2024 Brewers Rotation

[SF70]

1 hour ago, KeithStone53151 said:

You have 6 question marks and Peralta...you missed Ashby. You're also literally 7 deep heading into spring training, with 2 being relievers last year, two coming off serious injury, one having a breakout after being unsuccessful for a long time, Miley who is very injury prone, and then Peralta who has also been injury prone. The odds of getting to opening day with 5 healthy starters aren't as high as they should be...I feel like in most cases we have at least 4-5 reserve options or not a rotation full of concerns. Beyond health, the odds of having 5 starters capable of going 5 innings a start with an ERA under 5 on opening day seems close to zero at this point

This team currently is deep with capable starters for OD—

Peralta-Miley-Rae-Hall-Ross-Junis goes 6 deep for a few weeks to get past the extra ST year. Off days early season help as well with the team likely to keep the 5 rest day strategy.

There is also Ashby & McKendry if the team has 2-3 starter injuries.

Most evaluators I follow project Gasser a #4 starter with some saying he can be more than that. That is a player, even at age 25, that you want to have for 7 seasons, not 6.

[TURBO]

Looks like I've stumbled into another urinating contest...

If Gasser ends up being a #2 or #3 for the remainder of his contract, then his service time is definitely something to consider.

If he ends up being a back of the rotation starter for that same time period, then his service time probably means nothing, like stated above.  If that is the case, I doubt he is still around or that we even care at that point.

Simple fact is, we have no idea where he shakes out.  If it only takes 2 weeks to save him a full year of service time, then it seems the obvious choice to keep him in AAA for the first two weeks.  (Is that accurate?  Does he really only need to start the season in AAA for 2 weeks for us to get a full year longer?  Seems unlikely) 

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I think the most likely reason Gasser does not make the OD roster is because he is not on the 40 man roster (and would have options if he was). Rea, Junis, Ross are likely to fill out the rotation / long relief, otherwise they would have to be released. Brewers love pitching depth and will want to keep all these guys as long as possible. Injuries can change this, giving Gasser a better shot at the roster. Service time manipulation may play a role in the decision, but likely a minor one.

[SF70]

10 minutes ago, ClosetBrewerFan said:

I think the most likely reason Gasser does not make the OD roster is because he is not on the 40 man roster (and would have options if he was). Rea, Junis, Ross are likely to fill out the rotation / long relief, otherwise they would have to be released. Brewers love pitching depth and will want to keep all these guys as long as possible. Injuries can change this, giving Gasser a better shot at the roster. Service time manipulation may play a role in the decision, but likely a minor one.

I think Gasser will definitely make the roster early season and if he doesn’t rotation, then pitches 2-4 innings stints out of the bullpen.

 

[monty57]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

Looks like I've stumbled into another urinating contest...

If Gasser ends up being a #2 or #3 for the remainder of his contract, then his service time is definitely something to consider.

If he ends up being a back of the rotation starter for that same time period, then his service time probably means nothing, like stated above.  If that is the case, I doubt he is still around or that we even care at that point.

Simple fact is, we have no idea where he shakes out.  If it only takes 2 weeks to save him a full year of service time, then it seems the obvious choice to keep him in AAA for the first two weeks.  (Is that accurate?  Does he really only need to start the season in AAA for 2 weeks for us to get a full year longer?  Seems unlikely) 

One MLB season is 162 games played over 186 calendar days. A player gets credited for one year's service time after accumulating 172 days on the 26 man roster.

Therefore, if a rookie like Gasser is kept down for 15 days, he will only get 171 days and not accrue a full year's service time.

Turang, for instance, has 0.165 years (or 165 days) of service time, so the Brewers will get him for six more full seasons. Frelick is only at 0.072, so if he were only up for 99 days this year, he still wouldn't have a full year's service time.

[Playing Catch]

I don't buy any service time manipulation for Gasser, either. What I DO buy, however, is that there's no reason to put him on the 40-man until he's Rule 5 eligible in December, unless the brass are convinced he's decidedly better than what they already have.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

I don't buy any service time manipulation for Gasser, either. What I DO buy, however, is that there's no reason to put him on the 40-man until he's Rule 5 eligible in December, unless the brass are convinced he's decidedly better than what they already have.

