NL Central Discussion 2026

[sveumrules]

1 minute ago, Jopal78 said:

I don’t know. I think you’d be singing a different tune if the Brewers had a 22 year old with 32 homers and an .810 in his first 546 PAs like Sal Stewart.

Abbott has had a tough year, but was a 5.4 bWAR last year so I’m not sure the denigration is apt.

 

For his career Abbott is at 553 IP of 81 ERA- | 99 FIP-. Out of 85 pitchers with at least 400 IP over the last four seasons the -0.78 run gap between his 3.58 ERA and 4.36 FIP is the second largest behind only Shota Imanaga (3.43 ERA | 4.33 FIP) and just ahead of Jose Berrios (3.79 ERA | 4.44 FIP).

If his mediocre peripherals (95 K+ | 103 BB+ | 109 HR+ | 97 AVG+) were more in line with his run prevention I'd be fine classifying him as a #2, but most thought Peralta was barely a #2 in the grand scheme of things and he had 516 IP of 81 ERA- | 93 FIP- (3.40 ERA | 3.88 FIP) over his last three years with the Brewers while also running a top end strikeout rate (130 K+ | 6th highest from 2023 to 2025) and being one of the hardest pitchers to get a hit off of (85 AVG+ | 4th lowest from 2023 to 2025).

Stewart's raw power numbers will naturally be inflated hitting at GABP. All that only shakes out to a 114 wRC+ so far this year (115 for his career) and he is looking like a long term 1B where league average wRC+ has been 117, 109, 107, 111, 111, and 113 the last six seasons.

Still plenty of time to improve for sure, but so far he has 2.5 WAR in 615 career PA which is more of a solid starter than any kind of star. If that is your second best player you are going to need a whole lot more depth than the Reds currently have with their 5.5 WAR (30th in MLB, 1.3 wins below even the Rockies) from their position players entirely accounted for by EDLC (3.6 WAR over 491 PA) and Sal (2.0 WAR over 557 PA). The rest of their position players have combined to put up -0.1 WAR over 3,773 PA.

[Fear The Chorizo]

48 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I don’t know. I think you’d be singing a different tune if the Brewers had a 22 year old with 32 homers and an .810 in his first 546 PAs like Sal Stewart.

Abbott has had a tough year, but was a 5.4 bWAR last year so I’m not sure the denigration is apt either.

They have a nice core, but their moves for veterans have busted. I’m sure almost anyone would prefer the Reds group for future potential than for example PCA and a bunch of veterans in their 30s like in Chicago. 

 

I think a big differentiator is the Reds' defense stinks...and that's being generous.  They've got some young talent with pop, but they struggle with keeping teams off the scoreboard and many of their young position players aren't going to win gold gloves.  They remind me of the Fielder/Weeks/Braun brewers teams when they all came up together - it took a few seasons of tweaking pitching staffs to turn those teams into playoff contenders. I agree that their core is better positioned for success in future years than the Cubs....but both organizations are way behind the Brewers in that regard.

[wibadgers23]

Seems like it was just yesterday when the Cubs had the lead down to 3 games and now it's back up to 6 just like that. Even with the 7 head to head remaining, the Cubs are in danger of Milwaukee running away with the division.

[Jopal78]

39 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

For his career Abbott is at 553 IP of 81 ERA- | 99 FIP-. Out of 85 pitchers with at least 400 IP over the last four seasons the -0.78 run gap between his 3.58 ERA and 4.36 FIP is the second largest behind only Shota Imanaga (3.43 ERA | 4.33 FIP) and just ahead of Jose Berrios (3.79 ERA | 4.44 FIP).

If his mediocre peripherals (95 K+ | 103 BB+ | 109 HR+ | 97 AVG+) were more in line with his run prevention I'd be fine classifying him as a #2, but most thought Peralta was barely a #2 in the grand scheme of things and he had 516 IP of 81 ERA- | 93 FIP- (3.40 ERA | 3.88 FIP) over his last three years with the Brewers while also running a top end strikeout rate (130 K+ | 6th highest from 2023 to 2025) and being one of the hardest pitchers to get a hit off of (85 AVG+ | 4th lowest from 2023 to 2025).

Stewart's raw power numbers will naturally be inflated hitting at GABP. All that only shakes out to a 114 wRC+ so far this year (115 for his career) and he is looking like a long term 1B where league average wRC+ has been 117, 109, 107, 111, 111, and 113 the last six seasons.

Still plenty of time to improve for sure, but so far he has 2.5 WAR in 615 career PA which is more of a solid starter than any kind of star. If that is your second best player you are going to need a whole lot more depth than the Reds currently have with their 5.5 WAR (30th in MLB, 1.3 wins below even the Rockies) from their position players entirely accounted for by EDLC (3.6 WAR over 491 PA) and Sal (2.0 WAR over 557 PA). The rest of their position players have combined to put up -0.1 WAR over 3,773 

Baseball analytics are now a Rorschach test, anyone can pick metrics to prove whatever point they want to make. 

Abbott is the Reds #3 starter behind Burnes and Greene (when healthy) with a 1.28 WHIP in over 500 career innings, and is probably a Top 10 lefty starter in the NL, despite the metrics. 

We do know Stewart has more home runs and a higher slugging percentage on the road than at home so I’m not so sure GABP is inflating his slugging, but regardless the fact is he would be hitting 3 or 4 in the Brewers line up every night. 

[markedman5]

12 hours ago, StearnsFTW said:

He's right though.  

I’m not a fan of them either……. but it’s just bizarre to be so obsessed that you can’t gain ground on your rival that that you are left with complaining about their fashion choices……..lol.