Last 24 World Series Teams' W/L Records Over Their Final 40 Games of Regular Season

[sveumrules]

The Brewers ended the regular season with the most wins in MLB for the 2025 season, and also single season franchise history. Truly remarkable stuff no matter what happens from here on out.

But they also ended the regular season 19 W - 21 L over their last 40 games, pretty unremarkable stuff. I was curious how that compared to recent World Series participants, so I clicked around some starting with the first Two Wild Card year in 2012...

24: LAD (27-13) NYY (22-18)
23: TEX (18-22) ARI (22-18)
22: HOU (29-11) PHI (20-20)
21: ATL (24-16) HOU (23-17)
19: WAS (27-13) HOU (29-11)
18: BOS (22-18) LAD (26-14)
17: HOU (26-14) LAD (17-23)
16: CHC (26-14) CLE (24-16)
15: KCR (21-19) NYM (24-16)
14: SFG (24-16) KCR (22-18)
13: BOS (25-15) STL (27-13)
12: SFG (27-13) DET (23-17)

The bad news is that nine of the last twelve World Series Winners had at least a .600 W% over their last 40 regular season games. Seven of the last twelve World Series Losers had at least a .575 W% over their last 40 games.

I guess the good news is that two of the three teams in the sample at .500 or below over their last 40 games are from the last two seasons, so maybe some chaos is slowly sneaking into the mix, or maybe it's just a blip.

Playoff teams with at least a .575 W% over their last 40 games of 2025 have been NYY (29-11), PHI (26-14), CLE (25-15), LAD (24-16), SEA (23-17), and CHC (23-17).

Here are the Brewers last 40 records from their other recent playoff seasons...2018 (28-12), 2019 (26-14), 2021 (21-19), 2023 (27-13), and 2024 (23-17). Outside of 2018, being "hot" heading into the playoffs ended up not meaning much for the Brewers.

Guess all that's really left to do is take these days off as a well earned reset, crank up the Ueck Signal, sacrifice a live chicken if necessary (or maybe just order a bunch of buckets from Gold Rush), then go out and make some more history. 

[Frisbee Slider]

15 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

The bad news is that nine of the last twelve World Series Winners had at least a .600 W% over their last 40 regular season games.

Thanks for putting this together! 

On one hand, the Brewers have a .600 winning percentage over their past 162 games. On the other hand, does a .600 winning percentage over the last 40 games have a causal relationship toward winning the World Series? Lots of teams play .600 baseball in September and only one wins the World Series. 

A .600 winning percentage in September is neither a necessary nor sufficient cause for winning a World Series. At the same time, it sure would be nice to be healthier and performing at a higher level.

 

[formerlybis]

Thanks for doing all that work. 

What we don't know is how much pressure was put on those other teams in the last 40 games by their nearest pursuers. The Brewers had very little this year - they didn't *need* to do more. Maybe those previous playoff years they did, IIRC.

[GreatNWwi]

15 hours ago, sveumrules said:

 

Playoff teams with at least a .575 W% over their last 40 games of 2025 have been NYY (29-11), PHI (26-14), CLE (25-15), LAD (24-16), SEA (23-17), and CHC (23-17).

 

Every one of these teams needed to play that well or better over that stretch to realistically achieve there next goal with the possible exception of CHC.  CHC would have had to perform much better to catch MIL.

[sveumrules]

1 hour ago, GreatNWwi said:

Every one of these teams needed to play that well or better over that stretch to realistically achieve there next goal with the possible exception of CHC.  CHC would have had to perform much better to catch MIL.

For sure. I guess we’ll see if needing that sense of urgency down the stretch carries over to better playoff results for some of those teams.

All of the Brewers playoff teams since 2021 have had things wrapped up from a Divisional standpoint, not much to play for over the last couple weeks, and have subsequently come out flat in the playoffs.

Hopefully this year’s team can flip that script.

[kestrel79]

Great data love reading this stuff!

[Turning2]

Interesting for what it's worth. Numbers and data paint a picture but not a detailed picture. On the surface, it looks like the Brewers are behind. But it's impossible to factor in the injuries that all the previous teams were dealing with comparably. It's also impossible to quantify how impactful those injuries were (injuries to star players, injuries to average players having career years etc. No way to measure the pennant chase pressure each team was wrestling with. All that aside, the Brewers indisputably sputter the last month, primarily because the bats nearly flat lined. It was super important to get the win yesterday, to enter the playoffs feeling good about their on the field performance rather than all the mania of "best record in baseball, most franchise wins" etc.