How The Brewers Can "Win" The Corbin Burnes Trade

[Jake McKibbin]

DL Hall and Joey Ortiz may differ from the big-name prospects we wanted, but they have a huge upside. Here’s how the Brewers can unlock the high-ceiling talent in both DL Hall and Joey Ortiz.

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports (Burnes), Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports (Hall), Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports (Ortiz)

DL Hall is a high-octane prospect, the 21st pick overall in the 2017 draft with electric staff, which injuries and control issues have curtailed. Joey Ortiz is as smooth as they come at shortstop, a lock to provide plus defense with solid bat-to-ball skills and a route to accessing in-game power from his high exit velocities. If they can get the most out of Ortiz and Hall, this trade will seem like a steal in a few years, but how can the Brewers get to that point?

DL Hall as a Starter
Hall is a flame-throwing left-hander with an upper-90s fastball with a massive induced vertical break (IVB), meaning he can force a lot of swings and miss up in the zone. His mid-80s changeup has developed into a plus pitch that’s been very successful against right-handed hitters, while his slider took a big step forward in 2023 to add more vertical drop and caused carnage in August and September. Baseball America ranked his fastball as 80-grade, with a 60-grade curveball and 70-grade slider. His issue is command, but even that took steps forward in 2023 when he threw more strikes than any other season in his career.

To win this trade, the Brewers will need DL Hall to be a starting pitcher and stay healthy, two questions the Baltimore Orioles weren’t confident they could answer. Command is his biggest problem, with 32 walks in 52 innings in the minor leagues during 2023, but if the Brewers can find some road to even average command, Hall’s raw stuff is amongst the best pitching prospects in baseball and presents a clear pathway to a top of the rotation arm for years to come. The reason he’s available is because of the uncertainty, but the Brewers' success in their pitching lab, turning high-end raw stuff into high-end pitchers, should be noted. Here are his absurd swing-and-miss rates at Triple-A behind the slider and fastball last season, even inside the strike zone.

Hall debuted in the majors last year down the stretch as a reliever and was effective both in the regular season and the Orioles playoff run. That being said, the Brewers have many arms in their bullpen as things stand, and high-end ones, too, with Abner Uribe, Joel Payamps, and Devin Williams, meaning Hall is almost certain to be tried as a starter this year. He has the floor of a top reliever to fall back on, but make no mistake; DL Hall will be in the Brewers' rotation come Opening Day.

Joey Ortiz Accesses his Power
Ortiz hit .321/.378/.507 in an offensive-friendly Triple-A environment last year, but he shows signs of being an elite bat-to-ball player. Striking out just 17.7% of the time, he managed to make effective contact in most areas of the strike zone, as seen below:

He has areas, specifically inside pitches, where he mashes, but he doesn’t have any natural weak spots inside the strike zone, allowing him to project well after he can adjust to big-league pitching. He is MLB-ready next season, and his defensive floor means he will get regular playing opportunities. He also registers strong exit velocities and line drive rates within the zone so that he can slug, but his chase rates are astronomical. Like Jackson Chourio in 2023, Ortiz's contact skills meant he swung at pitches outside the zone too often, producing sub-optimal contact. For the following chart, chase rates of 35%+ are considered poor:

Ortiz accesses his power better from the inner half of the plate, so swinging more on the inside is justifiable in some ways. However, you must find a way to afford to do so at the rates he does in the major leagues. It should be a simple tweak in his approach, along with Chourio, that will result in more consistent power and better walk rates in the majors.

Ortiz can also enhance his value by getting regular time at shortstop, which may be in short supply given Willy Adames's elite performance in recent years. In his final season before hitting free agency, moving to put Adames at second or third base and impacting his value in free agency would likely cause an issue with Adames and the clubhouse atmosphere that the Brewers organization puts a premium on. Post 2025, there is a strong chance Ortiz can make it to his spot; however, in 2024, it most likely involves him shuffling between second and third base. It gives the Brewers the option to address needs in season, allowing Tyler Black, Brice Turang, and Joey Ortiz to fight it out for playing time (likely pushing Andruw Monasterio to the side), all of whom will get a chance to stamp their mark on the positions.

With many options in the upper minors, such as Oliver Dunn and Brock Wilken, the organization has enough options to deliberate over who to stick or twist with, and that's a fantastic place to be. I would say a lot of this conundrum depends on Brice Turang: if his bat rebounds to average production level, then Ortiz may see more time at third base; if it doesn't, Turang may be relegated to a utility glove on the bench this season, or even Triple A to develop further in preparation for 2025. Black's defense at third improved markedly last season, albeit he is likely to average at best in the majors. However, the Brewers will be loathe to move him over to first base quite so soon. He will see some playing time there in tandem with Rhys Hoskins, but the Brewers' infield is stacked with talent and questions right now, including if Adames' trade talks are being held.

