Tampa Bay Shopping First Baseman Harold Ramirez

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported in today's roundup that the Rays, despite having a very busy offseason already, are looking to shop arbitration-eligible first baseman Harold Ramirez.

Ramirez, 29 years old, has two seasons of team control remaining. The big righty has posted an OPS+ of 121 over his past 896 plate appearances (the 2022 and 2023 seasons). Ramirez has primarily played first base, corner outfield, and DH the past two seasons. His defensive metrics at first base are concerning, though in limited playing time (only ~250 innings the past two seasons).

Is this of interest to the Brewers? Do his defensive limitations more than offset his badly-needed bat in the Crew lineup?

View full rumor

[sveumrules]

No thanks.

Can't field (-13 DRS | -11 OAA in the OF and -6 DRS | -4 OAA in only 278 innings at 1B) and never walks (4.4 BB% ranks 199th of 202 batters with at least 1,500 PA from 2019-22).

His profile is entirely dependent on his batted ball results. 

[Brewcrew82]

11 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported in today's roundup that the Rays, despite having a very busy offseason already, are looking to shop arbitration-eligible first baseman Harold Ramirez.

Ramirez, 29 years old, has two seasons of team control remaining. The big righty has posted an OPS+ of 121 over his past 896 plate appearances (the 2022 and 2023 seasons). Ramirez has primarily played first base, corner outfield, and DH the past two seasons. His defensive metrics at first base are concerning, though in limited playing time (only ~250 innings the past two seasons).

Is this of interest to the Brewers? Do his defensive limitations more than offset his badly-needed bat in the Crew lineup?

 

View full rumor

 

Depends what the Rays want back. I'd be very careful about trading with them, but if the price is right, sure. Wouldn't trade anyone in our top 10.

Though, this FO prioritizes defense, so idk if they'd want him over Santana. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

13 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Depends what the Rays want back. I'd be very careful about trading with them, but if the price is right, sure. Wouldn't trade anyone in our top 10.

Though, this FO prioritizes defense, so idk if they'd want him over Santana. 

I'm not too worried about the Rays. They're really smart but so are the Brewers. Stearns did alright with the Adames trade.

[TURBO]

I'd take a year of Santana over two years of Ramirez, especially it it costs us a top 50 guy.

Pass.

[JohnBriggs12]

16 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

No thanks.

Can't field (-13 DRS | -11 OAA in the OF and -6 DRS | -4 OAA in only 278 innings at 1B) and never walks (4.4 BB% ranks 199th of 202 batters with at least 1,500 PA from 2019-22).

His profile is entirely dependent on his batted ball results. 

But he's hit for a high average at every level.  His .289 major league average over almost 1,700 major league plate appearances isn't a fluke and would be very welcome in this lineup.  He's no Tyrone Taylor in the outfield but his bat is certainly one they could use to make up for the loss of both Canha and Taylor and there should be plenty of AB's available in the DH role.  We saw how well the Brewers offense functioned down the stretch last year with a guy like Canha and a hot Taylor.  He wouldn't preclude them from also adding someone like Santana either to handle most of the first base duties.

[TURBO]

4 minutes ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

But he's hit for a high average at every level.  His .289 major league average over almost 1,700 major league plate appearances isn't a fluke and would be very welcome in this lineup.  He's no Tyrone Taylor in the outfield but his bat is certainly one they could use to make up for the loss of both Canha and Taylor and there should be plenty of AB's available in the DH role.  We saw how well the Brewers offense functioned down the stretch last year with a guy like Canha and a hot Taylor.  He wouldn't preclude them from also adding someone like Santana either to handle most of the first base duties.

true...

[BlazingGunz]

To platoon with Bauers, wouldn't be that bad of an option.  Can play OF in a pinch (like Bauers).   But I wouldn't give up much.   Freddy Zamora probably the top level of prospect I would even think about.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

But he's hit for a high average at every level.  His .289 major league average over almost 1,700 major league plate appearances isn't a fluke and would be very welcome in this lineup.

His average is good, no doubt, but he doesn’t walk and doesn’t hit for power either. His .130 isolated slugging is 23% below league average and lines up with guys like Andrew Benintendi (.128) and Whit Merrifield (.132).

His value is pretty much entirely dependent on hitting singles.

He also has pretty wide platoon splits at 275/314/404 (99 wRC+) in 1,103 PAs vs RHP compared to 323/363/453 (129 wRC+) in 470 PAs vs LHP.

So given no defensive value and middling performance vs RHP, his ideal usage would probably be as a DH only vs LHP.

[brewmann04]

I agree have Carlos back on a cheap deal then a guy who lacks Power and cost us more prospects.

