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Posted
Kinda crazy to think that it's already been ten seasons since Stearns/Arnold took over the front office and transformed the organization. I was clicking around the Brewers leaderboards over this last decade and noticed that there were six players they acquired via trade that accounted for just shy of 100 combined wins.
 
As is, the Brewers 836 Wins since 2016 are 5th in MLB. Take away their (spoiler alert) 87 Net Wins from big trades and they would drop down to 749 Wins, the same as the Twins in 16th place.
 
That seemed like an awful lot, so it got me curious how all the other organizations did when it came to trading for and trading away individual players that ended up with at least 10.0 WAR (using runs allowed WAR for the pitchers) over the last decade. Turns out there were 76 such traded players accounting for 1,171.2 WAR in total. Full team results below with the format being Player (WAR acquired | trading team).
 
But first, some quick observations...
 
*Only two teams - The Yankees & Blue Jays - did not trade away a single ten win player. Maybe the old saying about Yankees prospects being overrated has some truth to it.
 
*Only one team - The Orioles - did not trade for a single player that went on to post ten wins for them this decade.
 
*The Rays have a reputation as one of the most deft organizations when it comes to the trade market, but they sent out twice as many ten WAR players as they acquired.
 
MIL (6 in for 99.7 WAR): Christian Yelich (28.0 | MIA), Freddy Peralta (19.3 | SEA), Willy Adames (15.8 | TBR), William Contreras (15.0 | ATL), Josh Hader (11.1 | HOU), Chase Anderson (10.5 | ARI)
OUT (1 for 12.8 WAR) | NET (+86.9 WAR | 1st)
 
CLE (7 in for 101.9 WAR): Corey Kluber (20.6 | SDP), Carlos Carrasco (15.9 | PHI), Mike Clevinger (15.1 | LAA), Trevor Bauer (14.6 | ARI), Andres Gimenez (13.4 | NYM), Carlos Santana (12.3 | LAD), Emmanuel Clase (10.0 | TEX)
OUT (2 for 47.2 WAR) | NET (+54.7 WAR | 2nd)
 
HOU (3 for 64.7 WAR): Justin Verlander (27.4 | DET), Yordan Alvarez (23.7 | LAD), Gerrit Cole (13.6 | PIT)
OUT (2 for 22.1 WAR) | NET (+42.6 WAR | 3rd)
 
TOR (3 for 33.6 WAR): Josh Donaldson (12.2 | ATH), Teoscar Hernandez (11.0 | HOU), Jose Berrios (10.4 | MIN)
OUT (0 for 0.0 WAR) | NET (+33.6 WAR | 4th)
 
SDP (6 in for 90.8 WAR): Fernando Tatis Jr. (26.5 | CHW), Jake Cronenworth (15.0 | TBR), Joe Musgrove (13.5 | PIT), Wil Myers (12.7 | TBR), Blake Snell (12.0 | TBR), Yu Darvish (11.1 | CHC)
OUT (3 for 59.9 WAR) | NET (+30.9 WAR | 5th)
 
NYY (2 for 26.9 WAR): Gleyber Torres (15.9 | CHC), Giancarlo Stanton (11.0 | MIA)
OUT (0 for 0.0 WAR) | NET (+26.9 WAR | 6th)
 
LAD (3 for 60.4 WAR): Mookie Betts (28.0 | BOS), Chris Taylor (16.9 | SEA), Yasmani Grandal (15.5 | SDP)
OUT (2 for 36.0 WAR) | NET (+24.4 WAR | 7th)
 
TEX (3 for 32.2 WAR): Adolis Garcia (11.1 | STL), Nathaniel Lowe (10.8 | TBR), Elvis Andrus (10.3 | ATL)
OUT (1 for 10.0 WAR) | NET (+22.2 WAR | 8th)
 
CIN (2 for 33.2 WAR): Luis Castillo (17.3 | MIA), Eugenio Suarez (15.9 | DET)
OUT (2 for 21.8 WAR) | NET (+11.4 WAR | 9th)
 
WAS (1 for 23.8 WAR): Trea Turner (23.8 | SDP)
OUT (1 for 14.5 WAR) | NET (+9.3 WAR | 10th)
 
COL (2 for 26.9 WAR): German Marquez (16.7 | TBR), DJ LeMahieu (10.2 | CHC)
OUT (1 for 18.3 WAR) | NET (+8.6 WAR | 11th)
 
