After Missing Out on Tarik Skubal, Brewers Still Got What They Needed Most at Trade Deadline

[BrewerFan]

8 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

None of Wagoner, Wichrowski, or Kuehner are flamethrowers. Wagoner is closest but even he in AAA is averaging more like 96-97 with his FB with average shape. Cruz and Grable both have 70 grade fastballs according to Fangraphs and both profile as high leverage relievers.

Sure. I mean, then the Yankees didn't trade any "flamethrowers." 
If Wagoner throwing 101 shortly after coming back from that TJ and then the complications isn't a flamethrower... I don't know what is. 

Wichrowski was touching 100 and Kuhener as a lefty throws 97-99 when healthy.

But... I'm not going to this pedantic thing again. The Yankees traded four low upside middling pitchers. 

If it's your argument they couldn't have matched that... fine. 
If it's your argument Wagoner isn't a flamethrower... sure. 

 

 

[wiguy94]

4 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Sure. I mean, then the Yankees didn't trade any "flamethrowers." 
If Wagoner throwing 101 shortly after coming back from that TJ and then the complications isn't a flamethrower... I don't know what is. 

Wichrowski was touching 100 and Kuhener as a lefty throws 97-99 when healthy.

But... I'm not going to this pedantic thing again. The Yankees traded four low upside middling pitchers. 

If it's your argument they couldn't have matched that... fine. 
If it's your argument Wagoner isn't a flamethrower... sure. 

Wichrowski hasn’t touched that velo in years and Kuehner has never sat 97-99 (no idea where you got that from). Yes Wagoner has touched triple digits and that’s why I said he’s the closest we have to a flamethrower but he’s sitting 96-97 in AAA. 

Cruz has sat 98-100 this entire season. Grable sits a bit below that but has outlier FB shape. I get we all love our prospects but Wagoner isn’t either of those guys.  

[BrewerFan]

17 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Wichrowski hasn’t touched that velo in years and Kuehner has never sat 97-99 (no idea where you got that from). Yes Wagoner has touched triple digits and that’s why I said he’s the closest we have to a flamethrower but he’s sitting 96-97 in AAA. 

Cruz has sat 98-100 this entire season. Grable sits a bit below that but has outlier FB shape. I get we all love our prospects but Wagoner isn’t either of those guys.  

"Years." This pre-season... but sure years. That's what he throws out of the pen, not as a starter and he was doing that THIS pre-season. So no, not "years." He's also a starter so if you DO want an apples to apples, his velo is exactly in line with the starters the Yankees traded.
Didn't say Kuehner "sat" 97-99, but that he can throw 97-99 out of the pen.

And Wagoner ok. He's "close" to one, but not one. 

Also, the Nats said they wanted POWER ARMS. Wagoner, 

Jake Bird throws 94-96
Cebert is 92-95
Grable is 93-96

THOSE are "flamethrowers?" There's ONE power arm in that group... is Cruz and he's on his 4th organization in 4 years(while being healthy) and Wagoner has been much better as a power arm in AAA this year than Cruz.

 I get we all love front office and arguing we couldn't match this trade, but we... we sooo easily could have... if we wanted to.

 

[BCF]

Velocity doesn’t matter much 

Henderson sits 91-93 and he’s been super effective as a starter in his career 

[SeaBass]

9 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

There isn't one. Dallas and teams like the Giants, 49ers... I mean, we all know which cities, but they'd dominate the game and the NFL would probably be worse.

Just think if a team could sign every player they wanted. The Rams... who certainly look scary enough, they'd probably be spending 300-400M more than the Brewers(if not more) and guys like Myles Garrett, they wouldn't sign extensions or restructure so often because if they hit FA without the danger of the franchise tag. 

I'm just thinking, but a OL with Tristan Wirfs and then Trent Williams, Creed Humphrey and I don't care enough to keep going and listing two OGs, but basically the 90s Cowboys. 

I'm not really arguing that, my point (in this specific post, my overall point is below) was that the new salary cap back in the 90s didn't help or deter the Packers ability to win a Super Bowl after the '96 season. Their team was already headed that direction before the cap was implemented in 1994. They traded for Favre in '92, signed Reggie in '93 (pre-cap) to a record setting deal and even after the cap was implemented they still signed major free agents to get them there. The Packers had the means to compete regardless of the cap at that time because they had a great GM working on it.

