Fri. 8/9 - Logan Henderson to Make AAA Debut

[sveumrules]

Biloxi must be watching the Big League club and taking notes.

Just poured on five more top of six with a Connor Scott three run homer accounting for 60% of those runs.

[sveumrules]

A Jheremy Vargas sac fly scored Jadher Areinamo to give Wisco a 7 to 4 lead through seven.

Jeferson Figueroa has gone seven up six down with just an HBP and errant pickoff throw against 2 K.

[Joseph Zarr]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Yoho with his AAA debut today. Statcast kept mixing up his changeup as a curveball

It's not just Statcast:

😁

[sveumrules]

Brock Wilken singled home Dylan O’Rae for the 11th Biloxi run top of eight.

Nick Merkel covered the last two innings scoreless (3 H | 0 BB | 4 K) to put the finishing touches on the 11 to 1 win.

[Joseph Zarr]

3 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Brock Wilken singled home Dylan O’Rae for the 11th Biloxi run top of eight.

Nick Merkel covered the last two innings scoreless (3 H | 0 BB | 4 K) to put the finishing touches on the 11 to 1 win.

Love me some Merkel, yes I do.

[Joseph Zarr]

I just got back in from a full day on 'The Fahmmm'. Shame Henderson gets credited with that Loss. About to see JB get rocked by the come backer. 

[sveumrules]

Figueroa went one two three in the eighth with another strikeout before Tyler Bryant worked around a trio of walks to put up a zero (1 K) in the ninth to seal the 7 to 4 TRats victory.

Pratt finished 3 for 5 with a double and steal, Jadher 2 for 4 with a double and sac fly.

[wiguy94]

19 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

It's not just Statcast:

😁

I think the announcers are getting the pitch types from trackman/statcast so not surprising Hem got it mixed up.

[Joseph Zarr]

Well, the good thing (if I can even say that here) by my eyes having watched the JB come backer several times now: It seems unlikely that 98 mph chopper hit his throwing hand or arm - and he did carry his glove back to the dugout with said throwing hand/arm. We are a bit obfuscated in the view given he turned his body during the action and it blocked the CF camera view. It looked like it bounced over that arm and smacked the elbow or upper arm of his glove hand. Either way, let's just hope this was a precautionary jolt and nothing more. Man oh man.

[Joseph Zarr]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

I think the announcers are getting the pitch types from trackman/statcast so not surprising Hem got it mixed up.

I thought the exact same thing. And, can you blame them? The view from above home plate as we all know is not all that kind to actually seeing the game. BUT, I would think they would also have a CF camera view running as well. No matter. It was a patented Yoho dirty change-up.

[Joseph Zarr]

For anyone wishing to see the Bukauskas exit, go to 2:01:00. 

Man, JB can not catch a break in 2024. He was looking really solid since his return too. Just that very reliable get ahead of hitters and pound the zone pitcher we saw all last season. Was ahead 0-2 in this count. Billy McKinney took the count 2-2 and smacked that ball. Again, I see it smacking his glove side elbow-to-inside upper arm. Obviously, I could be wrong here.

 

[sveumrules]

26 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

Love me some Merkel, yes I do.

Here’s a fun list.

There are thirty one Brewers minor league pitchers with at least 100 IP from 2023 through yesterday.

Merkel is at 3.23 xFIP (3rd) | 3.36 FIP (3rd) | 1.08 WHIP (4th) | 15.5 SwStr% (4th) | .208 AVG (5th) | 28.5 K% (5th) | 7.6 BB% (8th) | 3.78 ERA (9th) |  0.76 HR9 (10th) 

Looks like his killer is a 64.9 LOB% (28th) which is probably why his ERA hasn’t quite lived up to the peripherals.

[Joseph Zarr]

12 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Here’s a fun list.

There are thirty one Brewers minor league pitchers with at least 100 IP from 2023 through yesterday.

Merkel is at 3.23 xFIP (3rd) | 3.36 FIP (3rd) | 1.08 WHIP (4th) | .208 AVG (5th) | 28.5 K% (5th) | 7.6 BB% (8th) | 3.78 ERA (9th) |  0.76 HR9 (10th) 

Looks like his killer is a 64.9 LOB% (28th) which is probably why his ERA hasn’t quite lived up to the peripherals.