ATH (3 for 35.9 WAR): Marcus Semien (13.6 | CHW), Sean Manaea (12.2 | KCR), Chris Bassitt (10.1 | CHW)
OUT (2 for 29.2 WAR) | NET (+6.7 WAR | 12th)
 
NYM (1 for 29.8 WAR): Francsico Lindor (29.8 | CLE)
OUT (2 for 23.4 WAR) | NET (+6.4 WAR | 13th)
 
PHI (2 for 38.9 WAR): JT Realmuto (25.1 | MIA), Christopher Sanchez (13.8 | TBR)
OUT (2 for 33.0 WAR) | NET (+5.9 WAR | 14th)
 
ATL (4 for 55.8 WAR): Matt Olson (17.0 | ATH), Dansby Swanson (16.1 | ARI), Chris Sale (11.3 | BOS), Ender Inciarte (11.4 | ARI)
OUT (4 for 52.6 WAR) | NET (+3.2 WAR | 15th)
 
MIN (1 for 11.6 WAR): Joe Ryan (11.6 | TBR)
OUT (1 for 10.4 WAR) | NET (+1.2 WAR | 16th)
 
LAA (1 for 14.8 WAR): Andrelton Simmons (14.8 | ATL)
OUT (1 for 15.1 WAR) | NET (-0.3 WAR | 17th)
 
KCR (1 for 10.8 WAR): Brad Keller (10.8 | CIN)
OUT (1 for 12.2 WAR) | NET (-1.4 WAR | 18th)
 
SFG (1 for 12.4 WAR): Mike Yastrzemski (12.4 | BAL)
OUT (1 for 18.6 WAR) | NET (-6.2 WAR | 19th)
 
ARI (4 in for 74.7 WAR): Ketel Marte (30.4 | SEA), Zac Gallen (21.8 | MIA), Nick Ahmed (12.5 | ATL), Robbie Ray (10.0 | DET)
OUT (6 for 85.0 WAR) | NET (-10.3 WAR | 20th)
 
STL (2 for 39.6 WAR): Paul Goldschmidt (21.3 | ARI), Nolan Arenado (18.3 | COL) 
OUT (4 for 53.9 WAR) | NET (-14.3 WAR | 21st)
 
SEA (4 for 49.4 WAR): JP Crawford (17.1 | PHI), Mitch Haniger (11.1 | ARI), Luis Castillo (11.0 | CIN), Marco Gonzales (10.2 | STL)
OUT (3 for 66.6 WAR) | NET (-17.2 WAR | 22nd)
 
PIT (1 for 18.6 WAR): Bryan Reynolds (18.6 | SFG)
OUT (3 for 37.7 WAR) | NET (-19.1 WAR | 23rd)
 
BAL (0 for 0.0 WAR): Nobody
OUT (2 for 25.7 WAR) | NET (-25.7 WAR | 24th)
 
CHW (3 for 40.0 WAR): Lucas Giolito (14.5 | WAS), Yoan Moncada (14.0 | BOS), Dylan Cease (11.5 | CHC)
OUT (4 for 69.0 WAR) | NET (-29.0 WAR | 25th)
 
BOS (3 for 42.6 WAR): Chris Sale (18.8 | CHW), Eduardo Rodriguez (13.3 | BAL), Rick Porcello (10.5 | DET)
OUT (4 for 72.1 WAR) | NET (-29.5 WAR | 26th)
 
CHC (1 for 18.8 WAR): Anthony Rizzo (18.8 | BOS)
OUT (4 for 48.7 WAR) | NET (-29.9 WAR | 27th)
 
DET (1 for 10.0 WAR): Michael Fulmer (10.0 | NYM)
OUT (4 for 63.8 WAR) | NET (-53.8 WAR | 28th)

TBR (4 for 52.3 WAR): Yandy Diaz (17.4 | CLE), Drew Rasmussen (12.8 | MIL), Randy Arozarena (11.5 | STL), Tyler Glasnow (10.6 | PIT)
OUT (8 for 108.3 WAR) | NET (-56.0 WAR | 29th)
 
MIA (1 for 21.1 WAR): Sandy Alcantara (21.1 | STL)
OUT (5 for 103.3 WAR) | NET (-82.2 WAR | 30th)
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Posted
10 hours ago, BlazingGunz said:

Who was the one that got away from us?

