Keep Brad Nelson

[DrWood]

I tried to post a link to Brad's MILB.com stats page, but failed.

 

Nelson actually hits with RISP!!!!! Something the big club could use.

I doubt he'll ever be a star, but I think he might be able to contribute.

Put him on the 40 man at the end of the season, there are a few guys that can be dispensed with then.

 

And, he only has one error this season.

[TheCrew07]

web.minorleaguebaseball.c...pid=434525

 

Season stats above.

 

I've followed him closely for a long time, I don't see how he fits in. Career Stats below.

 

www.thebaseballcube.com/p...lson.shtml

 

He's been good this year with RISP, but he still hasn't knocked in many runs.

[JJHardy7]

Is he a free agent at the end of this year?

[TheCrew07]

Yes

[DrWood]

He's a minor league free agent if he's not on the 40 man.

 

The place he fits in is as a LH OF and backup 1B. If Jenkins is gone, and Gross is gone...

 

But really, I'm thinking of him in 2009 where he and LaPorta could split time. Possibly a 2008 callup.

 

I'm thinking Brad is really only getting over his injury now.

 

Of course, it would depend on who else is vulnerable at the end of the year. I don't know that. If anyone wants to start a new thread, that would be nice.

[JJHardy7]

What type of deal would it take to get him as a minor league free agent? Would he prefer a better shot at making a big league team? I'd have to guess he would.

[Boy Jeenius]

I am a big Nelson fan. But I was curious when the JS said today that the Rangers wanted a 1B prospect, but the Brewers could not help them there. Sadly, this may say it all, as to where is status might really be.

[dadofandrew]

He's not a "prospect", he's a decent minor league player. 1B/OF need to rake to be prospects, and unless he moves to C, he's a rather weak hitter for AAA.

[DrWood]

the issue at this point is he more of a prospect than dillon, nix, sarfate, rottino, and several other players that are on the 40 man roster? He's only 24 and he's in AAA. It's not like he's in Brevard.

[BillScottCanRake]

the issue at this point is he more of a prospect than dillon, nix, sarfate, rottino, and several other players that are on the 40 man roster?

 

The only way the Brewers can ensure that Nelson remains with the organization is to add him to the 25-man roster next year. If he's not, they'll have to designate him for assignment. He'll probably clear waivers, and if he expresses a desire to play elsewhere, the Brewers will probably let him.

 

Just because he's "better" than some of the guys you mentioned doesn't meant he Brewers will or should keep him.

[DrWood]

you sure about that? I thought he only had to be on the 40 man roster to avoid being a minor league FA. It's not like he's used up his options or anything.

 

If he's younger than, and better than another player, you bet they should keep him.

 

of course, there is more than one way to assess "better".

[gregmag]

Doc, I brought up Nelson a couple of weeks back, and a lot of people made very sound points about why he's unlikely to help the Brewers. Summarizing and adding: he's a one-dimensional masher who doesn't mash quite enough to exemplify the type, his K/BB ratio is lousy, his BA isn't high enough to sustain his low walk rate, and he's a defensive butcher. Also, you mention hitting with RISP, but I'm a pretty firm believer that hitting with RISP isn't an actual skill.

 

However, loathe as I am to differ with Al's unqualified and meticulously documented assertion that Nelson is "a rather weak hitter for AAA," I do think there's at least another side to the story. As you point out, Nelson is a normal age for AAA; 24 is still young enough to get better; and the Brewers might actually have use for a platoon LF in the near future. But I think your best point has to do with the possibility that he's just getting over the injury. Check out Brad's ISO numbers for the past five years, starting with the year he got hurt:

 

2003: .095

2004: .180

2005: .141

2006: .134

2007: .226

 

There's a basis in those numbers for hypothesizing that Brad is only now getting back into his power game. Now, maybe he's not; maybe he's just having a fluke year. Also, if this is the very best he can do, he won't quite cut it; and then there's the six-year FA problem. But I'm just intrigued enough, and the Brewers are barren enough of power bats at the upper levels, that I would love to have him around next year if they could swing it.