[sveumrules]

Harold Ramirez’s own career is a pretty good example of how certain attributes are stickier year to year, while others are prone to much more variance.

From 2019-21, he had a 4.0 BB%, 18.2 K% and .134 ISO over 818 PAs.

From 2022-23 he had a 4.7 BB%, 17.6 K% and .126 ISO over 869 PAs.

Pretty close across the board. Big difference came in his BABIP.

2019-21 was only .315, which shook out to a .271 batting average and 92 wRC+.

2022-23 was up at .354, which shook out to a .306 batting average and 123 wRC+.

Even over his two recent “good” years you can see the diminishing returns of his skill set. Among 201 players with at least 750 PAs from 2022-23…

His .354 BABIP and .306 BA are both 5th, but with a 4.4 BB% (198th) and .126 ISO (167th), his 123 wRC+ only ranks 46th.

Throw in -22.0 DEF (176th) and his 3.0 WAR ranks 125th of the 201 player sample.

[brewcrewdue80]

Savant doesn't show 1 piece of upside trend.  Not much downside trend, but is trending down, by swinging at 1st pitches more with bottom of league chase rates last 2 seasons. It'd be like acquiring an expensive FA that you knew was overpaid.  He's a future non tender candidate maybe after this upcoming season. Trading any top 20 prospect would be an overpay.

 

Just adding, Tyler black has a better profile to do what Ramirez does but far more upside. Why take away the chances Black could outperform that?

[sveumrules]

This FanGraphs link does a really good job breaking down the unconventional means by which Ramirez has gone about racking up the singles.

Lots of cool stuff in there, but one interesting note is he has been among the best pinch hitters in MLB for his career.

Since 2019 there are 88 players with at least 50 PH PAs with Harold coming in at .393 BA (2nd) and 157 wRC+ (7th).

Another interesting name at the top of the leaderboard was Tyrone Taylor at .357 BA (4th) and 205 wRC+ (2nd).

But the 2019-23 min 50 PAs Pinch Hit King has been currently unsigned old friend Ji Man Choi at .421 BA and 224 wRC+.

[alwz4gbp]

Yes yes yes yes.  While this regime places a priority on defense, even that has been a glaring weakness at 1st base since Cooper left.  Neither he, nor Keith Hernandez is walking through the door prior to spring training.  They can't keep hoping for a scrap heap pick up to save the day.  The dude can hit, so let him hit.  

[gregmag]

It seems like people’s argument *for* him is that he can almost hit .290. No one is arguing that he does anything else well. If his average tapers off at this point on the aging curve, as it does for most hitters, you could very easily (not worst case) be looking at a .275 hitter who can’t field, hit for power, walk, or run, soaking up PAs at DH and 1b. How exactly is that better than Owen Miller?

[Michael Trzinski]

56 minutes ago, gregmag said:

It seems like people’s argument *for* him is that he can almost hit .290. No one is arguing that he does anything else well. If his average tapers off at this point on the aging curve, as it does for most hitters, you could very easily (not worst case) be looking at a .275 hitter who can’t field, hit for power, walk, or run, soaking up PAs at DH and 1b. How exactly is that better than Owen Miller?

Comparison (career numbers)
BA
Ramirez .289
Miller .241

OPS
Ramirez .748
Miller .638

Although he is not a huge power guy, H-Ram would hit 15-20 HRs for Milwaukee. Use him and Contreras at DH and let Yelich, et al. fend for themselves. I think it would be a good pick-up.

[alwz4gbp]

2 hours ago, gregmag said:

It seems like people’s argument *for* him is that he can almost hit .290. No one is arguing that he does anything else well. If his average tapers off at this point on the aging curve, as it does for most hitters, you could very easily (not worst case) be looking at a .275 hitter who can’t field, hit for power, walk, or run, soaking up PAs at DH and 1b. How exactly is that better than Owen Miller?

Ouch, Punched all kinds of holes in my argument.  I'm wounded.  I see your point.  I just really wanna see a real hitter.  The fascination with HRs is killing me.  Play small ball.  Way more entertaining and I don't care if "Chicks dig the long ball".  

 

[brewcrewdue80]

Think of Ramirez as the SP like Zach Davies. He carries a high ba but his fip according to Savant is one he shouldn't carry one that high. His career OPS fip looks to be right at 700.  But he carries 748 on his 5 season career.   742 I believe ops expected by savant vs the 813 high point in his career actual.  He's not fast so that's not why he's outperforming expectations like Mitchell rookie month. Tampa is going to do what they do, sell high and make another team regret they traded with them.  He's due a below 700 OPS season as Tellez just showed is possible after a breakout year.