Drew Rasmussen (12.8 rWAR) to Tampa Bay in the Adames deal.

Believe the next highest after that are guys like Trent Grisham (8.3 WAR with SDP), Reese Olson (5.2 rWAR with DET) and Corbin Burnes (4.5 rWAR with BAL). 

But if we dip below the ten win threshold that introduces a whole other supporting cast of acquired via trade Brewers like Zach Davies (9.0), Manny Pina (7.5), Travis Shaw (6.9), Adrian Houser (5.6), Luis Urias (4.9), Omar Narvaez (4.6), Jonathan Villar (4.6), Joey Ortiz (4.5), Keon Broxton (4.4), Corey Kenbel (4.2), Domingo Santana (4.2), Eric Lauer (3.9), Quinn Priester (3.6), Mike Moustakas (3.4), Trevor Megill (3.0), Gio Gonzalez (2.9), Chad Patrick (2.6), Caleb Durbin (2.6), Victor Caratini (2.6), Bryan Hudson (2.6), Hunter Renfroe (2.4), Joel Payamps (2.2), Jordan Lyles (2.0) and Andrew Vaughn (1.9 WAR) between two and nine wins.

Even subtracting out the 18.0 combined WAR from Grisham, Olson, Burnes that still comes out like another 78.1 WAR ahead for the Brewers. Truly insane stuff.

Start dipping down further into the margins and there are guys like Bowden Francis (2.4 rWAR with TOR), JP Feyereisen (2.1 rWAR with TBR), Josh Hader (1.8 rWAR with SDP), Mauricio Dubon (1.6 WAR with SFG), David Hamilton (1.5 WAR with BOS), David Fry (1.0 WAR with CLE), Jonathan Lucroy (0.8 WAR with TEX) and others I'm not recalling that eat away at the gains by another dozen or so wins, but start dipping that low and the Brewers have guys like Aaron Civale (1.7 rWAR), Aaron Hill (1.5 WAR), Elvis Peguero (1.4 rWAR), Neil Walker (1.0 WAR), Drew Pomeranz (0.9 rWAR), Mark Canha (0.9 WAR), Jake Bauers (0.9 WAR), Brett Phillips (0.8 WAR), Carlos Santana (0.7 WAR) and Robert Gasser (0.7 rWAR) to mostly even out the ledger.

Between the 86.9 net WAR from up top and the 78.1 net WAR from this post before dipping into the margins it's probably pretty safe to say the Brewers have come out ahead by somewhere in the neighborhood of 160 plus wins over the last decade on the trade market. Boggles the mind.

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Posted

I’m sure I’m not the only one surprised to see Chase Anderson almost equal to Hader.

I know he had a few good seasons for us but I wouldn’t have guessed him to be on that list.

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Posted
12 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

I’m sure I’m not the only one surprised to see Chase Anderson almost equal to Hader.

I know he had a few good seasons for us but I wouldn’t have guessed him to be on that list.

Yeah, Chase Anderson vs Josh Hader is a great comparison for how hard it is to compare value between the quantity provided by mid to back end starters (more integral during the regular season) versus the lower quantity but all high stakes IP thrown by leverage relievers (which are then magnified in importance during the postseason).

Hader threw 316 IP with a 58 ERA- | 63 FIP- for the Brewers. The old saying is that WAR undervalues relievers, so I would say for Josh a better representation of his value during that time would be his +14.22 Win Probability Added which credits him with a few extra wins over his 11.1 runs allowed WAR (which credits him with another couple wins over his 9.4 FIP based WAR).

Anderson was durable (at least 25 starts all four years) but didn't work deep (topped out at 158 IP). His peripherals (93 K+ | 95 BB+ | 123 HR+ for a 111 FIP-) were downright ugly so he was only worth 5.0 FIP based WAR over his 590 IP with the Brewers. This probably lines up with most peoples memory of Anderson as an average at best kind of pitcher.

But Chase was also one of the OG test cases for the Brewers FIP beating magic. They rode his fly ball heavy arsenal for a 126 FB+ (7th of 115 pitchers min. 400 IP from 2016-19) that helped him limit hits with a 95 AVG+ (34th) and strand runners with a 107 LOB+ (7th).

Put it altogether and his 3.83 ERA (90 ERA-) was waaay down below his 4.70 FIP so that shook out to 10.5 runs allowed WAR for Chase over those four years, or an extra 5.5 wins over what his peripherals would imply.

