Wily gunna get PAID

[bigred]

On 9/2/2024 at 10:45 PM, rickh150 said:

Career year for Willie….

It's strange how many times players have phenomenal seasons RIGHT before they hit free agency. Hmmm.....? 🤣🤔

[homer]

51 minutes ago, bigred said:

It's strange how many times players have phenomenal seasons RIGHT before they hit free agency. Hmmm.....? 🤣🤔

I would like to see some evidence for that. My hunch is that it doesn't matter. 

FWIW, a few projection systems were very close to Willy's numbers this year:

ZiPS proj - 250/328/465

actual #s to date: 253/336/471

[folly412]

A third baseman, but Chapman gets the ballpark deal we were thinking as a floor for Adames: 6 / $151M

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/41130330/giants-3b-matt-chapman-reach-6-year-extension-worth-151m

 

 

[tmwiese55]

Giants are gonna regret that one, can't believe they weren't just happy that he's had a good enough that he'd opt out of the current deal.  For this thread, I'd rather give that to Adames than him and then Adames could move to 3B a couple years down the line when he slows down.   

I suppose they do have money there so could still sign Willy, and still move him to 3rd in 2-3 years when Chapman is perpetually on the DL, cut, or being forced to play 1B while being paid 25 mil to hit .205.

[Ignitor 4ever]

I'm just thrilled the Brewers did not trade Adames at the deadline.  At some point you have to go for it a little more often.  Bites at the apple are great but sometimes you need to go for a mouthful rather than a nibble.  The Yelich injury was unfortunate, to say the least, but the Brewers still have a solid line up, decent starting pitching and a very good bull pen.  Hope to catch some lightning in a bottle in October and they need a guy like Adames in the lineup to do that.

[nate82]

I am not even sure this is a career year for Adames.  He is just above his career total slash line of .248/.322/.445 vs 2024 slash line of .253/.336/.471.  Other than his slugging and OBP he is basically at where you would expect him.  His OBP isn't all that out of line either only being .014 higher than his career mark which looks to be because of his reduced K% of 25.2 in 2024 versus 27.3 career.  He is basically having the same year as he was last year just with a little bit more luck as his babip in 2023 was .259 versus .299 currently. 

Adames is actually below his career babip of .308.  His slugging is also up over his career but that is only up .026.  His walk rate is similar to last year but is up over his career numbers.  Basically this is the same ole Willy that he has been with the Brewers and the Rays. 

I think 2021 was more of a career year for Adames than the current season is. 

[wiguy94]

30 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I am not even sure this is a career year for Adames.  He is just above his career total slash line of .248/.322/.445 vs 2024 slash line of .253/.336/.471.  Other than his slugging and OBP he is basically at where you would expect him.  His OBP isn't all that out of line either only being .014 higher than his career mark which looks to be because of his reduced K% of 25.2 in 2024 versus 27.3 career.  He is basically having the same year as he was last year just with a little bit more luck as his babip in 2023 was .259 versus .299 currently. 

Adames is actually below his career babip of .308.  His slugging is also up over his career but that is only up .026.  His walk rate is similar to last year but is up over his career numbers.  Basically this is the same ole Willy that he has been with the Brewers and the Rays. 

I think 2021 was more of a career year for Adames than the current season is. 

Offensive environments matter. Offense is down league wide this year so putting up the slashline he has this year is a better year than if he put up the slashline in 2019 with the juiced baseball. His 122 wRC+ is his career high for a full season and 13 wRC+ better than his career average. He's also matched his career high in fWAR with 20 some games to play.

[nate82]

16 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Offensive environments matter. Offense is down league wide this year so putting up the slashline he has this year is a better year than if he put up the slashline in 2019 with the juiced baseball. His 122 wRC+ is his career high for a full season and 13 wRC+ better than his career average. He's also matched his career high in fWAR with 20 some games to play.

I would still put his 2021 season as a better season than this one for Willy.  League wide 2021 is very similar to 2024.  If you go by wRC+ 2021 was worse than the current season. 

[wiguy94]

7 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I would still put his 2021 season as a better season than this one for Willy.  League wide 2021 is very similar to 2024.  If you go by wRC+ 2021 was worse than the current season. 

Well it's easy to say that because he was so good in Milwaukee in 2021. I'd agree the best he looked as a Brewer was in 2021 but he was horrible in Tampa Bay before he got traded which hurt his overall season numbers.

[Fear The Chorizo]

41 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Well it's easy to say that because he was so good in Milwaukee in 2021. I'd agree the best he looked as a Brewer was in 2021 but he was horrible in Tampa Bay before he got traded which hurt his overall season numbers.

It looked that much better just with the Brewers because he got one of his typical extended in-season offensive slumps out of the way in a different uniform.  The seeing the ball differently in a home ballpark not named the Trop helped initially, too.