The cap wasn't restricting them back then. Reggie coming to Green Bay had a massive impact on other players wanting to come to Green Bay whereas before that the Green Bay PR was 180 degrees opposite, nobody wanted to come here.

My OVERALL point was that people seem to think that MLB implementing a salary cap will help the Brewers get to a bunch of World Series when in reality it's still pretty rare for teams in other salary capped leagues to have multiple shots at championships in short periods of time. The NBA might be an exception but it seems contained to a handful of franchises. The Packers have won one Super Bowl in the last (near) 30 years and the other one that falls into that timeframe was the '96 team.

The Vikings and Lions are still waiting for their first SB championship. There are ELEVEN teams in the NFL that have never won a Super Bowl and 4 among those have never been to a Super Bowl. Yay salary cap!

[LouisEly]

18 hours ago, TURBO said:

Truth, and the Dodgers are not the 2025 Dodgers team either, they added Skubal, and we counter with May.

We are not playing the same game as the Dodgers.

The Dodgers are not the 2025 Dodgers.  For all of the consternation about Yelich, Betts is having an even worse season and they keep hitting him in the middle of the lineup.  Hernandez has a .739 OPS and Tucker has a .732 OPS.  There's three positions where the Brewers have an offensive advantage (Pratt, Chourio, Bauers/Lara).

Bauers/Vaughn are right there with Freeman.  Turang is right there with Edman.  Mitchell is right there with Pages.  Contreras is right there with Will Smith.  The Dodgers have an advantage at two positions (3B, DH), the Brewers have an advantage at three positions (SS, LF, RF).  If you want to count Ortiz as the SS, then he's a wash with Betts this year, but then you have to factor in Alex Freeland (.622 OPS) at 2B and that's advantage Turang.  That's just offense; defense is a different story that I'm not going to get into.

Great pitching is going to shut down any lineup, not just the Brewers.  So, the Brewers need great pitching to shut down the other team's lineup and keep it a close game.  The Royals won a World Series by getting a lead through the 5th inning, and then throwing four shut-down relievers.  They didn't win it by scoring 7 runs a game.

[Trax]

19 hours ago, TURBO said:

Instead, we burnt what, #11 AND #13?

Just feaking crazy...

I liked both of those prospects, saw Rags play in Appleton on a day he went 2-3 with a homer and a great defensive play.  We had offered Pena and 2 other prospects for Skubal, that would have upset me far worse.

I think we at least have a chance to sign May after the year is over which would not have been the case with Skubal.  May and Romero definitely help this team and make us stronger for post season.  No doubt.

I don't like it, but I understand it.  Glad we did not throw away top 10 guys.  Not just Made, but Pena and Fischer were off limits in my book.

[Trax]

I've given up on Yelich.  He should be strictly platooned and batting 7 or 8.  

What we need is Contreras and Chourio to get and stay hot.  We need Bauers and Turang and Mitchell and Vaughn to hit like they have been and more.  Vaughn just needs more at bats.  Hopefully Frelick comes back healthy and can help.

All the focus can't just be on the Dodgers.   We have to get to them and then play lights out ball.

[MrTPlush]

2 hours ago, SeaBass said:

I'm not really arguing that, my point (in this specific post, my overall point is below) was that the new salary cap back in the 90s didn't help or deter the Packers ability to win a Super Bowl after the '96 season. Their team was already headed that direction before the cap was implemented in 1994. They traded for Favre in '92, signed Reggie in '93 (pre-cap) to a record setting deal and even after the cap was implemented they still signed major free agents to get them there. The Packers had the means to compete regardless of the cap at that time because they had a great GM working on it.

The cap wasn't restricting them back then. Reggie coming to Green Bay had a massive impact on other players wanting to come to Green Bay whereas before that the Green Bay PR was 180 degrees opposite, nobody wanted to come here.

My OVERALL point was that people seem to think that MLB implementing a salary cap will help the Brewers get to a bunch of World Series when in reality it's still pretty rare for teams in other salary capped leagues to have multiple shots at championships in short periods of time. The NBA might be an exception but it seems contained to a handful of franchises. The Packers have won one Super Bowl in the last (near) 30 years and the other one that falls into that timeframe was the '96 team.

