Mets (Peterson) vs Brewers (Rea): 9/29/24, 2;10pm

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

This is the most interesting scenario AND (probably) the one most likely to benefit the Brewers. I could see the case for hoping to lock in a matchup with the Mets after today, but you have to take the marginal gain of forcing your opponent to play 18 innings of at least semi-meaningful baseball over the chance that one team loses two legs of the DH. That's always the less likely outcome, and you would think it would be especially so in this case.

The other bit of news here is that it's impossible for us to face the Braves. Anyone worried about their pitching (they could still throw Fried and Lopez in games 2 and 3, even if they'd have to do a bullpen game or something in Game 1) will take some solace in that.

EDIT: Absent straight collusion, of course, which is probably the game theory optimal play in this scenario. I'm not arguing for collusion. Just saying it's clearly the best possible outcome for both teams, a split where you don't have to work hard.

[wiguy94]

Is anyone else surprised the Mets threw Diaz with a 5 run lead today? 

[brewerfan82]

I think I'm rooting for a Mets game 1 victory forcing Atlanta to pitch Sale in game 2. Just feels like the safer bet for a split than the Mets losing game 1 and starting whoever they would end up throwing in game 2 at that point.

[willie key]

Interesting day tomorrow.    

[young guns]

I'm rooting for the reverse.  Baring some sort of weird collusion, both teams should want to go all out to win game 1 and the winner will probably punt on game 2 whereas the loser should need to still go all out for game 2.  Since a split gets us the Mets, I'm hoping they have to throw everything at the wall to try to win both games.

[brewerfan82]

2 minutes ago, young guns said:

I'm rooting for the reverse.  Baring some sort of weird collusion, both teams should want to go all out to win game 1 and the winner will probably punt on game 2 whereas the loser should need to still go all out for game 2.  Since a split gets us the Mets, I'm hoping they have to throw everything at the wall to try to win both games.

Fair enough, but I'm much more concerned about the Mets "Metsing up" that situation, lol

[Brewcrew82]

18 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

I think I'm rooting for a Mets game 1 victory forcing Atlanta to pitch Sale in game 2. Just feels like the safer bet for a split than the Mets losing game 1 and starting whoever they would end up throwing in game 2 at that point.

Sale having to pitch in game 2 really does nothing for us because we can no longer face the Braves.

The optimal scenario is a close Braves win in Game 1, where the Mets have to burn through one of Severino/Megill and some of their A relievers, followed by a non-blow out game 2 in which they burn more A relievers and whoever of Severino/Megill doesn't pitch Game 2. They would then be left with none of Severino, Megill, Manaea, and Quintana to pitch Game 1, unless they decide to go with Manaea on three days rest. And Severino and Megill would be taken out of the WC round entirely.

An extra inning game in Game 1 would be icing on top of the cake.

[Brewcrew82]

14 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Is anyone else surprised the Mets threw Diaz with a 5 run lead today? 

Pure stupidity and we should be rooting for him to have to pitch tomorrow. 

[wiguy94]

15 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Pure stupidity and we should be rooting for him to have to pitch tomorrow. 

And if he pitches hopefully he throws 20 plus again.

[brewerfan82]

31 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Sale having to pitch in game 2 really does nothing for us because we can no longer face the Braves.

If you assume the split, this is true. However I'm not ready to make that assumption and would rather have Sale and the Braves offense vs. the Mets "Sunday lineup" in game 2 than Severino and the Mets offense vs. the Braves "Sunday lineup" in game 2.

That said, this is all splitting hairs. Your scenario is definitely the best outcome, but until it happens I'm just much more concerned about the teams actually splitting and not ending up with the rested Diamondbacks than I am about what players the Mets get to rest in game two.

[Brewcrew82]

Another positive byproduct of today is that we'll now almost certainly get one of the two later games.

Kansas City-Baltimore is effectively a guarantee for the early game as the only game in the Eastern Time Zone and involving two small markets.

Detroit-Houston is Central Time Zone like us and thus our main competition. However, working in our favor is the fact that Houston's opponent is Eastern Time Zone and a small market, while the DBacks are Pacific and the Mets are the biggest market. And it's unlikely MLB would force the Mets to play in the afternoon after playing two games the previous day. 

