Trevor Megill is Reinventing Himself on the Fly, and it's Working

[Jack Stern]

Image courtesy of © Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

After his struggles reached their apex in a blown save on April 14, Trevor Megill’s results have flipped for the better. Megill has allowed just one earned run in his last nine outings, picking up four holds and an extra-innings save while settling in as a productive setup man ahead of Abner Uribe.

It hasn’t been a run of favorable luck, either. Megill has been legitimately dominant during this stretch, missing barrels and posting excellent strikeout and walk rates. Most of his major ERA estimators since April 16 are below 2.50.

Date	BF	ERA	xERA	FIP	SIERA	Hard Hit	K%	BB%	K-BB%
Through 4/14	29	14.40	7.90	4.12	5.00	52.6%	17.2%	13.8%	3.4%
Since 4/16	33	1.00	1.75	1.34	2.21	35.0%	33.3%	6.1%	27.3%

The turnaround has not come from Megill rediscovering the lost fastball velocity that plagued him in his first several outings. In fact, his velocity has continued to decrease ever so slightly, even at the time of year when he starts rounding into form. His heater averaged 99 mph last May, but it’s at just 96.9 mph this month. Sitting 96-to-98 now looks even more like his new normal than an early-season blip on the radar.

At that velocity, Megill’s fastball remains a magnet for loud contact instead of the overpowering pitch it was when it regularly touched triple digits. It’s performed more reliably during this stretch, though, largely because Megill has used it more strategically.

Date	FB MPH	FB Exit Velo	FB Hard Hit	FB wOBA	FB xwOBA	FB Whiff%
Through 4/14	97.5	98.7	77.8%	.520	.595	16.7%
Since 4/16	97.2	91.0	57.1%	.299	.402	22.9%

For starters, Megill has made his pitch mix far less predictable. Here’s how he attacked hitters through that blown save:

Since that outing, Megill has not only decreased his overall fastball usage and thrown more curveballs, but also mixed those pitches more evenly in most count situations. It’s become harder for hitters to pick up on patterns and sit on a certain pitch.

As a fireballing late-inning reliever, Megill has never needed to be a command pitcher. His breakout with the Brewers stemmed mostly from throwing more pitches in the strike zone, not locating them in perfect spots. With reduced velocity, his old approach of trying to throw every pitch down the middle—knowing his fastball would stay true through the zone, while his curveball would drop below the knees—is no longer viable.

Instead, Megill appears to be targeting more specific locations when playing his fastball and curve (which is essentially a short, tight gyrospin slider at this point) off one another. In those early weeks of the season, his command was sporadic, but the middle of the zone still looked like his focal point.

Lately, his location has looked more deliberate. Megill is keeping his fastball around the top of the zone to righties, allowing him to land more in-zone curveballs out of the same tunnel for takes and weak contact. Against lefties, he’s setting up chases on back-foot breaking balls with low fastballs shaded inside.

In addition to throwing more high fastballs, Megill is also backspinning them a bit more, and his release height is slightly higher. Those changes have increased the carry on his heater, improving its induced vertical break from 19.1 inches to 20 inches during this stretch. Small improvements like that can be the difference between a barreled ball and a swing slightly underneath his fastball. Without its best velocity, Megill needed new strategies to keep hitters from timing it up. He’s made some impressive progress on the fly in response to his struggles, allowing him to remain a key piece in the Brewers’ bullpen—for now.

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[jay87shot]

With Megill getting right and Abner on track the pen is taking shape. Hall and Ashby have been dependable and if they can get the bb under control can be dominant. Anderson has been solid and Drohan and Fitzpatrick have shown the upside to be consistent quality arms. If one of Yoho, Rob Z, Holub, Childers, or Koenig can burst on the seen that bullpen can be what it has been and more. I brought up the idea of trading Megill at the deadline if he has it turned around and the rest of the pen is sorted. I still think it might be a good idea if his velo is down a tick and there is a couple good pieces in return. I just worry about him imploding again and losing all value. As it is, he is extremely valuable to this team and it would take a perfect storm of all of the bullpen pitching well and a very strong offer to really send him away.

[Team Canada]

If he can't throw 100 anymore, does he need to develop a third pitch to remain dominant?  Obviously he doesn't have to worry about anyone seeing him more than once, but that still gives hitters a 50/50 shot to guess what pitch is coming and sit on it (which is why it's critical to mix it up as noted above). Kinda like Devin, if you have an average fastball and a good breaking pitch, you better be really on your game or it's going to be a struggle. Or imagine Patrick with just 2 pitches.

[Matthew Trueblood]

48 minutes ago, Team Canada said:

If he can't throw 100 anymore, does he need to develop a third pitch to remain dominant?  Obviously he doesn't have to worry about anyone seeing him more than once, but that still gives hitters a 50/50 shot to guess what pitch is coming and sit on it (which is why it's critical to mix it up as noted above). Kinda like Devin, if you have an average fastball and a good breaking pitch, you better be really on your game or it's going to be a struggle. Or imagine Patrick with just 2 pitches.

It's definitely a fair question, at least. That fastball down and in to lefties does set up the curve well, but once they start looking for it, it will stop being a good pitch and become a problem in a hurry. There's a reason most pitchers don't live there with the heater.

[maxximus]

what i'm curious about is if anyone thinks this is sustainable. Jack's final sentence seems to imply not. As others said, a 2-pitch arsenal has its limits, so trying to consistently surprise the hitter in any given count seems like a high-wire act that can only last so long

[Snoebird]

2 hours ago, maxximus said:

what i'm curious about is if anyone thinks this is sustainable. Jack's final sentence seems to imply not. As others said, a 2-pitch arsenal has its limits, so trying to consistently surprise the hitter in any given count seems like a high-wire act that can only last so long

Corey Knebel had a pretty good career as a two-pitch reliever. What Megill now has to deal with is an ABS system that puts his knuckle curve under increased scrutiny. He's at his best when he can minimize his workload, and losing a hitter to a walk via challenge punctures Megill's armor.