2023-24 NFL Playoffs thread

[adambr2]

18 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

The first field goal he didn't kick was from the 28. Their guy is not strong legged, but I still kick that one to regain a 3 possession lead, on the road in the second half. I don't think it's an absolutely crazy decision but I definitely would have kicked it.  

I would have made the same call he did on the second one. I don't think a FG does much of anything for you in that situation. So you tie the game and give the ball back to SF, who you haven't stopped once all half. If you do convert and go up 4, there's maybe a chance you keep them out of the end zone and they settle for 3 or you get the ball back by way of a fumble or whatever and you're ahead. It forces them to remain aggressive though because they're losing. Higher chance of mistake, and less comfort in running those 7 minutes off when there's no guarantee of getting a touchdown. It keeps the pressure on them. So I totally get that call. 

 

 

Suppose it's us up 14 in the 3rd, 4th and 2 at the 28. 

How confident are you that Anders is even connecting from 45-46 to give you the 3?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

14 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Suppose it's us up 14 in the 3rd, 4th and 2 at the 28. 

How confident are you that Anders is even connecting from 45-46 to give you the 3?

50/50, but I think that's still part of the reason I kick it. I don't think the 21 points is that much greater than 17. If he misses, it shouldn't be the end of the world either...but the odds he makes it are at least OK and I think the 3-possession lead is important enough to kick. Now if we were up by 3, I'm going for it.

Like I said though...I don't think it's this end of the world, brain-dead decision people are pretending it is. They should have won the game regardless. Just still hard to look past what a tide-turning point in the game it was.

[tmwiese55]

Yea after seeing the kicker isn't good I went from no-brainer to I get it and don't think he was crazy wrong, but still would've taken the kick due to the value of 3 score lead with only 4ish possessions left for the other team.   If you had prime Vinatieri or Crosby type guy I think it leads to clear take the points no brainer level. 

[OldHeidelberg]

1 hour ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Like I said though...I don't think it's this end of the world, brain-dead decision people are pretending it is. They should have won the game regardless. Just still hard to look past what a tide-turning point in the game it was.

I don't know that anyone is going that far, it wasn't total dumbassery like say faking a punt at your own 20 on Thanksgiving. To me it's more a debate about how far you go with the new aggressive play calling once you get to the playoffs and Campbell seems to go the furthest. Playoff games have gotten a lot tighter in the past decade or so these decisions earlier in games can end up bigger when there is no next week. We may have been burned by our own 4th down call just a week ago but like people have said here, if your kicker isn't reliable you take a chance. I think Campbell would have still went for it even with Baltimore's kicker though...    

[Fear The Chorizo]

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

Suppose it's us up 14 in the 3rd, 4th and 2 at the 28. 

How confident are you that Anders is even connecting from 45-46 to give you the 3?

If it's going up 3 scores on the next play (FG attempt) that's a coinflip vs converting a 4th and 2 that's a coinflip + continuing the drive for a TD or settling for a shorter FG that still are far from sure things that both result in just going up 3 scores, I'll take the 45 yard FG attempt every single time in that spot of the game - particularly after it was apparent the 49ers made some defensive adjustments that were geared to taking away the Lions' run game and making it more difficult for them to score as easily as they were doing in the 1st half. 

In the second half of a road playoff game, to me it's all about increasing the # of possessions your opponent needs to both score on and avoid giving up scores on to pass you up on the scoreboard.  And going from 2 to 3 scores is a huge deal when also accounting for 2 point conversions after TDs.  I think if the Lions were up 13 in that spot instead of 14, then I would be much more inclined to agree with going for it - however there's still value in adding to your lead at any point to make what is needed during end of game possessions to tie/win a game more realistic.

The broadcasters were routinely referring to Campbell's comments about the game likely being "a race to 30"....he was right in that regard, but I think he failed to realize that giving his kicker a shot to do his job a few times in the second half may have gotten his team to 30 first.