Don’t Forget The Farm: Milwaukee’s Big Improvements Could Be Home-Grown

[Harold Hutchison]

There has been considerable debate about the lack of big moves in the 2023-2024 offseason. Some are expressing concerns, while others are urging people to wait and see. But is there a way that the Brewers plan to improve in 2024 that involves neither big deals nor standing pat?

Image courtesy of Casey Gower, Nashville Sounds (photo of Gasser), Mike Krebs, Biloxi Shuckers (photo of Misiorowski), Carlos Hurtado (photo of Carlos Rodriguez)

 

The fact is, some of the holes the Brewers currently have (third base, first base, designated hitter, starting rotation after Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, and Wade Miley) could easily be filled from the farm system--and even improved upon from 2023, whether directly or indirectly. It won’t cost the Crew anything, except having to clear spots on the 40-man roster. How might that happen? Let’s take a look around the diamond.

First Base/Designated Hitter
As of now, the depth chart at Brewers.com lists Jake Bauers as the team’s starter at both first base and designated hitter. The Crew is hoping that, like Rowdy Tellez, he can come alive at American Family Field, even though his track record shows he is more of a three-true-outcomes bat who has major issues hitting for contact.

That being said, the farm system could change that situation in one of several ways. Tyler Black could end up at either first base or designated hitter, should the Crew decide his arm isn’t up for the hot corner. That would be a direct improvement for them at either position over 2023, with Black replacing the .667 OPS of Tellez at first or the .567 OPS of Jesse Winker at DH. Wes Clarke, who broke into MLB Pipeline’s list of Brewers prospects, could also be a factor after a monster season in Biloxi and the Arizona Fall League.

There are multiple scenarios for indirect improvement at these positions as well, still due to the farm. Jeferson Quero, the No. 32 prospect in the MLB Pipeline Top 100, could force William Contreras up the first base line or have him serve as the primary DH when he arrives. The Crew won’t call a Top 100 prospect up to be the backup catcher.

Then there is the arrival of Jackson Chourio in Milwaukee, following his record-breaking contract. Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, and Joey Wiemer all provided contributions to one extent or another in 2023, and could improve a lot. That already was putting pressure on Christian Yelich. Add the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball to the list, and Yelich could spend a lot of time at DH or finally pick up a first baseman’s glove, even though he never played that position in the pros (the Marlins originally drafted him as a first baseman). Alas, that is emphatically not in the plans right now, but it has to be a conversation at some point.

Third Base
Andruw Monasterio emerged as the team’s primary third baseman in the second half of the 2023 season, earning Top Rookie honors from Brewer Fanatic. He was not horrible, providing a lot of doubles and OBP skills while also proving very competent on the defensive side. That said, there is room for improvement on the offensive side of things.

In 2023, Black performed well at both Double-A Biloxi and Triple-A Nashville. In essence, his bat had nothing left to prove in the minors. His defense at third has been a non-liability, as well, which means that during spring training, Black (the No. 51 prospect in the minors) could very well win the third-base job and start on Opening Day. Even if he drops 100 OPS points from the .930 he posted in 2023, Black still represents about 150 points of improvement over Monasterio (.678 OPS) and Brian Anderson (also .678) at the hot corner. Not too shabby.

There is also the chance of a direct bump coming from offseason acquisitions Oliver Dunn and Vinny Capra, not to mention 2022-2023 offseason pick-up Owen Miller. Prospects Zavier Warren and Patrick Dorrian could also be surprise candidates to see time at third, and fellow prospect Freddy Zamora could allow the Crew to consider dealing Willy Adames at some point in the season for help at the hot corner.

Starting Rotation
Janson Junk, acquired in the Hunter Renfroe trade, was a solid starter at Triple-A Nashville, and at the very least will be on the Milwaukee-Nashville shuttle in 2024. That said, Jacob Misiorowski, Robert Gasser and Carlos F. Rodriguez look to be mainstays of the Brewers rotation in the future, and their arrivals in late 2024 cannot be ruled out. Whether their arrivals are like Freddy Peralta’s immediate entry into the rotation at the major-league level, or going the bullpen route that Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes took in 2018 is to be determined, but it is quite likely they could be helping the Crew down the stretch.

Aside from top prospects, contributions from James Meeker and Evan McKendry cannot be ruled out in 2024, either. The former followed up a dominating 2022-2023 winter season in Brisbane by becoming a solid emergency starter for Double-A Biloxi, while the latter was solid as a Triple-A starter between Durham (Rays) and Nashville (Brewers). Adam Seminaris and Coleman Crow will be on the comeback trail from injuries, and Chad Patrick and Easton McGee could also be factors.

Overall
Yes, the Brewers have been quiet in the free-agent market. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Free agents can get expensive, and the Brewers' financial situation has been complicated by the bankruptcy of Bally Sports parent company Diamond Sports Group. Thus, it might not make sense to sign a free agent that would need to be dealt or who would cost the Brewers a lot of money.

In addition, there is the issue of clubhouse chemistry. Bringing in a free agent, then having to deal him or sit him, could cause some real issues on that front, and a team whose decision-makers admitted to underestimating the effects of the Josh Hader trade may be unwilling to take that sort of risk.

On the other hand, it is easier to deal or waive a Jahmai Jones, Capra, Blake Perkins, Chris Roller, Junk, J.B. Bukauskas or Thyago Vieira to clear space for a prospect or two, and with much less risk of disrupting the clubhouse.

The Brewers farm system has taken huge leaps forward and has already had a track record of providing real contributors to the major-league club’s success. The team has little to lose by rolling with their farm talent in 2024.

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[Michael Trzinski]

Good piece, Harold!

[brewerralph]

Good article, I would add Ethan Murray to the list of players that could help down the road. Again great article!

[jay87shot]

What would reasonable expectations for Churio, Weimer, Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, Gasser, Uribe, and other be?

Obviously we know those guys ceilings but would hoping each of those guys hits .240-.260 (.280 for Frelick) be reasonable. I am sure with the defense and baserunning of all of those guys that would be like 3 WAR seasons. Maybe one of the group plays at a little higher level. If Gasser can be around a 4 ERA pitcher i would be happy, Uribe basically needs to keep his BB% around 10% and his stuff will be enough to have a good year.

[sveumrules]

26 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

What would reasonable expectations for Churio, Weimer, Frelick, Mitchell, Turang, Gasser, Uribe, and other be?

This link has the median ZiPS projections for all Brewers players in 2024.

The individual player pages also have Steamer projections.

ZiPS also provides the 80th percentile projections which look like...

Chourio 291/332/458 (114 OPS+) 3.1 WAR
Weimer 246/321/446 (107 OPS+) 1.9 WAR
Frelick 298/357/426 (115 OPS+) 3.0 WAR
Mitchell 282/352/434 (116 OPS+) 1.7 WAR
Turang 364/334/387 (98 OPS+) 2.5 WAR
Black 264/366/451 (123 OPS+) 2.9 WAR

Gasser 3.74 ERA (2.4 WAR)
Coleman Crow 3.70 ERA (2.0 WAR)
Even McKendry 3.87 ERA (2.1 WAR)
Tobias Myers 4.02 ERA (2.0 WAR)
Uribe 3.06 ERA (1.1 WAR)

 

[Soupy]

With the Bally Sports problems I am starting to believe that this article is what is going to happen. Maybe sign a 1B fillin but nothing beyond that. If we are in it at the deadline go get someone to help but otherwise get the kids some experience and keep the payroll low.