It’s clear that both players have the potential to be difference-makers at the major league level, and a lot of people are sleeping on Joey Ortiz, in particular, while writing off DL Hall as a reliever. The Brewers' extraordinary pitching development team and the minor adjustments needed by Ortiz going into 2024 lead me to believe the Brewers have, despite losing Corbin Burnes, potentially upgraded their team as a whole off the back of this trade (bold statement time), never mind for the years to come. They also saved $15 million that they can use to improve their rotation for the season, meaning there could be more to come this offseason.

Does this change your thoughts about the trade? What do you think the Brewers have got in Hall and Ortiz? Let us know in the comments below.

Also, watch for more detailed rundowns surrounding each player from our prospect experts Jamie Cameron and Spencer Michaelis; they're not to be missed.

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[Michael Trzinski]

I like the potential of both Hall and Ortiz. All the pundits that I have read said Baltimore got the better of the deal.

I think Hall can become our next Josh Hader at some point, maybe even this year. Package Williams and Adames for a quality starter and let Ortiz slide into SS.

That is my best path for success from these two.

[Jake McKibbin]

I think he's got a real shot to start as well, his walk rate was actually okay in the majors as well which is exciting with that raw stuff. But we'll have to see how the discussions with Arnold go down

[Hambone]

Letting Adames go for a upper end 3rd base glove with a power bat is okay with me. I love Adames but it is what it is. Hang onto Williams though. He's still lights out. I appreciate your analysis of the Burnes trade. More people should read it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 hours ago, Hambone said:

Letting Adames go for a upper end 3rd base glove with a power bat is okay with me. I love Adames but it is what it is. Hang onto Williams though. He's still lights out. I appreciate your analysis of the Burnes trade. More people should read it.

Welcome to Brewer Fanatic!

[Jake McKibbin]

6 hours ago, Hambone said:

Letting Adames go for a upper end 3rd base glove with a power bat is okay with me. I love Adames but it is what it is. Hang onto Williams though. He's still lights out. I appreciate your analysis of the Burnes trade. More people should read it.

I'm glad you enjoyed it, thanks for the kudos! And welcome to the forum, always nice to have a fresh face

[Harold Hutchison]

17 hours ago, Michael Trzinski said:

I like the potential of both Hall and Ortiz. All the pundits that I have read said Baltimore got the better of the deal.

I think Hall can become our next Josh Hader at some point, maybe even this year. Package Williams and Adames for a quality starter and let Ortiz slide into SS.

That is my best path for success from these two.

Hader 2.0 is a low-end outcome for Hall, but not a bad one.

Ortiz looks to have a floor of 2017 Orlando Arcia - a near-average bat and excellent defense. That is not horrible to have for three years at league minimum.

And if that is what the Crew has, then those still become valuable assets that can be flipped. Look at what Hader turned into: Gasser/Contreras (via flipping Esteury Ruiz).

Always in motion, the future is.

[CheezWizHed]

Much has been said about the minimal return we got for Burnes or simple dislike for the prospects.  

I think not enough has been said about Burnes' regression the last few years.  His K and BB per 9IP rate has gone the wrong direction for 3 years.  Along with it, his ERA and FIP have continued to climb.  I've seen some projections of him having a 3.8 ERA this year (a perhaps too simplistic curve fit on his last 3 years data).   

But I think just watching him pitch brings similar concerns.  He will look dominant so many times through 4 innings and have the wheels fall off in the 5th or 6th innings. With his reduced control increasing his walks, it also seems to effect his placement inside the zone.  Typically later in his outing, he throws a meatball down the middle that gets hit pretty hard.  Overall, pitching well... but always giving you the feeling that he is dancing on the wall of being mediocre again.  Some outings are dominate; some are forgettable.  I'm sure all the other GMs see that also and that effects his trade value. 

Now, I'm sure Burnes will pitch like a #1 pitcher for Baltimore, but I do wonder for how long that will continue. Is it completely out of possibility for Hall to have a better ERA than Burnes come 2025? 

Most people complain that we just dumped on the 2024 season by trading Burnes. I look at our team this year and it felt like we were at best treading water.  Our rotation wasn't even close to last year's.  Miley and Burnes are on the wrong side of the age curve.  Big Woo is gone. And our replacements are pretty suspect.  The BP remains pretty strong as they were last year (assuming a litany of short starts doesn't wear them out). Our offense should be better as the rookies age and Hoskins, but I don't see it as enough to overcome the pitching decline. 

Thus, I've been an advocate of building on the future of Chourio, Black, Quero, Contreras, Frelick, Wiemer, and Misiorowski.  I think Hall and Misiorowski paired together gives us the potential of a very high upside duo.  A bunch of risk, but a very high upside. 

So I grade the trade as an "A" for Baltimore and "B" for Brewers... in 2024.  What grade we give it in 2025 will just have to wait and see. But clearly the "win" for the Brewers is in the long game and not 2024. 

[Jake McKibbin]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

Much has been said about the minimal return we got for Burnes or simple dislike for the prospects.  

