What are Fair Expectations for the Brewers' Jackson Chourio in 2025?

[Tim Muma]

'Potential' and 'expectations' are two of the most dangerous words a young athlete can hear. For the Milwaukee Brewers' Jackson Chourio, the 2025 season will be overflowing with each after a phenomenal rookie campaign. But what is fair to predict from the soon-to-be 21-year-old?
 

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

After a slow start to the 2024 campaign, Jackson Chourio lit up the Milwaukee Brewers' fanbase by posting a 117 OPS+ and becoming the youngest player in MLB history to put up a 20-home run, 20-stolen base season at the age of 20. Chourio will now look to build off his debut and provide the Brewers some additional punch that could be lacking in the lineup.

But how much can be expected from the Venezuelan outfielder, who can't yet legally drink in his home ballpark? Player development isn't always a linear journey. In fact, most pros go through significant challenges, peaks, and valleys as they learn to traverse the MLB landscape. Throw in the added weight of the pressure to be the next young stud-turned-MVP in a flash (e.g., Mike Trout), and one wonders what projections are realistic in a sport that thrives on humbling the greatest talents.

Did Chourio experience the crushing grip of pressure to open 2024? Knowing his guaranteed $82 million contract—the largest in MLB history for a player with no MLB experience—put an immediate target on his back, it's possible. Chourio owned .608 and .542 OPSes in March/April and May, respectively. Those numbers seemed nearly impossible for a player seen as a generational talent. But Chourio has a history, albeit brief, of starting slowly at each new level he reaches. His rookie year with the Brewers followed that pattern:

It also shows how amazing he was from June to the end of the season, ending up third in NL Rookie of the Year voting and the third-best rookie in Brewers history by OPS+, behind Ryan Braun and Darrell Porter. Those two players are solid examples of how early careers can take different paths.

After claiming Rookie of the Year, Braun earned his first of five straight All-Star appearances in year two, while finishing third in MVP voting. He, of course, would continue to skyrocket. He claimed the 2011 National League MVP and placed as the runner-up in 2012 (extenuating circumstances notwithstanding). That would be the ideal, incredible upward trajectory fans would love to see—and likely expect. Braun, however, was 23 years old in his rookie season. Porter, who was just 21 in his first year, is the cautionary tale of another way young athletes can rise and fall countless times. A quick comparison of the Brewers' trio of best rookies:

Interestingly, Porter was also an All-Star in his second season, but it must have been fueled by defense and a weak catching crop. Porter's offensive stats dropped significantly in year two, from a slash line of .254/.363/.457 to .241/.326/.377 (103 OPS+). It was quite a dip in performance, but not all that uncommon. He then bounced back in his third season (123 OPS+), before posting the worst offensive season of his career, hitting .208 with a 74 OPS+. From there, Porter hit his stride, though it was now with the Kansas City Royals, with OPS+ figures of 116, 123, and 142. His up-and-down first few years, followed by a peak stretch, is something to keep in mind. Most mortal beings will go through that kind of fluctuation in sports—particularly baseball.

That brings us back to Chourio and what people expect from him, whether it's the Brewers organization, so-called baseball experts, or fans. It's clear Milwaukee's leaders view Chourio as one of the Crew's top three hitters and someone who will fill the power and production void left by Willy Adames's departure. If the Brewers were worried about a drop-off, they certainly would have pushed harder to make a trade or sign a free agent to boost the offense.

As for the evaluation nerds out there, one respected projection system is a bit cool on Chourio's sophomore season. Dan Szymborski's 2025 ZIPS projections tend to lean conservative on players, but for someone like Chourio, the ZIPS output is "meh," with him sliding back in his second year in most categories:

Considering Chourio's consistent All-Star-caliber play over the last four months of 2024, these stats would be a disappointment for all involved. But perhaps it's good to keep those high hopes in check, just in case he has one of those "developing years" like Porter had. Nothing is guaranteed in this great game, no matter how incredible your talent, effort, and upside are. And keep in mind, these ZIPS projections are Chourio's 50th-percentile output. That means there's lots of room toward the ceiling (and the floor, for the pessimists out there).