The Vikings and Lions are still waiting for their first SB championship. There are ELEVEN teams in the NFL that have never won a Super Bowl and 4 among those have never been to a Super Bowl. Yay salary cap!

For starters, people don’t claim a salary cap is some magical fix and the Brewers will win a World Series. No one has ever claimed we are all going to take turns and win one every 30 years either. So you are making a counter argument for a claim that has never been made. 

Comparing the NFL to the MLB is a massive stretch. Some teams have never won and some have never appeared, yes. It turns out you need to still assess talent properly and develop players. The NFL also lives or dies on your ability to find a star player at a specific position. Imagine if that weren’t the case. The NFL gets dynasty’s from QBs, MLB gets them from spending well above other teams. That’s a problem.

How many small markets have won a World Series in the last 20 years?

2015 Royals

2011 Cardinals

2006 Cardinals

You can add about three more teams if you want to include the losers.

Since the Royals World Series win I’m not sure a non Top 10 payroll team has even appeared in the World Series. (Rays in 2020 excluded).

But yah, payroll definitely is not an issue or a predictor of a teams ability to even get to the World Series.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2 hours ago, SeaBass said:

The Vikings and Lions are still waiting for their first SB championship. There are ELEVEN teams in the NFL that have never won a Super Bowl and 4 among those have never been to a Super Bowl. Yay salary cap!

A salary cap isn't a cure-all. Teams still need to be run well. The Vikings and Lions have been run like dumpster fires for decades. 

The main argument is that the teams that ARE run well, such as the Milwaukee Brewers, still cannot compete in the current environment. And looking at which teams have eliminated the Brewers from the playoffs for the last decade, that has the basis of a strong argument.

[SeaBass]

9 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

For starters, people don’t claim a salary cap is some magical fix

I don't think there are a lot of people here that think that but when it comes to the more general fandom I think it's a more popular thought there. I understand why folks want one, I'm not completely "against" a salary cap myself but I am skeptical how effective one will actually be. Months ago Passan published an article, based on the owner's initial offer, that painted a fairly grim picture. It didn't feel like it would curb the Dodgers by much and that small market teams would still find it challenging to compete.

Anyway, it actually depends how it all shakes out and how it gets structured. If it happens at all.

As far as the labor side of it, I'm for the players. I pretty much feel like they should just not agree until the owners cave and they do something else. That's my personal take.

[SeaBass]

12 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

A salary cap isn't a cure-all. Teams still need to be run well. The Vikings and Lions have been run like dumpster fires for decades. 

The main argument is that the teams that ARE run well, such as the Milwaukee Brewers, still cannot compete in the current environment. And looking at which teams have eliminated the Brewers from the playoffs for the last decade, that has the basis of a strong argument.

I understand. I think the Brewers are competing right now but of course they're still at a very major disadvantage. I won't reiterate what I just posted in response to MrTPlush but those are my feelings.

[Brewcrew82]

Caveat is it's Bleacher Report, but I think this is a pretty fair evaluation of the top prospects traded at the deadline. Frias isn't even in the top 10. For arguably the second best starter traded at the deadline plus an established late inning reliever, I don't think the price we paid is anywhere near as outrageous as many fans have portrayed. I think people to a large extent were seduced by Frias' ACL performance and Fangraphs putting him in their updated top 50, when in reality, he's probably more of a backend top 100 guy right now at best. And if he continues to perform like he is right now in A ball, he will likely fall off top 100 lists entirely. Still incredibly young and talented, but so is Brailyn Antunez who is performing much better right now. 

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25461489-ranking-zyhir-hope-and-top-10-mlb-prospects-traded-2026-deadline

[Klantz27]

I dont even get why everyone was so hyped up for skubal im so glad we didnt get him honestly 

Like bro literally cares about a contract and nothing else. Dude talks about how much he loves the tigers yet he sabotaged there season by hiding his elbow injury to get more money in arbitration 

Dude wouldn't care about winning a championship for milwaukee if he was traded here

 

 

[Turning2]

They didn't upgrade the offense. As such, it wouldn't have made sense to waste player / prospect capital on Skubal. Thanks to the Woody / Priester / Zerpa / Koenig injuries, what they needed most was pitching help. Not for any WS expectations, but to run out the season competitively.  They got better in that they addressed adding a veteran pitcher with post season / WS experience and they bolstered the middle relief. That makes them more competitive in more than one game every 5th day with a Cy Young starter. 

