Spring Training 2024 (News and Nuggets)

[markedman5]

Not sure if it was mentioned but the Brewers apparently made a 9 figure offer to Adames……it was turned down.

 

[wallus]

Not surprising. At this point (unless someone wants to overpay), you go with Willy for this season. If you are out of it at the deadline and some team wants to offer more then the draft pick, you trade him. If not, you offer the QO in the offseason, take the pick and move on.

[brewmann04]

If the crew is out of at the deadline I agree move him 

[Fear The Chorizo]

4 hours ago, markedman5 said:

Not sure if it was mentioned but the Brewers apparently made a 9 figure offer to Adames……it was turned down.

 

Thank god...my guess is that came after the 2021 season, because there's no way in hades that he'd get that kind of contract right now

[Lathund]

I think he's closer to that than most people would assume. I've even seen comments along the lines of Will Adames not being worth a QO. Slightly below average at the plate (94 wRC+) with elite defense, a 3.4 fWAR season, is Willy in a slump. With better peripherals (Such as the best xwOBA of his career) suggesting that's not going to continue. That's a good player. 

1 year before free agency he's at 107 career wRC+, 17.7 fWAR. Dansby Swanson a year before free agency was the same age, a career 88 wRC+ hitter, 9.9 fWAR. He of course had a great walk year, but even so that took him to 94 wRC+ and 16.4 fWAR. Swanson got 7 years $177m. 

Now you can't compare 1:1, and he still has a year to go, but if Swanson is seen as being worth 177m, then it's really not "no way in hades" territory for Adames getting $100m+. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

6 hours ago, Lathund said:

I think he's closer to that than most people would assume. I've even seen comments along the lines of Will Adames not being worth a QO. Slightly below average at the plate (94 wRC+) with elite defense, a 3.4 fWAR season, is Willy in a slump. With better peripherals (Such as the best xwOBA of his career) suggesting that's not going to continue. That's a good player. 

1 year before free agency he's at 107 career wRC+, 17.7 fWAR. Dansby Swanson a year before free agency was the same age, a career 88 wRC+ hitter, 9.9 fWAR. He of course had a great walk year, but even so that took him to 94 wRC+ and 16.4 fWAR. Swanson got 7 years $177m. 

Now you can't compare 1:1, and he still has a year to go, but if Swanson is seen as being worth 177m, then it's really not "no way in hades" territory for Adames getting $100m+. 

Dansby Swanson got that contract after demonstrating he was consistently an upper 0.700s OPS player capable of hitting 25-30HR a year and playing great SS defense.  Adames has shown the ability to be that player, but not consistently - and he needs to prove his declining production in 2022 and 2023 seasons aren't a trend if he wants to cash in a 9 figure deal next offseason.  

The discussion whether or not Adames is worth a QO is based on what his 2023 season looked like.  If he repeats that in 2024, I wouldn't give him a QO either for fear of him accepting it and being stuck with paying him $20M+.  If he is closer to the player he was 3 seasons ago in 2021, then yeah he's worth more than that QO....but it's a risk assuming that's what he'll be in 2024 based on last year's #'s.

 

 

[Lathund]

34 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Dansby Swanson got that contract after demonstrating he was consistently an upper 0.700s OPS player capable of hitting 25-30HR a year and playing great SS defense.  Adames has shown the ability to be that player, but not consistently - and he needs to prove his declining production in 2022 and 2023 seasons aren't a trend if he wants to cash in a 9 figure deal next offseason.  

The discussion whether or not Adames is worth a QO is based on what his 2023 season looked like.  If he repeats that in 2024, I wouldn't give him a QO either for fear of him accepting it and being stuck with paying him $20M+.  If he is closer to the player he was 3 seasons ago in 2021, then yeah he's worth more than that QO....but it's a risk assuming that's what he'll be in 2024 based on last year's #'s.

So Swanson showed he could consistently hit 25-30 HRs a year by doing it exactly twice before his free agency (25 and 27, previous high being 17) but Willy Adames coming off 25, 31 and 24 HR seasons hasn't? As I mentioned in the last post, Adames has been a significantly better hitter than Swanson to that point in their careers. Now the point isn't to say he should get more than Swanson, but to illustrate just how far off many people are in their assessment of Adames when looking at somwhat comparable players. To say that there is absolutely zero chance of Willy Adames getting a 9 figure deal is just straight up wrong. It is in fact rather likely, although not a guarantee. 