He wasn't a trade acquisition (picked up off waivers) but Junior Guerra was kinda the same story, just not quite as consistent as Anderson was...

Guerra 2016-19 (416 IP)
97 K+ | 117 BB+ | 106 HR+ (unimpressive peripherals)
111 FB+ | 92 AVG+ | 104 LOB+ (lotsa fly balls / limit hits / strand runners)
89 ERA- | 107 FIP-
3.78 ERA | 4.53 FIP (beat that FIP)
6.3 rWAR | 3.3 fWAR (collect those extra wins)

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Posted
On 1/4/2026 at 8:36 AM, sveumrules said:

Drew Rasmussen (12.8 rWAR) to Tampa Bay in the Adames deal.

Believe the next highest after that are guys like Trent Grisham (8.3 WAR with SDP), Reese Olson (5.2 rWAR with DET) and Corbin Burnes (4.5 rWAR with BAL). 

But if we dip below the ten win threshold that introduces a whole other supporting cast of acquired via trade Brewers like Zach Davies (9.0), Manny Pina (7.5), Travis Shaw (6.9), Adrian Houser (5.6), Luis Urias (4.9), Omar Narvaez (4.6), Jonathan Villar (4.6), Joey Ortiz (4.5), Keon Broxton (4.4), Corey Kenbel (4.2), Domingo Santana (4.2), Eric Lauer (3.9), Quinn Priester (3.6), Mike Moustakas (3.4), Trevor Megill (3.0), Gio Gonzalez (2.9), Chad Patrick (2.6), Caleb Durbin (2.6), Victor Caratini (2.6), Bryan Hudson (2.6), Hunter Renfroe (2.4), Joel Payamps (2.2), Jordan Lyles (2.0) and Andrew Vaughn (1.9 WAR) between two and nine wins.

Even subtracting out the 18.0 combined WAR from Grisham, Olson, Burnes that still comes out like another 78.1 WAR ahead for the Brewers. Truly insane stuff.

Start dipping down further into the margins and there are guys like Bowden Francis (2.4 rWAR with TOR), JP Feyereisen (2.1 rWAR with TBR), Josh Hader (1.8 rWAR with SDP), Mauricio Dubon (1.6 WAR with SFG), David Hamilton (1.5 WAR with BOS), David Fry (1.0 WAR with CLE), Jonathan Lucroy (0.8 WAR with TEX) and others I'm not recalling that eat away at the gains by another dozen or so wins, but start dipping that low and the Brewers have guys like Aaron Civale (1.7 rWAR), Aaron Hill (1.5 WAR), Elvis Peguero (1.4 rWAR), Neil Walker (1.0 WAR), Drew Pomeranz (0.9 rWAR), Mark Canha (0.9 WAR), Jake Bauers (0.9 WAR), Brett Phillips (0.8 WAR), Carlos Santana (0.7 WAR) and Robert Gasser (0.7 rWAR) to mostly even out the ledger.

Between the 86.9 net WAR from up top and the 78.1 net WAR from this post before dipping into the margins it's probably pretty safe to say the Brewers have come out ahead by somewhere in the neighborhood of 160 plus wins over the last decade on the trade market. Boggles the mind.

Great numbers!

I guess I'm confused why the ones we traded away are not calculated for all years combined after leaving the Crew, instead of only for one team. It seems Hader, Grisham, Zach Davies, and Burnes may all be a bit higher ... as an example. I would think that should count, no? 

Still the Crew well ahead in that trade +/- with excellent numbers. 

Posted
10 hours ago, MattK said:

I guess I'm confused why the ones we traded away are not calculated for all years combined after leaving the Crew, instead of only for one team. It seems Hader, Grisham, Zach Davies, and Burnes may all be a bit higher ... as an example. I would think that should count, no? 

My line of thinking for guys like Hader and Burnes is that the Brewers traded away that last year, year and a half of team control. Whatever WAR they put up with HOU / ARI after that original control expired was acquired via free agency so no longer traded away at that point.

For Davies and Grisham the Padres traded them again before their original team control expired, so I would just consider that as part of a new transaction between SDP and CHC (Davies) / NYY (Grisham).

Somewhat topical, one of the prospects SDP included in the Davies deal with the Cubs back in 2020 was Owen Caissie. Time really is a flat circle I guess.

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