Article: 12 Undervalued Draft Prospects Outside the Consensus Top 35

[Jamie Cameron]

The 2024 MLB Draft is just a week away. Let’s step back and take stock of the class as a whole and dig into some under the radar profiles to know ahead of July 14th.

Image courtesy of © Nicole Mullen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

We’re about a week away from the opening night of the 2024 MLB Draft. The Consensus Board will go through a ton of updates by then as everyone seems to like to release a very ‘last minute’ version of their boards. The overall constitution won’t change much, though. It’s shuffling at this stage. So what can we make of this class? How does it compare to last year? Who are some favorites further down the board? Let’s dig in.

However a class is initially labeled is usually an impression that sticks. In this case, ‘it's a poor class’. There’s truth to that. This is most evidenced by the shortstop and prep bat demographics. In 2023, there were 22 shortstops with top 100 profiles in the consensus board. In 2024, that’s just 14, with a number likely to move off the position. Looking at prep bats in general, there were 28 in the top 100 in 2023, compared to 20 this year.

There’s a solid crop of college bats in this years’ class through pick 65, so I’d expect model based teams to load up on bats early. The lack of shortstops bolsters the infield crop this year. There’s 17 college infield profiles (1B, 2B, 3B) in the top 100 this year, compared to 11 last year. Move to the top of the board, and that becomes more stark, with two first base only defensive profiles (Caglianone, Kurtz) in the top ten. That’s not my flavor of risk profile. Overall, there’s a lack of premium, up the middle defense.

Instead of thinking about what demographics of a class are strong, I find it more helpful to mine which demographics are strong in a particular area of the board. While prep bats are not a strong demographic, there are five prep shortstops in the 30-40 range (Gillen, Sanford, Johnson, Lewis, and Lindsey). Catching is an improved demographic from 2023, with 3 profiles (Moore, Janek, and Lomavita) sitting in the 20-30 range, and two more (Cozart and Bazzell) in the 40-60 range.

So what is the strength of this class? After the college bats in the first half of the top 100, it’s pitching depth, both college and prep. 43 of the top 100 profiles in this class are pitchers, evenly split between college (21) and prep (22). There’s even a healthy amount of lefties (15), compared to just 8 last year. There’s diversity in the profiles, too; power, spin, control, it’s all represented. I suspect in five to seven years when we look back on this class, organizations who did well had good process and good luck with their pitching selections.

What about some under the radar player profiles? As usual, in our coverage on DTS and this site, we’re drawn towards profiles linked to the teams we cover. Who are some profiles I’m bullish on heading into the draft? I detailed some below along with some information on each profile and their current consensus board position. With these picks, I worked to stay away from players ranked in the top 35 on the consensus board, to shine a light on some prospects further down the board.

Tyson Lewis, SS, L/R, Millard West HS, NE (38)
Headline: Prep shortstop with a chance for speed and power
Lewis is a left-handed hitting prep shortstop prospect in a class in which that demographic is a significant weakness. The Arkansas commit has gained a ton of strength in the last year, which has translated into better bat speed and more power.

Lewis has a quick swing supported by lightning fast hands that at present profiles as a line drive machine. While some don't love his high hand placement it's been working well for Lewis. His athletic frame offers plenty more in the tank in terms of future power if he's able to get to his new found bat speed with more consistency.

Defensively, Lewis has plus speed and great quickness which aids his defense at shortstop. Solid actions and an above average arm give him a good chance to stick there as a pro. This is a potential power speed combination that won't remain on the board for long in July. 

Joey Oakie, RHP, R/R, Ankeny Centennial HS, IA (46)
Headline: Lower launch prep arm with potent fastball/slider combination 
Throwing from a lower launch and lower three quarter slot, prep righty Joey Oakie has some of the best stuff of any high school pitcher in the 2024 class. A long athletic frame with projection left and a quick, whippy arm are indicative that there is likely more in the tank for Oakie, velocity wise.

On the mound he throws a fastball that's been up to 97 mph with a ton of run. It's one of the most movement heavy fastballs in the class. One wonders, given his release, if he might add a four seamer to play up in the zone further down his development path.

