring Burnes excess value up to about $45mm.  So in the end a more realistic trade scenario is Burnes for Horton, Triantos and Ferris.  Anything less than that and the Brewers walk away.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, nate82 said:

LOL NO!

At a minimum for a Burnes trade to work with the Cubs it has to start with Horton.  Since it is a the Cubs you need to add an extra $10mm in valuation towards Burnes which would bring Burnes excess value up to about $45mm.  So in the end a more realistic trade scenario is Burnes for Horton, Triantos and Ferris.  Anything less than that and the Brewers walk away.

If the Cubs were willing to offer Horton for Burnes straight-up, I'd probably do it (assuming the Brewers like what projection they see in Horton, which is probably the case).

[Bob Wagner]

Sounds like the Cubs have a lot of money, let's sell Burnes to the Cubs and use the money to acquire a few blue chip prospects to fill some holes including those at starting pitchers?

 

[nate82]

4 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

If the Cubs were willing to offer Horton for Burnes straight-up, I'd probably do it (assuming the Brewers like what projection they see in Horton, which is probably the case).

Not enough value for a straight up swap the Cubs would have to add more.  Since it is within the division these are rare trades and I think the Cubs would have to overpay to get Burnes.  It would have to be more than what anyone else is willing to pay for Burnes so the extra $10mm in valuation added. 

Burnes is about $35mm in excess value and Horton is about $30mm.  You would need to add about $10mm more from the Cubs side for a trade to work or about $5mm more than what another team is offering for Burnes. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, Bob Wagner said:

Sounds like the Cubs have a lot of money, let's sell Burnes to the Cubs and use the money to acquire a few blue chip prospects to fill some holes including those at starting pitchers?

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

I think the Cubs might spend big this offseason and they have a farm system that's very enticing. I'm not one to shy away from divisional trades if the deal is right.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, nate82 said:

Not enough value for a straight up swap the Cubs would have to add more.  Since it is within the division these are rare trades and I think the Cubs would have to overpay to get Burnes.  It would have to be more than what anyone else is willing to pay for Burnes so the extra $10mm in valuation added. 

Burnes is about $35mm in excess value and Horton is about $30mm.  You would need to add about $10mm more from the Cubs side for a trade to work or about $5mm more than what another team is offering for Burnes. 

I think that's close enough that the Brewers may shut down the conversation or eagerly snatch up Horton in equal measure.

If the Brewers have Horton as a $40m guy, it's a very different story (and we really have no idea what the Brewers think of him, only that their pitching people are smarter than we are).

[Jake McKibbin]

3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I think that's close enough that the Brewers may shut down the conversation or eagerly snatch up Horton in equal measure.

If the Brewers have Horton as a $40m guy, it's a very different story (and we really have no idea what the Brewers think of him, only that their pitching people are smarter than we are).

Well this is fun having just written a handbook piece on it... the Cubs have a very intriguing farm system, and Horton is probably the jewel (for my money even more than PCA). I also wouldn't mind this trade at all if we got to raid their system, and Burnes left after a year, though that compensatory CBA pick would have to be factored into the deal value wise

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Well this is fun having just written a handbook piece on it... the Cubs have a very intriguing farm system, and Horton is probably the jewel (for my money even more than PCA). I also wouldn't mind this trade at all if we got to raid their system, and Burnes left after a year, though that compensatory CBA pick would have to be factored into the deal value wise

It would suck if the Cubs signed Burnes to a long-term deal but that might happen after 2024 anyway.

[Jake McKibbin]

I definitely can't see Morel being the center piece of this in any way mind, he's probably had a career year with that .821 OPS, but no defensive home limited him to just 1.2 WAR on the season. For Burnes, they'd need somewhere closer to top prospect capital, especially from the Cubs

[Jake McKibbin]

22 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Not enough value for a straight up swap the Cubs would have to add more.  Since it is within the division these are rare trades and I think the Cubs would have to overpay to get Burnes.  It would have to be more than what anyone else is willing to pay for Burnes so the extra $10mm in valuation added. 

Burnes is about $35mm in excess value and Horton is about $30mm.  You would need to add about $10mm more from the Cubs side for a trade to work or about $5mm more than what another team is offering for Burnes. 

I'd also maybe disagree with this slightly given how much Horton developed towards the end of the season, especially his changeup. Six-seven years of Horton is fair in all likelihood, but the rivalry probably requires a little extra

[Fear The Chorizo]

16 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

Well this is fun having just written a handbook piece on it... the Cubs have a very intriguing farm system, and Horton is probably the jewel (for my money even more than PCA). I also wouldn't mind this trade at all if we got to raid their system, and Burnes left after a year, though that compensatory CBA pick would have to be factored into the deal value wise

For Horton, I sure as heck hope he's viewed as a better MLB player longterm than PCA - otherwise there's no way in hell he's worth 1 year of free agent year Burnes straight up via trade.  Interesting over/under to think about is who will get their 1st MLB hit 1st - PCA or Chourio...even if PCA makes the opening day roster and Chourio isn't called up until mid June?   

