September Auditions for October Jobs Aren't Going To Plan for Jake Bauers and Hoby Milner

[Jake McKibbin]

Each player has gotten lots of opportunity to assert themselves as deserving of a playoff roster spot. Neither has quite done so. What now?

Image courtesy of © Rafael Suanes-Imagn Images

Bryan Hudson’s option to Nashville to make room for Hoby Milner was as much to give Milner a chance to push a postseason case as it was to recuperate Hudson’s arm. Jake Bauers has seen more time at first base in the last 10 days than he had in the first 29 days of August. It seems both are being given an opportunity to fill a specific role, but it’s safe to say neither have quite taken the opportunity before them.

The Bauers audition is specifically for that first base role. Rhys Hoskins, Gary Sánchez and Andruw Monasterio are subpar defensive first basemen compared to Bauers, who actually grades out relatively well. He had been seeing more time at DH, with Pat Murphy feeling more comfortable pinch-hitting in that role, but the use of him at first base is to see whether the Brewers can shore up defensively while still having two power bats, in Bauers and a DH of Hoskins or Sánchez. We’ve seen some streaky hot hitting from Bauers when his plate discipline has been impeccable, but that hasn’t been the case since the start of August.

For a short period after going to a toe tap instead of a big leg kick, Bauers's chase rate was at an elite level of 9.9%--a fairly unsustainable rate, to be frank, but it brought about some impressive production. Since the start of August, that rate has almost doubled, to 18.8%. That's still better than average, but it’s meant a massive downturn, because he cannot seem to make any contact when chasing. In the same time period, he made contact with just 30% of the out-of-zone pitches he swung at, meaning he can’t foul off good pitches in two-strike counts and therefore has far less opportunity for a mistake pitch he can do damage against.

Then you have the bigger issue: he isn’t doing damage on those mistakes anymore. Above, you can see the difference in expected slugging during his hot stretch in May, compared to his showing since Aug. 1. The hitter on the left would be invaluable to the Brewers this season, but the one on the right (with all the additional weaknesses Bauers brings) is borderline unplayable. He looks lost and very low on confidence, which has left him on the outskirts of a playoff roster, perhaps only as a late-inning defensive replacement. Hitting .128 with a 42.6% strikeout rate since the trade deadline is not going to push his case all that far.

The Brewers are likely to pivot to a more experienced and trustworthy weapon in their arsenal, in Gary Sánchez, for that DH role, and to gamble on Hoskins defensively at first base. Both have considerably more experience in a playoff run. Both are the same type of streaky hitter as Bauers. But crucially, they have shown themselves able to handle the bright lights of October and the big moments; Bauers has not. The Brewers have enough left-handed bats to keep a balance in their lineup while doing this, and I’d expect to see more Sánchez at-bats as the season comes to a close.

Meanwhile, Hoby Milner returned from the IL on Sept. 3, with two appearances in high-leverage situations so far. They haven’t gone well. Milner’s role would have been in that left-on-left matchup, with his release point particularly difficult for southpaws to pick up. However, in those at-bats, Milner gave up a seeing-eye single to score an inherited baserunner against the Cardinals (this was against a right-handed batter, after the Cardinals pinch-hit for Brendan Donovan) and a three-run home run against the Rockies to break a tie on Sunday. Note the pinch-hit move. Remember, that is a very likely response from an opposing manager in the postseason, and as such, it fits the audition quite nicely.

Milner has been a resounding success story for the Brewers in recent seasons, but even accounting for some early-season misfortune, he hasn’t been getting the results you would expect. For him to have two successive failures in the exact situation to which Milner would be used during the playoffs is quite damning. He’s getting less swing-and-miss and fewer chases than in 2023, and the extra balls in play have found holes, while the hard contact has left the ballpark more regularly.

Hudson’s struggles with velocity on both his fastball and breaking pitches compared to the start of the season opened a door for Milner, but it doesn’t seem like he’s ready to take it. The Brewers will have Aaron Ashby and DL Hall as strong lefthanders out of the bullpen who can get outs against both sides of the platoon, while Jared Koenig has also shown great results this year. They have enough southpaw arms for the spaced-out playoffs, and even a depleted Hudson has shown significantly more promise than Milner has this season.

If Milner makes the Brewers' 26-man playoff roster at this point, I would be surprised. Bauers is fading away, into a position where he may not see a single playoff at-bat. Both of these players will need some strong performances to push their cases as the season comes to a close.

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What do you think of Hoby Milner and Jake Bauers in the context of a playoff roster? Can you see them having a chance to make an impact? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below!

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[Kripes - Brewers]

Yeah, I don't think we'll see either on the playoff roster. Most of us have been lamenting the Bauers trade since it happened. If Hoskins wasn't so, well, just bad, you could tolerate Bauers as a power bat off the bench, but Sanchez can do that. With Hoskins, we're down to just hoping there is some sort of playoff miracle and he finds some sort of heroics at this point. Not the kind of lineup anchor we all hoped for - he's the kind that drags you down rather than steadying the ship. In a defensive emergency, Monasterio would have to step in.

Not sure what happened with Milner. Maybe the freaky arm slot is just not surprising batters anymore. I'd roll with the other lefties too.

[Outlander]

I'm not seeing anybody else in the organization that will take Bauers spot. He has his role as power bat off the bench and late inning 1B defensive replacement. Too late now to do anything. They got Hoskins to deliver in the playoffs and imagine he will get plenty of opportunity.

[Team Canada]

Agree, he may not bat a ton, but I bet we'll see him as a defensive replacement.

[Sixtolezcano]

Both are bad ballplayers. Like everyone else, the only role I see for Bauers is a late inning defensive replacement. Milner can be DFA’ed at this point for all I care.