Is the Brewers' Offense in Serious Trouble?

[Tim Muma]

You can still see the relentless, competitive offensive style at times, but some of the Milwaukee Brewers’ hitters have seen their numbers nosedive over the past several weeks. It has made the offense less consistent and more frustrating, but not fully dysfunctional--yet.

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Throughout any marathon, 162-game MLB season, even the best offenses will go into multiple slumps. Typically, the top run-scoring clubs limit the frequency and length of such struggles. So are the 2024 Milwaukee Brewers in the midst of a long slump – or a couple of slumps – that will turn at any moment? Or is the club in serious trouble as they approach the final two months of the season--especially now that Christian Yelich will be out for a while?

As always, it’s probably a little bit of both. Perception and reality don’t always match up perfectly, and statistics don’t tell the whole story. What was shocking was that the broad-scope offensive output went from elite to below-average starting in early June.



If the Brewers’ offense averaged 5.1 runs per game for the season, they would lead MLB. But their last 43-game rate of 4.2 runs per game would rank 19th. That is a significant drop. Though some would say it’s technically a relatively small sample, it’s well beyond a couple of weeks that one can completely brush off.

While the offense scuffled for the past two months, the Brewers still found ways to keep winning. That is where the value of competitive, relentless at-bats comes into play. Milwaukee went 23-20 during that time, with some help from the pitching staff. That wasn’t near the winning percentage of their first 60 contests (36-24 record), but it kept the Brewers moving forward and safely atop the NL Central.

Aiding in the Crew’s continued winning ways, despite that longer period of offensive issues, was a 22-game run that resembled the first third of the season. From Jun. 23 to Jul. 21, Milwaukee’s run-scoring average was back at 5.1, with the slash line slightly better than the opening 60 contests (.262/.338/.415). The Brewers went 13-9 during that run, picking up the leaky pitching staff that could have sunk the club.

So, maybe the offensive slump ended briefly, but they are starting another one. Milwaukee had averaged just two runs per game over the last five before a minor breakout Sunday against Miami, but they still managed to win a couple of those games. Is this another sign of a long-term drought, where the aberration was that 22-game reprieve that ended in Chicago last week?

There has been plenty of speculation and suggestions for trade candidates, whether it’s outfield options or other left-handed bats to replace Yelich or ideas to stem the tide of Brice Turang’s statistical cliff dive in the middle of the season. A couple of those bigger names are now off the table, though, and it’s always difficult to see the Brewers making such a splash.

That means the best-case scenario for Milwaukee is getting their own guys to figure it out, and to rediscover the early-season success that has evaded them recently. Those drop-offs, which have been many on the roster, are the biggest reason for the offensive troubles.

You can look at other starting points and find better or worse stats for certain players, but sticking with the previous 43 games (since Jun. 4), several guys stand out as major problems.

• Brice Turang: .231/.290/.331
  • He has a .205/.283/.291 slash line at home this season
• William Contreras: .248/.309/.373
  • His issues go further back, to May 15 (.677 OPS)
• Rhys Hoskins: .183/.259/.351
  • Before his recent strong stretch, he owned a .581 OPS from Jun. 4 to the All-Star break
• Joey Ortiz: .188/.291/.267
  • He owns a 12% line drive percentage during this period

Those are a lot of outs in the lineup on an everyday basis. Thankfully for the Brewers, Yelich (.892 OPS) and Jackson Chourio (.847 OPS) were hitting extremely well to make up for the many holes, and Eric Haase owned an .826 slugging percentage in just 25 plate appearances. Now, can others step up and get back to the levels many expect, especially in the absence of Yelich?

There have been some positive signs of late. Since Jul. 1, Contreras has put up an .806 OPS, with seven doubles and a pair of homers. Hoskins could be at the start of a heater, with three home runs, six RBIs and an OPS north of 1.000 in the last six contests. Willy Adames owns a .324/.386/.527 line in July in the middle of the order. All will be vital for a return to offensive quality, but others will need to figure it out, too.

One of the outfielders not named Chourio must add more value on offense, if GM Matt Arnold doesn’t swing a trade. Their defense is terrific, but it won’t make up for the emptiness at the dish. Sal Frelick has a .679 OPS, Blake Perkins is riding a .692, and Garrett Mitchell (in limited time) has been the best of the three with a .706. When you say those numbers out loud, it makes you think an outside outfield bat is a necessity.

Whether the Brewers add in the outfield, the infield or not at all, the power – or lack thereof – is perhaps the biggest concern. Though Milwaukee’s offense has utilized speed, aggressiveness and contact to scratch across runs, the lineup has lacked real punch since a hot start to the 2024 season. The Brewers are 23rd in home runs with 106, and rank 15th in slugging, at .398 for the year. A few of the internal options can certainly turn on the power switch, but it better come soon and more often than what we’ve seen.

