Is Brice Turang Taking That "Quantum Leap"?

[Jake McKibbin]

Brice Turang has had a stunning start to 2024, and seems to have shored up some of the issues that plagued him last season. Can he sustain at least average offensive output, based on what we've seen?

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

When Pat Murphy commented during spring training about Brice Turang taking a quantum leap forward this season, he drew some derision from myself and many other Brewers fans. In the first four games, however, Turang has looked like a totally different player--one much more akin to the talent scouts have touted since he was drafted in 2018. Elite defense and a strong hit tool with great baserunning instincts add up to an effective everyday big-league player, but how is Turang performing better this season?

The High Fastball
In 2023, one of Turang’s biggest issues came in how he dealt with the four-seam fastball at the top of the zone. He swung and missed 18.2% of the time, while fouling off these pitches a further 53.9% of the time, meaning fewer than 28% of his swings at upper-third fastballs were put into play. Of these, with just an 86.6-mph average exit velocity, he couldn’t do anything with the ball, resulting in a lot of cheap outs and a weighted On Base Average (wOBA) of just .275. A lot of this was a result of an uppercut swing, whereby he swung underneath the ball with regularity.

This season, as a result of some of the changes to his hand position, the size of his bat knob, and (I’m sure) other tweaks, the bat path is a lot flatter through the zone, allowing him to get on top of those high four-seamers. As a result, early on, you can see how this has reduced his swing and miss in the upper third:

Pitchers' go-to sequence for Turang last year seemed to be fastballs up to get ahead, and then put him away when he chased and missed below the zone. It happened over and over again, so being able to avoid those misses and fouls and force the pitchers above the zone to get these results will help him get into more favorable counts; he should even walk more. A higher on-base percentage brings about chances to use his speed to the devastating effect we’ve seen so far, as you can see below on a pitch that he wouldn’t have gotten close to last season:

The Problems Outside The Zone (and a word of caution)
Last season, breaking pitches below the strike zone were almost a guaranteed out against Turang. He whiffed on 70% of his swings on such offerings. He has only faced 11 such pitches so far this season, chasing five and missing on one of them. This is an incredibly small sample size, and while it does suggest he can maybe be more effective in two-strike counts in these scenarios, there isn’t enough evidence yet to know for sure. 

The good news is that Turang didn’t chase all that much in this area last year, proving much more susceptible to pitches inside or above the strike zone. This is a trend that seems to be continuing this season, so again, that chase rate and the corresponding contact issues it will bring are a source of potential regression. If he can maintain the flatter bat path, though, it should allow him to stay in the at-bat a whole lot better and shouldn’t be the end of the world for him. 

So Can He Be A League-Average Hitter?
The BABIP of .700 isn’t sustainable, and he’s not looking likely to hit for more extra bases, either. That being said, he had an 87.5% stolen base rate last year, so he doesn’t need that power to be a solid offensive contributor for the Brewers. He’s also improved in the following areas (again SSS alert):

• 89.4 mph average exit velocity on non-bunts (+3.6 mph)
• Sweet spot rate 40% (+9.9%)
• Forward velocity 80.1 mph (+4.9 mph)
• Swing and Miss Rate 11.8% (- 9.8%)
• Pitches Per Plate Appearance 4.20 (+ 0.21)

These are all signs of a hitter providing better at-bats, with a better idea of which pitches he can square up and which ones he can’t, along with a better ability to find the outfield grass. Turang is unlikely to be a 110 wRC+ hitter, but there is a definite chance he can find that 95-100 wRC+ mark with his baserunning capabilities added thereto. Alongside the incredible defense, you’re looking at a solid 3+ WAR player if he can maintain this standard.

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What do you think of Turang's start to the season? Can you see meaningful changes, or is this just another early-season smokescreen? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

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[Jason Wang]

Really hope this is the result of actual adjustments to approach and not just a fluke to start the season off. The worst part about baseball is having to wait and see if things are for real or just random.

If Brice Turang can be even a 100 OPS+ hitter, that would be such a huge boost to this team's offense over last year, especially with Hoskins and Yelich balling out. 

[wallus]

Great article. I like the adjustments and hope that will help Brice. He still seems to have a lot of soft contact that has fallen so far this season. 

I am bullish on him if they shield him against lefties and he continues to get on base.