For secondaries, Oakie has a nasty slider. It has downward bite and a ton of sweep and has generated upwards of 20 inches of horizontal movement, with gaudy spin rates to match. Oakie also has a changeup, that is a fringy, developmental pitch (that he hasn't needed much).

Kyle DeBarge, SS, R/R, Louisiana-Lafayette (59)
Headline: Undersized, spark plug infielder who does everything well
DeBarge is one of the better contact hitters in the entire draft class. In the box, it's a quiet operation with a short, compact swing aided by lightning fast hands. DeBarge has excellent bat to ball skills, and rarely chases. He doesn't strike out much, but doesn't walk much either.

There's some sneaky power to the pull side. Through the end of his 2024 season, DeBarge hit .356/.418/.699 (1.117) with 21 home runs (43 XBH), 24 walks, and 34 strikeouts in 60 games played. That's a significant step forward in almost every offensive category.

DeBarge can impact the game with his other tools, too. He has plus speed with good instincts on the bases and a plus arm (he used to play catcher). While he might not be the smoothest operator at shortstop, his arm and lateral quickness aid his range, and he has a decent shot of sticking there as a professional.

Chris Levonas, RHP, R/R, Christian Brothers Academy, NJ (66)
Headline: Prep righty with improved stuff, affinity for spin, and projection left
Levonas is a gangly right-handed prep pitcher currently committed to Wake Forest. He has a package of interesting traits and skills on the mound. His fastball has taken a significant velocity jump this spring, up from the 90-92 mph range, now sitting 93-95 mph and touching 98 mph. It's an offering with good spin that is likely to be a plus pitch, if it isn't already.

Levonas has also shown great proficiency in spinning the baseball, with a slider/curveball breaker pairing that carry spin rates between 2800-3000 rpms, in addition to some feel for a changeup. Levonas commands and moves these pitches around the zone well, in addition to getting good extension at release.

A loose, quick arm, with a four pitch arsenal he commands well, a proclivity to spin the baseball, and plenty of projection. It's an up arrow for this profile heading into July.

Aidan May, RHP, R/R, Oregon State (78)
Headline: College righty with a devastating sweeper, tweener starter/relief profile
May has long been an arm watched by evaluators. After stops in JUCO and at Arizona, he settled at Oregon State in 2024 after injuries and inconsistency hampered his first few years of college baseball.

Throwing from a three quarters slot, May throws a sinker in the 92-94 mph range that has been as high as 97 mph and is a solid above average offering. It's paired with a sweeping slider that is already a plus pitch. May can generate north of 3,000 rpms on the pitch and has the ability to move it around the zone. There's also a changeup there with some fade, that could use greater velocity separation from his fastball.

While some have already penciled May into a relief role, I think it's likely a drafting organization gives him a shot to start. There's an injury track record, but there's enough traits and enough of an arsenal to stick at starter as a pro.

Cole Mathis, INF,  R/R, College of Charleston (79)
Headline: Data darling with great batted ball metrics and otherworldly Cape performance
Mathis plays for a smaller school at College of Charleston but has forced himself into the day one conversation through a combination of outstanding batted ball metrics in 2023 and an otherworldly Cape performance in 2023.

He smacked 11 home runs in his summer stint, in addition to posting consistently strong exit velocities in his 2023 college season, up there with some of the best in the nation. There's plenty to like about his approach and swing as he walks more than he strikes out, leading to a strong on-base platform. As you might expect, Mathis has excellent bat speed and punishes pitches in the zone with consistency.

He'd previously been a two way player, up to 97 mph on the bump but is focused on hitting in 2024. He warmed up after a little but of a slow start. His final line in 2024 was .335/.472/.650 (1.122) with 14 home runs (33 XBH), 46 walks, and just 32 strikeouts in 52 games.

Gage Miller, 2B/3B, R/R, Alabama (91)
Headline: JUCO transfer who mashed in the SEC with uncertain defensive home
After spending some time dominating JUCO competition in Alabama, Gage Miller has made a seamless transition to SEC play in a loud breakout season that could see him end up a day one pick.

