If Peralta and Nelson were having great seasons I would worry, but how can they possibly think they can contend in 2016 with the rotation they will have next year? Heck, if Peralta repeated the season he had in 2014 and Nelson was close to that you may even be able to convince me they could retool and compete next year. Instead, you have a rotation that is almost impossible to predict, and big question marks at LF and 3B. There's no way they can believe the team can compete with the rotation so up in the air. Can they? People can talk themselves into a lot of things. Here's what I could pitch to you: 1. You shed the salaries of A-Ram, Cotts, Broxton, Lohse, Parra - that's roughly $45M. Raises (either by existing contracts or arbitration) will likely eat up $20M (Braun, K-Rod, Maldonado, Lucroy, Segura, Gomez, Smith (I think he's arby eligible next year), Peralta). That leaves you with $25M to spend - assuming spending is roughly at the same level as this year. You have significant holes at 3B (A-Ram), and the rotation (Lohse), plus the bullpen might need an arm or two. And some depth signings might be in order. 2. Fill your holes with one-year (maybe two-year) contracts (Aaron Harang or Dave Freese, for example), and you're not incurring too much long term commitments. 3. Count on good health - no major injuries like Lucroy has experienced this year. And guys who have had injury issues in past manage to avoid them (Lind, Braun, Gomez). 4. Count on improvements from young players - Davis, Sardinas, Peralta, Nelson, etc. 5. Count on certain players returning to form - Garza, Scooter, Maldonado, etc. 6. Hope a couple of rookies or cheap signings pan out (sort of like Blazek emerging this year as a solid bullpen part). This means the club is a lot like this year's team. As noted, it's counting on rebounds and improvements from some players, and good health. The rotation (Garza, Fiers, Nelson, Peralta, FA guy, plus Cravy, Jungmann and Wagner as fallbacks) could be average-ish. If the bats pick up, the hitting could be better than average. Add in a little luck, and it's a team with a shot at the Wild Card. Also, I can argue that if things don't go well in the first half, you can look to place key vets - Lucroy, Gomez, Lind, Segura, etc. - on the trade block at this time. Yes, the return probably isn't as good as if you did the deal this summer or in the off season, but you could still get some decent players. Did I convince you? Personally, I think too many stars have to align for the team to be a contender next year. It's not impossible, just improbable, in my opinion. No. But your last post is more in line with where they should be headed. Like you said, we would be counting on a whole lot of things to go right- just like this year. Almost impossible for so many things to go right. But yea, you could take the same approach, get lucky and maybe hit .500. But like you said in your last post, I think they need to give the young arms a shot and see what you have. 2016 should be the year to figure out which young pitchers can stay in the rotation, hopefully Peralta and someone else steps ups to show they can be top of the rotation guys. Also a chance to test drive some young bullpen arms.