Joey Wiemer & Garrett Mitchell: Should the Brewers Trade One, Both, or Neither?

[David Go]

The Brewers' deal that sent outfielder Tyrone Taylor to the David Stearns-led New York Mets last month may not be the only occasion this offseason where the Brewers subtract from the outfield, a position of strength.

Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Only three outfield spots exist for Christian Yelich, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, Garrett Mitchell, Blake Perkins, and the recently extended Jackson Chourio. With the expectation that Chourio will crack the Opening Day roster, it may be advantageous to deal from their surplus now rather than later. Who might be the odd man in the outfield?

Christian Yelich's resurgent 2023 reestablished himself as an All-Star caliber outfielder, but a hefty salary and full no-trade clause eliminate any possibility of a trade.

Rookie Sal Frelick performed admirably in his first taste of the majors, accruing 1.2 WAR (per Baseball-Reference) while reaching base at a .341 clip in 223 plate appearances. But the Boston native was more highly regarded than any Brewer prospect besides Chourio, making it unlikely the Brewers will move on from him.

Switch-hitter Blake Perkins showcased his elite speed and defense in a part-time role in Milwaukee while posting a respectable .718 OPS after his June 3 recall, but his age, 27, and limited track record result in little trade value.

Teenager Jackson Chourio recently inked the third-largest contract in franchise history. It's safe to say he'll be around for years to come.

Enter Joey Wiemer and Garrett Mitchell.

Joey Wiemer
The well-regarded prospect Wiemer earned the call to the big club after Luis Urias strained his hamstring on Opening Day. His reckless but effective defense and a never-ending stream of energy quickly endeared him to fans. Still, the swing-and-miss issues that plagued the youngster and the frustration of watching his unorthodox swing ended the honeymoon phase almost as soon.

The 24-year-old finished the year with a painful .204/.283/.362 line that is 25 percent below league average by wRC+. His 39.1 hard-hit rate and 89.3 average exit velocity revealed Wiemer can impact the baseball. Still, that ability was hidden by his propensity for strikeouts and his lack of line drives.

Behind the measly slash line was a strong split, the right-handed Wiemer performing admirably against opposite-handed pitching. Wiemer's .815 OPS and seven home runs against southpaws ranked second on the team (minimum 75 PA), while his .568 OPS against right-handers was second worst. His minor league performance indicated a slight preference for facing left-handers, though not nearly as extreme as what 2023 manifested.

The burly outfielder shined with the glove despite his extended offensive struggles. His +8 Outs Above Average and +5 arm Runs Above Average both ranked in the top five of all NL outfielders. Though anything but graceful, his 28.9 feet/second sprint speed ranked in the 89th percentile of all major leaguers.

Wiemer displayed a solid floor of a speed-and-defense outfielder with some power in his first go-around in The Show. Solving the swing-and-miss issues could unlock his All-Star potential... easier said than done.

Garrett Mitchell
Mitchell's 2022 debut held significance in two primary ways - the first of a wave of homegrown talent in the big leagues and a jolt of energy to a struggling team. The former first-rounder did not disappoint in his first taste of Major League pitching, hitting .311 with eight stolen bases in just 28 games. Behind the solid output was a concerningly high 41.8 strikeout rate and unsustainable .548 BABIP (Batting Average, Balls In Play).

Like Wiemer, Mitchell showcased elite defense while outdoing the former with a remarkable 30.2 feet/second sprint speed, ranking in the 99th percentile. That base running prowess showed its downside for Mitchell, who played just three games after sustaining a serious shoulder injury while diving into a base in mid-April. The 25-year-old boasts a .795 OPS (120 OPS+) through 47 games across the past two seasons, but significant questions persist.

The Brewers have allowed the left-handed hitting Mitchell to face lefties just 11 times in his short big league career, informed by the splits he carried during his time in the minors. Additionally, doubts remain about his ability to stay healthy. Mitchell has Type 1 diabetes, so the Brewers have monitored his usage. Mitchell played just 64 games in 2021, also missing time due to injury in 2022.

Better Trade Candidate?
To my surprise, a recent poll I ran on Twitter showed that Brewers fans overwhelmingly supported trading Wiemer rather than Mitchell. This shows likeability (though I consider Wiemer very likable) but also reveals that Mitchell has yet to struggle against big-league pitching. Both carry solid floors as fourth outfielders with speed, defense, and a high ceiling if the contact numbers improve. But because Wiemer spent more time in Milwaukee, pitchers exposed his flaws, something Mitchell has not experienced.

Rather than focusing on which skill set will be more valuable at the Big League level, the Brewers should consider the roster fit for each. Mitchell profiles more as a true center fielder, while Wiemer has shown elite right-field defense (and average to plus defense in center). With Chourio in town for the next 8-10 years, the Brewers may benefit more from having an elite corner outfielder.

The Brewers' lineup, both today and tomorrow, is littered with left-handed options, including Christian Yelich, Sal Frelick, Brice Turang, and Tyler Black, who all bat from the left side. The Brewers learned how detrimental it can be to lack lineup balance during the first half 2023. The lineup may benefit more from having a right-handed option to balance the lineup.

