Game 1 - Packers @ Vikings - Sunday, Sept. 13th @ 3:25 PM

[CheezWizHed]

Starting off the 2026 regular season at the same place we ended the 2025 regular season, but in a game that matters this time.

The first 2-3 games of the season always feel like a box of Forrest Gump confectionaries... you never know what you are going to get. Questions abound with this new Packer team, but so does the potential.

On Defense

• Can we keep pressure on Kylar Murray without Parsons?  Or will we prefer to keep containment on a QB that is more dangerous with his feet? 
• Who gets the benefit? Gannon's familiarity with Murray's strengths and weaknesses or Murray's familiarity with Gannon's D? 
• How will our DB hold up with three solid WRs?  

On Offense

• How will a gimpy offensive line that hasn't played much together (or might have 2 backups starting) hold up to Flores' blitz happy D? 
• Will we be able to run the ball at all?  The Vikings DTs are rookies, but our interior OL and RBs are unproven also. 
• What will come with our offensive strengths - Love to Golden, Reed, Watson, and Kraft?  Will Love have time to connect with our strongest assets? Vikings' pass defense was very strong last year, but probably more on their ability to pressure than the talent in the DB backfield.  

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Slop fest where the Packers leave a bunch of points on the field and don't impress, but ultimately win because I think Minnesota is going to be really bad. Something like 17-13. The Vikings ineptitude on offense gets people too excited for our defense.

[JosephC]

The oddsmakers and the betting public don't seem to agree.

https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/nfl/packers-vikings-prediction-odds-player-prop-bets-picks-week-1-jaa/

Packers opened as a 2.5 favorite, and now if you go to the BetMGM sportsbook, the Packers are currently a 1.5 point underdog.

Guess I would be more concerned 20 years ago, when the majority of gamblers were NOT college students throwing their financial aid money away.

 

[HarveysWBs]

Week 1 is always a little weird around the league, and I know that the MLF discourse has traditionally been that the Packers start particularly slowly. So I reviewed all the week 1 performances under LaFleur and they are as follows:

• 2019: 10-3 victory in Chicago (not a good Bears team, of course)
• 2020: 43-34 victory in Minneapolis (barn burner, but also weird no-crowd situation during COVID)
• 2021: 3-38 loss to Saints (bizarre Jacksonville game because of hurricane Ida)
• 2022: 7-23 loss in Minneapolis (the beginning of the end of Rodgers’ tenure)
• 2023: 38-20 win in Chicago (sort of surprisingly positive result in light of Love’s struggles in the rest of the first half that season; Love and the team were widely considered to have improved greatly by the end of the year)
• 2024: 29-34 loss to Eagles (Brazil game, terrible field surface, and Love gets hurt late; the injury likely did not affect the outcome of the game but slowed his development that year and probably affects how people remember that game)
• 2025: 27-13 victory over Lions (decisive and tone-setting victory in some ways, though the Lions were not as good as expected by the year’s end)

My analysis is that the narrative of slow LaFleur starts was largely a product of Rodgers’ decline and the Love transition, combined with some truly bizarre circumstances, especially with the road and overseas environments. As such, I don’t think it has much to tell us about this week one visit to Minneapolis other than to reinforce that it can be tough to win in that stadium under normal conditions.

I expect the Packers probably win 55 or 60% of the time, but my confidence is lower than that in this particular instance. The injury report on the o-line is a bit ominous. Morgan should be fine, but Bako-Bewele and Banks look iffy. If either miss considerable amounts of this game, the Packers offense might be on the struggle bus against a maniacal blitz scheme (likely made even more aggressive by questions in the Minnesota secondary). If they’re both out, I’m only half sarcastic in thinking it might be best to give the Vikings a Pyrrhic victory and send Taylor in to play the second half.

The Packers look set to walk a really fine line between excellence and horror this year, which may be the theme of LaFleur’s entire tenure.