Brewers Pluck a Very Brewers-y Pitcher From Cardinals in 2024 Rule 5 Draft

[Matthew Trueblood]

While the Brewers lost one pitcher they'd hoped to hold onto as organizational depth in Wednesday's Rule 5 Draft, they also nabbed a hurler who suits a lot of the things they look for and cultivate—from a division rival, no less.

Image courtesy of © Jim Rassol-Imagn Images

Connor Thomas does not throw hard, and he probably never will. A 5-foot-11 lefty who throws just 90 miles per hour with a seldom-used four-seamer, Thomas primarily leans on a slider, cutter, and sinker. He's a smallish hurler who will turn 27 years old next May, and although he showed the ability to flummox Triple-A hitters in a multi-inning swingman role for the Memphis Redbirds in 2024, he seems like a low-ceiling pickup. He's something of a free replacement for Hoby Milner, with the caveat that in order to realize any value from him, the Brewers have to shave off any rough edges and get him ready to attack big-league batters by the end of spring training.

Thomas doesn't have Milner levels of funk in his delivery, but the Brewers will have some immediate ideas for him. They can slide him over to the first-base side of the rubber to create tougher angles for lefties. His slider became more of a sweeper in 2024, with gratifying results, and the team probably views that as one unlock already checked off the to-do list. His slider was a subpar offering in 2023, with a 0.3 StuffPro according to Baseball Prospectus. (StuffPro is expressed on a scale of runs against average per 100 pitches thrown. Negative numbers mean fewer runs allowed and are thus better.) The sweeper was a much nicer -0.2 in 2024, and his PItchPro (which incorporates location) was an even better -0.6.

Next, they might further emphasize his cutter. In any case, the team surely loves that he throws all three flavors of fastball, as they're one of the two or three teams (along with, most notably, ex-Brewers GM David Stearns's Mets) who most ardently advocate using multiple heaters.

Here's a fun fact: Thomas has thrown at least one outing in front of Statcast cameras that fed public data sources every month since February, save this one. He has a bit of a rubber arm, which is highly valuable; the Brewers might like him purely on that basis. After a full season in Triple A, he's been down in the Dominican Winter League, pitching some more. Now, he'll get at least a look in a big-league spring training camp, and perhaps a stint in the majors with a new team. 

This is not a high-impact or a high-variance pick. It's straightforward depth work. As such selections go, however, it seems like a sound one. The Brewers will report to Maryvale in Feburary with one more candidate for the final lefty spot in their bullpen.

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[Joseph Zarr]

When I watched Thomas face the Sounds (on well more than one occasion - as a reliever and then as a starter later in the year) the pitch that stuck out to me the most is the change-up. That's where I would butter the bread, so to speak, as the strikeout pitch. I don't know what the peripherals or the charts say about the pitch - ie, I haven't even looked into how often he threw it as a whole or how often he even threw it vs the Sounds 😆 - but I can tell you, from my vantage point and recollection and game notes, that was the pitch that impressed the most in the times I saw him in 2024. 

[wiguy94]

20 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

When I watched Thomas face the Sounds (on well more than one occasion - as a reliever and then as a starter later in the year) the pitch that stuck out to me the most is the change-up. That's where I would butter the bread, so to speak, as the strikeout pitch. I don't know what the peripherals or the charts say about the pitch - ie, I haven't even looked into how often he threw it as a whole or how often he even threw it vs the Sounds 😆 - but I can tell you, from my vantage point and recollection and game notes, that was the pitch that impressed the most in the times I saw him in 2024. 

His changeup had a 40% whiff rate last year so it was a very good pitch for him.

[Joseph Zarr]

Just now, wiguy94 said:

His changeup had a 40% whiff rate last year so it was a very good pitch for him.

It's always encouraging when I you come away from a comment based in observation and you don't feel like a moron. Thank you for the small shot of validation. After today's goings on, I may have needed it. 😅

[jay87shot]

With the bullpen depth it would really surprise me if he makes the roster. That being said I would be surprised if the brass keeps a guy like Yoho in the minors for a month to see if this guy can stick on the big league club.

Both Thomas and and the newly acquired Wolfram had very successful Arizona Fall Leagues in the 2022 offseason.

[Profbratsch]

It seems that a certain Brent Suter had success with the Brew Crew, with a similar maximum velocity. One can only hope…