Could the Brewers Trade for Marlins First Baseman Luis Arraez?

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Brewers have only done the bare minimum to supplement an offense that was anemic in 2023. Could they add a hitter trying to win his third straight batting title to shore up first base for 2024?

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

In a Twitter Space Tuesday night, venerable Marlins reporter Craig Mish mused that the Fish could end up trading Luis Arraez as soon as this winter. Arraez, who will turn 27 in April, is a .326 career hitter, and although he faded after a first-half flirtation with .400 in 2023, he still ended that campaign at .354, to win his second straight batting title. He'd also taken home the AL crown in 2022, edging out Aaron Judge to rob him of a Triple Crown, before being traded from the Twins to the Marlins in the Pablo Lopez deal last winter.

There might not be any team in MLB to whom Arraez has more value than Miami, because he's a charismatic young venezolano and because his offensive profile is less diminished by pitcher-friendly loanDepot Park than that of just about anyone else in baseball. However, he's also just two years away from free agency, and MLB Trade Rumors projected him to make $10.8 million via arbitration in 2024. Given the way the arbitration system rewards traditional stats and Arraez's excellence in those areas, he could cost as much as $30 million over the two remaining years of club control. 

The Marlins are, perpetually but especially right now, essentially in a worse version of the Brewers' situation. Like the Brewers, they're unsure of their future local TV rights deal, and theirs figures to be one market in which the popping of the broadcast bubble results in a significant decrease in annual revenue from that source. Unlike the Crew, though, Miami perennially struggles to draw fans to the park, so without TV revenues, they have much less on which to fall back. Any MLB team can afford to pay a great player $11 million, but the Marlins have both real and self-imposed financial constraints, and (sooner or later) they've traded away just about every good player they've ever had.

New head honcho of baseball operations Peter Bendix comes from the Rays, who also try to trade a player a year early, rather than a year late. Since he was just hired this fall, Arraez also isn't his prize acquisition. Nor does Arraez necessarily fit with the offensive philosophy Bendix brings over from Tampa Bay, where they place more of an emphasis on the ability to either hit the ball hard at an unusually high rate or pull the ball in the air a lot. Arraez's brilliance, of course, lies in making lots of contact, rather than in doing either of those things.

Mish also mentioned in the aforementioned Spaces discussion that he thinks any returns the Marlins seek in trades this winter will be focused on long-term help, rather than immediate impact. That suggests that the Brewers could land Arraez without giving up someone they expect to make a big difference in 2024. It would still have to be a substantial move, costing a couple of valuable prospects, but it wouldn't need to take a bite out of the 2024 roster in the process of upgrading it.

The big question is how much of an upgrade Arraez would be, given the construction of the Brewers' lineup. They badly need help at first base, and second base isn't entirely sewn up, either. However, in Christian Yelich and William Contreras, the team's two best hitters are already ground ball guys whose game power lags behind their raw pop. The only knock anyone has offered so far on Jackson Chourio is that he hits too many ground balls. He's likely to eventually make the adjustment and find his power, but in his first year or two, he could underperform in the power department, too. Can the Crew really afford another hit-over-power guy?

Yes. Arraez is too good to let an imperfect alignment between needs and skills stand in the way. As I wrote yesterday, the Brewers struggle mightily against fastballs with a flat vertical approach angle (VAA). Arraez handles them about as well as anyone in baseball. 

It's easier to see, and thus to focus on, the dearth of slug from which the Brewers suffered last year, but they also had a slightly below-average .319 team OBP. With Arraez, Yelich, Contreras, and Sal Frelick in the middle of the lineup picture, they could improve on that by a solid 20 points in 2024. Even without adding tremendous power, they could realize a big offensive improvement, with a lineup that relentlessly gets on base and brings those runners around on a parade of hits.

What do you think of Arraez as an alternative to some of the more conventional but lower-ceiling free agents whom the team could pursue to fill their vacancy at first base? Sound off below.

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[Doug B]

Yelich should be the first baseman. It would solve many problems on the roster. If he refuses to try the position, then I lose respect for the highest paid player in team history. 

[old hickory]

10 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Yelich should be the first baseman. It would solve many problems on the roster. If he refuses to try the position, then I lose respect for the highest paid player in team history. 

While that move makes sense in the future, it diminishes his current value... he played pretty good LF last year, so I would be surprised if the Brewers moved him until he proves to be a liability in the OF 

[Trax]

Don't trade the farm for any one player, especially with 2 years of control or less.  Small market teams need to be always looking to improve any way they can but also always to be looking to trade FOR farm.

[jay87shot]

Last year would have been the time to get him, his trade value/return is probably higher than past year with a year less control. I wonder if we tried to trade Lauer/Houser + more for him last year or not. Anyway I am sure the asking price would be like Black, Gasser/Rodriguez, and Lara which would be to much for me.

[JohnBriggs12]

51 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Yelich should be the first baseman. It would solve many problems on the roster. If he refuses to try the position, then I lose respect for the highest paid player in team history. 

So who plays LF?  They traded Taylor and didn't pick up Canha's option.  Wiemer showed he's not ready last season.  Frelick doesn't have the power to really be an everyday player at a corner outfield spot.  Mitchell is essentially still a rookie and Chourio probably could use at least a couple months at AAA.  One of those guys figures to be in CF.  Ramirez could be a decent trade option to play LF.  Maybe they could get Eloy Jimenez?  

[Matthew Trueblood]

1 hour ago, Doug B said:

Yelich should be the first baseman. It would solve many problems on the roster. If he refuses to try the position, then I lose respect for the highest paid player in team history. 

Then you'll have to go ahead and lose that respect for him. Haha. I can tell you they broached the subject (though not insistently). He said no. And for the record, I don't think it makes a huge difference right now. I do get what you're seeing, though. Might be easier to plug a hole in left with a power hitter, long-term, than to do so at first.

[Matt Breen]

5 hours ago, Doug B said:

Yelich should be the first baseman. It would solve many problems on the roster. If he refuses to try the position, then I lose respect for the highest paid player in team history. 

Team already said that Yelich is playing LF. Whether we want Yeli at 1B or not, the team said it's not happening. So I'm not sure why we dwell on it. Maybe down the road we can revisit, but for now, it isn't happening.

[Matt Breen]

I've always liked Arraez, and having him would be awesome. But what's the trade? The Marlins will want young talent. What's it going to take?

Would Turang and Wiemer work? I don't think that's enough. Maybe replace one of those guys with Black? 

I'm not sure what the Marlins need, but I'm guessing they'd ask for Quero or Misiorowski. Not thrilled about dealing either of those guys, especially the former. 

I guess it can't hurt to ask. We got Contreras for Ruiz last year - so you never know.

[wibadgers23]

I was hoping for a Burnes-Arraez trade last offseason with the Twins. Always thought he’d be perfect in our lineup but with only two years left of team control, not sure he makes a ton of sense at this point.

[Fear The Chorizo]

On 1/10/2024 at 8:36 AM, Doug B said:

Yelich should be the first baseman. It would solve many problems on the roster. If he refuses to try the position, then I lose respect for the highest paid player in team history. 

Playing a game defensively at a corner OF position requires far less stress on a player's back compared to 1B when you think of how an infielder gets into position at every pitch, stretches/plays at 1B trying to dig balls out of the dirt, hold runners on, etc.  I don't care if Yelich wanted to play 1B, I wouldn't put him there.  He's going to remain the team's LF and eventually transition to a DH who can play OF in a pinch.