Brewer Fanatic 2024 Offseason Top 20 Prospects - No. 7: Brock Wilken

[Spencer Michaelis]

Welcome back to Brewer Fanatic's 2024 top 20 prospect breakdown! In this edition, we will be taking a deep dive look at Brock Wilken, who comes in as the seventh-best prospect in the system, as voted on and compiled by the Brewer Fanatic community.

Image courtesy of © Dan Powers/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin / USA TODAY NETWORK

#7 Brock Wilken (Biloxi Shuckers)

The Brewers' first-round selection in the 2023 draft, Wilken had an extremely successful career at Wake Forest, including becoming the career home run leader for the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) with 71, He set that record in only three seasons as a Demon Deacon. He did so well in his brief introduction to pro ball in 2023 that he was aggressively assigned to Double-A to begin 2024, appearing to be on a potential fast track to MLB. Unfortunately, Wilken dealt with a 94-MPH pitch to the face in April, which caused facial fractures, and he proceeded to struggle to produce for the majority of the season. 

What to Like:
According to Baseball America, Wilken limited his chase rate to a very solid 22% in 2024, a number that was markedly better than average in Minor League Baseball. His ability to avoid fishing out of the zone led him to a strong 13.3% walk rate, which helped him post an on-base percentage over 100 points higher than his batting average.

As one might gather, based on the home run record mentioned above, Wilken possesses a ton of raw power. At Wake Forest, he posted multiple exit velocities over 115 MPH and carried a 90th-percentile exit velocity of over 108 in his final season. His 71 career home runs were topped off with 31 in his draft year. Statistically, there were not a ton of positives to pull from for Wilken in 2024, but his 17 home runs are certainly the biggest. 

Wilken got to his power as often as he did largely because of his batted-ball profile. He pulls the ball a lot, and he hits the ball in the air a lot, which can be a deadly combination when you hit the ball with authority. The power output, as well as his proclivity for drawing walks, led to him posting a 106 wRC+, meaning he was a slightly above-average hitter for the Double-A level, despite batting only .199 for the season. The Southern League ended up being a very pitcher-friendly league in 2024, and that (along with the HBP to the face) is an important piece of context to consider when looking at Wilken’s season on the whole.

Despite being a below-average runner in terms of speed, Wilken does show good baserunning instincts. It won’t show up in stolen bases, but he has demonstrated an ability to get good reads on pitches in the dirt, as well as being able to read balls well off the bat. He appears to cut the bases well too. Those little things can at least partially help him make up for his lack of straight-line speed.

While Wilken still doesn’t grade out very well as a defender at third base overall, he did a respectable job at the hot corner in 2024. His hands are solid, he does a good job of throwing off-platform when charging in on the ball, and he has a very strong arm. 

What to Work On:
Wilken showed that he can make the majority of the plays that are hit right to him or in front of him, but his range when moving laterally is still lacking. He also had some issues throwing the ball accurately across the diamond, with throws often sailing high on him. A move to first base still appears to be the most likely outcome in the future, which will put even more pressure on his bat.

While Wilken did not chase at an alarming rate overall in 2024, he did show a weakness on low-and-away breaking balls. He struggled to lay off of them, especially in two-strike counts. According to Baseball America, he only swung at 66% of in-zone pitches, which meant he was in two-strike counts quite often. A patient approach is usually a positive trait, but this approach bordered on passive. Finding his pitches to drive, and not burying himself in pitcher’s counts, could go a long way toward Wilken being more productive in the future.

That passive approach was further hampered by his 30.5% whiff rate. A player like Luke Adams doesn’t swing very often either, but he only whiffs at a 20% clip. The high whiff rate, combined with a low swing rate, can often result in a low batting average and a lot of strikeouts, and that was the case with Wilken. While he had shown signs of a potentially average hit tool in 2023, his 2024 profile was more in line with a below-average hit tool. 

Wilken’s BABIP was abnormally low, coming in at .249 for the season, placing him in the 7th percentile among all minor-league hitters. While that number is likely due for some positive regression on its own, improving upon his 18th-percentile line drive rate would go a long way toward helping that happen. Wilken batted .776 on liners in 2024, compared to the .695 number that was the league average for Double-A. On the other hand, he hit .186 on grounders in 2024. The league average was .236, which does seem to show some bad luck for Wilken, especially when considering the fact that he hits the balls pretty hard. However, Wilken’s lack of speed does play a part here too, as infield hits are few and far between.