Though predicting a trade return precisely is impossible, Mitchell may carry more return value than Wiemer. Some fear Wiemer and Mitchell may turn into platoon options - if they do, Mitchell would hold the strong side of a platoon, whereas Wiemer would be relegated to facing left-handed pitching only. Additionally, Mitchell has yet to falter against Major League pitching, as Wiemer has.

Ultimately, the Brewers should decide to deal with their outfield depth this offseason. Carrying more players at a position than at-bats to go around often stunts the development of young players, a mistake that would decrease output and trade value.

The Brewers seem intent on continuing their competitive cycle and are well-positioned to do so. However, their depth remains thin in the rotation and corner infield and those weaknesses must be addressed. If the Brewers want to maximize their chances of competing this year and beyond, trading Joey Wiemer or Garrett Mitchell may be the cost.

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[JohnBriggs12]

If having a right handed component is so important (and it is), you don't deal your best RH hitting outfielder (Taylor) or let another professional RH bat that can play either corner outfield spot walk (Canha), unless you are fairly certain that you can upgrade over both those players.  Yet so far, with spring training a month away, they've replaced neither and they don't seemed interested in pursuing outfield bat/DH types either.  Eloy Jimenez fits that profile nicely.

Wiemer's lack of output in 2023 screams more time in AAA.  Running him out there again to struggle vs. major league pitching when there's nothing to suggest he's solved his issues in insane.

Outfield is not a strength.  It's a weakness offensively.  The only above average major league outfielder on the roster is Yelich.  Sure Chourio has immense potential to be a star, but is he ready now?  Nobody really knows but they might not have any choice but to stick him out there on opening day like they did with Yount way back in 1974.  Yes Yount turned into a Hall of Famer, but the truth is if the Brewer roster back then was the least bit competitive, Yount would have had another year and a half to hone his skills in the upper minors. 

They need desperately to deal for a RH bat they can add to the outfield mix and other teams know that which is why they are keeping the price high.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

34 minutes ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

If having a right handed component is so important (and it is), you don't deal your best RH hitting outfielder (Taylor) or let another professional RH bat that can play either corner outfield spot walk (Canha), unless you are fairly certain that you can upgrade over both those players.  Yet so far, with spring training a month away, they've replaced neither and they don't seemed interested in pursuing outfield bat/DH types either.  Eloy Jimenez fits that profile nicely.

Wiemer's lack of output in 2023 screams more time in AAA.  Running him out there again to struggle vs. major league pitching when there's nothing to suggest he's solved his issues in insane.

Outfield is not a strength.  It's a weakness offensively.  The only above average major league outfielder on the roster is Yelich.  Sure Chourio has immense potential to be a star, but is he ready now?  Nobody really knows but they might not have any choice but to stick him out there on opening day like they did with Yount way back in 1974.  Yes Yount turned into a Hall of Famer, but the truth is if the Brewer roster back then was the least bit competitive, Yount would have had another year and a half to hone his skills in the upper minors. 

They need desperately to deal for a RH bat they can add to the outfield mix and other teams know that which is why they are keeping the price high.

I agree that Wiemer needs more seasoning in Triple A but it begs the question: with all of his wonky swing mechanics, why wasn't this addressed at some point over the past three seasons?

[sveumrules]

6 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I agree that Wiemer needs more seasoning in Triple A but it begs the question: with all of his wonky swing mechanics, why wasn't this addressed at some point over the past three seasons?

The wonky swing mechanics helped him break out in the first place, to the tune of a 155 wRC+ over 472 PA at A/A+ with a 22.2 K%.

A wrist injury ate into his AA production (98 wRC+ over 374 PAs with a 30.2 K%) to start 2022, but he flipped the script with his promotion to AAA at a 135 wRC+ over 174 PAs with only a 19.5 K%.

That wonky swing fueled two years of production and scouting reports that landed Joey a spot in the 2022 Futures Game plus #90 (MLB) and #65 (BPro) Top 100 rankings heading into 2023.

There was no need to address it over the first two seasons, outside of an injury influenced AA hiccup you couldn’t draw up a much better ascent for a raw 4th rounder from the Midwest coming out of the Covid draft for a 150K bonus.

Obviously he was exposed at the MLB level last year after being rushed up faster than anticipated due to injury, then forcing his way into everyday action with even better than advertised defense, but with options remaining and the highest upside of any non-Chourio OF in the system my guess is the Brewers exercise patience with him to figure it out in AAA with guys like Yelich, Frelick, Chourio, Mitchell and Perkins giving them plenty of options to cover MLB OF at bats in the meantime. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

The wonky swing mechanics helped him break out in the first place, to the tune of a 155 wRC+ over 472 PA at A/A+ with a 22.2 K%.

A wrist injury ate into his AA production (98 wRC+ over 374 PAs with a 30.2 K%) to start 2022, but he flipped the script with his promotion to AAA at a 135 wRC+ over 174 PAs with only a 19.5 K%.

