Heyman: Rivals Believe There's Decent Chance Corbin Burnes is Traded

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

22 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

How about Burnes to the Rangers? 

 

The Rangers have some very nice prospects, but like the Brewers, many of them are outfielders. That said, Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford are stud OF prospects, and Brock Porter is a very projectable TOR-type starting pitcher, although he's only 20. 

[jay87shot]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

The Rangers have some very nice prospects, but like the Brewers, many of them are outfielders. That said, Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford are stud OF prospects, and Brock Porter is a very projectable TOR-type starting pitcher, although he's only 20. 

I like the depth of the Rangers prospects, they would be one of the teams I wouldn't need a top 50 prospect involved. Ortiz would be a great 1B prospect to get, Foscue and Harris would seem to be the style of hitter our leadership likes, Leiter, Rocker, White, Stephen, Curry, and Bratt are all solid prospect arms (to go with Porter).  Sebastian Walcott is a hugely skilled 17 year old who played a few A+ games for whatever reason.

A package of say Ortiz, Foscue, Leiter/White, and Stephan/Curry would be a huge get in my opinion even if there are no current top 100 prospects.

 

[jay87shot]

Does the recent Glasnow trade set a relative value on Burnes? 

Glasnow, Margot (4 million) for Pepiot and DeLuca

Margot probably has no/negative trade value, I will say the 4 million paid wipes out he Margot part. Burnes will make $10 less, doesn't have injury issues, and a longer track record of success. That value should be worth a top 50-100 prospect. So a trade should net, a top 50-100 or better prospect, a borderline 100 prospect (Pepiot), and an interesting upper middle tier 3rd piece (DeLuca). 

[Ro Mueller]

With Scherzer’s back surgery, what are the latest Burnes 2024 odds?:

- Rangers - 25%
- Orioles - 25%
- Brewers - 40%
- Other - 10%

[wibadgers23]

1 hour ago, damuelle said:

With Scherzer’s back surgery, what are the latest Burnes 2024 odds?:

- Rangers - 25%
- Orioles - 25%
- Brewers - 40%
- Other - 10%

At this point, I'd guess:

Rangers - 20%

Orioles - 10%

Brewers - 60%

Other - 10%

 

[Austin Tatious]

Texas might be my favorite trade partner if we can get Porter and others.  I definitely want pitching back with upside.  

Then I have no problem dealing Williams to Baltimore for a package involving Mayo.  

I’m comfortable with the back of the bullpen headlined by Uribe, Megill, and Milner.  You’d still have Payamps in a setup role.  

Upcoming infield involving Mayo, Black, Dunn, Turang and Wilken in the next couple of years.  Personally I would extend Adames since Burnes and Williams would be gone and there would be money.   Adames has leadership qualities that can be overlooked when looking at stats.  

Young starting pitching with Gasser, Porter, Rodriguez, hopefully Mis.   Good young OF. 

That young core would be exciting to build from.  

Hopefully we hit college pitching hard in the ‘24 draft and international market. 

[nate82]

24 minutes ago, Austin Tatious said:

Texas might be my favorite trade partner if we can get Porter and others.  I definitely want pitching back with upside.

I think something like Leiter, Porter and Abimelic Ortiz (1B/DH) would be close to Burnes value.  Porter has about $20mm in surplus value with Leiter having about $8mm and Ortiz with about $4mm.  That gets you to $32mm in excess value.  Which is about where Burnes is sitting at.

I believe Burnes value is a bit lower in the current trade market so this would be a bit of an overpay by the Rangers.

[Brewcrew82]

39 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I think something like Leiter, Porter and Abimelic Ortiz (1B/DH) would be close to Burnes value.  Porter has about $20mm in surplus value with Leiter having about $8mm and Ortiz with about $4mm.  That gets you to $32mm in excess value.  Which is about where Burnes is sitting at.

I believe Burnes value is a bit lower in the current trade market so this would be a bit of an overpay by the Rangers.

Not worth trading him then. You either get what he’s worth or hold him and run it back with a 92 win team.

[jay87shot]

5 hours ago, nate82 said:

I think something like Leiter, Porter and Abimelic Ortiz (1B/DH) would be close to Burnes value.  Porter has about $20mm in surplus value with Leiter having about $8mm and Ortiz with about $4mm.  That gets you to $32mm in excess value.  Which is about where Burnes is sitting at.

I believe Burnes value is a bit lower in the current trade market so this would be a bit of an overpay by the Rangers.

This is what makes valuing prospects so difficult, I really like Ortiz and almost value him as high as Porter. I am sure the Rangers do to however the Rangers have on of the better young 1B in the league in Nate Lowe. I would jump at any Porter, Ortiz, and 3rd piece deal even if both are over a year away.

