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logan82

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Everything posted by logan82

  1. logan82
    O ten?
  2. logan82
    That sucks stoutdude. Hopefully you can exchange it for a version you can play on a different platform. Some Wal Marts will exchange without a receipt. I wish I could joint the all 3 console club. At this point though, even if I had the money I wouldn't really feel compelled to get a PS3. They have some really nice games, but I am getting by fine without. Most of the best games are multiplatform anymore anyway. The only reason I would want a PS3 is for MLB The Show. $360 seems a bit excessive for one game. There is a rumor going around about a full expansion for DA:O coming out in March. Sounds like it might be around $30-$40. I have the Stone Prisoner and Warden's Keep DLC. I don't really feel like either was worth the money. I don't think they were a total ripoff, but neither added much gameplay even if you did Shale's personal quest. Of course I got The Stone Prisoner free since I bought the special edition. Kotaku 1up
  3. logan82
    I was speaking about instant access to any movie, but yeah even with the slow access that Netflix offers I wouldn't buy a movie again either. If all you had to do to get instant access to any movie was a flat $30 a month fee, that would be really cheap. Most people probably already have instant access through their cable/satellite company or a videogame console. There are limits on the downloads though. I think you can only watch a movie once and have to finish it within 24 hours of starting through the Xbox for instance.
  4. logan82
    it's hard to believe we haven't reached the point where we can view any movie or TV show we want, any time we want. We have reached that point. Nobody wants to miss out on making extra money from their movies. If we could get any movie just by paying a $20-$30 monthly fee as soon as it is released on DVD , why would anybody in their right mind buy DVD's anymore.
  5. logan82
    Don't forget to add in slight drops from Braun and Fielder along with a probable big drop from McGehee and Weeks not being able to match our 2B production from 2009. We upgraded our offense at catcher and maybe SS. Other than that we stayed equal or got worse.
  6. logan82
    We aren't replacing Braun at 3B like defenders at SS or CF. Escobar could be the best in the league but at this point is probably average to a little above average. We should prbabaly expect him to be a little worse than JJ at this point. That isn't bad as JJ is one of the better defenders in the league. Well above average but not elite. Zaun is probably better than Kendall but not alot. I don't think he will get much chance to add much behind the plate. Gomez is probably better than Cameron, but like replacing JJ, there isn't much between Cameron and the best in the league. Basically the difference between JJ/Cameron and the elite defenders is less than JJ/Cameron and the average defenders. We maybe pick up half a win with defense at those 3 positions. Depending on how Weeks plays, we may give most of that right back and then some. By the end of 2010 we may be wishing for Hardy/Kendall 2009 instead of Gomez/Escobar 2010. Those 2 have speed and could be very exciting. I think Escobar can match Hardy's .229/.302/.357/.659. I am hoping he is closer to a .700 OPS with a .330+ OBP. To this point, Gomez wishes he could put up a line like Kendall's 2009. Gomez would probably be the worst hitter in almost any lineup, even one with Kendall in it.
  7. logan82
    I can't believe a hospital charges $70 to stick a Q-tip 3 inches up your nose to tell you that you don't have H1N1 and then they also tell you that the test isn't really accurate so you may have it anyway.
  8. logan82
    It was kind of a confusing post because I started talking about how we wouldn't be able to match our 2B production and then went the other way without explaining. I could have posted it clearer.
  9. logan82
    Yes and no. Obviously if BABIP goes down their slash stats will generally go down. Look Ryan Braun and compare 2007 to 2008. His BABIP dropped way off from .367 to .309 and his LD%, GB% and FB% were almost identical.
  10. logan82
    I was looking at what I would put them at ERA wise in 2010 compared to where I would put them in 2009. I think Parra may have been projected a little high in 2009. Bush should probably be about the same, but my expectations are a little lower for him in 2010 than they were in 2009. I only had each as 0.25 ERA lower. I thought Parra should be in the 4.25-4.50 range for ERA in 2009 and would put him in more the 4.50-4.75 ERA range for 2010. I guess I pretty much ignore the win/loss record from the previous season and make a guess from there. I look at it that we were expected to win about 84 games last year and got a little worse as a team so we should be around 82 wins this coming year.
  11. logan82
    I would guess we get a projection pretty similar to what we had predicted at he start of spring training next year. I think our team is a little worse overall than we were after the Looper signing but Chicago and St. Louis are not as good, specifically Chicago, as they were a year ago. Dave Cameron had an interseting piece on predicting how good a team will be over at Fangraphs today. When looking at 2010 for example we need to compare what we expect out of Escobar vs expectations for Hardy instead of saying "Escobar can match what Hardy did in 2009." I think in general people here do that. There are posts that have our offense prety much the same saying things like that without taking into account small drop-offs from Fielder and Braun along with a bigger expected drop-off from McGehee and 2B.(.303/.377/.474/.851) I love Weeks, but wouldn't predict him to put up those numbers. Overall C - better +1 1B - same 2B - a little worse -0.5 SS - worse -1 3B - about the same with a little better OBP LF - same CF - worse -2 RF - same Gallardo - same Bush - -0.5 Parra - -0.5 Suppan - same Wolf - +1 I guess overall my guess is that we are about 2 wins worse than the team just after the Looper signing. Maybe we pick up a win for our bulpen and a win from the NL central being a little worse(that may also be wishful thinking). Keep in mind 0.25 ERA is about half a win over 180 innings so my predictions are for Bush and Parra to be 0.25 ERA worse than their predictions for 2009. This is all off the top of my head though.
