How One At-Bat Helps Explain Jackson Chourio's Current Issues with Pitch Recognition and Strike Zone Management

[Jake McKibbin]

The Brewers phenom has been chasing everything within a five-mile radius of his strike zone to start this season—something he did at times in his rookie campaign, as well. That was neatly encapsulated by one at-bat on Tuesday. Is it always going to be a problem, or can he tighten up his ball/strike recognition?

Image courtesy of © D. Ross Cameron-Imagn Images

One of the issues Jackson Chourio has may be that his hands are too talented. Chourio has swung at some ludicrous pitches so far this year, but his ability to make contact (and even do damage) on pitches outside the strike zone makes it difficult to rein in his approach.

Currently, he has five doubles and a .229 batting average on pitches outside the rulebook strike zone—a remarkable feat. All of these have come against fastballs, however, with deteriorating results against breaking and offspeed variations. His understanding of his own strike zone wasn't great in 2024, either, ranking in the 29th percentile, and not just as a result of a difficult start. Chourio had five separate periods where his rolling 50-pitch chase rate rose above 40%. In 2025, though, that's gotten even worse:

Chourio has had a rolling 50-pitch chase rate above 50% for a stretch this season, an alarming mark, and his average on the year is over that 40% mark. It's impacting his walk rate, his ability to do damage, and his overall offensive output. It may be for a variety of reasons, from overconfidence to pressing a bit amid the team's strangely bipolar start—but for now, it isn't working, and pitchers seem to have figured him out. 

The problem Chourio is facing now is one of uncertainty. He's trying to swing less, but he's taking more in-zone pitches than ever, while continuing to chase at a high rate. If the pitch starts over the middle of the plate, he's likely going to swing, regardless of the pitch type. Actually recognizing what's coming is still a work in progress for him, and one he'll no doubt conquer, as he has every other challenge.

Let's take this example from his first at-bat against Jordan Hicks Tuesday night:

Chourio swung at two of these pitches. Sinker number one started on the outside edge of the plate and honed in on the inner third, exactly where Chourio usually does damage. The second and third offerings were sweepers starting over the heart of the plate and down, before veering almost into the dirt in the left-handed batter's box. Chourio swung at the first, before laying off the second, but based on even the initial trajectory, none of Hicks's pitches could have landed in the zone. Chourio shouldn't have twitched at either offering.

Then, finally, Chourio got a sinker that started over the inner third, and his eyes lit up. Not factoring in that the pitch would either sweep down and away into his one weak zone, or swerve into his body. he swung at a pitch that may well have resulted in a hit by pitch, producing weak contact. He reached on the play, thanks to his speed and some good luck, but the process of that plate appearance was discouraging. He appears to be struggling to pick up pitch shapes early enough to make a good swing decision, more than anything, and someone with the horizontal separation of Hicks (between his electric two-seam fastball and sweeper) is perfectly situated to take advantage of that fact.

If you wonder why it's important that Chourio can work counts and force pitchers into the strike zone, and into his favorite areas of the strike zone? Well:

If you feed Chourio what he wants on the inner third or in the upper third of the strike zone, he will crush it. In fact, across the majority of the strike zone, you can almost guarantee high-quality contact from his bat, but if he can't force them into the zone, that contact is going to be rarer than the Brewers would like from their young star. His hand speed and coordination have allowed him to continue producing at a league-average level despite the lack of walks and discipline, but there are signs that pitchers are beginning to work his approach out.

Chourio has made adjustments remarkably quickly at every level of the minor leagues. He likely will do so again. If he wants to reach the ceiling he's truly capable of, then pitch recognition and the virtue of patience may be his final frontier.

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[Brian]

If Jackson wants to take it to the next level as a hitter he needs to be less aggressive thinking he can hit everything.  But that's easier said than done when you have less than 1/4 of a second to decide.  Also he is 21 and the average age a player makes it to the bigs is 24 so he is way ahead of the curve. 

[Team Canada]

If I'm a pitcher I'm just throwing him sweepers that dive out of the zone and see how many he'll go for. It's really bad right now.

[Brian]

Also Jackson has only 2 walks all season with 104 at bats. 

[Ben Lepak]

I've seen him swing at pitches that bounced in the other batters box twice in the last week.   Not sure why anyone would throw him a strike right now

[tmwiese55]

Yea I've been surprised he's been like this to start the year. I remember complementing him late last year that he stood their and took his walks when he was starting to get pitched around a bit.   Then this year he comes in swinging at everything.  Hopefully they get it honed in a bit soon 

[Brian]

2 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

Yea I've been surprised he's been like this to start the year. I remember complementing him late last year that he stood their and took his walks when he was starting to get pitched around a bit.   Then this year he comes in swinging at everything.  Hopefully they get it honed in a bit soon 

We start playing teams in our division starting Friday.  I hope it stops by then.