 

Greg.

[BillScottCanRake]

Ok, the first thing I need to clarify is that Nelson is not currently on the 40-man roster. He was, but I had forgotten he was outrighted in June 2006. This means we don't need to worry about options or the 40 man roster, but we do still need to worry about him becoming a free agent.

 

It is important to note that Milwaukee can't simply add him to the 40-man roster to keep him. I think you are confusing the Rule 5 draft and minor league free agency.

 

From the BF.net FAQ:

 

What is the 40-man ros

The 40-man roster is comprised of all of the players on the 25-man roster, anyone who is on the 15-day disabled list, and minor leaguers who usually have played 3 or more professional seasons. Players who are on the 60-day disabled list are not on the 40-man roster. A team may recall players that are on the 40-man roster that are not on the 25-man roster during the season.[/i]

 

The only time Nelson will be on Milwaukee's 40-man roster again is if he were added to the 25-man roster. And, if that were to happen, I think he'd be out of options.

 

Now, after six minor league season, which would be after this year, Nelson can become a free agent. He could still resign with the Brewers, but as a FA he isn't obligated to do so. If he were to sign a minor league deal with the Brewers, he would be property of the Brewers and wouldn't be on the 40 man roster.

 

That said, there are probably other teams that would put him closer to seeing time in the majors if he signed with them. As a player who has worked for 6 seasons to get to the majors, I am sure he will give a lot of consideration to moving on if he thinks he has a better chance of making it to the majors with another team.

 

Sorry for the confusion.

[Jim Goulart]

Just a reminder that "six-year minor league free agent" is a mis-nomer. The term comes from the fact that a player can have his minor league contract renewed six times, so in essence, it is seven years that an organization owns a player on his initial affiliated contract. Nelson is wrapping up his 7th year in the Brewers' chain.

[homer]

Quote:

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However, loathe as I am to differ with Al's unqualified and meticulously documented assertion

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Was that really necessary?

[gregmag]

It was a little attempt at humor, because Al is usually very good at grounding his arguments in facts, and this one he just kind of tossed out there in a way that stood out to me as uncharacteristic, as well as not quite sound. I thought my tone was mild enough that it wouldn't be mistaken for pique, but maybe I was wrong. Sorry if I offended you, homer.

 

Greg.

[dadofandrew]

I'm never offended by someone as well thought out with his views as Sir Greg.

 

I have not looked up Brad's satts of late, but last I saw he was about .340/.420...far from impressive for a AAA 1B/LF. If he was a SS, those are solid big league possibilities.

[pogokat]

its more like .333/495 now...

 

it's too bad he lost time to injury...he's not as flat as some thing he is...he'd be about average as a starting corner guy in his prime...it just won't be with the brewers

 

i bet he hits 40 homers in AAA some year though...

[JoeHova]

Quote:

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its more like .333/495 now...

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That translates to about .275/.405 in MLB, which would make Brad one of the worst players in the majors.

 

Quote:

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he's not as flat as some think he is...he'd be about average as a starting corner guy in his prime

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I don't see how you can say this. An .830 OPS in AAA for a corner-type is just not good at all. There are dozens of guys that hit much better that will never get a shot. A corner guy who is at the right age or above for his league really has to hit .950 or so (at least) to have any kind of realistic possibility of helping an ML team. The average corner outfielder (adjusted for Miller Park and the 2007 NL) hits .370 OBP/.465 SLG. for an OPS of .835. Brad isn't even doing that in AAA.

 

Now greg's point about Brad's power coming back may make next year interesting, but as of now, he just doesn't hit nearly enough to be an ML option.

[DrWood]

I didn't mean to assert that Nelson would be helping the brewers anytime soon (not before a 2008 callup). Just that: 1) he's not old; 2) he's getting better; 3) he's a LH-power-hitting OF, which you might also claim for Jenkins, Gross, and Nix, but is younger than them all, and there might be a need for Nelson in 2009, if not sooner; 4) He's performing better than Katin in a higher league, and is the same age and type of player, but Katin is claimed to still be a prospect .