[wiguy94]

LMAO at the suggestion that Morel would be an acceptable centerpiece for the Brewers. Did you just copy and paste this from northside baseball?

[TURBO]

2 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

LMAO at the suggestion that Morel would be an acceptable centerpiece for the Brewers. Did you just copy and paste this from northside baseball?

This is what we get when a Cubs fan is allowed to write for a Brewers fan site.

It's ridiculous.

[Lathund]

Morels contact rate and swinging strike rate is atrocious. It's Baez-like, y'know without the excellent SS defense. Maybe he can stick at 2B, but seems like someone who will mostly be relegated to DH duties already aged 24. It's the kind of profile at the plate where regression seems far more likely than improvement. The Cubs giving up on him already is a big red flag as well. 

I'm not kidding myself about Burnes' trade value; it's only one season after all. But for the Brewers to trade him to the Cubs of all teams; a division rival with the kind of revenue to easily be able to afford an extension (If ownership finally decides to spend), then what we're looking at isn't a trade that's "fair". They overpay or they look elsewhere. 

Morel isn't terrible, and you'd get 4 years of him. But I want more potential upside in a trade than a DH who might have power, but also has a big hole in his bat. 

[Jake McKibbin]

9 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

LMAO at the suggestion that Morel would be an acceptable centerpiece for the Brewers. Did you just copy and paste this from northside baseball?

 

6 minutes ago, TURBO said:

This is what we get when a Cubs fan is allowed to write for a Brewers fan site.

It's ridiculous.

It's actually the mention in the article rather than Matt's view!

It also refers to Horton as potentially the best pitching prospect in baseball by next season

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

 

It's actually the mention in the article rather than Matt's view!

It also refers to Horton as potentially the best pitching prospect in baseball by next season

This is what someone from baseball prospectus has to say about Jesse Rogers being a mouthpiece for Jed Hoyer. Trueblood as a Cubs fan should know better. It’s insulting to post on a Brewers board that Morel could be the centerpiece of a Burnes trade. 

[Jake McKibbin]

3 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

This is what someone from baseball prospectus has to say about Jesse Rogers being a mouthpiece for Jed Hoyer. Trueblood as a Cubs fan should know better. It’s insulting to post on a Brewers board that Morel could be the centerpiece of a Burnes trade. 

That's entirely fair, I actually didn't realise they were talking about him for Alonso too... it'll not happen, though I could see Morel being part of the equation..

I'm not saying he's not valuable, they're trying Morel at first I believe in winter leagues to get him some ability to get 500+ AB's per year, in which case he's a thirty home run guy with a large hole in his bat. Rowdy Tellez is kind of that already (I'm not saying he will be better 2024, but it is reasonable to call 2023 an outlier year for him). The Brewers will want middle infielders with bats, or starting pitching

[wiguy94]

12 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

 

It's actually the mention in the article rather than Matt's view

Also did you think you could just straight up lie and get away with it? This is the only part where Burnes is mentioned. Where does it mention Morel as the centerpiece in a potential Burnes trade? Oh wait Morel was mentioned as the centerpiece of a Pete Alonso trade earlier in the article…do you think we are just stupid and you can lie straight to our faces and we will believe it?

[Jake McKibbin]

6 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Also did you think you could just straight up lie and get away with it? This is the only part where Burnes is mentioned. Where does it mention Morel as the centerpiece in a potential Burnes trade? Oh wait Morel was mentioned as the centerpiece of a Pete Alonso trade earlier in the article…do you think we are just stupid and you can lie straight to our faces and we will believe it?

My bad, completely misread it, thought they were referring to him as a centerpiece for Burnes, evidently glanced over it!

Certainly not calling people here stupid my friend, just an honest mistake

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I definitely can't see Morel being the center piece of this in any way mind, he's probably had a career year with that .821 OPS, but no defensive home limited him to just 1.2 WAR on the season. For Burnes, they'd need somewhere closer to top prospect capital, especially from the Cubs

I'm not high on Morel so I'd definitely pass on this from the Brewers' side of things.

[Brock Beauchamp]

11 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Also did you think you could just straight up lie and get away with it? This is the only part where Burnes is mentioned. Where does it mention Morel as the centerpiece in a potential Burnes trade? Oh wait Morel was mentioned as the centerpiece of a Pete Alonso trade earlier in the article…do you think we are just stupid and you can lie straight to our faces and we will believe it?

Don't attribute to malice what is more likely explained by a simple mistake.

[brewmann04]

NO way are they going trade him to Chicago

that will be to much to take

[Redd Vencher]

A reasonable trade for Burnes to the Cubs would be Horton, Cassie/Shaw, and another piece or 2 further away or Morel as the 3rd piece if you want to go that way. If a Burnes to Cubs trade happens, it won't be reasonable.

[Brewcrew82]

Sure, and I'm keeping an eye on Cade Horton and Matt Shaw.