FVBrewerFan
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Everything posted by FVBrewerFan
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By the time most of those guys get their shot and truly start to hit their stride, Shaw/Nelson/Anderson/Davies/Knebel/Santana/Braun/Thames will be near the end of their contracts. And a hypothetical Lance Lynn or Jake Arrieta deal would be nearly over. I don't have extremely high expectations for that group you list at the top, but chances are, most of them will be hitting their stride in 2020 in the pros if any break through...just in time to have half of the roster turning over anyways in the following 2 offseasons. Absolutely. That's why I rather find out now who could be part of a future rotation and bullpen. Sign Arieta, or don't sign him. Trade for Archer, or not. Either way they are not winning a WS with this core group anyhow, So I'm all about the next wave. I'm building around Santana, Arcia, Brinson, Phillips, Hader, etc. And most of the guys you mentioned above aren't THAT old, some of them can still be pieces a few years from now. I'm thinking Anderson and Davies, maybe Shaw/Knebel. Certainly Santana. Guys like Ponce and Perrin are trade bait at this point, and the return isn't much. That's why I rather see if we have something there, let them pitch. It's not that big of a reach given their backgrounds. Maybe you find lightning in a bottle, now they're much more valuable either to keep or trade. Otherwise, it's a panic trade before this time next year.
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I would honestly rather see Ponce, Perin, or Derby before Archer or any of these other trade or FA candidates being thrown around. Perfect time for guys like that to get a shot. If you wait, they could get caught up in the 40 man crunch next year, and they have guys like Burnes, Peralta, and Ortiz ahead of them already in the pecking order. Maybe they're not quite ready, maybe they're as ready as they're ever going to be. While I wouldn't want to push Peralta or Ortiz, I have no problem pushing this next level of pitchers to see what you have. I've always felt that was one of the advantages of rebuilding, you can take chances like that.
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A good GM knows where the money needs to be spent right now. If they truly think Arrieta is worth it, that means they're pretty sure that one of Woodruff/Hader and Suter/Wilkerson/Guerra are just depth guys and maybe Nelson won't be a factor. We've got a bevy of good OF prospects and solid prospects up the middle. If those guys fail, then we'll be rebuilding for all of Arrieta's 4 year tenure anyways, in which case it doesn't matter much. If Arrieta is a massive bust and as you predict, the need shifts...we'll have money for 1-2 more big contracts if we want after 2020 and 2021 when Braun/Thames (3 years) and Arrieta (4 years) are gone. I think that the way the salary is set up, the Brewers can probably frontload Arrieta's deal a bit if this really does happen. I didn't predict Arieta would be a massive bust. My point is who cares if he's really good this year? If they truly think Woodruff, Nelson, etc. won't be a factor then just adding Arieta won't make a difference anyhow. Just throwing money out there because we have it wouldn't be disastrous for 2018, but he's not going to sign for one year , of course. Just look at the state of the rotation. Other than Davies, we know what he is, everyone else is a question. Adding a #3ish type starter does what for this team in 2018? I mean, even adding him everything single thing would have to go right for this roster to be a WS contender. Finally dumped Garza's salary, still stuck with Braun's for three more years. Let's just wait until it really is time to go for it before we throw more big contracts around.
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First, annual reminder there will be lots of rumors this time of year. Maybe Brewers are seriously looking at Arrieta. Maybe they're just feeling around to get a sense of what the market is, or purely playing a game of miss-direction. Most likely, they're taking a look around and making calls on many if not most FAs. Doesn't mean they're serious, just doing what every good Front Office should be doing this time of year. Never hurts to look. It's not the right time for a move like this. There's way too many question marks to throw a big 4-5 year deal at a SP or anyone. A move like this should be the LAST move made when everything else looks like you're ready to compete. That way you have a better idea where to spend money. For all we know a big bat will be needed more than a SP. Plus, you also get the most bang for your buck by having that contract for all 4-5 when we're honestly competitive rather than blow the 1st couple years while still rebuilding.
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$180/month isn't bad. Remember, that includes high-end internet and local phone. Don't get me wrong, it's ridiculous. But compared to other packages it's not bad. I have looked at all options out there from time to time, piecing things together, and I figure I would have saved maybe $5-$10/month. But now I'm using a couple different providers (roku, appltev, FoxSports Go, etc), still need DVR, figure out how to have service for several TVS , antenna for locals, etc. Oh, and still need internet separately (which will now be more doing it that way of course) Vonage for my land line. Just a giant pain. On another note, I did save a ton on cell service switching from VZ to Sprint.