Miller finds the barrel of the bat plenty and has a good approach at the plate, not chasing too much out of the zone. There's good bat speed and that, combined with his natural strength, give him some pull side power. In his first 50 games for the Crimson Tide in 2024 he has 19 home runs, 26 walks, and just 23 strikeouts, buoying an impressive offensive output.

He'll have to hit well as there's only fringy to average other tools. There's not much speed and it's an average arm and glove at best that might transition Miller to a corner outfield spot eventually. Still, putting up the kind of offensive season he has transitioning to the SEC is an impressive feat. Miller finished 2024 with a .381/.474/.702 (1.176) line with 18 home runs (32 XBH), 27 walks, and 24 strikeouts in 55 games for the Crimson Tide. That’s outstanding production against a leap in competition.

Peyton Stovall, 2B, L/R, Arkansas (94)
Headline: Potentially plus hitter with better underlying numbers than his solid 2024 production
Stovall is a really good hitter whose offensive profile is underpinned by a picaresque left handed swing. It's line drive power all over the field, he can pull a home run. The power tool projects to be average at best.

Stovall fits best as a second baseman professionally, with a solid glove and arm, and above average speed. Coming off surgery in the back half of 2023 to repair his labrum, Stovall has finally had a clean bill of health and the opportunity to show what he can do over a full season in 2024.

He ended the season with a .340/.409/.535 (.944) line with 9 home runs (19 XBH), 20 walks, and 42 strikeouts in 48 games for the Razorbacks. There's plenty to like here in an offensive profile headlined by a potentially great hit tool.

Daniel Eagen, RHP, R/R, Presbyterian (118)
Headline: Large-framed right hander from a small school who dominated the competition in 2024.
Eagen's fastball took a velocity jump this spring after he moved into the rotation full time. It sits 93-94 mph but can get up to 96 mph with some carry, thrown from a high slot. Eagen throws a pair of breakers, a downer curveball in the low 80s, and a slider, both of which have been good bat missers in 2024. There's also a changeup in the arsenal, but it's seldom been used and needs more velocity separation from his fastball.

Eagen had a great 2024 season. In 77.2 innings of work, he posted a 2.67 ERA, walking 28 and striking out 121. Eagen has taken a step forward in strike throwing in 2024. The combination of size, a little projection left from added strength, and the current arsenal give him a good chance to stick as a starter at the next level.

Ryan Campos, C, L/R, Arizona State (148)
Headline: Work-in-progress catcher with excellent track record of collegiate offensive production
Campos is a left-handed hitting backstop who has gotten better and better at everything in his time at Arizona State. It's a very hitterish profile, with a strong approach at the plate. He walks plenty, doesn't strike out much, and has good bat to ball skills. Additionally, Campos has been getting to more impact in 2024, with 36 XBH, compared to 16 in 2023.

Campos is a work in progress behind the plate. It's an average arm and the supplementary skills (blocking, receiving etc.) need some work. He draws rave reviews for his baseball IQ, character, and work ethic however, qualities that should give him the best shot at getting to average or fringe average defense. If Campos can't stick behind the plate, the bat has enough about it that other positions, such as first base and corner outfield, are a possibility. Campos finished 2024 with a .364/.461/.610 (1.072) line with 11 home runs (36 XBH), 40 walks and 25 strikeouts in 48 games.

Sean Keys, 3B, L/R, Bucknell (188)
Headline: Extra-base hit machine with good power and bat-to-ball skills
Keys has one of the more analytically trendy profiles in the college hitting demographic this cycle and is coming off a monster season at Bucknell, with a Cape performance track record to back it up.

A strong lower half anchors a violent swing which has done serious damage in 2024. Keys pairs this with an excellent approach at the plate, and impressive bat to ball skills (14% InZoneWhiff% in 2024).

There's some question about the viability of Key's defensive profile at third base. If he can stick there, it'll be a significant value add, such that he could wind up a top 100 pick. If not, the offensive profile will play at first base. In 2024, Keys put together a .405/.535/.798 (1.333) line with 35 extra base hits (13 home runs),  35 walks and 25 strikeouts in 46 games.  