So, back to the original question: Is the Brewers’ offense in serious trouble? They appear to be teetering on the edge of a full-blown problem scoring enough to supplement the pitching staff – which needs its own help. The difference is that Milwaukee is getting healthy on the mound, including the return of relief ace Devin Williams on Sunday. The offense, however, desperately needs the current group to find a groove or get significant help via a trade.

What do you think needs the most urgent action? Is it Turang’s drop-off, especially hitting at the top of the lineup? Is it the lack of offensive prowess in the outfield? Or is there another area you would focus on for improvement? Once the trade deadline passes, it will be time to put up or shut for whoever is on the club – new or old.

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[Devinep]

Based on what it took to get Isaac Paredes, the brewers should’ve been all over that. 
 

they really need to get one of: Brandon Lowe, Lamont Wade, Vladdy jr (reverse platoon splits), Brent Rooker (even splits), Nate Lowe, or Yaz

[BlightyBrew]

IMO, the Florida series to me highlights the weakness of the offense in terms of power and XBA power in the line-up.

Brewers currently give up the 2nd most HRS in the NL with only the Rockies giving up more.  So when the pitching gives up runs it usually is via the HR route.  This hurts because the Brewers are 10th in NL in hitting HR's, so we are always going to be out slugged by the opposition.  Every other team that is in the playoffs that the Brewers are most likely to face in the NL hits more HR's than the Crew.

Brewers get on base, 2nd in the NL(way above league average) but our lack of XBA production in the line-up cancels that out.  Brewers are 8th in the NL in SLG(slightly above league average), 10th in 2B's(below league average), and 8th in 3B's(at league average), 6th in K's(above league average).  These areas also negates the main weapon of speed on the roster.

So the Crew needs to get 2-3 hits an inning coupled with BB to generate runs.  .  Slap the ball on the infield and hope the speed generates a hit.  

This works over a 162 game schedule, as indicated that we are 5th in the NL runs and R/G and 4th in AVG, but in a playoff situation where you are always facing the best SP and Bullpen in a series will, like in years past, be a tough formula for winning.  Especially, when one swing of the bat against the opposition can put you down by 2-3 runs immediately.  Preface, I said tough not impossible.  Anything can happen in a short series.

Adding more more SLG to the line-up I think coupled with SP that can save the bullpen is necessary not only for this year but for the next window of contention.

[sveumrules]

There's a couple different ways to slice things up for sure. One would be to just separate out their insane 13 game stretch to start the season versus what they've done since...

First 13 (0329-0413) 10 W - 3 L
287/358/478 (135 wRC+) 6.69 R/G
Next 92 (0414-0728) 50 W - 42 L
249/327/388 (103 wRC+) 4.47 R/G

I think those "Next 92" numbers are about the best estimate we have of the group's ever elusive true talent level at this point. The good news is that even with offense that is only a smidge above league average they've still played at an 88 Win pace for the majority of the season after a blazing start.

Another way to slice it up is to follow the ebbs and flows by team record, this time I'll include some pitching numbers and league ranks during each stretch to give a bigger picture view...

First 13 (0329-0413) 10 W - 3 L
Hit: 135 wRC+ (2nd) | 6.69 R/G (1st)
SP: 63 IP (26th) | 87 ERA- (8th) | 1.2 rWAR (11th)
RP: 53 IP (10th) | 91 ERA- (12th) | +0.61 WPA (8th)
[Pretty much clicking on all cylinders. Offense was unsustainably hot, bullpen was more good then elite, starters weren't throwing many innings but were preventing runs when they were out there.]

Next 23 (0414-0508) 11 W - 12 L
Hit: 97 wRC+ (14th) | 3.91 R/G (21st)
SP: 114 IP (22nd) | 114 ERA- (23rd) | 1.2 rWAR (23rd)
RP: 89 IP (7th) | 96 ERA- (14th) | +2.00 WPA (3rd)
[Offense regressed with Yelich hurt, starters put up their worst stretch of the year, bullpen made sure they won the games they were supposed to limiting the fallow stretch to only one game under .500]

Next 51 (0509-0703) 31 W- 20 L
Hit: 105 wRC+ (13th) | 4.75 R/G (9th)
SP: 236 IP (28th) | 98 ERA- (13th) | 4.1 rWAR (12th)
RP: 216 IP (1st) | 68 ERA- (3rd) | +5.71 WPA (1st)
[Offense bounced back with Yelich's return, starters kept the team in most games, bullpen was dominant. Went from tied for first in the NLC with Chicago on 0508 to having a seven game lead over STL on 0703]

Last 18 (0704-0728) 8 W - 10 L
Hit: 104 wRC+ (18th) | 4.39 R/G (18th)
SP: 84 IP (30th) | 99 ERA- (11th) | 1.0 rWAR (18th)
RP: 77 IP (9th) | 92 ERA- (14th) | +0.66 WPA (15th)
[Pretty middle of the pack across the board with the exception of the SP/RP innings. Crazy thing about the offense during this recent stretch is that most of the roster has been hitting...

