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logan82

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Everything posted by logan82

  1. If you are going to go to Penzey's I recommend signing up for their catalog. You get one every other month and it usually has a coupon for a free 1/4 cup jar of some seasoning or other. You usually have to buy something but usually only $10 at most.
  2. On a per year basis. WARP is a counting stat. So when you said career you meant yearly rate stats? Ok.... And of course it was just pure luck that Ichiro was healthy all those years and played complete seasons while weeks rarely plays more than 130 games in a year.... So in those games where Weeks has played and Ichiro has played (roughly 1000 games) then Weeks is as good a hitter, while the other 531 games when their careers have overlapped and Ichiro has played and weeks has been out, they don't matter. Ok... Yup, that is exactly what I meant.
  3. You should listen to some of the other idiots other teams trot out there. I'm glad BA talks a lot (for one, he's told do things that way by his higher ups), it also means Schroeder doesn't talk as much. Those games that Coshun/Schroeder call are so amazingly painful that I cannot even stand watching. I actually do listen to other teams when they have games on MLB Network. Some guys are terrible, some are so-so. I love the Nationals guys FP Santangelo and whoever the other guys is. I just don't get the love for Brian. He's dry and boring. He says stupid things to fill air and when he talks about advanced stats like OPS (gasp!) he always sounds tongue in cheek about it. Keep in mind the audience when they talk about stats. If it's outside the triple crown stats it outside of most casual fans' knowledge. I believe most casual fans to be luddites.
  4. Penzey's has a lot of salt free seasonings. Price wise they are not to far out of line with your regular store bought seasonings.
  5. Weeks has also had a dip in production. Ichiro's best year was 2004 with a 131 WRC+ and .375 wOBA. Weeks 2010 127/.368. Obviously when you take defense and longevity/health into account Ichiro is a much more valuable player but their career wOBA and WRC+ are almost exactly the same. It is actually very interesting to compare the two using OBP/SLG/OPS then WRC+ and wOBA. They are guys who get their value in different ways. Weeks .346/.422/.768 Ichiro .363/.417/.780 wOBA/WRC+/ISO Weeks .340/108/.175 Ichiro .337/109/.096
  6. When you start talking about situational hitting the samples sizes become to small to draw any predictive value from them. You also are not taking into consideration the skill of the base runners who were usually on base in front of Weeks. He has hit at the top of the order for the majority of his career.
  7. Right. Nobody ever said a hit was as good as a walk. If you have to start talking about specific situations it becomes a much much smaller amount of the time when it makes a difference. Guy on first a single may move him past 2b so it would be the same thing as a walk. Yup, probably about the same. I would look at wOBA though. Player A probably has a bit more value. Not much though since the other guy hits for more power. Again, the type of hits you get matter. BA doesn't tell you anything about that. HR, triples, and doubles are better than singles. Strikeouts matter but they are already taken into account as outs in other stats. An out is an out is an out. I think you would need to change something like 100k into outs in play to make a difference of one run over the course of a season. Again, when evaluating a player you can't look at just specific situations. Look at things on a per team basis and you will see that strikeouts and batting average have almost no correlation at all with runs scored while OBP, SLG and OPS have a much much stronger correlation with runs scored. If you want to continue to look at small samples there is no common ground to discuss this. The eye test should only be used for defense(in conjunction with the stats) and when you don't have a good sample of PA. It has been shown over and over again that a person's observations are usually faulty at best. Please, I beg you to do some reading on statistics. Especially sample sizes. On a per year basis. WARP is a counting stat.
  8. It is almost completely worthless. It doesn't matter how often you can get a hit if they are all singles and you almost never walk. It is all about total production added with the bat. Batting average is worthless if that is what you want to know. All it will tell you is how a guy adds value when used with another stat. I look at overall value a hitter adds at the plate. In my opinion you can't leave anything out. It leads to a bad analysis. Since I am being accused of suggesting Dunn is better than Ichiro and Gwynn I might as well give an opinion. In the case of Dunn and Gwynn I would use something like WRC since it is adjusted for league average and they played in different run environments. I would say Gwynn was a better hitter in comparison to the guys he played with than Dunn is, but not by much. If they played at the same time I would say they add roughly equivalent value with the bat. Ichiro is not in the same class as either of those two guys by either measure. He is the definition of a empty batting average. Interesting note, I would say Ichiro was roughly equivalent to Weeks as a hitter over their careers.
  9. Come on now, you really have to look into it to determine if Tony Gwynn or Adam Dunn is a better hitter. I assume you have seen both play, sometimes all you have to do is use your eyes and not go too far into the numbers. He had a .338 career batting average and hit over .350 for five consecutive years, batting average does still means something contrary to what some say. If you want to do a good analysis yes. Provided there are enough concentrated PA to make a good determination of a players estimated value. Using the eye test is at the bottom of the list if you have enough PA.