The chances of that barring injury are close to nil. 

He’s going to pitch for this team and cover some innings for a team that needs those innings. 

[Playing Catch]

7 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

The chances of that barring injury are close to nil. 

He’s going to pitch for this team and cover some innings for a team that needs those innings. 

I think that's correct. I just meant to say that there was no reason to roster him until necessary. His arm could fall off during Spring Training. No reason to use a 40-man spot + an option until the club is committed.

[monty57]

9 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I think that's correct. I just meant to say that there was no reason to roster him until necessary. His arm could fall off during Spring Training. No reason to use a 40-man spot + an option until the club is committed.

The Brewers have a lot of depth, but maybe (as was brought up in the site's article on the potential need to trade a bullpen arm or two) too much depth, meaning we won't have enough spots on the 26 man roster for all of the guys we have.

It looks like there will have to be some moves made this spring where some guys who are currently on the 40 man will not be around by the end of spring training. This could be something like an Adames trade, or it could simply be someone who's out of options and isn't going to make the squad.

To the topic of this thread, we have a lot of depth at starting pitching. There may be some questions on the quality of that depth, how people will recover from injuries, innings limits, etc., but we have a lot of bodies filling up roster spots. I don't think the Brewers are done making moves, and if they think Gasser is one of the best options for the '24 staff (which would seem to be the case), they will find a 40-man spot for him.

If the Clayton Andrews trade is any kind of a bellwether, I'd be happy to trade more "last guys on the 40 man" for more 19-year old's with promising upside. 

[KeithStone53151]

On 2/13/2024 at 4:52 PM, SF70 said:

This team currently is deep with capable starters for OD—

Peralta-Miley-Rae-Hall-Ross-Junis goes 6 deep for a few weeks to get past the extra ST year. Off days early season help as well with the team likely to keep the 5 rest day strategy.

There is also Ashby & McKendry if the team has 2-3 starter injuries.

Most evaluators I follow project Gasser a #4 starter with some saying he can be more than that. That is a player, even at age 25, that you want to have for 7 seasons, not 6.

I just generally feel like a lot of you are far too optimistic. We are counting on a lot of guys that last year were either hurt or pitching in relief...and a lot of guys that were not good starters prior to this year. I don't think the Brewers are prepared for the fairly likely outcome of 1-2 guys getting hurt and 1-2 healthy guys being terrible as starters. Now imagine if Peralta has an injury and misses April. All of a sudden, Wade Miley is our opening day starter.

[KeithStone53151]

On 2/13/2024 at 3:46 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

The key is it's only for two weeks.....

The projections see all these guys having ERAs well under 5. https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP

Lol, what about what Junis/Ross have done at previous stops is an indicator that they'll pitch to a mid 4s ERA? There's just no way that's where either pitcher ends up as a starter, that reminds me when fangraphs was pegging Hader for a 3.5 ERA when he was a multi-inning demon posting 2.6 or better ERA's every year(ignore COVID year). You're honestly better off completely ignoring the projections, just scroll through them. Do you think 90% of the league is going to pitch to a 3.9-4.8 ERA?

[brewerfan82]

5 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Lol, what about what Junis/Ross have done at previous stops is an indicator that they'll pitch to a mid 4s ERA?

Because they have both pitched to mid 4s ERA or better as starters in their career?

And as starters in the past 3 seasons?

[KeithStone53151]

1 minute ago, brewerfan82 said:

Because they have both pitched to mid 4s ERA or better as starters in their career?

And as starters in the past 3 seasons?

Those links didn't work for me to click on.

Junis pitched to a 5.26, 6.39, and 5.24 ERA as a starter from 2019 through 2021. I'm willing to ignore the 2020 season, that still showing well over 5 ERA. He pitched better, mostly as a reliever, for the Giants the last 2 years...in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball. If I were able to bet on Junis posting over 4.75 ERA as a starter(minimum 5 starts), I would do it in a heartbeat.

Ross pitched to a 5.01, 5.06, and 5.48 as a starters from 2017 to 2019. He didn't pitch 2020 and had a better year(4.17 ERA) in 2021 before missing a ton of time. He has a better chance of coming near his projection than Junis as a starter, but there's so much unknown in him as he hasn't pitched since 2021. In an extremely limited sample, he did pretty poorly in 14 AAA innings. I know it's small...but it's all he pitched.