I think a lot of where Burnes will go will ride on where Yamamoto, Snell, and Montgomery go. If say the Yankees get Yamamoto and AL East teams don't get a big starter I could see there being a lot of pressure in Boston/Balt./Toronto to add someone like Burnes. Maybe the Dodgers miss out and feel compelled to add Burnes. Odds are tough to gauge until those 3 sign then it should be clear who will be desperate and overpay for Corbin. For now I say Brewers=25%, Dodgers 15%, Giants 15 %, Rangers 15 %, O's 15%, Other 15%. 

[DR28]

Not sure how legit but saw on Twitter, Red Sox are making push towards Burnes trade.... And mentions Orioles are involved as well.

[Lloyd330]

Where you see that?

[DR28]

Was MLB Scoops or something on Twitter.

[Madhawk23]

Do we think Jack Leiter is a complete "bust" at this point, or are there some things with his repertoire/mechanics that we might be able to fix in the pitching lab?  

IF our FO thought there was still potential in Leiter, then I wouldn't hate a Leiter, Porter, Foscue and Ortiz package coming back for Burnes.  

I'd worry though that this might be more of quantity over quality deal for the Brewers.  Leiter is a huge wildcard, Porter is still a few years away probably from getting to the big leagues (but with big upside), Foscue on paper sounds a lot like Tyler Black, and while Ortiz's power is enticing - he's a guy that is only going to be good as either a 1B or at DH.  

The Rangers might also scoff and the idea of giving up four of their top prospects in exchange for a SP with only one year left before FA.  

[Scooterfletcher]

My favorite package is a five pack from the dodgers:   Using BTV, it works but who knows how accurate that would be to Mil and LAD:

But Burnes and Adames for Frasso, Stone, Ryan, Martin, Wroblewski.   Five starting pitching prospects,   Frasso and Stone can start from day one and Ryan not far behind.   Martin and Wroblewski don’t need to be on 40 man roster yet.   Dodgers get to fill their SS hole as well and get to keep Sheehan.  We’d be getting prospects 4,5,8,10,20 from their mlb top 30. 
 

Id do this if we could do something like Peralta and Taylor for Hall and Julien.   Love our offense after this deal and love the potential growth of our starters .   We’d be set imo.

[Playing Catch]

Is anyone else tired of the Dodgers? I feel like the rest of the league should just boycott dealing with them. Let their top prospects rot, pick them off one-by-one in the rule 5 draft.

I'm at the point where if it's the Dodgers or no one, I'm keeping Burnes out of spite.

[Madhawk23]

20 hours ago, Scooterfletcher said:

My favorite package is a five pack from the dodgers:   Using BTV, it works but who knows how accurate that would be to Mil and LAD:

But Burnes and Adames for Frasso, Stone, Ryan, Martin, Wroblewski.   Five starting pitching prospects,   Frasso and Stone can start from day one and Ryan not far behind.   Martin and Wroblewski don’t need to be on 40 man roster yet.   Dodgers get to fill their SS hole as well and get to keep Sheehan.  We’d be getting prospects 4,5,8,10,20 from their mlb top 30. 
 

Id do this if we could do something like Peralta and Taylor for Hall and Julien.   Love our offense after this deal and love the potential growth of our starters .   We’d be set imo.

I could certainly get behind a deal like this.  I just wish we then had a better option at SS with Adames leaving.  I would probably more prefer a Burnes/Adames to LA deal for Lux, either Frasso or Stone, Ryan, Martin and Wrobleski deal. Or, if you could get the Dodgers to give up Sheehan in the deal, maybe you could swing a Lux, Sheehan, Ryan and Wrobleski type package?  I think a deal like this would be better for both sides, as the Brewers could then two MLB ready guys to fill in for Burnes and Adames this year in Sheehan and Lux.  

[DR28]

I honestly believe we can forget about Burnes being dealt to Baltimore... They haven't ever shown willing to deal prospects for one year rental... For ***** sake, they havent ever shown willing to deal prospects... They just horde for w/e reason.

[wibadgers23]

I’m beginning to think Burnes doesn’t get dealt period. Just doesn’t seem like the Brewers are real motivated to move him and I’m guessing their asking price is too high for a one year rental. I think he’ll be the Brewers’s OD starter.

[Playing Catch]

3 hours ago, DR28 said:

I honestly believe we can forget about Burnes being dealt to Baltimore... They haven't ever shown willing to deal prospects for one year rental... For ***** sake, they havent ever shown willing to deal prospects... They just horde for w/e reason.

As an organizational strategy, in that division, the O's need to stockpile talent. I haven't looked, but I would imagine that even if they've got guys would have to be rostered on the 40-man, they have options. No reason to trade them until they know they will lose them.