I think not enough has been said about Burnes' regression the last few years.  His K and BB per 9IP rate has gone the wrong direction for 3 years.  Along with it, his ERA and FIP have continued to climb.  I've seen some projections of him having a 3.8 ERA this year (a perhaps too simplistic curve fit on his last 3 years data).   

But I think just watching him pitch brings similar concerns.  He will look dominant so many times through 4 innings and have the wheels fall off in the 5th or 6th innings. With his reduced control increasing his walks, it also seems to effect his placement inside the zone.  Typically later in his outing, he throws a meatball down the middle that gets hit pretty hard.  Overall, pitching well... but always giving you the feeling that he is dancing on the wall of being mediocre again.  Some outings are dominate; some are forgettable.  I'm sure all the other GMs see that also and that effects his trade value. 

Now, I'm sure Burnes will pitch like a #1 pitcher for Baltimore, but I do wonder for how long that will continue. Is it completely out of possibility for Hall to have a better ERA than Burnes come 2025? 

Most people complain that we just dumped on the 2024 season by trading Burnes. I look at our team this year and it felt like we were at best treading water.  Our rotation wasn't even close to last year's.  Miley and Burnes are on the wrong side of the age curve.  Big Woo is gone. And our replacements are pretty suspect.  The BP remains pretty strong as they were last year (assuming a litany of short starts doesn't wear them out). Our offense should be better as the rookies age and Hoskins, but I don't see it as enough to overcome the pitching decline. 

Thus, I've been an advocate of building on the future of Chourio, Black, Quero, Contreras, Frelick, Wiemer, and Misiorowski.  I think Hall and Misiorowski paired together gives us the potential of a very high upside duo.  A bunch of risk, but a very high upside. 

So I grade the trade as an "A" for Baltimore and "B" for Brewers... in 2024.  What grade we give it in 2025 will just have to wait and see. But clearly the "win" for the Brewers is in the long game and not 2024. 

I think you've nailed it here, both sides got what they wanted. The brewers have a plethora of solid options in their propsect ranks, so some high ceiling talent is exactly what they wanted, particularly in the rotation and shortstop.

Baltimore needed an ace in a highly contentious division, and now look like perhaps the nastiest starting rotation in baseball with incredible depth while not losing talent (save maybe Hall) that was going to impact them better on their staff than in a trade.

I think Baltimore's struggles today develop Halls command may not extend to the Brewers too, who have shown remarkable ability to develop pitching talent. It remains to be seen but initially I love the brewers approach regarding the talent they went after, and without hindsight, I think a B/B+ grade is just right

[SF70]

6 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I think you've nailed it here, both sides got what they wanted. The brewers have a plethora of solid options in their propsect ranks, so some high ceiling talent is exactly what they wanted, particularly in the rotation and shortstop.

Baltimore needed an ace in a highly contentious division, and now look like perhaps the nastiest starting rotation in baseball with incredible depth while not losing talent (save maybe Hall) that was going to impact them better on their staff than in a trade.

I think Baltimore's struggles today develop Halls command may not extend to the Brewers too, who have shown remarkable ability to develop pitching talent. It remains to be seen but initially I love the brewers approach regarding the talent they went after, and without hindsight, I think a B/B+ grade is just right

Easy A grade Jake, even if Hall ends up part of the nastiest bullpen in baseball.

Ortiz is the prize because of his incredible SS defense/bat combo. Easy 3 WAR floor with 5 WAR upside if he can eventually launch. This is the type of player (plus SS defense) the Brewers value, maybe as much or more than any team in baseball.

Getting the draft-pick a year early helps strengthen the farm earlier and in turn helps the ‘26 team vs the ‘27 team.

[Brewcrew82]

If we hold onto Adames, I think Ortiz’s value to this year’s team is being a much safer (and quite frankly, better) bat than Turang at 2B while providing the same elite defense. 

As for 3B, they absolutely need to give Black the opportunity there, with Ortiz and Wilken being the fallback options. No way is Adames moving to 3B in the absence of a contract extension. 

[Harold Hutchison]

13 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

If we hold onto Adames, I think Ortiz’s value to this year’s team is being a much safer (and quite frankly, better) bat than Turang at 2B while providing the same elite defense. 

As for 3B, they absolutely need to give Black the opportunity there, with Ortiz and Wilken being the fallback options. No way is Adames moving to 3B in the absence of a contract extension. 

I think it depends on if Willy Adames is dealt or not.

If he's dealt, Ortiz is at second, Turang at short, Black at third, Monasterio top bench option.

If Adames stays, the Crew has Black at third, Adames at short, Ortiz/Turang platoon at second, and Monasterio is in AAA to start.

[Jake McKibbin]

4 hours ago, clancyphile said:

I think it depends on if Willy Adames is dealt or not.

If he's dealt, Ortiz is at second, Turang at short, Black at third, Monasterio top bench option.

If Adames stays, the Crew has Black at third, Adames at short, Ortiz/Turang platoon at second, and Monasterio is in AAA to start.

Ortiz is a better likely shortstop than Turang as a result of the strength in his arm, he's a borderline plus plus defender by all accounts

Other than that pretty spot on