When it comes to the fans, there's definitely a tsunami-sized wave of optimism, and why shouldn't there be? It's awesome to have a "kid" with so much potential. I've seen and heard everything from 30/30 season predictions to a 40-homer campaign; an All-Star starting spot; and a top-five MVP finish. It's all about perspective. Some choose to mute their excitement to protect themselves from a letdown. Others go all-in with the hype and hope that Chourio is the next Hall of Famer coming out of Milwaukee. It's a matter of preference in how you consume Brewers' baseball.

So where do you stand on what Jackson Chourio's 2025 season will look like? I believe in his talent, work ethic, and development, so I see a solid bump in overall performance. Feel free to share your predictions in the comments, too.

• AVG: .269
• OBP: .341
• SLG: .472
• HR: 28
• R: 91
• RBI: 84
• SB: 25

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[Brian]

Jackson Got off to a slow start last season, if he could get off to a good start it would be easy for him to bat .280 this season I believe.  Plus he rolled his ankle against the Reds that sure didn't help him but injuries do happen. That is a fair expectation IMO. 

[brewcrewdue80]

This season:  .315. 37HR  25 SBs  Several NL player of the Week  All Star-Silver Slugger and I'm sorry to him for under estimating his stats when he blows those away.

Edited February 14, 2025 by brewcrewdue80
Spelling

[jay87shot]

I would be crazy surprised to see any type of regression, some of how he hits might depend on where he hits in the order. My guess is that he hits 2, maybe 4, however I could see him leading off a bunch as well if Brice or Sal aren't hot early (especially against lefties like last year). I would like to see him increase his bb's and thus SB attempts.

I will go .291/.355/.885 35 2B 31HR 102 RBI 34 SB and borderline gold glove defense in the OF. I will say like 5th in MVP. Those would be crazy numbers for a 21 year old but I don't think they are crazy at all.

[Michael Trzinski]

9 hours ago, Brian said:

Jackson Got off to a slow start last season, if he could get off to a good start it would be easy for him to bat .280 this season I believe.  Plus he rolled his ankle against the Reds that sure didn't help him but injuries do happen. That is a fair expectation IMO. 

I was thinking of a BA around .280 also. And the other counting numbers seem fair. We have a young kid who *shouldn't* be expected to be a superstar in his first couple years. I would expect a 'breakout' season in 2026...and beyond.

[sveumrules]

2024 ZiPS 50%
95 OPS+ | 1.7 WAR
2024 ZiPS 80%
114 OPS+ | 3.1 WAR
2024 Real Life
117 OPS+ | 3.8 WAR

2025 ZiPS 50%
108 OPS+ | 2.6 WAR
2025 ZiPS 80%
129 OPS+ | 4.0 WAR
2025 Real Life
?????????????

I’d like to think Jackson can come in north of his 80th percentile projection again and put up an OPS+ somewhere in the 130’s with a WAR approaching five.

[Brian]

4 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I would be crazy surprised to see any type of regression, some of how he hits might depend on where he hits in the order. My guess is that he hits 2, maybe 4, however I could see him leading off a bunch as well if Brice or Sal aren't hot early (especially against lefties like last year). I would like to see him increase his bb's and thus SB attempts.

I will go .291/.355/.885 35 2B 31HR 102 RBI 34 SB and borderline gold glove defense in the OF. I will say like 5th in MVP. Those would be crazy numbers for a 21 year old but I don't think they are crazy at all.

I think Turang is the best base stealer the Brewers have and would probably be leading off to start this season. The base stealing threat sure stresses the opposing pitchers a lot right out the gate, that is if he is getting on base. 

I also liked the way Weeks managed after Murphy got suspended last year, he was a little more aggressive on the base paths than Murphy was.