 

Also, "butcher" seems unwarranted. He's never made a ton of errors, he actually had 17 OF assists one year. He can't be ungodly slow since he has 6 steals this season. Granted, there is more to defense than that, but still, butcher?

 

I guess he needs to hit .333 the rest of the way with 10-15 HR to convince folks. It's possible.

[gregmag]

Doc, "butcher" was my word, and it may well be unfair. I was trying to paraphrase what I recalled folks' having said in the other thread, and in my effort not to softpedal the criticisms I may have implied that I knew more than I do. Your point about his assists is interesting. Maybe it's enough to say that he's limited to 1B and LF, unless anyone who has seen him play the field has more informed insights.

 

Greg.

[pogokat]

Joehova---

 

Brad is 24...i'm talking about Brad at 27...he's far from done with his chance in baseball...i think he'll be capable of putting up an .800 ops when he's 27, 28...

 

i think it does a great disservice to a player when you do a straightmathmatical conversion of their AAA numbers...i agree that he would struggle to keep his obp at a reasonable level, but his slugging wouldn't like fall as far as you are suggesting

 

right now, Brad's hitting .348/.526/.874 against righties...which suggests he's not a total rummy, just a platoon guy...i think calling him the potential worst player in the league is reaching massively to burn the guy..

 

again, i don't think he has a future with the brewers...but if used correctly, i am positive he could carry a .800 ops in the majors...and since he 24 and only in his first full season in AAA, i think some are being overly quick to dismiss his ability...he's 8 years younger than Joe Dillon...and 3 younger than Nelson Cruz...

 

anyway..

[JoeHova]

.i think calling him the potential worst player in the league is reaching massively to burn the guy.

 

I meant that's all he's shown so far.

 

nd since he 24 and only in his first full season in AAA

 

but whose fault is that? Brad got demoted the previous 2 years, it's not like the team didn't give him a shot.

 

i think some are being overly quick to dismiss his ability...he's 8 years younger than Joe Dillon...and 3 younger than Nelson Cruz.

 

true. However, they have much better track records than him. Youth doesn't necessarily mean a guy will develop.

[pogokat]

I agree...i just think that Brad will have a very good AAA career, which should allow him to catch a break with some mlb at some point...he's missed his chance with the brewers...but i wouldnt be surprised to see him throw up that .950 OPS you mentioned in the next couple years at AAA

[gregmag]

but whose fault is that? Brad got demoted the previous 2 years, it's not like the team didn't give him a shot.

 

I don't think Pogo's point boils down to a question of fault or credit. I think he's saying, and I agree, that Nelson is still on a normal development track; it isn't like he's settled into AAAA purgatory. A great many players who go on to be useful MLB hitters spend their age 24 seasons as good, not great, AAA hitters.

 

However, they have much better track records than him. Youth doesn't necessarily mean a guy will develop.

 

Youth, however, does mean that a guy has a meaningful shot to develop. That's the real point -- and we all seem to agree, the essential point, for whatever we think it's worth -- in Nelson's favor. Of course he may not get any better, but 24 year-olds who have had serious prospect mojo in the past, lost it, and show signs of getting it back are exactly the kinds of players on whom smart organizations make low-stakes bets. He has some pedigree and some upward trajectory.

 

Also, when you say Dillon and Cruz have better track records, present tense, are you comparing them to Nelson now? That's . . . well, not quite apples to oranges, but it's a hard comparison to sort out. Nelson Cruz at 24 put up his first good year, a 954 OPS, but that was between A+ and AA. He just grazed AAA that year, put up an 872 OPS in half a season at AAA at 25, didn't stick at that level until he was 26. Joe Dillon at 24 put up a 776 OPS at A+. He didn't put up a 900+ OPS at AAA until he was 29 and didn't play his first full season at that level until he was 30. Nelson, right now, is ahead of where Cruz was and way ahead of where Dillon was.

 

All I'm saying is, if the Brewers could figure out a way to re-up Nelson to start next year at Nashville, I would consider that to be a potentially helpful move.

 

Greg.