What’s next:
Wilken is currently taking part in the Arizona Fall League. Unfortunately for him and the Brewers, the results have been even worse there than they were in Double-A, and signs are pointing to him most likely returning to Biloxi to begin 2024. The hope will be that he makes some big strides this offseason, especially as he gets further removed from his hit by pitch to the face. It’s impossible to know the effect that ended up having on Wilken as the season progressed, but it would be understandable if it took a mental toll on him. If that is the case, a mental reset could be the most important thing he does the entire offseason.

His profile will always be carried by his offense, and if he can get off to a hot start, the Brewers will likely want to move him to Nashville pretty quickly. While it will only be his second season of professional baseball, 2025 is going to be an important one for Wilken to prove that his status as a top ten prospect in the system is warranted.

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What are your thoughts on Wilken? What are you hoping to see from him in 2025? Let us know in the comments!

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[SF70]

Maybe just too much to overcome mentally with the beaning, and physically with the whiffs. Hope I’m wrong.

[Matt]

I thought I might have been too optimistic placing him #12. 

[Spencer Michaelis]

47 minutes ago, Matt said:

I thought I might have been too optimistic placing him #12. 

For me personally, that's more in line with where I have him currently. Seven is definitely a bit optimistic imo, but that's what the voters decided!

[Joseph Zarr]

I like the way young Mr. Wilken has come across in his interviews since he first became a Brewer. Seems like a young man with his head and heart in the right place. I'll just say that off the bat. I'm rooting for this young man as I would any young man chasing their dreams. We were all riding high off the 2024 season and spring training where we saw legitimate signs of a hot corner stud. Anyone who watched the games throughout this period likely felt the same. And, well, at the current juncture that's where the feel good ends for me - that version of Brock Wilken is very very much in the past.

Brock went 2-for-5 last night and hit a double. Any XBH at this time is a brief moral victory - it is a glimmer of hope. I mean it was in yet another loss for Peoria (5-14 on the season - yeesh). He also struck out again.  He is 4th in the AFL with 20 K's amongst his 55 official AB. He is 2nd in lowest BA amongst regulars with a whopping 0.145 BA. He has the 4th lowest OPS. This for a young man in an epic continued ongoing struggle getting every opportunity in the 3, 4, and 5 spots of the line-up. Oh, to be a highly touted 1st round draft choice. And, this isn't an anomaly of the AFL - Wilken hit just like this in his opening weeks pre-injury and just like this over his final two months of the regular season and into the playoffs. In other words, this is now officially a trend. 

Let's put it this way: If Brock Wilken wasn't a first round draft pick with a first round pedigree is he even considered for a spot in the AFL? Maybe (?) but likely not. I can't help but believe Wilken is suffering from an ongoing fall out of the mental injury suffered when that HBP broke his face (I mean, this isn't a stretch: he's said so himself). Yet, there's also a part of me who can't compute how exactly that works out given his three best OPS months of his 2024 season came in successive months immediately after being HBP. Regardless, well, he continues to get the late-2023 all of 2024 Aaron Ashby treatment - ie thrown to the wolves nearly every game of the week. The Fast Track to the MLB (as Baseball America proposed in 2023) has certainly hit a prolonged pit stop. How long will it last? Hard to tell. It certainly has continued. 

This 2024 Wilken season, as a general whole, is pretty much a train wreck from our POV's. We absolutely have no idea what we have here in terms of a prospect. Everything is now muddied. The only thing we can hope for is it is an extreme anomaly due to the fall-out from the HBP. But, if we're being honest, that line of thinking also kind of feels like a stretch if we look at the greater context of his season. That's really what we're left with here. A lot of uncertainty. 

I leave this article thinking one last thing: INF Jadher Areinamo not in the Top 20. 3B Brock Wilken snug in the Top 10 at #7. Amazing. Absolutely amazing. Hard times for players who produce at All-League levels amongst the Brewers voting fanbase.😅 

 

[sveumrules]

47 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I leave this article thinking one last thing: INF Jadher Areinamo not in the Top 20. 3B Brock Wilken snug in the Top 10 at #7. Amazing. Absolutely amazing. Hard times for players who produce at All-League levels amongst the Brewers voting fanbase.😅 

 

Areinamo vs Wilken is pretty much the safer lower floor prospect versus the boom or bust higher ceiling profile debate personified.

Jadher’s speed, defense, contact ability, sneaky pop and baseball acumen make him about a safe a bet as there is for any 20yo in the Midwest League to be a future MLB player.