LP Langevin, RHP, R/R, Louisiana (199)
Headline: Some of the best fastball traits in the class led to a whopping K% in 2024.
Langevin is a JUCO transfer who made his way to Louisiana-Lafayette and put up staggering strikeout numbers, thanks to one of the best fastballs in the draft class. Hailing from Quebec, Langevin throws his fastball in the 92-94 mph range (top 97 mph). He throws from a lower slot, generates a ton of spin and produces plenty of ride from a low launch, a combination that produced a miss rate north of 45% on his fastball in 2024. Langevin has an average slider and a lagging changeup. He sometimes worked as a starter in college ball, but the future is likely as a reliever after putting up 15.2 K/9 in 2024.

Who are your favorite under the radar prospects for the 2024 draft? Join the discussion with a comment below.

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[James Zumstein]

Some great choices here, Jamie.  I'd be happy if the Brewers were able to get a high upside HS arm at #34 like they did last year with Knoth, and Oakie and Levonas are good options.  If I had to choose one right now, I might lean towards Dasan Hill, as 6' 5" lefties who have a four-pitch mix and throw in the mid-90's don't grow on trees.  Another southpaw I feel is undervalued is Mike Gutierrez from UC - Santa Barbara.  In three years at UCSB, against quality competition, he went 23-3 with an ERA under 4.00 each season and had a great BB/K ratio.  And as a senior, we could probably sign him for very little, like we did last year with several guys to invest in more young talent.

[LouisEly]

Yep, some really good choices.  Keys and Miller are both worth taking a shot on in the 3rd and 4th if they're still there to see if they can make something defensively of them. 

Normally I'd think that a player such as DeBarge would be a prototypical pick for the Brewers at #57, but with so many talented IFs at the lower levels of the org I don't know if they go that route.

[jay87shot]

Love me some undervalued guys. Great list. Love Ryan Campos, I must have misses him in my research to this point. Here are 12 more I have liked (rating mlb.com).

Chris Cortez (85): Big arm reliever, who averaged almost 3 innings a game. Could be a faster developing Shane Smith.

Jackson Barberi (99): 6'4" 185 HS arm, 92-94 up to 97, promising slider and changeup. Lots of project ability.

Conrad Cason (102): 17 year old 4 spot, potential 2 way player. Great fastball and secondary stuff. I could see a Knoth like rise here.

Anson Seibert (108) 6'8" HS player 92-94 up to 97. We love giant pitchers.

Robert Hipwell (139): Strong bat, was suspended for most of last season. It doesn't seem like we worry much about that if it isn't a major character flaw (Zamora, Erceg).

Drew Rerick (140): 6'5" 230 HS from North Dakota, throws up to 98. Could be overlooked just because he is from ND.

Nate Dohm (165): Solid pitcher for Miss. St. who missed a good chunk of the year with a forearm strain. 55 fastball, slide, curve, and control could make for a steal.

Corey Collins (170): A top notch college senior bat, no real defensive home. He has some catcher potential even at 6'5" and no one develops defensive catchers better than us.

Emiliano Pitre (173): More bb than k's with sneaky pop (31 xbh, not rated (30) well) and great athleticism. 

Luke Sinnard (185): 6'8" 250, hurt all of 2024 (Tommy john June 2023). 114 k's/25 bb in 86 innings at Indiana in 23'. Definitely some big upside here.

Jace Souza (186): HS OF from Hawaii, solid across the board skills and upside. 

Jakob Christian (216): 6'5" 225 OF/1B prospect who destroyed at San Diego and a division 2 school in 2023 (54 hr's in 103 games). As a later pick there looks to be some real upside.

[nate82]

14 hours ago, jay87shot said:

Robert Hipwell (139): Strong bat, was suspended for most of last season. It doesn't seem like we worry much about that if it isn't a major character flaw (Zamora, Erceg).

Just to be clear Hipwell’s suspension was for PED use.  To me that doesn’t matter though he will probably be tested more than others.  He also seems to be defensively a LF or 1B.  His arm should put him at 3B or RF but I don’t believe he has the footwork to play 3B and athletically I am not sold on him in RF.  If he is there in the 3rd or 4th round I would take the gamble but any earlier and I would be a bit concerned.