That wonky swing fueled two years of production and scouting reports that landed Joey a spot in the 2022 Futures Game plus #90 (MLB) and #65 (BPro) Top 100 rankings heading into 2023.

There was no need to address it over the first two seasons, outside of an injury influenced AA hiccup you couldn’t draw up a much better ascent for a raw 4th rounder from the Midwest coming out of the Covid draft for a 150K bonus.

Obviously he was exposed at the MLB level last year after being rushed up faster than anticipated due to injury, then forcing his way into everyday action with even better than advertised defense, but with options remaining and the highest upside of any non-Chourio OF in the system my guess is the Brewers exercise patience with him to figure it out in AAA with guys like Yelich, Frelick, Chourio, Mitchell and Perkins giving them plenty of options to cover MLB OF at bats in the meantime. 

I read concerns about his swing playing at the MLB level before he made his debut. It didn’t come out of nowhere.

From Spencer: 

From MLB:

https://www.mlb.com/news/what-to-expect-from-joey-wiemer-in-mlb
 

“However, his whippy swing remained kinetic headed into his second full season, and upper-level pitchers took advantage. Wiemer struck out a career-high 30.2 percent of the time and swung and missed at 20.4 percent of his pitches faced (second-highest swinging-strike rate in the Southern League) with Double-A Biloxi last year, and that heightened concerns that the movement and torque of his work in the box would keep him a below-average hitter in the end.”

[sveumrules]

31 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I read concerns about his swing playing at the MLB level before he made his debut. It didn’t come out of nowhere.

From Spencer: 

From MLB:

https://www.mlb.com/news/what-to-expect-from-joey-wiemer-in-mlb
 

“However, his whippy swing remained kinetic headed into his second full season, and upper-level pitchers took advantage. Wiemer struck out a career-high 30.2 percent of the time and swung and missed at 20.4 percent of his pitches faced (second-highest swinging-strike rate in the Southern League) with Double-A Biloxi last year, and that heightened concerns that the movement and torque of his work in the box would keep him a below-average hitter in the end.”

Right, I noted his AA struggles (which were also injury influenced). He also bounced back and posted the lowest K rate of his MiLB career in AAA once he got healthy after those struggles.

He posted a 139 wRC+ during April/May at AA before crashing to a 54 wRC+ in June/July when he was dealing with the injury.

That’s closer to a year and a half ago that any concerns propped up than three years.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, sveumrules said:

Right, I noted his AA struggles (which were also injury influenced). He also bounced back and posted the lowest K rate of his MiLB career in AAA once he got healthy after those struggles.

He posted a 139 wRC+ during April/May at AA before crashing to a 54 wRC+ in June/July when he was dealing with the injury.

That’s closer to a year and a half ago that any concerns propped up than three years.

My point is that the Brewers feel like they’re being reactive instead of proactive with issues of this kind and their hitting prospects. If there is an issue that upper level pitchers will exploit, don’t wait until the hitter reaches upper levels to address it.

Given how this franchise has failed to develop above-average hitters for the past decade, it feels like there’s plenty to criticize with their approach; letting Wiemer reach the majors without overhauling his swing is evidence they’re still not doing what needs to be done with their hitting development processes.

[jay87shot]

We should move Yelich to 1B or trade him and have a 4 man OF of Frelick, Chourio, Weimer, and Mitchell. However since we aren't going to move Yeli, we should really trade one for a mlb ready 3B/SP. 

[LouisEly]

Once Chourio makes the ML roster (and I don't think that opening day is a given despite the contract) I think Yelich will be the primary DH.  A defensive outfield of Chourio, Frelick, and Mitchell will be like having four OFs. 

There will be plenty of ABs available for Yelich, Frelick, Mitchell, and Chourio with Wiemer at AAA.  Perkins is nothing more than a backup.

[Trax]

I would not LOOK to move any of these young cheap controllable guys, but of course their names can come up in trade talks.  If we truly are going to start the season with both Burnes and Adames it's likely we'll start it with them on board too.

[Harold Hutchison]

On 1/14/2024 at 10:21 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

I agree that Wiemer needs more seasoning in Triple A but it begs the question: with all of his wonky swing mechanics, why wasn't this addressed at some point over the past three seasons?

They probably hoped to do so last year at Nashville, then Luis Urias injured his hamstring on opening day, and that plan went by the wayside.

I think no professional team's plans for a season survive the first game, and it may go back to them failing to survive the first day of training camp/spring training.

[jay87shot]

I am fine with a trade but it would really need to be for a similarly valued young pitchers or IF. At this point I doubt anything happens unless there are a bunch of injuries and a spring training deal is necessary. If everyone plays well in spring I would just rotate through all 4. In reality, I would love to trade Yelich and get something interesting back and save some $ to put into another bat.

 

[Harold Hutchison]

I'm inclined to rotate the four as well, have the position player group look like this:

lf: Frelick

rf: Chourio

dh: Yelich

c: Contreras

3b: Black

1b; Hoskins

cf: Mitchell/Wiemer

ss: Adames

2b: Turang/Monasterio

bench Haase (eventually Quero), Turang/Monasterio, Miller, Mitchell/Wiemer