[BrewerFan]

11 hours ago, SeaBass said:

I'm not really arguing that, my point (in this specific post, my overall point is below) was that the new salary cap back in the 90s didn't help or deter the Packers ability to win a Super Bowl after the '96 season. Their team was already headed that direction before the cap was implemented in 1994. They traded for Favre in '92, signed Reggie in '93 (pre-cap) to a record setting deal and even after the cap was implemented they still signed major free agents to get them there. The Packers had the means to compete regardless of the cap at that time because they had a great GM working on it.

The cap wasn't restricting them back then. Reggie coming to Green Bay had a massive impact on other players wanting to come to Green Bay whereas before that the Green Bay PR was 180 degrees opposite, nobody wanted to come here.

My OVERALL point was that people seem to think that MLB implementing a salary cap will help the Brewers get to a bunch of World Series when in reality it's still pretty rare for teams in other salary capped leagues to have multiple shots at championships in short periods of time. The NBA might be an exception but it seems contained to a handful of franchises. The Packers have won one Super Bowl in the last (near) 30 years and the other one that falls into that timeframe was the '96 team.

The Vikings and Lions are still waiting for their first SB championship. There are ELEVEN teams in the NFL that have never won a Super Bowl and 4 among those have never been to a Super Bowl. Yay salary cap!

Oh... ok, well, then I'd have to strongly disagree with you. 

The NFL knew they were adding a cap. Teams were ALREADY preparing for the Cap the year before. The cap helped us sign Reggie himself. The Cowboys, 49ers, Washington were the other teams along with the Packers. They offered less money because SF knew they were going to be ~30M over the 34M salary cap and they backloaded his contract and it wasn't even guaranteed. Same with Dallas. Don't know what Washington offered, but the Cap played a big role.
 

The just within the actual roster building in '94 it had a huge impact. The 49ers as it was had 50% roster turnover and cut star or traded away multiple starting QBs(Bono and Montana) they could otherwise hoard due to the cap. Montana going to KC wasn't exclusively a cap move, but it was definitely part of it. They knew the cap was coming. Bono was a cap move.

They did end up getting rid of Ronnie Lott, Tom Rathman... I don't know who else, but those were particularly famous cuts(and they were still cheating).

Dallas lost Maryland, the former #1 overall pick the year we won the Super Bowl because they couldn't afford him under the cap(among others). 

I don't think they're winning a Super Bowl without a salary cap. The 49ers had to cut a number of players and STILL cheated and still circumvented the cap.



I don't know if it'll help the Brewers get to a "bunch of World Series," but I think a salary cap and most importantly, spreading out the TV money and dividing that up equally, it'd give them a helluva lot better shot. 

[BrewerFan]

8 hours ago, Klantz27 said:

I dont even get why everyone was so hyped up for skubal im so glad we didnt get him honestly 

Like bro literally cares about a contract and nothing else. Dude talks about how much he loves the tigers yet he sabotaged there season by hiding his elbow injury to get more money in arbitration 

Dude wouldn't care about winning a championship for milwaukee if he was traded here

 

 

I think it's the fact that he's arguably the best pitcher in Baseball and a lefty and instead of coming to the Brewers, he went to our biggest rival.

I don't know you say he "literally cares about a contract and nothing else." He had surgery on his elbow this year and came hack in 38 days when most pitchers are out for 2-3 months. 

And you keep saying he sabotaged his team and... it's nonsense. He won two Cy Youngs and he had elbow soreness that he thought was going to get better and then, again, had surgery and came back in 38 days. 

That's "sabotaging" his team?

 

You seem to think him wanting a 400M contract next off-season makes him a bad guy. He won't pitch like CC. What CC did was stupid. WE knew that at the time. Almost nobody would do what CC did, Sabathia's agent was not happy and I don't think the Brewers today would even ask him to do that. 

I'm not broken up about not getting Skubal, but it's not hard to see why people were "hyped" for a back to back Cy Young winning pitcher who was likely going to come to Milwaukee OR go to the team standing in our way. 

