NL Central Preview 2025: Chicago Cubs

[Brandon Glick]

The Milwaukee Brewers could face an actual challenge for NL Central supremacy in 2025, and it’s likely to come from Craig Counsell’s new stomping grounds.

Image courtesy of John Antonoff/Chicago Sun-Times

As the resident Chicago Cubs fan here on Brewer Fanatic (boo me all you want, I’ve seen what makes you cheer), I figured I’d graciously lend you all my knowledge about the Cubbies ahead of the 2025 season. This is part one of four in a series we’ll be doing on each of the Crew’s division rivals heading into the upcoming season. We’re starting with the Cubs because, let’s be honest, it’s probably going to be a two-horse race for the division title this season.

What’s Changed Since Last Year?

For those of you who have been living under a baseball-less rock, the Cubs have been busy this offseason. They made perhaps the biggest blockbuster trade of the winter, landing star right fielder Kyle Tucker for a package that cost them third baseman Isaac Paredes, pitcher Hayden Wesneski, and top prospect Cam Smith. They also acquired Houston Astros closer Ryan Pressly in a separate deal, and got agonizingly close to signing Alex Bregman. If anyone has trash cans around here, keep them away from Chicago.

They’ve otherwise completely remodeled their bench from last season. Gone are Patrick Wisdom, Nick Madrigal, Christian Bethancourt, and Alexander Canario (which I am still very upset about). In are Jon Berti, Justin Turner, Vidal Bruján, Carson Kelly, and Gage Workman (yes, the Cubs seriously cut a former top outfield prospect so they could keep four infielders on their bench… Jed Hoyer remains a mysterious man).

On the pitching side of things, the North Siders added Matthew Boyd, former Brewer Colin Rea, and Cody Poteet to their rotation mix. In the bullpen, they’ve secured the services of Pressly, Ryan Brasier, Caleb Thielbar, and Eli Morgan.

Looking past the addition of Tucker, the Cubs did not go big fish hunting this offseason. Instead, they opted to add huge amounts of depth after dealing with numerous injuries last year. What results is a roster that lacks star power but is probably the deepest in the division.

What Remains The Same?

The entire starting lineup returns, save for Paredes. Seiya Suzuki will handle designated hitter duties and top prospect Matt Shaw will man third base, which just goes to show how much the addition of one star player can lengthen a lineup. What has long been a punchless heart of the order now features Ian Happ, Suzuki, Tucker, Michael Busch, and Dansby Swanson. Beyond them, Gold Glove winner Nico Hoerner is still manning second base, while all-universe defender Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF) and improving power threat Miguel Amaya (C) make up the bottom of the lineup.

The top three in the Cubs’ rotation is also still intact, with co-aces Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga helming a lefty-heavy group. Jameson Taillon survived the offseason and he’ll serve as a playoff-tested No. 3. Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and top prospects Brandon Birdsell and Cade Horton comprise a high-upside group of young arms competing for one of the back-end rotation jobs.

Relievers are a volatile bunch, and most of the guys the Cubs kept around through the winter aren’t household names. Luke Little and Daniel Palencia have been hitting 100 mph in spring camp, and Porter Hodge, Tyson Miller, Keegan Thompson, and Julian Merryweather are a quartet of right-handed relievers with track records of success. Chicago really needs to hope that either Little or Thielbar has a breakout this year, because their bullpen is perilously short on lefties beyond that.

Where Do The Cubs Stand in the 2025 NL Central Hierarchy?

Look, as a Cubs fan writing on a Brewers site, this is going to sound insanely biased, but I genuinely believe that this is the first time since the 2021 trade deadline that the Brewers don’t have the best team in the division (which includes 2022, when all the geriatrics on the St. Louis Cardinals found the fountain of youth).

According to PECOTA projections, the Cubs have an 81.6% chance to win the division, followed by the Brewers at 7.9%. According to FanGraphs projections, only Kyle Tucker and Dansby Swanson are projected to be worth at least 4.0 WAR in 2025… but a whopping eight others are above 2.0 WAR, and another six are beyond the 1.0 WAR threshold in their forecast. This isn’t a top-heavy roster like the Atlanta Braves. The Cubs are going to win games thanks to their unparalleled depth and slightly above-average contributors at every spot on the roster.

Despite making marked improvements this offseason, the Cubs have also slashed their payroll by nearly $30 million since last year. Though that fact continues to draw the ire of many fans, it does mean they have a lot of financial flexibility to “go for it” at the trade deadline. They are also $26.5 million below the first luxury tax threshold, in case they want to add one of the few remaining free agents on a short-term, high-AAV deal.

Chicago can’t hold a candle to the superteam in Los Angeles, and it would probably get trampled in the bloodbath that’s forming in the NL East. But in a division where the only real competition is a Devin Williams-less Brewers squad, calling them the favorites probably isn’t a stretch.

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[tmwiese55]

Think you missed that they lost Bellinger

[Brandon Glick]

1 hour ago, tmwiese55 said:

Think you missed that they lost Bellinger

We don't speak his name anymore

[Joseph Zarr]

7 minutes ago, Brandon Glick said:

We don't speak his name anymore

Whose name? Who are you referring to? I must have missed the first remark.