What's fun about FIP, for me and my obsessive game watching habits, is I could very easily see that list and know the forest for the trees. In other words, FIP means quite a bit for me until it doesn't. Ergo, Tobias Myers and Manuel Rodriguez have stuff the FIP metric criteria don't validate in a positive light - which, well, is fairly humorous in their respective cases. I was touting Tobias hard at the end of last season having taken his entirety of work and then that ridiculous last two weeks.  In other words, I'd feel absolutely fine tossing their placements in that particular list in the trash. HOWEVER, FIP is also fun because I can turn around and use it to showcase a guy like RHP Nick Merkel who doesn't jump off the page from any macro bird's eye view of stat grabbing but because I've watched him so much over the past two season and truly seen him grow into the version of himself we see today...a list like that could be used to further bolster my 'claims' he is a super slept on relief pitcher in the system. Filthy filthy breaking stuff and he's starting to hit 94-95 mph on the regular now. That list also makes me <sad face> because I know what we had in RHP TJ Shook. AND, I am still pretty danged upset we traded him for a fringe MLB lefty when I can see 'The Shookster' playing any eventual role in a MLB pitching staff. Anywho, thanks for sharing! That is a fun list.

Sidebar: 

ALSO really fun that it boosts my RHP Chase Costello claims - ie, I want him in any bullpen I'm managing. Love his toolkit pretty hard. AND, LHP Adam Seminaris has been sneakily really really good this season. He can be a bit inconsistent but he's been, overally, really really good. It also validates how I feel about LHP Nick Bennett - I won't elaborate here as I don't want to shoot strays to a guy who works as hard as he does!😂

[sveumrules]

Yeah, for me FIP/xFIP are more of a jumping off point than a final verdict, but also probably the best we have for communicating the most important statistical information in a quick and dirty fashion.

Looks like Myers 4.59 FIP is mostly on account of that uugly 1.81 HR9, but xFIP understands HR rate is fluky so he comes in with a much better 3.75 mark there which is 6th in the sample.

He’s obviously showing some promise as a FIP beater in MLB too at 3.02 ERA | 4.40 FIP so far.

Manuel’s 3.7 BB% is first by a decent margin in the sample with Meeker second at 6.2%, but he just doesn’t K enough guys and allows too many HR for FIP’s tastes.

It also doesn’t know that he threw all those innings super efficiently as a not even really exaggerating boy among men either.

Looks like Manuel is the most extreme fly ball pitcher in the sample as well at 47.7% which is an encouraging trait for a potential FIP beating profile.

Something else kind of interesting is despite the low 20.1 K% (23rd), Manuel’s 15.6 SwStr% is 3rd in the sample.

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Yeah, for me FIP/xFIP are more of a jumping off point than a final verdict, but also probably the best we have for communicating the most important statistical information in a quick and dirty fashion.

Looks like Myers 4.59 FIP is mostly on account of that uugly 1.81 HR9, but xFIP understands HR rate is fluky so he comes in with a much better 3.75 mark there which is 6th in the sample.

He’s obviously showing some promise as a FIP beater in MLB too at 3.02 ERA | 4.40 FIP so far.

Manuel’s 3.7 BB% is first by a decent margin in the sample with Meeker second at 6.2%, but he just doesn’t K enough guys and allows too many HR for FIP’s tastes.

It also doesn’t know that he threw all those innings super efficiently as a not even really exaggerating boy among men either.

Looks like Manuel is the most extreme fly ball pitcher in the sample as well at 47.7% which is an encouraging trait for a potential FIP beating profile.

Something else kind of interesting is despite the low 20.1 K% (23rd), Manuel’s 15.6 SwStr% is 3rd in the sample.

How many other pitchers who threw a solid chunk of innings in the ACL are qualified for that list? Feel like swinging strike rates are absurd in the ACL so that’s probably doing some heavy lifting for Rodriguez and I feel like most other guys who spent time in the ACL might not have hit that 100 IP mark.

