Extension Candidates

[BrewerFan]

On 11/1/2025 at 11:39 AM, Jopal78 said:

 

You don’t have to take my word for it; here’s the exact quote from May 17, 2024 as reported to Todd Rosiak regarding an extension with Milwaukee.

“I’m not interested in that. I’m here playing my game, and I know my time is going to come”.

Like I said earlier, every player will say they “want to stay”, or “love the city,” “feels like home” etc. It’s good PR to do so.  
 

So if you want to believe the platitudes go ahead, but money talks always. 

This is why I post the link rather than taking one sentence out of a long article and provide zero context.

As I remember it, he was talking about playing everyday and getting himself ready and trying to be the best, then after saying there hadn't been any conversations about a contract extension from the Brewers side(similar to past big names like Burnes at that point) he said

"I'm not interested in that, I'm here playing my game, and I know my time is going to come."

Not "interested in that," directly after they say they've(the Brewers) have made no offers or talks with him reads to ME like he's not interested in TALKING about it. Like he's interested in playing right now and worrying about right NOW.

Especially when you consider he said both before that AND after that... pretty strongly, that he'd like to spend his entire career in Milwaukee. 

 

It also feels like it's easier to say... as a Brewers fan, 'well, what could we do? He didn't want to sign anyway,' when... he's been pretty public about it when... you don't make the effort to approach you with any offer.

 

[BrewerFan]

On 11/1/2025 at 11:47 AM, duewizard said:

The comparison is with regards to the major injury that ended the guy's career and cost the nationals hundreds of millions. 

Burnes got 6-10-15 so that's what I assumed.

Sure every contract is a gamble. But every gamble has different odds. I think offering Made the extension is more worth it than Miz. Its not a choice between the two I agree and I never said it was.

(This is a long post... and yes, many of mine are, but this one in particular because I feel pretty strongly about the risk/reward... which I get to at the end in the bolded part).

Well... again, yes, I get injury is an issue... but by evoking Strasburg, you're adding... ~150M more on a contract for a pitcher with 10-years on his arm. So I thought that was a really bad comparison. 

-Very rare injury for a pitcher
-Through his late 30s
-Paying for what he's already done, not for what you're projecting him to do

How about a Corey Kluber? He signed a 5 year extension with two TOs. AT the time it was 35M with 2 TOs. He went on to win a Cy Young, was a dominant pitcher... until the TO came up and he got hurt at the... but because he was still signed below market value, the Guardians got Emanuel Clause out of trading him. Incidentally, they signed him to a pre-arbitration deal as well...after serving a season long suspension in 2020 for PEDs and... that contract has also provided enormous surplus value as well. 

Now contracts are getting bigger so Misiorowski's will also get bigger(the Brewers revenue is also growing quite a bit with the 48% revenue share they get from MOST teams local revenues and TV deals, though there's some shady accounting and still major financial discrepancies... but the latter part is why it makes sense. If he's an ace and gets within 3 years of the Free Agent market, we'll be having the same conversation we're having about a catcher which is really... "we won't be able to afford him anyway," dressed up as "he doesn't want to sign a contract extension. 

 

As for the 50M, if you're assuming Misiorowski is a super 2... and I doubt he will, but he'll be going into 4 years of arbitration, not 3, he'll already have been named to an All-Star game and just as of now, he was one of the most overpowering pitchers in the post-season. In a year in which most of us didn't even think he would or should get called up. He pretty much held the pitching staff together and gave the Brewers a punchers chance vs the Dodgers after helping them finish the Cubs... it's not his fault we didn't decide to actually throw any punches vs the Dodgers. 

 

On 11/1/2025 at 11:47 AM, duewizard said:

Sure every contract is a gamble. But every gamble has different odds. I think offering Made the extension is more worth it than Miz. Its not a choice between the two I agree and I never said it was.

Ok, I guess when you said "I'd rather sign Made/Pena/Dinges," it read to me like we had to pick.

But fine, we don't need to pick. I agree. I think when you have talent like Chourio, Made, Misiorowski, you sign as many of them as you can to pre-arbitration deals. 

It's not going to work out a lot of time, but signing him from 24-31 gives you his MOST valuable 8-year period and you're paying for the right to pick up the final two years at 30 and 31. It also enhances his value in a trade.

 

I don't think TJ is a risk that is a big enough deterrent. In fact, I'd argue the risk of TJ is just as good of a reason to sign him as not. 
Pitchers are not only coming back from TJ at an extremely high rate. A 96% return to play rate for pitchers in their 20s and they're actually coming back and pitching longer and they're often adding velocity(though I don't have a number to quantify that). 
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6664469/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

 

The other risk a shoulder surgery-That's a more significant risk. Though, even with the Capsule injury Woodruff had, players are coming back more and more from that. Ashby and Woodruff just in Milwaukee. 