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Hopefully TPlush put in a good word for us Who knows, things like that may make a difference. Not sure if Thames knows him at all, but that would help too. I know Thames was in Korea (on the good side) but I would think he had exposure to the Japanese players while he was over there. So we have that, agent in common, and who knows maybe he wants a small market. Still not likely, don't get me wrong, but at least there's a few things that could help. Oh, and as far as endorsements go, Clay Matthews plays in the smallest market of all professional sports. That doesn't seem to keep him from being on every commercial that airs on Sunday.
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Since we spend a lot of time discussing the Brewers broadcast team, how about the Bucks? I feel the need to throw out props to Marques Johnson. I remember back when it was announced Marques and Gus Johnson would be added to broadcast team. I was super excited about Gus, and I still like him, but Marques is amazing. I have never heard an announcer so prepared, and so knowledgeable about the game. Not only does he know every detail about the Bucks' players, he knows about every player in the NBA. He goes through advanced stats, scouting reports, pretty much everything about each team and player. Also, he explains in detail what a defense is trying to do, responsibilities, etc. Does the same thing on offense, how a play is set-up, what it is intended to do, etc. Really, about 10 times more detail than I've heard from anyone else- ever. He does all of that, and is personable on top of it- throwing in enough old school references without over-doing it. Well done Marques!
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No, not directed at you at all, just a general comment I made. That's just my bias, I really don't pay attention to these type of awards. Even gold glove, silver slugger, all that stuff is pretty meaningless to me since it's far from objective. The only award I even marginally care about in any sport is MVP. Yea, that's subjective too, but at least it's a big deal for the player and fans.
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I doubt Counsell really cares much he wasn't voted MotY, so we shouldn't either.
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Yea, Mich State should be a great team. Indiana, Michigan, and Purdue will be really good. Wisconsin, of course, will be better than predicted. Then there could be a couple surprises like Minnesota, Maryland, Iowa.
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It is not impossible they would put a one loss Alabama team ahead of Wisc. Not likely, but i would guess at least 10% chance.
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You pretty much proved the point without realizing it, no difference in travel schedule. A bus trip for UWW to St Louis, Moorhead, Bloomington takes as long or longer than any trip UW has. Even Provo, the longest distance is a shorter trip (flying) than bus ride for UWW to St Louis or Moorhead. Yea, it's a tough schedule for any level. Boo hoo. It's also tough for student who work, some full time, while they go to school.
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MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 FAs
FVBrewerFan replied to Ron Robinsons Beard's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
No to all of this. Maybe Swarzak or Neshak if they really want to do that, fine. Not time yet to spend big money on a SP. Certainly not on a Walker or Hosmer. Get the fire going good befre you throw the big wood on top. Right now, we're still blowing the kindling. -
Disclaimer up front I'm not an attorney, much less understand the union contract, etc. But it seems to me the Packers should be successful here, looking at the chronology. Almost certainly will end in a settlement of some kind, and I hope that doesn't happen. I want the Packers do flat out win their case. Bennett can't play. Then says he need season-ending surgery. Tells every other team the same- except for the Patriots. If that part is true, easy enough to confirm. Then plays the next week for the Patriots. He's full of it, and they can prove it.
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Brewers to sign 25 year agreement with Maryvale
FVBrewerFan replied to Invader3K's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Agreed and world class facilities are world class facilities regardless of location. However, it could be a hindrance for the Brewers if FAs are considering the location of the Brewers spring home versus every other team in the Cactus League. Granted Spring Training is a month in March, but if you are having to rehab an injury during the year in Arizona, I sure would rather be rehabbing in any other location in Arizona than Maryvale. That's where I believe this deal is shortsighted. Honestly, I have to agree with Homer here. That's a major reach. Putting "could" in bold doesn't take away the fact your overall post shows you think it is a legitimate concern. I mean, you end it with "That's why I believe it is shortsighted." Odds are the same a player wouldn't sign with the Brewers due their uniform colors. -
He had no interceptions, but two really bad passes to the sideline that were a tick from getting picked off. The first one would have been a pick 6. As the announcers pointed out, another time it was 3rd and short, he had his first option on a slant for the 1st down, and just didn't throw it. Good news is he showed a nice touch on deep balls, which was the big knock against him coming in to the League. All in all, he looked like about 75% of the QBs in the NFL these days. Some great passes, and a lot of poor plays. It was odd he didn't run at all. They must have emphasized keeping a play alive and look downfield.
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I will throw you guys a bone. We're all talking as if Hader will be in the rotation to start the year. Don't get me wrong, myself included. But the Brewers haven't said that, or really even hinted at that- at lest not yet. So, if they keep Hader in the pen then I agree they need to go out and find a SP. I still wouldn't want a big contract guy, but at that point thy would simply need somebody to round out the rotation.