[BrewerFan]

9 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Caveat is it's Bleacher Report, but I think this is a pretty fair evaluation of the top prospects traded at the deadline. Frias isn't even in the top 10. For arguably the second best starter traded at the deadline plus an established late inning reliever, I don't think the price we paid is anywhere near as outrageous as many fans have portrayed. I think people to a large extent were seduced by Frias' ACL performance and Fangraphs putting him in their updated top 50, when in reality, he's probably more of a backend top 100 guy right now at best. And if he continues to perform like he is right now in A ball, he will likely fall off top 100 lists entirely. Still incredibly young and talented, but so is Brailyn Antunez who is performing much better right now. 

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25461489-ranking-zyhir-hope-and-top-10-mlb-prospects-traded-2026-deadline

Yeah, that's a GIANT Caveat. He's an 18-year-old who's already put up Exit velos in the 117 range. 

I think the price we paidis exactly as outrageous as many fans and analysts have portrayed him. 

I think a lot of fans were seduced by him for the same reason they were Chourio and Made before him. Massive raw power from a young kid with massive upside... and the fact that we're saying "if he keeps performing like he has been in A ball" ~25 games in,  he'll fall off the list sounds like coping. 

I also didn't put the stock in the Fangraphs. Baseball America. That's the best resource. 

I love the Brewers front office, but is there nothing they can do where we say, "yeah, that seems dumb, they really overpaid?" And that's not even touching on Ragsdale who, if you want to go off how prospects are performing their level, he was hitting ~.300/.430/700 with 12 HRs and 70 grade speed. 
He was performing better than the top prospect the Dodgers traded for Skubal, Zyhir Hope in AA(and Hope was playing in a much more hitter friendly league). 

I don't believe one single fan would have been fine with Frias for Dustin May, a rental and an injured reliever or including Ragsdale in that group one week ago. Now it's 'Bleacher report doesn't have him as one of the top 10 prospects traded?'

Literally minutes before this trade was announced, I made a post about how I just hope they don't include Frias in a trade. This went against how the Brewers operate and there's a REAL good chance we're watching Frias in a decade playing for the Cardinals and remembering when we had Dustin May for a couple months. 

And of course, maybe we won't. Maybe he'll peter out in AA and  never become much... and I'll still hate this trade because it's the process that was stupid. You didn't trade him for a star, you traded him for a rental who's a middle of the rotation arm. 
 

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

Yeah, that's a GIANT Caveat. He's an 18-year-old who's already put up Exit velos in the 117 range. 

I think the price we paidis exactly as outrageous as many fans and analysts have portrayed him. 

I think a lot of fans were seduced by him for the same reason they were Chourio and Made before him. Massive raw power from a young kid with massive upside... and the fact that we're saying "if he keeps performing like he has been in A ball" ~25 games in,  he'll fall off the list sounds like coping. 

I also didn't put the stock in the Fangraphs. Baseball America. That's the best resource. 

I love the Brewers front office, but is there nothing they can do where we say, "yeah, that seems dumb, they really overpaid?" And that's not even touching on Ragsdale who, if you want to go off how prospects are performing their level, he was hitting ~.300/.430/700 with 12 HRs and 70 grade speed. 
He was performing better than the top prospect the Dodgers traded for Skubal, Zyhir Hope in AA(and Hope was playing in a much more hitter friendly league). 

 

Frias isn't on the Chourio or Made trajectory. He's behind where they were at that age and been much worse than them statistically in full-season ball. That is a certifiable fact; not coping. He's also strictly a corner player, which they weren't. 

No one is saying he doesn't have tantalizing tools, specifically in terms of his raw power, but he has a ways to go to get to that level and the error bar is thus much larger. 

I still think they overpaid when you include Ragsdale. But considering there's a very real argument that May was the best non-Skubal pitcher traded at the deadline and they also got an established late inning lefty reliever, I maintain that the price is not as excessive as it seems I'm honestly just as excited by Brailyn Antunez right now, which may have been why they felt able to part with Frias. 

[BrewerFan]

2 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Frias isn't on the Chourio or Made trajectory. He's behind where they were at that age and been much worse than them statistically in full-season ball. That is a certifiable fact; not coping. He's also strictly a corner player, which they weren't. 

No one is saying he doesn't have tantalizing tools, specifically in terms of his raw power, but he has a ways to go to get to that level and the error bar is thus much larger. 