[jay87shot]

He quite clearly can be an average offense player. I have brought this up over the years with Turang but it seemed like every place he stopped in the minors it took him 30-50 games to adjust and then ended the season extremely well. It is just is going to take longer adjusting to big league pitching, it looked like he had done that last year after the all-star break until a wretched last month or so. I have always expected him to be a .260-.280 hitter with maybe 20 HR potential when his body fills out (i think he added 10-15 pounds of muscle this offseason).

[Jake McKibbin]

53 minutes ago, wallus said:

Great article. I like the adjustments and hope that will help Brice. He still seems to have a lot of soft contact that has fallen so far this season. 

I am bullish on him if they shield him against lefties and he continues to get on base.

Glad you liked it! Yeah I like the protection this year too, lefties really did a number on him last season. He has had some soft contact but also some better contact than I expected and that has me slightly more optimistic. That single off the high fastball yesterday was such a positive sign for him.

 

53 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

He quite clearly can be an average offense player. I have brought this up over the years with Turang but it seemed like every place he stopped in the minors it took him 30-50 games to adjust and then ended the season extremely well. It is just is going to take longer adjusting to big league pitching, it looked like he had done that last year after the all-star break until a wretched last month or so. I have always expected him to be a .260-.280 hitter with maybe 20 HR potential when his body fills out (i think he added 10-15 pounds of muscle this offseason).

I'm maybe not quite so optimistic on the power front, as .260-.280 with 20 homers and his speed is an .800+ OPS and I'm not sure he's wuite capable of that without sacrificing those contact skills. You're right about his adjustments in the minors, seemed to happen at each spot after half a season.

[Samurai Bucky]

If his OBP is over .300 or more, that will be a huge lift.  He is not a power hitter and should not try to be one.  His comment during the press conference of him, "being the best version of me [him]" is perfect.  Get on base, steal bases, score runs.  Don't try to hit the ball 110 MPH off the bat each time.

[MrTPlush]

He had a 1.500 OPS last year at this time.

I mean...this is just silly to ponder already. lol

[groyce]

Every flare he hits has been finding the outfield grass. As it continues opposing outfielders will continue to come forward. This is unsustainable. He looks like Larry Bowa out there. That guy couldn’t hit a bit.

[Terry]

Quote

Every flare he hits has been finding the outfield grass. As it continues opposing outfielders will continue to come forward. This is unsustainable. He looks like Larry Bowa out there. That guy couldn’t hit a bit.

Obviously it's not sustainable duh. But with this kind of contact instead of whiffing and chasing like last year,  it might kept him around 90WRC+, which by his standards is definitely Quantum Leap.

 

[Bashopolis]

The outlying stats last year, when compared to his minor league career, were the whiffs and strike outs.  So it isn’t surprising that he is making adjustments to reduce these issues.  
They didn’t fit his minor league profile so he has a history of being able to adjust and correct to make contact.  
 

 I wonder if the Brewers hitting coaches are less likely to push launch angle to everyone this year?  
 

 

[Jake McKibbin]

4 hours ago, Terry said:

Obviously it's not sustainable duh. But with this kind of contact instead of whiffing and chasing like last year,  it might kept him around 90WRC+, which by his standards is definitely Quantum Leap.

 

Completely agree. A .585 OPS to a .685 OPS is a massive jump, and he's definitely capable of that. The AB against Stewart demonstrated just how much easier he's finding it to make contact this season

[jay87shot]

16 hours ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I'm maybe not quite so optimistic on the power front, as .260-.280 with 20 homers and his speed is an .800+ OPS and I'm not sure he's wuite capable of that without sacrificing those contact skills. You're right about his adjustments in the minors, seemed to happen at each spot after half a season.

I am not saying he is hitting 20 bombS this year or next, just that it's in him. He is 6'3", if he fills out to say 210 there will be plenty of power. He did hit like 12 HR the 2nd half of 2022 in AAA. 

[groyce]

Turang is listed at 6’0”/188 pounds. He doesn’t appear to be that big. A ten home run year would be peak power. Maybe he can be effective. It won’t be as a slugger.

[Jim French Stepstool]

22 hours ago, Terry said:

 instead of whiffing and chasing like last year

 

I believe this is key for Turang. Putting balls in play more often & drawing whatever walks he can extract will greatly increase his offensive performance regardless of power. Add in the speed on the bases & the knack for constantly saving the teams' nuts defensively and it's clear the guy doesn't have to hit a ton to be a huge plus for this team. His ability to lay down a bunt at the opportune time is a nice weapon to have too, regardless of what the analytics may say.

Fortunately there are other options vs LHP as that's a step he won't be asked to take at this point, and shouldn't be.