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The problem is I think it is much more likely to fall to 76-86. I don't think the upside is there on most of those guys. First, I just wanted to say it's nice to have debates like this without name calling, taking comments out of context, etc. Must say, it's very refreshing! Here's what I'm trying to figure out about your position. (And to be fair, not just you, but a lot of people who would be at least open to signing an Arrieta or someone for 4 years/ $100MM.) If you believe they are closer to 76-86, do you really think Arrieta is worth another 15wins or so it would take to win the division? Not to mention being a legit WS contender? I don't want to tank. But I also don't want to start spending real money until the rotation is more settled, and most of the position players as well. You have to get the fire started a little before you throw the big wood on it. The Cardinals model is fine, but you have to get there first before you can maintain.
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Brewers to sign 25 year agreement with Maryvale
FVBrewerFan replied to Invader3K's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Understand the concern, but I don't think you need to worry. This is a long term capital project and it won't have any impact on what they want to spend on annual payroll at the MLB level. Just like the new concession stands at MP, buying the Mudcats, etc. All of these are long term projects, and build up value of the franchise. As far as this deal goes? Yes, Maryvale isn't a great area. But as Homer said it's not that bad. I'm just glad they're staying in AZ, as FL temps and weather in general can be a little iffy in March unless you're in extreme south FL. I will go down every 2-3 years, and I enjoy driving all over the Phoenix area anyhow. Just make sure to miss rush hour traffic, and it's fine. -
MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 FAs
FVBrewerFan replied to Ron Robinsons Beard's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
You always seem to use Josh Hader and Chris Sale in the same sentence. Yes, they're similar is some ways. Sale is his first year threw 63% fastballs. Hader? 82%. Early on and throughout his career has thrown slider and change WAY more often than Hader has. People say all the time Hader needs to throw more than two pitches consistently. Actually, he really only relies on FB. That said, I'm not disagreeing that Hader should get a chance to start. I'm all for it. But before we call him Chris Sale Jr., he's going to need to command his slider and change. As a reliever he stuck with his FB. I get it, why not, when you're K'ing everyone with it. As a starter he'll need the 3 pitches. And honestly, the change more than the slider. But he knows that, and the Brewers know that. -
Harm is two-fold. 1) He would be blocking prospects. That wouldn't be an issue in 2018, but it would the next three years. When guys like Burnes, Peralta, Ortiz, Houser, Ponce, Yamamoto, etc. are ready there's only so many spots in the rotation. But that doesn't concern me as much as #2 below, since they could always trade Davies or whoever. 2) If he is injured or ineffective, we now have $45MM in (practically)dead money committed to him and Braun. The risk is you commit $25MM to a SP when we don't even know if that is what will be most needed when this team is ready to compete. What is they can develop a really good rotation in-house over the next couple years? I would rather use that money then to buy a big bat and/or a couple top shelf bullpen guys, etc. I have no problem spending big money. It just has to be done for the right player, and just as importantly at the right time.
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If you believe that, that should start spending a lot more money right now. I don't believe it. A big part of the success last year was due to Shaw, Thames (early), Sogard (one month), Pina, Nelson, Anderson, Knebel, Swarzak (late.) I am not sold on any of those guys repeating what they did. Certainly not Nelson, of course. Swarzak may not even be here. Not saying they won't, but they had the best season from all these guys. Sure, if some of them regress other guys like Arcia and Villar can have better seasons. But if I add it all up, I just don't see a team ready to compete for the WS. Even if they added a couple really good BP arms and a rotation arm. I agree, a rebuild rarely sticks to the original plan. Sometimes it takes longer, sometimes you have success earlier than expected. I just happen to believe last year's success was fool's gold. Fun season, I enjoyed it thoroughly. But I don't want decisions based on last year's success as though we make a tweak here and there and we win the WS in 2018. I'm just not seeing it.
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Patriots claim him. I mean, of course they did.
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It's not that I have too much confidence. It's that guys like Hader, Woodruff, Williams are ready now, and Burnes should be real soon. Will all of them, and the guys that follow all be great? Of course not. But they are still rebuilding. So I don't care how many rookies/ young players are on the pitching staff. The more the better. We don't know who will be a #1, #3, etc. The only way to find out is let them pitch. The longer we wait, the longer this rebuild will take. Sure, we can trade for or sign a stop gap or two, and we'll feel better. Maybe we win 84 games instead of 81 or whatever. Get the young talent up, position players too. Let's not fall into the trap this organization has so many times thinking they're ready to compete for a WS title. They're not.
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If Guerra is not back to form, that's a very shallow pitching staff. I hate to be cruel about that projection, but that team might win 70-75 games. Where is Woodruff? Yea, substitute Woodruff for Guerra Jeffress for Neshek Otherwise I would be fine with this. Looks like a 70 win team? So did the pitching staff before the start of the 2017 season. And that was before Peralta flamed out, Guerra was injured/ ineffective, and Nelson went down late in the year. Not to mention multiple implosions from various bullpen gas cans. No, I like this to start the season. Burnes up by June.