I still think they overpaid when you include Ragsdale. But considering there's a very real argument that May was the best non-Skubal pitcher traded at the deadline and they also got an established late inning lefty reliever, I maintain that the price is not as excessive as it seems I'm honestly just as excited by Brailyn Antunez right now, which may have been why they felt able to part with Frias. 

He's played 25 games in A ball at 18. That's absolutely the same trajectory Chourio was on. He's shown exceptional tools at the same age. Same trajectory. Did he put up the exact same stats in the first 120 PAs? No, I guess I didn't realize I had to articulate he was literally going hit for hit and doing EXACTLY the same, but he's pretty damn close. 

Also... how did we come to this 'very real' argument that he was the 2nd best pitcher traded at the deadline?

What about him or his history would make you want him over Robbie Ray, Jose Soriano, Mize... and since we're valuing minor league stats so strongly over tools, surely we're doing the same with MLB staters, so how about Forrest Griffin, a guy with another year of team control?

If it would have come out that we didn't get Dustin May because the Cardinals were asking for Frias, the 95% of the board saying 'we've got a lot of OF depth and he's not performing well... in full season baseball at 18, oh and we have this other OF prospect who doesn't have the same profile as him, he's hit really well... in 7 games.'

They'd absolutely be saying, 'that's a crazy ask for a pitcher with his injury history who had thrown into the 6th inning ONCE in the last month and has an ERA of almost 6.50 in the last 7 starters, 4.38 on the season, Frias is the fastest riser in the system, he has 60 power and is the exact type of prospect we've failed to develop,' and nobody would be saying May was the 2nd best pitcher to Skubal. I love this board, but the absolute adherence to the Brewers company line can be... a LOT. It's never 'That's a bad deal, it looks like they panicked because they kept missing out on the pitchers they seemed interested in and had to overpay a division rival.' Can't we just be pissed off? And bleacher report over actual reputable sites... again, like Baseball America and then saying, 'not even one of the top 10 players traded.' Ok. That article says that. Do YOU actually believe that? Would you have said that last week?

Just looking at the price Gausman went for, it'd... not even close. 


I actually like May. I think if we can get him to go back to his sinker as his primary pitch, he could have a good run for us... if he holds up, that's obviously been FAR from a given, but the #2 pitcher? Based on what?

Not on his body of work. 
Not on this years performance.
Not on his playoff performance.

What's the very real argument he was better than the 2nd best pitcher for the Tigers who was traded, much less all the other pitchers I cited?

[BCF]

Some rough outings for new pitchers..

 

Casey Mize goes 3.1 IP, 9 H, 8 ER, 3 BB, 1 K, 1 HR and just 2 whiffs on 77 pitches

[Brewcrew82]

50 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

He's played 25 games in A ball at 18. That's absolutely the same trajectory Chourio was on. He's shown exceptional tools at the same age. Same trajectory. Did he put up the exact same stats in the first 120 PAs? No, I guess I didn't realize I had to articulate he was literally going hit for hit and doing EXACTLY the same, but he's pretty damn close. 

Also... how did we come to this 'very real' argument that he was the 2nd best pitcher traded at the deadline?

What about him or his history would make you want him over Robbie Ray, Jose Soriano, Mize... and since we're valuing minor league stats so strongly over tools, surely we're doing the same with MLB staters, so how about Forrest Griffin, a guy with another year of team control?

If it would have come out that we didn't get Dustin May because the Cardinals were asking for Frias, the 95% of the board saying 'we've got a lot of OF depth and he's not performing well... in full season baseball at 18, oh and we have this other OF prospect who doesn't have the same profile as him, he's hit really well... in 7 games.'

They'd absolutely be saying, 'that's a crazy ask for a pitcher with his injury history who had thrown into the 6th inning ONCE in the last month and has an ERA of almost 6.50 in the last 7 starters, 4.38 on the season, Frias is the fastest riser in the system, he has 60 power and is the exact type of prospect we've failed to develop,' and nobody would be saying May was the 2nd best pitcher to Skubal. I love this board, but the absolute adherence to the Brewers company line can be... a LOT. It's never 'That's a bad deal, it looks like they panicked because they kept missing out on the pitchers they seemed interested in and had to overpay a division rival.' Can't we just be pissed off? And bleacher report over actual reputable sites... again, like Baseball America and then saying, 'not even one of the top 10 players traded.' Ok. That article says that. Do YOU actually believe that? Would you have said that last week?