[nate82]

1 hour ago, wiguy94 said:

Well it's easy to say that because he was so good in Milwaukee in 2021. I'd agree the best he looked as a Brewer was in 2021 but he was horrible in Tampa Bay before he got traded which hurt his overall season numbers.

It is a full season regardless. 

He had a bad month in 2021 and then took off.  Looks very similar to his 2024 season.  Regardless if he was on two teams in 2021 or not that season looks very similar to his 2024 season.  This is just arguing semantics and I am not even sure what your point is here. 

[rickh150]

Adames has similar #s, sure, to 2021.... sure.   Yet, how is it even debatable whether this is his best season?  The clutch hits?  The game altering, not to mention MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBLL RECORD tying 3 run HRs?  The veteran leader of this 1st place group?  Even with a somewhat down year defensively, I don't see a fair comparison to any other year he has played. 

[wiguy94]

49 minutes ago, nate82 said:

It is a full season regardless. 

He had a bad month in 2021 and then took off.  Looks very similar to his 2024 season.  Regardless if he was on two teams in 2021 or not that season looks very similar to his 2024 season.  This is just arguing semantics and I am not even sure what your point is here. 

You're posting raw numbers not league adjusted numbers...

[nate82]

13 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

You're posting raw numbers not league adjusted numbers...

2021 and 2024 are basically the same for league wide so not sure why they need to be league adjusted numbers and it is basically the same for league adjusted.

His 2021 season was just as good as his 2024 season so far.  Willy has been just as good as he has been in previous seasons. 

[BrewerFan]

8 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

Giants are gonna regret that one, can't believe they weren't just happy that he's had a good enough that he'd opt out of the current deal.  For this thread, I'd rather give that to Adames than him and then Adames could move to 3B a couple years down the line when he slows down.   

I suppose they do have money there so could still sign Willy, and still move him to 3rd in 2-3 years when Chapman is perpetually on the DL, cut, or being forced to play 1B while being paid 25 mil to hit .205.

Nobody will take the Giants money! They've been trying to pay players. I'd guess they are the team that goes after Soto the hardest this off-season other than the Mets and Yanks, but...doubt he'll sign there.

The Chapman deal though, I just looked at his numbers...I don't think that's a bad deal for them. He doesn't have much of an injury history, he's been a really good, but not great player. 

 

I think Willy would be a good target there and...while I wouldn't want the Brewers to go 6/150 for either(wouldn't HATE it with Willy) the Giants can afford it. 

I'd guess a lot of Willy's value this off-season will be in how teams view his defense. Do they view it like I do, a little bit of just a fluky down year, more errors than normal, or do they think it's the start of a serious regression? They have real experts, I'm just looking at physical attributes which...seem to be fine. And then the other part of that, would he consider playing 3B if a team has a SS like...the Yanks. 

[tmwiese55]

1 hour ago, BrewerFan said:

Nobody will take the Giants money! They've been trying to pay players. I'd guess they are the team that goes after Soto the hardest this off-season other than the Mets and Yanks, but...doubt he'll sign there.

The Chapman deal though, I just looked at his numbers...I don't think that's a bad deal for them. He doesn't have much of an injury history, he's been a really good, but not great player. 

 

I think Willy would be a good target there and...while I wouldn't want the Brewers to go 6/150 for either(wouldn't HATE it with Willy) the Giants can afford it. 

I'd guess a lot of Willy's value this off-season will be in how teams view his defense. Do they view it like I do, a little bit of just a fluky down year, more errors than normal, or do they think it's the start of a serious regression? They have real experts, I'm just looking at physical attributes which...seem to be fine. And then the other part of that, would he consider playing 3B if a team has a SS like...the Yanks. 

Fair. And yea these are the types of things a team with money can do. Overpay for ok/solid guys.  Chapman will already be 32 to start next year and has been a shaky hitter the last few years already.  I'm sure they just hope to get 3 years like this out of him before he falls off, good luck.  On relook I do admit I thought the last two years were more like 720 ops years instead of 750-760.  But generally speaking he's only been a 750 type guy and he's already 32 and you owe him for 6 years.  Once a 750ish guy falls to 700ishyou can get the same thing or darn close for league min pretty pretty easily.   And I know he's good at D, but already 32 and you just need to pay big money for good D.    But yes, this is the difference between big market and small market, they can do it and live with the last 2-4 years being trash. 

ETA: I thought I saw something a few weeks ago with Boston as sleeper for Willy. They have a 3B and young SS but I think idea was the other SS would move to 2B, essentially giving up on Story.   If I'm Willy I'll take that option, fun to play in Bos and that lf wall is great for him. Try to get an opt out after 2-3 years and cash in again in his low 30s after hopefully pumping his stats off the wall