  10. Which year are you talking about? Are you talking their entire career? I would have to look into it.
  11. I think you are starting at the bottom of the list of good stats to judge a hitter on. Way at the bottom.
  12. No but they are probably not 90 win teams talent wise. They are probably mid to high 80's win talent teams. We could see a few years back the Pirates were on the rise. Same for the Orioles. I remember a few years back people were talking about the Orioles up and coming pitching talent. I think we need to get better to be good enough to have a chance at 90 wins. If I thought we would be good during his contract I would probably still want to trade him. I wouldn't be as opposed to hanging onto him as I am now though. I think he is our #1 trading chip. I 100% want him traded for good prospects to build our franchise.
  13. I'm of the mindset that "Hope is not a plan." He'll stay on the team and probably continue his trend of hitting poorly except for one or maybe two hot months. No one should be surprised next season when it happens. The Brewers are simply in the situation where they need to wait for his contract to run out at this point. Hope is not a plan but what else can you do? Eat the contract and bring in somebody else I guess but at this point I don't think that is any better. Considering the position of the rest of the team I wouldn't want to bring in somebody else except maybe in trade, maybe. Unless we improve our pitching I think we have to just ride it out. I don't think Weeks is tradeable at this point. If it was somebody else in a similar position and the Brewers traded for him I would be upset if the Brewers traded for him and took on his salary.
  14. That is a real poor example and not even close to the argument MNBrew is making, really reaching to try to make a case for the horrible play of Weeks the last two years. You just can't ignore something a player does to add value. He said "my point is that he's become just about as worthless with the bat as Yuni when he's not getting on base by not swinging the bat" which while that may be true, doesn't make Weeks anything similar to Yuni as a hitter. It would be like going back to 2011 and saying "if you don't look at defense Yuni and Gomez are basically the same player." Sure I can. I said he wasn't decent this year. Especially at his salary. Probably true. It isn't like Gennett is likely to be an upgrade though. We have to hope Weeks gets better next year.
  15. I just have to say, this is not even close to true. Weeks has a 91 wRC+ this season. Yuni has a 60. The difference between Weeks and Yuni with the bat this season is about the same as the difference between Weeks and Segura. Not exactly when you boil it down. The difference is that Weeks still walks a lot more than Yuni and also is still good at getting hit by a lot of pitches. Weeks strikes out a ton and my point is that he's become just about as worthless with the bat as Yuni when he's not getting on base by not swinging the bat. You can't just arbitrarily take out stats. If Weeks fielding wasn't so bad this year he wouldn't be a bad player to have at 2B. Not worth the $10m he is getting paid but not bad. Unfortunately it looks like his fielding is as bad as it was when he first came up. I would have to imagine he has little to no trade value at this point. I think we have to hope he turns it around next year but still doesn't vest his option. His K% is a little higher than career norms. BB% almost dead on his career average. More LD, more GB fewer FB. HIs out of zone contact % is down as is his overall contact %. That coupled with seeing fewer pitches in the zone looks like the problem. 4% more first strikes than career norms. That doesn't seem very significant though. That is only 16 pitches for strikes instead of balls to start a PA. His clutch is way down but that could all be related. He possibly gets pitched differently with guys on base. He is seeing more guys on base than normal batting lower in the lineup. It could be as simple as jumping on that first pitch more often or it could be a decline in bat speed not allowing him to make contact as often or making worse contact when he does.
  16. You can't get your best return unless you are shopping a guy. Remember when Lawrie was traded and some GM's didn't even know he was on the market. I am not saying don't drive a hard bargain but you have to let teams know you are interested in trading a guy.
  17. Austin Powers.
  18. That value coupled with a decent im house replacement is exactly why we should be shopping Gomez. I just don't get the feeling we are.
  19. No, I still wouldn't give a crap. I wouldn't care about the PED part but I would want Molina banned for life cause he acts like a douche on the field.
  20. I think the strongest evidence to date Melvin and The manager should be fired is the fact Yuni is still around. I think it proves they are not qualified to be making decisions for a MLB team.
  21. Bianchi looks like a good future bench player to me. With himon the team I think Gamel or Greem make a lot of sense.
  22. The funny thing is that many of them will still have a higher cumulative career WAR and with every game Yuni sets that bar lower and lower.
  23. If I had to guess I think Braun will put up similar numbers with more time off for injuries.
  24. Lucroy's bat isn't good enough that it needs to be in the lineup every day. He is better than what we have now but that is setting the bar low and I would hate to burn him out playing every day on a losing team.
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