7 Players with 20+ bombs?

[LUKE232323]

First question, do people think Cameron will hit 20+ in his 130 or so starts?

 

Second question, has a team ever had 7 guys with 20 or more HR on it? I think this years team could. Hardy is the only one that I'm iffy on, but I think Braun/Fielder/Weeks/Hall/Hart are locks.

[Blancofan1]

I could easily see us have seven players with over 20.

weeks, cameron, hardy, hall, braun, fielder, hart, maybe dillon if he gets enough playing time

 

five with a solid shot at 30 weeks, hall, braun, fielder, hart.

[LUKE232323]

I could easily see us have seven players with over 20.

weeks, cameron, hardy, hall, braun, fielder, hart, maybe dillon if he gets enough playing time

 

five with a solid shot at 30 weeks, hall, braun, fielder, hart.

I don't think Dillon had any HR last year.

 

[Blancofan1]

no dillon didn't have any after being called up, but had 20 in 319at bats in nashville though. he's a long shot, but i think he would have a shot if he gets the playing time, which would probably mean someone from my original 7 gets hurt

[sbrylski]

I don't think Dillon had any HR last year.

 

He had some very nice pop in the minors. (39 HR back in 2004, 20+ in each of the last two seasons in under 100 games each).

 

That said, I don't think he'll hit 20 in the ~200-250 PA he should get.

[Zycho32]

If Dillon gets enough PT for 20 HR, it'll come at the expense of somebody else, which means the max of 20 HR players will probably be seven.

 

Well... maybe if his PT is because of a Braun Injury...

[Sopranos62]

Don't forget about Gallardo! One HR per start at least and you can up your total to 8!

[razzzorsharp]

Barring Major Injury...

 

Fielder and Braun

 

Barring Minor Injury

 

Hart

 

Should but iffy..

 

Weeks and Hall

 

Less than even money...

 

Hardy and Cameron

 

Sleeper...

 

Gross

[Ennder]

I think Hardy is a better bet for 20 than Weeks myself. The guy has displayed 25 HR power since the start of the 2nd half of his rookie year. He was at a 20+ HR pace in the 2nd half of 2005, in his limited time in 2006 and of course in 2007.

 

I think Cameron is capable of 20 HR's in miller park even with the suspension but I won't be surprised at all if he doesn't hit 20.

[PlayerHader]

I'd put my money on Weeks over Hardy.

 

I'll set the over/under at 4.5. What do you all say now?

 

I'll take the under. I see 4 guys getting 20+ (probably 30+) and a good group around 15-19.

 

Bill Hall is my main "leave out." If you will.

[twobrewers]

If Dillon gets enough PT for 20 HR, it'll come at the expense of somebody else, which means the max of 20 HR players will probably be seven.

Exactly. I think in a full season he could hit 20 HR.

 

But since the only way he sees enough playing time would be replacing Hall, Hart or Braun because of injury - someone else would drop off.

 

Dillon might get 300 AB - but I can't imagine that being enough to hit 20 HR for him.

[adambr2]

Yeah, if Dillon gets 20 HR in 300 AB, then he didn't get nearly enough playing time. I don't think he'll get 300 AB though, I think 150-200 is probably closer. Really, everyone in our lineup is capable of 25+ HR in a full season besides Kendall.

 

Just for my guesses -

 

Weeks - 28

Hardy - 20

Hall - 21

Hart - 27

Cameron - 16

Braun - 43

Prince - 52

 

Add in some by Gross and Dillon, a small handful from Kendall, Munson, and maybe a couple from a September call-up (Branyan??) and the pitchers, and we should have a great chance to beat the total put up last year. Sorry TGJ, I just don't see it. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[logan82]

I am not sure Hall will ever hit 30+ HR again in his career. He has only gone over 20 once. His next best year was 17.

[adambr2]

I don't think he'll ever hit 35 again, but I think he's a 20-25 HR a year guy.

[GAME05]

i see a per-at-bat HR dropoff from Cameron this year. wasn't he hitting deeper in the SD lineup last year? batting 2nd for us i see him far more focused on getting to first base than hitting for power.

[adambr2]

I haven't heard anything conclusive that says Cameron will be batting 2nd this year, although it's one of the possibilities.

 

I'm not sure how moving up from 7th to 2nd in the lineup would result in less HR's, though, especially considering moving up that far in the lineup would probably result in 40 additional AB's throughout the season.

[logan82]

Moving from 7 to 2 in the order would give him 3 more HR going off of last years stats.

[bullox]

You guys missed the 'per-at-bat' qualifier that he dropped in there.

[logan82]

Nah, hitting is hitting. You try to square the ball and hit it hard. He takes lots of pitches anyway, judging from his pitches/PA, so it isn't like he would have to change his approach much. Add in he is moving to a home park that gives up more HR, and I don't see how he hits fewer.

[GAME05]

Cameron had essentially even home/away power numbers last year, so I don't see the move to MP affecting him too much.

 

looking at his splits from last year, he hit 0 HRs with a runner on 1st and 9 HRs with RISP, so I would definitely expect a change in his approach if he hits in the 2 vs. 7 next year, moving Weeks to 2nd base vs. RBI opportunities.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think 20 HR is a perfect reference point for what to expect from Cameron this season.

[Ennder]

Cameron had 1 HR per 28.8 AB at home last year, 1 per 25.72 on the road

Cameron had 1 HR per 25.19 AB at home in 2006, 1 per 25 away on the road

 

Keep in mind Miller Park has a HR factor of 116 for RH batters from 2005-2007. SD had a 92

 

Clorado a 123, Arizona a 107, LAD a 106, SF a 84

Cincy a 127, Hou a 119, Chi a 107, STL an 81, Pitt a 72.

 

If you wonder why we stuggled vs Pitt and STL it is because right handed power hitters really struggle in those parks. He has an advantage over last year in well over half his games.

[logan82]

GAME05 wrote:

looking at his splits from last year, he hit 0 HRs with a runner on 1st and 9 HRs with RISP, so I would definitely expect a change in his approach if he hits in the 2 vs. 7 next year, moving Weeks to 2nd base vs. RBI opportunities.

If we are going to get selective like that we can look at 2005-2006 when he hit 9 with a runner on 1B and 9 with RISP.

 

Over his entire career

RISP 1 HR/29.73 PA

1B only 1 HR/29.92 PA

[brewtank34]

If Cameron hits in front of Fielder, then yes, he will hit 20. If not.....he won't.

[BrewCrewForever]

I think 20 HR is a perfect reference point for what to expect from Cameron this season.

Yeah I think Hall, Hardy, Weeks and Cameron are all 20-25 HR guys. Fielder and Braun are 40+ and Hart is around 30ish.