The Thoracic outlet Surgery is an extreme example and pretty rare for pitchers in their prime.

 

So sure, the INJURY that happened to Strasburg is a worse case scenario... but you have to see how you're REALLY limiting that risk by signing him his for years ~24-31 vs the 7 years Strasburg signed up for at 30 for his 31-37 seasons.

 

Misiorowski has the best pure stuff of ANY player to don a Brewers Jersey. I think an 8/100M deal with 2TO is WELL worth it. 
Most realistically, I'd assume he'd want a 6 year deal with the 2 TOs, but those team options are extremely valuable. 

 

-----

Ultimately, I'm looking as Jackson Chourio-8 more years, Jesus Made-If he keeps developing, he'll be a part of the team Misiorowski's 3rd season in the league. Potentially the same with Pena, Adamczewski, Dinges, Adams, Wilken, Quero, Lara, Cooper Pratt, Fischer, Burke and then on the pitching side, Letson, Knoth, Hardin, whomever else we've developed by then. Maybe Alexander Mercedes the 2026 IFA who's already throwing 92-94 is a top 10 prospect in Baseball and a 22-23 year old phenom himself by then(that's just to make a point, but it's all about keeping this window with this group of players that I'M of the opinion... make up a once in a lifetime core and keeping them together for 5-6 years.

Give me 4 guys who the franchise has conviction in, Jackson Chourio, Jesus Made, Luis Pena and Jacob Misiorowski... try and sign ALL FOUR of them to pre-arbitration contracts and if the worst happens and one of those players is a bust(or specific to this conversation has an injury that costs him his career, then you're getting your money back from his insurance policy. But if you're right, you've created so much excess value and you've kept a group of guys who could be not just stars, but MVP and CY Young players around a core of other really good hitters, this is your best shot to combat the Dodgers just going out and signing an extra ace or two in free agency and they should be about the same as the AAV of Yamamoto and Blake Snell at MOST in any one season. 

 

 

[Jopal78]

On 11/2/2025 at 1:05 AM, BrewerFan said:

This is why I post the link rather than taking one sentence out of a long article and provide zero context.

As I remember it, he was talking about playing everyday and getting himself ready and trying to be the best, then after saying there hadn't been any conversations about a contract extension from the Brewers side(similar to past big names like Burnes at that point) he said

"I'm not interested in that, I'm here playing my game, and I know my time is going to come."

Not "interested in that," directly after they say they've(the Brewers) have made no offers or talks with him reads to ME like he's not interested in TALKING about it. Like he's interested in playing right now and worrying about right NOW.

Especially when you consider he said both before that AND after that... pretty strongly, that he'd like to spend his entire career in Milwaukee. 

 

It also feels like it's easier to say... as a Brewers fan, 'well, what could we do? He didn't want to sign anyway,' when... he's been pretty public about it when... you don't make the effort to approach you with any offer.

 

Now, given Danny Jansen WOULD be the 7th highest paid catcher(if we were to pick up his 12M TO for 2026)... and the top paid going into next year is Perez at 20.5M, an extension that pays him at the top of the market would be~6 for 130. Save for outliers like Mauer or Posey, catchers generally don't get long contracts as... they're a big like RBs and tend to drop off around 30. 

'26-12M
'27-18M
'28-25M
'29-25M
'30-25M
'31-25M
 

He'd start the deal at 28 and end it at '34... and I think it's about a lock he'd sign that contract.
I don't think the Brewers offer that. I think that's on the high end... and that pays him almost FA type money... but it at least does so for a relatively shorter period of time.

Cal Raleigh would be a... VERY similar comp. He signed this past year for 6/105 and had been a better power hitter, hadn't hit for as good of an average, been a better defender and had the underlying metrics that were... at least equal with Contreras. 
 

I would guess we'd want a deal more like the one Raleigh got. 
In his case, he got a 10M signing bonus... which we should be able to afford after this year. 
'26-2M(+10 SB)
'27-18M
'28-20M
'29-20M
'30-20M
'31-20M

6/110

Though I suspect the Brewers are more weary of signing a catcher for 6 years given Dinges coming up behind Quero, that'd be a pretty reasonable deal for both sides.

You'd also overlap one year with Yelich before Contreras starts the "extension" years. 

 

I'd put the odds against against Turang, Contreras or Misiorowski signing an extension(Frelick seems most likely).

But I don't think it's because anyone is just unwilling to talk about an extension. 

I STRONGLY disagree with this. I think it's... a huge priority to players. 