Thinking a mid 4's era is a likely outcome for either guy...wishful thinking unless the Brewers are able to unlock something. I know they've been good in the past but I'm not optimistic in either case.

[brewerfan82]

17 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Junis pitched to a 5.26, 6.39, and 5.24 ERA as a starter from 2019 through 2021.

Ross pitched to a 5.01, 5.06, and 5.48 as a starters from 2017 to 2019.

Where are you getting your splits?

Junis (stats): 4.61 ERA as a starter in 2021, 4.82 in 2022, 0.00 in 2023

Ross (stats): 3.02 ERA as a starter in 2019, 4.02 in 2021

Now if you want to argue small samples sizes or that they don't pitch enough innings in their starts or something, that's one thing, but I think you're off on the stats you're looking at/providing.

[Underachiever]

Maybe I am slow, but how can the two number sets above (by KeithStone and brewerfan82) both be correct? 

[brewerfan82]

2 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

Maybe I am slow, but how can the two number sets above (by KeithStone and brewerfan82) both be correct? 

I have the same question 😆

[Underachiever]

Your post wasn't there when I started mine. Seems we were both typing at the same time.

[KeithStone53151]

12 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

Where are you getting your splits?

Junis (stats): 4.61 ERA as a starter in 2021, 4.82 in 2022, 0.00 in 2023

Ross (stats): 3.02 ERA as a starter in 2019, 4.02 in 2021

Now if you want to argue small samples sizes or that they don't pitch enough innings in their starts or something, that's one thing, but I think you're off on the stats you're looking at/providing.

I took stats for the entire season. You reeeeeally are cherry picking your numbers here. Ross had a 3.02 ERA in 9 starts in August/Sept, yet a 5.48 ERA on the season in 2019? Also worth noting Ross averaged less than 5 innings a start in your cherry picked 9 starts. Also I certainly didn't miss you ignoring the prior seasons I referenced on Junis. Do you simply ignore data that doesn't fit your narrative? That's starting to become a common theme on these boards lately.

So, if we ignore the fact that Joe Ross was bad in 2017, bad in 2018, bad the first half of 2019, and injured for 2 full seasons(while pitching bad in a very small sample in rehab)...yeah he's gonna hit his mid 4s projections that are handed out like candy. If we ignore that Junis was decent early in his career and incrementally got worse as a starter. And, in your cherry picked 4.61 ERA in 6 starts(5.26 on the season overall), averaged less than 5 innings a start. Also in 2022 he also averaged less than 5 innings a start. Junis has 1 pitch that isn't batting practice, and that's his slider. He's not going to be able to throw his slider 63% of the time as a starter and either go deep in games...or stay healthy. So if we ignore all those concerns, yeah Junis is a mid 4s starter.

[brewerfan82]

1 minute ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I took stats for the entire season. You reeeeeally are cherry picking your numbers here. 3.02 ERA in 9 starts in August/Sept, yet a 5.48 ERA on the season? Also I certainly didn't miss you ignoring the prior seasons I referenced on Junis. Do you simply ignore data that doesn't fit your narrative? That's starting to become a common theme on these boards lately.

I provided career and last 3 year stats in my original post. Then my last one was in response to your "starter" stats that appeared incorrect, so I included the "as starters" stats for the years you had incorrect numbers for and the more recent years that you didn't provide stats for, for whatever reason.

Your original claim was that there wasn't evidence that they could pitch to mid 4 ERAs as starters and I pointed out that's pretty much exactly what they've done in that role both in their whole careers and more recently.

[KeithStone53151]

17 minutes ago, Underachiever said:

Maybe I am slow, but how can the two number sets above (by KeithStone and brewerfan82) both be correct? 

Because brewerfan82 is cherry picking numbers that fit his narrative and ignoring all evidence to the contrary.

[umphrey]

There are a couple guys on the roster that I'm looking at thinking maybe 2023 Julio Teheran season is a good guess. I'm hoping the MiLB and maybe a trade can make the SP group good. Ashby Gasser Mis Carlos Rodriguez. And if the playoffs are in our future run it like that 2019 (?) team and go bullpen games in the playoffs. 