  12. logan82
    There are other options out there in FA that will give you better offensive numbers than what Hart gave the Brewers last year. Ankiel may even give you better production than what Hart gave the Brewers last year. Hart may hit better than that as well.
  13. logan82
    I would say Bay isn't a good fielder although I am not sure how UZR handles balls off the monster. I know that Dewan made a "Manny" adjustment and didn't count balls off the outfield wall when evaluating a player. This made guys playing in Fenway and Minute Maid look better. I wouldn't trust UZR for players who play in a park with irregularly small outfields. Bay wasn't a good fielder in PNC either and not getting younger so it is probably a safe bet he isn't a good fielder.
  14. logan82
    I am not saying there is no luck involved. I am saying less should be attributed to luck than many times is. I am not sure what you mean here. Nobody is saying very much luck is involved. To assume outliers in the norm are just random variance and thus not skill based in the thing I think we need to rethink. Outliers are something most people tend to want to ignore because it doesn't fit the theory they are viewing the subject through If it isn't repeatable, then it can't be given much weight. In general a guy with a BABIP outside of the "normal" range isn't going to repeat that year after year. Since that is the case, you can't give to much weight to it.
  15. logan82
    I always put a phone number or two for cab companies in the area into my cell phone whenever I intend to go out in a town. In a lot of cities the bar league will pay for your cab home if you ask the bar to call a cab for you.
  16. logan82
    McCalvy had the best lineup I have seen so far. I might switch up the bottom 3 a bit, but at least it has Escobar and Gomez at the bottom. His thought is switching Zaun and Hart depending on the handedness of the starter we are facing. Hart actually has a better OPS VS RHP than Zaun but with a much lower OBP. .339 vs .313 I won't quibble much with a guy a spot or two away from where I think they should be. It's when we start seeing guys batting 4+ spots higher than they should be that I really don't like. 1. Weeks 2B 2. Hart RF or Zaun C 3. Braun LF 4. Fielder 1B 5. McGehee 3B 6. Zaun C or Hart RF 7. Gomez CF 8. Escobar SS 9. Pitcher
  17. logan82
    It is very similar to a coin flip. It just has more variables. No matter what a player does, they are still only going to get a hit within a certain range of odds.
  18. logan82
    Doesn't matter what you know when every other person at the bar feels the need to buy you a shot.
  19. logan82
    I have been sort of disgusted with the amount of Badgers games on TV this year. I ran across this snippet on INCH. It's about a month old. I think it is probably from the weekend the Badgers went up to Michigan to play the Wolverines and Spartans. The Badgers to this point lead the league in goals scored and have given up one more than conference leader North Dakota(conference play only). Lead in both categories in all games. Things are still pretty bunched up with the top 5-6 teams. All within 6 points. Wisconsin is well represented on the US Junior team. No other school has more than one guy on the team, we have 3 plus an assistant coach. Link
  20. logan82
    Ponson didn't exactly get a lot of innings during those years other than 2004 either.
  21. logan82
    Even in the minors he was over .300. After I posted I thought about it and anything over a .320 BABIP and he probably wouldn't be in the majors for long. You don't see to many pitchers in the majors with a BABIP over .320 getting a lot of innings. I was going to guess a .320 BABIP for Parra so saying .330 is high is kind of nitpicking. The other thing in my opinion is that PArra is a lefty. I know people like lefties, but the platoon advantage exists and a lefty has to be a better pitcher as a lefty than a righty does. If you have two guys who are otherwise equal, I would take the righty.
  22. logan82
    As we have seen in the past, a mediocre reliever is perfectly capable of being a decent closer and money is usually better spent in other areas.
  23. logan82
    His arguement was always Escobar + whoever we get for Hardy + money saved on Hardy > Hardy. We have no idea what we could have traded Hardy for though. If it was a #1-2 starter, the Melvin made a bad decision. If Hardy for Gomez was the best we could expect, I think Melvin made the right call regardless of the results. It really doesn't seem like there was much of a market for Hardy last offseason.
  24. logan82
    Oops, my bad.
  25. logan82
    I expect Parra to carry a higher than normal BABIP around .315-.330 for his career .330, Really? That seems pretty high. I could easily see him carrying a higher BABIP, but it seems like hitters have a greater skill variance in the 2 major influences on BABIP, foot speed and how hard a ball is hit, than pitchers do. Over the course of the year a pitcher will face what amounts to an average hitter, or there about. If his fastball is not good I can see him getting hit harder, but I wouldn't think that would cause to much of an increase when facing so many different guys.
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