They also obviously care about the money... but they OFTEN prefer to stay where they are if it's a good situation and before they get to a place, they have destinations they want to go. Do you believe Adames was giving us "Platitudes," when he articulated a desire to stay? I don't. I absolutely believed him. I also believed Woodruff. 

He showed up to Miller Park this year like it was a homecoming. I have no doubt Adames would have prefered to stay and would have taken less money to do so. But it's a balance. Not 70M less. That'd be stupid.

If we offered 7 years and 150... I think he may have stayed.

I don't think Contreras is offering "Platitudes." You spend a... what, 250-260 days with players, they become more than just co-workers. Especially in Baseball. 

Corbin Burnes took a lot less money to pitch in Arizona because it was close to his home.

The Brewers have a good clubhouse, Contreras is the leader in the clubhouse along with the likes of Yelich, Peralta, Woodruff(who did take less to come back to Milwaukee).

 

Contreras is engaged(I believe, maybe married) to Willy Adames Sister. These guys aren't players on a video game that you move around. They build a life somewhere. They also have 2nd houses, but they're putting their kids in schools, they build lives somewhere. 

 

You don't think they "give a crap" where they play?

If that was true... ever Japanese star wouldn't end up with the Dodgers, Freddy Freeman wouldn't have gotten so emotional when he misplayed his hand with the Braves(though that's worked out fine, but still... a clear preference). 

Corbin Burnes wouldn't have taken less money.

 

Ohtani would be in Toronto. Hell, they were the ones who made the contract offer that he currently signed. Ohtani just gave the Angels, Dodgers a chance to move because... in part, he didn't want to "uproot his life in Los Angels." 

We all care about where we work, being comfortable with those around us.  

Don’t be a cheapskate “as I remember it” from an article written 18 months ago. Go read the actual article. It’s crystal clear what he means.
 

Anyways, your mid is made up and  infallible, so no point in discussing it further. 

[BrewerFan]

8 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Don’t be a cheapskate “as I remember it” from an article written 18 months ago. Go read the actual article. It’s crystal clear what he means.
 

Anyways, your mid is made up and  infallible, so no point in discussing it further. 

What does that even mean, "don't be a cheapskate?" 

LOL...how does that even play into the conversation?

And I know exactly what you're talking about. The IMMEDIATE paragraph before Contreras comments are about how the Brewers have made... 0 offers. Haven't started discussions.

 

But sure, it's "crystal clear" what he "mean." Other times like when he explicitly states he's open to, then... you really gotta read in between the lines, right? 

[duewizard]

On 11/2/2025 at 3:57 AM, BrewerFan said:

(This is a long post... and yes, many of mine are, but this one in particular because I feel pretty strongly about the risk/reward... which I get to at the end in the bolded part).

Well... again, yes, I get injury is an issue... but by evoking Strasburg, you're adding... ~150M more on a contract for a pitcher with 10-years on his arm. So I thought that was a really bad comparison. 

-Very rare injury for a pitcher
-Through his late 30s
-Paying for what he's already done, not for what you're projecting him to do

How about a Corey Kluber? He signed a 5 year extension with two TOs. AT the time it was 35M with 2 TOs. He went on to win a Cy Young, was a dominant pitcher... until the TO came up and he got hurt at the... but because he was still signed below market value, the Guardians got Emanuel Clause out of trading him. Incidentally, they signed him to a pre-arbitration deal as well...after serving a season long suspension in 2020 for PEDs and... that contract has also provided enormous surplus value as well. 

Now contracts are getting bigger so Misiorowski's will also get bigger(the Brewers revenue is also growing quite a bit with the 48% revenue share they get from MOST teams local revenues and TV deals, though there's some shady accounting and still major financial discrepancies... but the latter part is why it makes sense. If he's an ace and gets within 3 years of the Free Agent market, we'll be having the same conversation we're having about a catcher which is really... "we won't be able to afford him anyway," dressed up as "he doesn't want to sign a contract extension. 

 

As for the 50M, if you're assuming Misiorowski is a super 2... and I doubt he will, but he'll be going into 4 years of arbitration, not 3, he'll already have been named to an All-Star game and just as of now, he was one of the most overpowering pitchers in the post-season. In a year in which most of us didn't even think he would or should get called up. He pretty much held the pitching staff together and gave the Brewers a punchers chance vs the Dodgers after helping them finish the Cubs... it's not his fault we didn't decide to actually throw any punches vs the Dodgers. 

 

Ok, I guess when you said "I'd rather sign Made/Pena/Dinges," it read to me like we had to pick.

But fine, we don't need to pick. I agree. I think when you have talent like Chourio, Made, Misiorowski, you sign as many of them as you can to pre-arbitration deals. 