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Another positive byproduct of today is that we'll now almost certainly get one of the two later games.

Kansas City-Baltimore is effectively a guarantee for the early game as the only game in the Eastern Time Zone and involving two small markets.

Detroit-Houston is Central Time Zone like us and thus our main competition. However, working in our favor is the fact that Houston's opponent is Eastern Time Zone and a small market, while the DBacks are Pacific and the Mets are the biggest market. And it's unlikely MLB would force the Mets to play in the afternoon after playing two games the previous day. 

When are they going to announce which series get which time slots? Surely they won’t wait until the doubleheader is finished tomorrow, right?

[Brewcrew82]

3 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

When are they going to announce which series get which time slots? Surely they won’t wait until the doubleheader is finished tomorrow, right?

I would think tonight seeing as we already know where all the games are going to be played, but if we don't hear by the end of tonight then they're obviously waiting for the doubleheader to be finished which agree would be stupid. 

[markedman5]

 

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

43 minutes ago, brewerfan82 said:

If you assume the split, this is true. However I'm not ready to make that assumption and would rather have Sale and the Braves offense vs. the Mets "Sunday lineup" in game 2 than Severino and the Mets offense vs. the Braves "Sunday lineup" in game 2.

That said, this is all splitting hairs. Your scenario is definitely the best outcome, but until it happens I'm just much more concerned about the teams actually splitting and not ending up with the rested Diamondbacks than I am about what players the Mets get to rest in game two.

No, the Braves are totally ruled out. If they get swept, they're out. If they sweep, we play the Dbacks. In case of a split, we play the Mets.

[brewerfan82]

2 hours ago, Cool Hand Lucroy said:

No, the Braves are totally ruled out. If they get swept, they're out. If they sweep, we play the Dbacks. In case of a split, we play the Mets.

I'm not talking about the Brewers playing the Braves, which I understand is not possible in the first round. I'm saying I'm rooting for a split tomorrow between the Mets and the Braves and I think the most likely way that occurs is if the Mets win the first game, which will force the Braves to pitch Sale in the second game.

If the Mets win the first game, the Braves will pitch Sale (2.38 ERA, 2.65 xFIP, 6.4 WAR, 177.2 IP) in the second game. If the Braves win the first game, the Mets will pitch Severino (3.91 ERA, 4.12 xFIP, 2.1 WAR, 182 IP) in the second game. I'd rather have Sale pitching for the team we need to win the second game than Severino.

I agree the best scenario at the end of the day is for the Mets to lose the first game and then use up more of their pitching to win the second game before heading to Milwaukee. However, it feels like a very Mets thing to do to somehow lose both games tomorrow, lol. So just for my nerves, I may be rooting for the Mets the first game as I'll feel more comfortable that Sale and the Braves will take care of business in a must win game 2 than I do the Mets, regardless of the Braves resting all their players in that scenario.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

14 hours ago, brewerfan82 said:

I'm not talking about the Brewers playing the Braves, which I understand is not possible in the first round. I'm saying I'm rooting for a split tomorrow between the Mets and the Braves and I think the most likely way that occurs is if the Mets win the first game, which will force the Braves to pitch Sale in the second game.

If the Mets win the first game, the Braves will pitch Sale (2.38 ERA, 2.65 xFIP, 6.4 WAR, 177.2 IP) in the second game. If the Braves win the first game, the Mets will pitch Severino (3.91 ERA, 4.12 xFIP, 2.1 WAR, 182 IP) in the second game. I'd rather have Sale pitching for the team we need to win the second game than Severino.

I agree the best scenario at the end of the day is for the Mets to lose the first game and then use up more of their pitching to win the second game before heading to Milwaukee. However, it feels like a very Mets thing to do to somehow lose both games tomorrow, lol. So just for my nerves, I may be rooting for the Mets the first game as I'll feel more comfortable that Sale and the Braves will take care of business in a must win game 2 than I do the Mets, regardless of the Braves resting all their players in that scenario.

Got it. Yeah, that minimizes the downside risk of the Mets losing both games for sure.