[Lathund]

Over the last several years, Cubs fans spend the offseason talking about how awful the Brewers are and how much better the Cubs are. When the Cubs finish 10 games behind, they suddenly switch to claiming they saw the weaknesses of their team all along. 

This year the Cubs did get better, so perhaps this is the one time they'll actually be right. But I don't think their view that they're by far the best team in the division is right. I also find the projections rather head-scratching at time. PECOTA was off by 14 games on the Brewers last year, and it still projects this young team to be significantly worse on defense and on the bases this year. But it's super optimistic about the Cubs defense. Amaya with his -3 DRP last year is projected at +4 DRP.  While Contreras, with a +7.5 and +4.8 DRP in his last two years is projected for -0.6 DRP. Dansby Swanson at 31 is going to greatly exceed his average defense, I think defense and baserunning alone is off by a couple of wins. 

Offensively, PECOTA expects Hoerner and Happ to be much better than their career numbers. In Hoerners case to put up a 7 points higher DRC+ than he ever has in a season before. 40 year old Justin Turner is projected to improve on his last two years. William Contreras in his age 27 season is projected to be worse than his career numbers. Joey Ortiz is projected to regress a ton at 25. 

Taillon is projected to have his best season since 2019, 34 year old Matthew Boyd is projected to pitch as many innings as he has in the last 3 years combined, and do it at a level only ever matched in 2019. In fact he is projected to match his combined WARP from his 9 previous non-2019 seasons. 

Obviously, a computer is team-agnostic, it crunches numbers and doesn't know what effect it has on teams, so not like there's some actual bias there. I just look at the projections and see unusually optimistic projections for the Cubs, and when so much of their roster is expected to exceed their career numbers, the smart move is to take the under. 

The Fangraphs projections are more realistic, with the Cubs just 3 wins ahead (Though an 81 win projection for the Brewers seems really low still). But even that is largely powered by the ridiculously optimistic ZiPS which has many of the same issues I find with PECOTA. 

Now I'm also biased, but I just think the projections, by their very nature, miss out on many of the things Brewers do well; Defense, baserunning, platooning, aggressive bullpen usage, utilizing depth, in-season moves and adjustments etc. Maybe Counsell brings some of that to the Cubs, but as we saw in 2024 it's not like it was all Counsell (Not that anyone with a brain believed that), but a collaborative effort between Murph, the rest of the coaching staff, the team-facing part of the front office etc. 

If one was to make the Cubs slight favorites based on having more of a track record, then that's a reasonable take. But the general expectations that Cubs fans have, in line with PECOTA, is going to be way off. Again. As for the very end of the post; Devin Williams pitched only 22 innings in 2024 and the Brewers still had the best bullpen ERA in the NL. Losing him is not the big problem you seem to think. 

[tmwiese55]

Yes, my ballpark take is the Cubs got better.  Brewers I can accept being projected a few wins less because of the Adames loss and just some general luck/breaks last year.   So combine those two and you get to about a coin flip for the division.  Not Cubs as massive favorite as in the projections. 

I'd say generally speaking the things the computers still get wrong or don't accurately weight is bullpens. I'd assume the models kind of make bullpens out to be kind of crapshoots year to year. But certain teams like MKE and CLE consistently pump out new good bullpens every year and not coincidentally they almost always overperform their win projections. Combine that with historically norms being starters are way more important and you see how MKE gets pegged by the computers at 80ish every even though they keep winning around 90.   At some point teams like MKE/CLE need to be given credit for whatever they're doing with pitching/bullpens, I just think the computers don't have a good way to factor it yet.

[rafa]

The Cubs certainly got better for 2025.  Did they get 10 games better?  I don't think so.

  Ok, maybe the Brewers don't win 93 again but do NOT bet against it!  A healthy Christian Yelich, a better starting rotation and easy-to-see better years from Mitchell and Hoskins, not to mention Ortiz, the Brewers will be just fine.

Until the Cubs SHOW they can be a playoff team, I'm going with the Brewers, who have already PROVEN they are a playoff team with 3 division title in the last 4 years. 

The Cubs haven't made the playoffs since 2019 (please, don't include 2020 which was a joke for everyone).

[Brandon Glick]

I think all of you are right that the projections are vastly overrating the Cubs and probably slightly underrating the Brewers. The systems just seem to love the depth the Cubs have, for whatever reason.

That being said, I think the Brewers have more questions this year than they've had in a long while. Whoever beats up on the rest of the division more (between them and the Cubs) will probably come out on top.

[wallus]

12 minutes ago, Brandon Glick said:

That being said, I think the Brewers have more questions this year than they've had in a long while. Whoever beats up on the rest of the division more (between them and the Cubs) will probably come out on top.

Other than the big question mark at 3rd base, I don't see any question marks compared to last year.

Now if you want to talk about differences, check out the 2024 Brewers Opening Day Starting Rotation and compare it to 2025.