It's not going to work out a lot of time, but signing him from 24-31 gives you his MOST valuable 8-year period and you're paying for the right to pick up the final two years at 30 and 31. It also enhances his value in a trade.

 

I don't think TJ is a risk that is a big enough deterrent. In fact, I'd argue the risk of TJ is just as good of a reason to sign him as not. 
Pitchers are not only coming back from TJ at an extremely high rate. A 96% return to play rate for pitchers in their 20s and they're actually coming back and pitching longer and they're often adding velocity(though I don't have a number to quantify that). 
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC6664469/?utm_source=chatgpt.com

 

The other risk a shoulder surgery-That's a more significant risk. Though, even with the Capsule injury Woodruff had, players are coming back more and more from that. Ashby and Woodruff just in Milwaukee. 

The Thoracic outlet Surgery is an extreme example and pretty rare for pitchers in their prime.

 

So sure, the INJURY that happened to Strasburg is a worse case scenario... but you have to see how you're REALLY limiting that risk by signing him his for years ~24-31 vs the 7 years Strasburg signed up for at 30 for his 31-37 seasons.

 

Misiorowski has the best pure stuff of ANY player to don a Brewers Jersey. I think an 8/100M deal with 2TO is WELL worth it. 
Most realistically, I'd assume he'd want a 6 year deal with the 2 TOs, but those team options are extremely valuable. 

 

-----

Ultimately, I'm looking as Jackson Chourio-8 more years, Jesus Made-If he keeps developing, he'll be a part of the team Misiorowski's 3rd season in the league. Potentially the same with Pena, Adamczewski, Dinges, Adams, Wilken, Quero, Lara, Cooper Pratt, Fischer, Burke and then on the pitching side, Letson, Knoth, Hardin, whomever else we've developed by then. Maybe Alexander Mercedes the 2026 IFA who's already throwing 92-94 is a top 10 prospect in Baseball and a 22-23 year old phenom himself by then(that's just to make a point, but it's all about keeping this window with this group of players that I'M of the opinion... make up a once in a lifetime core and keeping them together for 5-6 years.

Give me 4 guys who the franchise has conviction in, Jackson Chourio, Jesus Made, Luis Pena and Jacob Misiorowski... try and sign ALL FOUR of them to pre-arbitration contracts and if the worst happens and one of those players is a bust(or specific to this conversation has an injury that costs him his career, then you're getting your money back from his insurance policy. But if you're right, you've created so much excess value and you've kept a group of guys who could be not just stars, but MVP and CY Young players around a core of other really good hitters, this is your best shot to combat the Dodgers just going out and signing an extra ace or two in free agency and they should be about the same as the AAV of Yamamoto and Blake Snell at MOST in any one season. 

 

 

Yeah Strasbourg is the worst case scenario 100% but it is a possibility. The point Im making is that injuries concern me.

Also not assuming super 2 it may or may not be a factor we'll see.

Trust me I get your point. And Miz really is exceptional. Its just on principle I am against making ANY long term (3+ years) commitment to ANY pitcher. 

Made, Peña, Dinges, etc I 100% agree we need to sign. Pitchers scare me.

But agree to disagree.

Also I feel I need to apologise. I genuinely thought you were willfully misunderstanding tha Strasbourg example. I should have been clearer

[BrewerFan]

7 hours ago, duewizard said:

Yeah Strasbourg is the worst case scenario 100% but it is a possibility. The point Im making is that injuries concern me.

Also not assuming super 2 it may or may not be a factor we'll see.

Trust me I get your point. And Miz really is exceptional. Its just on principle I am against making ANY long term (3+ years) commitment to ANY pitcher. 

Made, Peña, Dinges, etc I 100% agree we need to sign. Pitchers scare me.

But agree to disagree.

Also I feel I need to apologise. I genuinely thought you were willfully misunderstanding tha Strasbourg example. I should have been clearer

We're all good! Sports debate is boring is everyone is in agreement...

 

Also, I hadn't actually looked, but Mis should be easily safe from Super2. June 12th, I think they gave themselves enough of a buffer. 

If the Brewers desires to extend Misiorowski were true, that would help lower the number(the post-season performance may just push it back up).

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

We're all good! Sports debate is boring is everyone is in agreement...

 

Also, I hadn't actually looked, but Mis should be easily safe from Super2. June 12th, I think they gave themselves enough of a buffer. 

If the Brewers desires to extend Misiorowski were true, that would help lower the number(the post-season performance may just push it back up).

Yeah Misiorowski is definitely safe. He has .109 service time. The lowest the Super 2 cutoff has been since 2009 is 2.116 so it would need to be a crazy outlier low cutoff for him to hit Super 2.