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Entering spring training last year, Tyler Black had good prospect buzz all over him. He'd just torn through the top two levels of the minor leagues in 2023, hitting .284/.417/.513 with 18 home runs and 55 stolen bases. He'd shown superb plate discipline even after a second-half promotion from Double-A Biloxi to Triple-A Nashville, and most fans were happy to look past or downplay some of the slightly concerning underlying numbers, like a 102-mile-per-hour 90th-percentile exit velocity. By acclamation, his upside was high, and the future was close at hand.
It never came. Black arrived last spring hoping to play a fair amount of third base, but that didn't pan out. They gave him lots of reps at first base in Arizona, and then with Nashville, with unsatisfactory results. Black is a good athlete, in a general way, but he utterly lacks a defensive home right now. The best plan seems to be to move him to the outfield, and he did play 12 games out there in 2024, but the Brewers don't have the level of need for help at those positions that would make Black especially valuable to them there, since he's not even an instinctive or successful defender when he ventures out there, like Sal Frelick and Blake Perkins are.
Worse, Black sputtered in his 57 sporadic plate appearances in the majors, and he took a modest step backward offensively even in the minors. Over 462 plate appearances with Nashville, Black batted .258/.375/.429, and hit just 14 home runs. His 90th-percentile exit velocity actually got slightly worse, at 101.9 mph. His average exit velocity was a lousy 85.7 mph, and even if we focus only on the batted balls with a launch angle between 10 and 35 degrees, the figure is only 89.2 mph.
He still piled up walks, because the technology-assisted strike zone in the high minors is hitter-friendly and because Black has a good eye. He still didn't strike out much, because he genuinely does have average-plus contact ability. It's not clear, though, whether Black can keep his strikeout rate well below average against big-league hurlers or not.
His per-swing whiff rate at Nashville was under 20%, which would be about 80th-percentile in the majors. When he was actually in the majors, though, he whiffed over 24% of the time, which is more or less average. Big-league pitchers are better at throwing strikes than Triple-A pitchers are, and they have no reason to fear Black, given the lack of sock in his stick. Even if he maintains his Triple-A contact rate once he gets a longer runway in the majors, he's likely to strike out more and walk less than he's done in his 635 trips to the plate at Triple A.
That's to be expected, and it's fine for a prospect with good power and/or ample defensive value. Since Black is short on both, though, the specter of regression in the value of his plate discipline is daunting, because that's really the only way he reliably creates value right now. Eventually, he might emerge as a better and different hitter. He might move to the outfield, get more consistent playing time there, and blossom into a fine center fielder; he has good speed. In the meantime, though, Black just isn't very helpful, especially to the Brewers.
Many fans were still hoping he'd get a look at the hot corner this year in Maryvale. That isn't happening, and with good reason. Many assume he at least has an inside track on one of the bench jobs on the prospective Opening Day roster. That's not so, either, and nor would that track be deserved. There's no longer an expectation that further development in Nashville will smooth out his flaws. If it were going to, that should have happened already. At this point, he's ticketed to Triple A simply because he's not one of the team's best 26 players.
Black is Frelick or Brice Turang without the glove right now. He's a disciplined but light-hitting designated hitter. Until something in that equation changes dramatically, don't expect to see him take on a significant role with the Brewers—and if he ever does get that significant role, it might well be for another team.







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