Brock hitz bombz. The end of his season and current AFL run have been ugly no doubt, but from May 8th through July 31st he did put up 303 PAs of 238/340/442 (133 wRC+) with a 13.2 BB% and 23.4 K%. It’s not like he went full on EBJ.

As much as we might try to rationalize our internet prospect ballots, a lot of times the dream element works it’s way in there somehow no matter what so ceiling probably wins out more than the real life boom bust ratio indicates it probably should.

[Joseph Zarr]

16 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Brock hitz bombz. The end of his season and current AFL run have been ugly no doubt, but from May 8th through July 31st he did put up 303 PAs of 238/340/442 (133 wRC+) with a 13.2 BB% and 23.4 K%. It’s not like he went full on EBJ.

This is where I struggle with the HBP storyline. Those were the three consecutive months (ending in July, his very best month) immediately after returning from the HBP. Is there some sort of strange delayed PTSD? I personally see a player in a very prolonged slump who is swinging at pitches out of the zone and not barreling enough hittable balls. Unlike EBJ, I can't point to a glaringly discombobulated pre-swing set up - who, btw, by season's end had ended up in a traditional stance for the very very brief period to end his season. A fairly stunning and welcome development. In current form Wilken, I see a player fighting himself and possibly forcing the issue. He had the HBP to the face and he had his firstborn child this year. Those are monumental events. The thing is, in professional sports the majority of the athletes are dealing with injury and challenges. I don't see Wilken's context inside and outside of the diamond all that remarkable. Is it unique? Yes, unique to Brock Wilken's life and I certainly have compassion for him. I certainly want to see him succeed. But, it's also OK to say he hasn't been playing at a top 10 level for quite awhile. 

[ecjimg]

4 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I leave this article thinking one last thing: INF Jadher Areinamo not in the Top 20. 3B Brock Wilken snug in the Top 10 at #7. Amazing. Absolutely amazing. Hard times for players who produce at All-League levels amongst the Brewers voting fanbase.😅 

 

Joseph- I want to start off by saying that I really appreciate and enjoy all of your posts- You sharing first hand information based on your observations.  Ive seen now at least two times now where you have mused about Areinamo not being voted in the top 20 by those of us that aren't as connected to the minor league players as you are. (Almost condescending although Im sure its not your intent). I can say the reason I didnt rank Areinamo higher is because I hadnt read as much from YOU regarding him until after I voted each time. I trust your opinions much more than the guy who picked some prospect that got released as his #1! Keep up the good work- and keep lettin us know what we arent reading in Baseball America!

[Joseph Zarr]

13 minutes ago, ecjimg said:

Joseph- I want to start off by saying that I really appreciate and enjoy all of your posts- You sharing first hand information based on your observations.  Ive seen now at least two times now where you have mused about Areinamo not being voted in the top 20 by those of us that aren't as connected to the minor league players as you are. (Almost condescending although Im sure its not your intent). I can say the reason I didnt rank Areinamo higher is because I hadnt read as much from YOU regarding him until after I voted each time. I trust your opinions much more than the guy who picked some prospect that got released as his #1! Keep up the good work- and keep lettin us know what we arent reading in Baseball America!

Definitely not meant to be condescending. Very accurate in that respect. I apologize if it comes across that way. Sincerely. I also, very much self-admittedly, have my own ongoing battles with Top 20, top anything rankings really 😅. And, well, that is entirely my very own set of issues. And, perhaps indicative of my own shortcomings as a man, I let those issues wheeze out in the public forum where I may come across like a whiny petulant teen. Sigh. Every individual is most definitely entitled to their votes and for their very own reasons. And, I also think the discourse at large is generally fun and the disagreements very healthy. The baseball discourse here is absolutely top notch. At the end of the day, all any of us truly want (I hope) is for these players to achieve the very best versions of themselves - in baseball and in life. 

[TURBO]

30 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

Definitely not meant to be condescending. Very accurate in that respect. I apologize if it comes across that way. Sincerely. I also, very much self-admittedly, have my own ongoing battles with Top 20, top anything rankings really 😅. And, well, that is entirely my very own set of issues. And, perhaps indicative of my own shortcomings as a man, I let those issues wheeze out in the public forum where I may come across like a whiny petulant teen. Sigh. Every individual is most definitely entitled to their votes and for their very own reasons. And, I also think the discourse at large is generally fun and the disagreements very healthy. The baseball discourse here is absolutely top notch. At the end of the day, all any of us truly want (I hope) is for these players to achieve the very best versions of themselves - in baseball and in life. 

Never, not one single time, have I ever taken one of your posts as condescending.

Carry on as you always do............please!?