Just looking at the price Gausman went for, it'd... not even close. 


I actually like May. I think if we can get him to go back to his sinker as his primary pitch, he could have a good run for us... if he holds up, that's obviously been FAR from a given, but the #2 pitcher? Based on what?

Not on his body of work. 
Not on this years performance.
Not on his playoff performance.

What's the very real argument he was better than the 2nd best pitcher for the Tigers who was traded, much less all the other pitchers I cited?

Lol. It is factually not the same trajectory Chourio was on.

In his age 18 season, Chourio SKIPPED OVER the ACL, went straight to A ball and put up a 155 wRC+ over 271 PAs with a .276 ISO. He then was promoted to A+ ball before the end of July, putting up a 117 wRC+ and a .236 ISO, finishing the season in AA. 

In his age 18 season, Frias has spent most of his time in the ACL, with only a 93 wRC+ and a .182 ISO in full season ball (A) thus far. Literally not even close. 

As for May, here's how he compares THIS YEAR to the other non-Skubal pitchers traded at the deadline: 

May: 109 IP, 3.14 FIP, 15.5 K-BB%, 2.6 fWAR, 105 Pitching+

Gausman: 127 IP, 3.50 FIP, 16.9 K-BB%, 2.7 fWAR, 105 Pitching+

Soriano: 123 IP, 3.79 FIP, 13.7 K-BB%, 2.1 fWAR, 105 Pitching+

Ray: 122.2 IP, 4.36 FIP, 8.8 K-BB%, 1.0 fWAR, 89 Pitching+

Mize: 90 IP, 2.82 FIP, 17.6 K-BB%, 2.8 fWAR, 99 Pitching+ 

So, he in fact, compares quite favorably to the pitchers you cited. If you consider that Mize's velo and stuff is way down recently (he got shelled in his debut tonight), he certainly has a real argument for the 2nd best pitcher traded at the deadline. 

 

[BrewerFan]

 

8 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Lol. It is factually not the same trajectory Chourio was on.

In his age 18 season, Chourio SKIPPED OVER the ACL, went straight to A ball and put up a 155 wRC+ over 271 PAs with a .276 ISO. He then was promoted to A+ ball before the end of July, putting up a 117 wRC+ and a .236 ISO, finishing the season in AA. 

In his age 18 season, Frias has spent most of his time in the ACL, with only a 93 wRC+ and a .182 ISO in full season ball (A) thus far. Literally not even close. 

As for May, here's how he compares THIS YEAR to the other non-Skubal pitchers traded at the deadline: 

May: 109 IP, 3.14 FIP, 15.5 K-BB%, 2.6 fWAR, 105 Pitching+

Gausman: 127 IP, 3.50 FIP, 16.9 K-BB%, 2.7 fWAR, 105 Pitching+

Soriano: 123 IP, 3.79 FIP, 13.7 K-BB%, 2.1 fWAR, 105 Pitching+

Ray: 122.2 IP, 4.36 FIP, 8.8 K-BB%, 1.0 fWAR, 89 Pitching+

Mize: 90 IP, 2.82 FIP, 17.6 K-BB%, 2.8 fWAR, 99 Pitching+ 

So, he in fact, compares quite favorably to the pitchers you cited. If you consider that Mize's velo and stuff is way down recently (he got shelled in his debut tonight), he certainly has a real argument for the 2nd best pitcher traded at the deadline. 

 

Chourio was better at this point. Nobody disputes that. But you're arguing against something I never said. I said Frias was on the same trajectory, not that he was putting up a 155 wRC+ like Chourio.

Frias was an 18-year-old in full-season ball with elite bat speed, exit velocity and physical projection. The Brewers themselves challenged him aggressively, just as they did Chourio. 

But I'm sure you were talking about how the 18-year-old in A ball more than holding his own with a ~750 OPS in danger of getting demoted. Really? C'mon... that's an intellectually honest take. 

 

As for May, you're moving the goalposts here. 

Nobody's arguing that Dustin May is a bad pitcher. I mean, the totality of his career would argue he's incredibly unreliable, but... sure, he had a nice start to the year. The question is whether his wild swings, terrible injury history was worth Alexander Frias and Josias Ragsdale for two months of Dustin May, given the alternatives that were available.