Adames (78 PA | 129 wRC+), Contreras (76 PA | 105 wRC+), Chourio (68 PA | 137 wRC+), Hoskins (61 PA | 138 wRC+), Yelich (52 PA | 135 wRC+), Mitchell (47 PA | 130 wRC+), Perkins (36 PA | 126 wRC+), Bauers (27 PA | 192 wRC+) and Haase (25 PA | 214 wRC+) is nine of thirteen hitters above average and eight of them comfortably so.

That leaves Frelick (57 PA | 89 wRC+) who has been below average as a regular, Monasterio (24 PA | 63 wRC+) who has been bad as the last man on the bench, then Turang (73 PA | 8 wRC+) and Ortiz (47 PA | 10 wRC+) who have been absolutely brutal.]

If anyone made it this far, my takeaway is that in addition to the obvious SP need Arnold & Associates should to be looking long and hard for an IF that can supplant Monasterio and give Turang/Ortiz more consistent rest days.

[rolafaive]

1 hour ago, Devinep said:

Based on what it took to get Isaac Paredes, the brewers should’ve been all over that. 
 

they really need to get one of: Brandon Lowe, Lamont Wade, Vladdy jr (reverse platoon splits), Brent Rooker (even splits), Nate Lowe, or Yaz

I wouldn't expect many more moves if any, they are banking on all these I.L returnees and that Yelich will return sometime, although a shell of himself, they are holding onto their minor leaguers for dear life. I don't think Mark A. has given out the okay for any major money moves, guess won't have enough to invest in soccer ownership.

[Brian]

I personally think William Contreras and Brice Turang need more rest or time off.  Brewers have played 105 games thus far and Contreras has appeared in 101, Turang has appeared in 101 games also. 

I'm sure I will get grief from some but the body, even in it's mid 20's cannot operate at a high level playing that much, that is also why I think some players would love to take "the juice" if they could get away with it,  because there is no slowing you down then, plus strength increases playing every day. 

[David Crawford]

Eric Haase, we are carrying him as a third catcher or DH option but he can play some outfield.  What he did in spring training combined with what he has done in 25 AB's for the Crew would normally lead to more at bats.  Any particular reason he does not get an opportunity to infuse our lineup with some slugging?  

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, David Crawford said:

Eric Haase, we are carrying him as a third catcher or DH option but he can play some outfield.  What he did in spring training combined with what he has done in 25 AB's for the Crew would normally lead to more at bats.  Any particular reason he does not get an opportunity to infuse our lineup with some slugging?  

I'm good with him getting some ABs, especially to spell Contreras for what's to come. But underneath the HRs & impressive early production there's a LOT of strikeouts which underlines that he probably isn't some kind of 6-or-8-week answer. By this time tomorrow I'll guess we'll be minus a catcher.

[Jim French Stepstool]

10 hours ago, Devinep said:

Based on what it took to get Isaac Paredes, the brewers should’ve been all over that. 
 

they really need to get one of: Brandon Lowe, Lamont Wade, Vladdy jr (reverse platoon splits), Brent Rooker (even splits), Nate Lowe, or Yaz

I certainly wouldn't have minded Paredes. But say what you will about Morel, if Tampa wanted a ML-ready 3B with some HR pop back in the deal we had nothing to offer.

I'd like Wade but have no idea what he'd cost.

[BruisedCrew]

One thing about these comments that compare the Brewers to other teams. When I look at these I focus on just NL teams because those are the teams that the Brewers are competing with for playoff positions. I also focus specifically on NL playoff contenders because they are also potential playoff opponents. At this point, i consider the Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers, Braves, Padres, DBacks, Mets, Cards, and Pirates to be playoff contenders

Because I do that, I might be more critical than posters who seem to be happy, or at least satisfied, if the Brewers are near league average or "middle of the pack"in any category.  When I hear "middle of the pack" I think the fringes of making the playoffs and having to get exceptionally hot to advance very far in them. 

So, when I look at the Brewers offense for the months of June and July and see their production of 4.22 RPG, I don't just see it as 12th in the NL, but as 8th among the 9 playoff contenders. Their June-July record of 27-24 was aided significantly by the runs allowed per game of 3.86, which was second best in the NL.

But I also note that the run prevention sagged from 3.63 RAPG in June (second in the NL) to 4.25 RAPG (8th in the NL and 5th among playoff contenders) in July as the SP continued to deliver short starts and the bullpen showed signs of wear.

So, on the question of whether the offense is in serious trouble, the answer for me is a definite maybe unless the run prevention can return to its early season form. The record of 11-13 in July that includes losing 4 series at home, including 2 to some of the NL's worst teams, might be sending an alarm.