2023 Adames was a 3.4 fWAR/3 rWAR/3.6 WARP player. And he has shown he can be better than that. 1 year $20m for that level of play with the potential of getting more than that is perfectly fine. Only way I see him not getting a QO is a serious injury or a total collapse, and nothing suggests that. 2023 saw his highest walk rate, lowest strikeout rate, highest xwOBA, but also lowest BABIP. Projections has him between 103 wRC+/3.1 fWAR and 112 wRC+/4.2 fWAR, and that's with projections still discounting the last two years excellent defense some. 

Teams value great defensive shortstop, even if their offense isn't much above average. Fans see a low batting average for a season and immediately think a player is cooked and worthless, but team executives don't. And they're the ones giving out the contracts. 

[SF70]

Serious Injury or total collapse is all that will keep Adames from a $150M+ contract. 

No way he accepts the QO this team gives him this offseason.

[Brewcrew82]

Yeah. Adames is definitely in line for a 9 figure contract this off-season. He’s been that valuable and is young enough.

Brewers need to steer clear, though. Unfortunately, with that kind of profile at SS, once the defense starts to decline you’re going to be in trouble. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

49 minutes ago, Lathund said:

So Swanson showed he could consistently hit 25-30 HRs a year by doing it exactly twice before his free agency (25 and 27, previous high being 17) but Willy Adames coming off 25, 31 and 24 HR seasons hasn't? As I mentioned in the last post, Adames has been a significantly better hitter than Swanson to that point in their careers. Now the point isn't to say he should get more than Swanson, but to illustrate just how far off many people are in their assessment of Adames when looking at somwhat comparable players. To say that there is absolutely zero chance of Willy Adames getting a 9 figure deal is just straight up wrong. It is in fact rather likely, although not a guarantee. 

2023 Adames was a 3.4 fWAR/3 rWAR/3.6 WARP player. And he has shown he can be better than that. 1 year $20m for that level of play with the potential of getting more than that is perfectly fine. Only way I see him not getting a QO is a serious injury or a total collapse, and nothing suggests that. 2023 saw his highest walk rate, lowest strikeout rate, highest xwOBA, but also lowest BABIP. Projections has him between 103 wRC+/3.1 fWAR and 112 wRC+/4.2 fWAR, and that's with projections still discounting the last two years excellent defense some. 

Teams value great defensive shortstop, even if their offense isn't much above average. Fans see a low batting average for a season and immediately think a player is cooked and worthless, but team executives don't. And they're the ones giving out the contracts. 

I want no part of paying Adames $20+m a season, for any length of a contract.  He was brutal at the plate for most of 2023, and absent a few couple week hot streaks wasn't worth anything close to what people assume he will get for 5-6 seasons in free agency.

I'd prefer they trade him and let Ortiz be their opening day SS, and let a different team play QO roulette with Adames.  If he gets off to a poor start, his value at the deadline plummets and the Brewers would have to think twice about extending the QO next offseason and instead just let him walk for nothing.

[Fear The Chorizo]

10 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah. Adames is definitely in line for a 9 figure contract this off-season. He’s been that valuable and is young enough.

Brewers need to steer clear, though. Unfortunately, with that kind of profile at SS, once the defense starts to decline you’re going to be in trouble. 

This past offseason, 1 player who hits got a free agent contract with the combination of at least 9 figures and $20+M per season....Ohtani.

 

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

This past offseason, 1 player who hits got a free agent contract with the combination of at least 9 figures and $20+M per season....Ohtani.

 

There also wasn’t a single SS close to Adames’ quality on the FA market. 

Adames’ closest comparable is Swanson, who easily cleared the nine figure threshold a year ago.

Unless Adames gets injured or collapses at the plate or on defense, he will join Swanson in receiving a nine figure deal.

[Fear The Chorizo]

19 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

There also wasn’t a single SS close to Adames’ quality on the FA market. 

Adames’ closest comparable is Swanson, who easily cleared the nine figure threshold a year ago.

Unless Adames gets injured or collapses at the plate or on defense, he will join Swanson in receiving a nine figure deal.

you may be right...I sincerely hope it isn't the Brewers signing him to it.  Of the 92 players who hit at least 20HR in 2023, only 7 had a lower OPS than Adames.  When his defense takes a step back, and it will soon, his value at SS falls off a cliff.