You're also cherry-picking the comparison. Why are we only comparing May to Robbie Ray, Mize, Soriano and Gausman?

Clay Holmes was reportedly one of Milwaukee's primary targets before they pivoted to May. Foster Griffin cost considerably less. Mize had another year of club control. Gausman cost the Cubs their 13th- and 24th-ranked prospects in a VASTLY inferior system after showing he can pitch at a high level last year in the postseason(after a career of showing he can be among the better pitchers in the league). 

All of them had better Bref WAR than May... by quite a bit and for all the "Soriano's struggled," none have pitched as poorly as May has recently.

That's the comparison that actually matters. What did each team pay, and what did they get?

You're also leaning heavily on season-long numbers while dismissing recent performance whenever it's inconvenient.

You mention Mize's velocity trending down and one rough debut after the trade. Fine. That's fair to mention.

But then why completely ignore what May has looked like for the last month?

Over his last seven starts he's been one of the least effective pitchers acquired at the deadline. Three starts allowing five or more earned runs. Twice he didn't make it out of the second inning. His stuff and command have backed up considerably from where they were earlier in the year. 

If recent trends matter for Mize, they also matter for May.
May has a ERA and an FIP both significantly higher in the last ~6 weeks than Mize AFTER a bad start. 

Then there's the durability question, which Pitching+ doesn't answer.

Pitching+ tells us something about the quality of a pitch. It doesn't erase years of injuries. May has spent a huge portion of his career on the injured list. That's part of his value whether we like it or not, because Milwaukee isn't buying April Dustin May—they're buying August and September Dustin May and hoping he stays healthy.

As for WAR, now we're just picking whichever version happens to support the conclusion. Baseball Reference has May at 0.8 WAR, not 2.6. Clay Holmes produced more bWAR in nine starts than May accumulated all season. Different WAR models value pitchers differently, which is exactly why citing only the one that favors your argument isn't particularly convincing. Soriano 2.7 WAR, Foster Griffin 3.5 WAR, Robby Ray, 2.0 WAR. 

And let's not pretend executives around baseball viewed May as the crown jewel of the deadline. MLB surveyed executives about which acquired pitcher would have the biggest playoff impact. Casey Mize received the most votes. Robbie Ray, Kevin Gausman, Clay Holmes and Foster Griffin all received votes. Dustin May wasn't mentioned. In fact, Zepherjahns and a couple relievers were mentioned. Not ONE executive even mentioned May, the guy who just got traded to the team with the best record in Baseball. 

That doesn't prove May can't pitch. It does suggest that everyone else around the league paid to evaluate talent didn't view him as the impact acquisition you're making him out to be.

Finally, I think this is where we fundamentally disagree. I don't think this trade gets evaluated in a vacuum.

If Milwaukee had passed on this deal because the asking price was Alexander Frias, you'd be praising the front office for showing discipline. You'd be saying, "That's too much for an injury-prone rental who's trending in the wrong direction." 

Instead, because they made the trade, we're working backward from the conclusion that it must have been a good value and finding statistics to justify it. If they'd have gotten Soriano, a guy with 2 more years of team control, a guy who throws in the upper 90s, gets Ks and is a heavy GB pitcher, there's no shot in hell you'd be arguing Dustin May was a better pitcher and you know it. 

I don't buy that logic. I think they panicked after missing on other targets and paid a premium for a rental whose recent performance was declining, whose injury history is extensive, and who simply wasn't viewed around the league as the premier starter available.

This trade has the potential to become a historically bad trade... but even if Frias does end up crashing out in AA, it still won't change my mind on the process. They traded a 18-year-old with 60 power who just turned 18 this year and is already in A Ball, a kid with enormous upside for a pitcher who... has struggled. 

I like May. There's no way you believe he was the 2nd best pitcher traded. Clearly not better than Soriano. Probably similar to Gausman. I'd take Holmes and his GB rate. Handing a guy like Frias to STL makes it that much worse. This has all the potential to look like a James Shields-Fernando Tatis Jr trade... except at least Shields had a reputation for performing well in the postseason and at been a TOR type starter.  

[Valentín Viña]

Ragsdale already homered. 110 mph off the bat.