[Joseph Zarr]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

How many other pitchers who threw a solid chunk of innings in the ACL are qualified for that list? Feel like swinging strike rates are absurd in the ACL so that’s probably doing some heavy lifting for Rodriguez and I feel like most other guys who spent time in the ACL might not have hit that 100 IP mark.

I don't know about that in this instance. Not that this is speaking to your question here directly, but by nearly every measure he has pitched better in Low-A than he did in the ACL where he only started 5 games and pitched less than 1/3rd of his innings. He has a better BAA, a better walk rate, a slightly better K rate, a better ERA, a better WHIP...all against older and better hitters pitching twice as many innings. By every measure, he is a better pitcher in 2024 than he was at any time in 2023. This isn't saying the swinging strike rate isn't augmented by that time in the ACL but I just don't know if we can automatically infer that given the overwhelming improvement overall in a season he has started every outing, pitched a complete game, and faced many more hitters and better hitters at that. I just don't know how much 30 % of his innings is going to impact the swinging strike percentage. Unless, as you intimate, it's an absurdly high rate. Given the other peripherals I think that's a leap.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I don't know about that in this instance. Not that this is speaking to your question here directly, but by nearly every measure he has pitched better in Low-A than he did in the ACL where he only started 5 games and pitched less than 1/3rd of his innings. He has a better BAA, a better walk rate, a slightly better K rate, a better ERA, a better WHIP...all against older and better hitters pitching twice as many innings. By every measure, he is a better pitcher in 2024 than he was at any time in 2023. This isn't saying the swinging strike rate isn't augmented by that time in the ACL but I just don't know if we can automatically infer that given the overwhelming improvement overall in a season he has started every outing, pitched a complete game, and faced many more hitters and better hitters at that. I just don't know how much 30 % of his innings is going to impact the swinging strike percentage. Unless, as you intimate, it's an absurdly high rate. Given the other peripherals I think that's a leap.

Yeah I’m just talking about the swinging strike rate not anything else. According to Fangraphs he has a 12.6% swinging strike rate in A ball this year and had a 29.7% swinging strike rate in the ACL last year. If that’s where @sveumrules is drawing the data from then those ACL innings are definitely doing a heavy share of the lifting to that 3rd overall 15.6% swinging strike rate.

[wiguy94]

It’s honestly pretty funny seeing Yoho getting a bunch of publicity on Twitter today when we here on the minor league forum have known for months how disgusting he is. I mean we have all been saying since basically his first few innings that this dude had no business being in high A. It’s like the world has been let in on our little secret.

[homer]

11 hours ago, sveumrules said:

The Plank Walker? Because it falls off suddenly? And his name is Yoho kind of like what a pirate says about his bottle of rum?

Yoho Yoyo? Yoyoho? Yo ho ho?

or maybe something about defying the laws of physics....

[CheeseheadInQC]

7 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Yeah I’m just talking about the swinging strike rate not anything else. According to Fangraphs he has a 12.6% swinging strike rate in A ball this year and had a 29.7% swinging strike rate in the ACL last year. If that’s where @sveumrules is drawing the data from then those ACL innings are definitely doing a heavy share of the lifting to that 3rd overall 15.6% swinging strike rate.

I used to site it occasionally, but I've grown skeptical of any of the swinging strike rate data for short-season leagues on Fangraphs because the numbers are so out of whack with the full-season leagues. I feel there is a chance that they are pulling data from the gameday logs where all strikeouts have traditionally just been posted as the three-pitch variety, all walks 4-pitch and all outs first-pitch. If that is the case, they are nowhere close to accurate.

[wiguy94]

12 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

I used to site it occasionally, but I've grown skeptical of any of the swinging strike rate data for short-season leagues on Fangraphs because the numbers are so out of whack with the full-season leagues. I feel there is a chance that they are pulling data from the gameday logs where all strikeouts have traditionally just been posted as the three-pitch variety, all walks 4-pitch and all outs first-pitch. If that is the case, they are nowhere close to accurate.

I agree. I've suspected the same for a while.

[Joseph Zarr]

#FangraphsTruthers

I'm not even convinced they play baseball games in the Complex, given what I've seen nightly in the Live game logs. It could all just be an AI simulation.