[KeithStone53151]

10 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

I provided career and last 3 year stats in my original post. Then my last one was in response to your "starter" stats that appeared incorrect, so I included the "as starters" stats for the years you had incorrect numbers for and the more recent years that you didn't provide stats for, for whatever reason.

Your original claim was that there wasn't evidence that they could pitch to mid 4 ERAs as starters and I pointed out that's pretty much exactly what they've done in that role both in their whole careers and more recently.

You can't be serious. The years I referenced they were primarily starters those years. I stand corrected that they happened to pitch some in relief as well, and in Ross's case he happened to throw 9 good "starts" at under 5 innings on average in 2019. I did add previously that Ross has a better shot at hitting projections simply because of a wider range of outcomes due to injury. It's tough to know how a guy is going to come back after missing 2 full years. Considering he was not great before that, and the contract he was given, betting on him being a solid starter is not a smart bet. For Junis, you had to dig pretty deep to find a borderline effective stretch as a starter the last 5 years to cherrypick...while averaging about 4.5 innings per "start"...while pitching in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball. The idea of him pitching to the projected 4.34 ERA is laughable. 

[brewerfan82]

I get that you don't like these guys and that you don't think they'll hit their projections. You also have valid points to why you feel that way, however, I'm not sure where the pushback is coming from though.

Last three years (overall stats):

Last three years (as starters):

I don't think this is "reeeeeally" cherry picking. I think that there is pretty clear and recent evidence that they are capable of pitching in the mid 4s if not better (as indicated by FIP and xFIP numbers).

Yes, there are reasons and older history with both showing they could very well do worse than that as well, but to call their projections laughable and to say that there are no indicators that support them seems like a stretch to me.

[KeithStone53151]

23 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

I get that you don't like these guys and that you don't think they'll hit their projections. You also have valid points to why you feel that way, however, I'm not sure where the pushback is coming from though.

Last three years (overall stats):

Last three years (as starters):

I don't think this is "reeeeeally" cherry picking. I think that there is pretty clear and recent evidence that they are capable of pitching in the mid 4s if not better (as indicated by FIP and xFIP numbers).

Yes, there are reasons and older history with both showing they could very well do worse than that as well, but to call their projections laughable and to say that there are no indicators that support them seems like a stretch to me.

You're ignoring a lot of contributing factors to come to the conclusion. There are some past indicators that either guy could be good, but there's far more indicating disaster. This is also at least the 3rd time I've had an argument with someone on here about the horrendous state of the rotation, I just can't seem to wrap my head around why nobody else seems to see the problem. Oh yeah, the guy we signed for $1.5M who was hurt for 2 years is going to be a serviceable starter. The guy who throws 63% sliders in relief is going to all of a sudden jump to the rotation after previously failing there. Rea, yup he's gonna be just as good as last year...no teams are going to find a way to adjust to him. Miley will stay healthy, obviously. The rotation needs a lot to go right just to be well below league average. If a lot goes wrong, I don't know how we're going to fill the innings. I'm generally very optimistic on this board, but it's hard to be optimistic about the rotation. The amount of homer-ism in this thread is off the charts. Man if I saw the Cubs were rolling Joe Ross and Jakob Junis in their rotation, I would be thrilled.

[brewerfan82]

2 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

You're ignoring a lot of contributing factors to come to the conclusion. There are some past indicators that either guy could be good, but there's far more indicating disaster. This is also at least the 3rd time I've had an argument with someone on here about the horrendous state of the rotation, I just can't seem to wrap my head around why nobody else seems to see the problem. Oh yeah, the guy we signed for $1.5M who was hurt for 2 years is going to be a serviceable starter. The guy who throws 63% sliders in relief is going to all of a sudden jump to the rotation after previously failing there. Rea, yup he's gonna be just as good as last year...no teams are going to find a way to adjust to him. Miley will stay healthy, obviously. The rotation needs a lot to go right just to be well below league average. If a lot goes wrong, I don't know how we're going to fill the innings.

 

26 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

Yes, there are reasons and older history with both showing they could very well do worse than that as well, but to call their projections laughable and to say that there are no indicators that support them seems like a stretch to me.

I think you're under the impression that my "conclusion" is something other than "the projections for these guys have reasons why they're the projections".