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thebruce44

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Everything posted by thebruce44

  1. thebruce44
    How many AB's is that sample from? In 79 ABs Molina is hitting .392 with an OBP of .457 with RISP. And he's a catcher, not a 1B. Cuddyer (2.5 back of the Dbacks), Gonzalez (2.5 back of the Dbacks), and Votto (better record, 4 back). Anyway, I think I personally would vote for McCutchen. Great offensive numbers overall, even better as a CF. Then there is that defense and base running. And then the team aspect. Most wins in the majors and he's the only guy on the team batting over .300.
  2. thebruce44
    I like that it adjusts for position, but can certainly be skewed by defensive variations. Perhaps people would be more accepting of VORP, which I don't believe considers defense, just position and offense. In the NL, it looks like you have Wright at 34.0, Shin-Soo Choo at 33.8, Votto at 33.5, Molina at 31.9, Posey at 31.6, Carpenter at 30.5, then 7th Goldschmidt at 28.6. For just the batting component of WAR, which I believe would weight wOBA for position and nothing more: Votto at 25.8, Wright at 21.9, Posey at 21.0, Choo at 20.7, then 5th Goldschmidt at 20.6. Gomez is 10th with 16.6 as obviously a lot of his overall value is defensive and on the bases. If people just flat out refuse to want any advanced metrics, in OPS, Cuddyer, Carlos Gonzalez and Votto are ahead of Goldschmidt. They all play offensive positions and are on competing teams.
  3. thebruce44
    Why? How could you justify him over the 9 players ahead in WAR, specifically the 4 or 5 who are on competing teams? So should we now replace "MVP," with "Season WAR leader on a good enough team that deserves to have the MV....errr..."WAR," leader on it? And a lot of these guys are so close in WAR you have to look a little bit deeper than that. How many people had AZ leading their division halfway through the year? I think he's certainly credible. I don't think I even implied that. I was more referencing the fact that several players have put up better or similar numbers on competing teams and asking for him to make a case for Goldschmidt. His case was that he seems to have gotten big hits whenever he has been watching. I was hoping for more, and your point about AZ leading the division, while I don't agree with it, is along the lines of what I was expecting as it sometimes influences voters. Lets not let this discussion morph into the old WAR debate please.
  4. thebruce44
    I've thought this as well. I remember thinking with guys like Sexson, Burnitz, Jenkins, Cirillo, Vina, Loretta, etc we should "have a chance this year," and yet we were never able to crack the .500 mark. Until we come to the realization that a handful of good position players and maybe a decent pitcher or two surrounded by a bunch of replacement level guys will never be a good team, we will continue to play bad baseball. However, there will still be people (perhaps blinded by "Brewer glasses" as I was in the '90s) that think "we have a good core, so we should be able to compete." I don't think people were blinded by "Brewer glasses" as much as just missing the mark when it came to projecting our starting pitching. I was guilty of thinking we were going to get above average production from Yo, Lohse, Estrada, and one of Fiers/Peralta/whoever stepped up. It seemed like a decent expectation given what those guys had done in the past. Instead all of those guys are on pace to be below a WAR of 2 (aka below average).
  5. thebruce44
    Why? How could you justify him over the 9 players ahead in WAR, specifically the 4 or 5 who are on competing teams? Look at the stats. Take him out of that lineup, and where would the D-Backs be? It seems like every time that I watch them play, Goldschmidt comes through with a big hit. I guess looking at the stats is what made me think he shouldn't win. I haven't watched much, but the clutch argument seems tough to quantify vs other players with similar numbers on winning teams who don't play 1B.
  6. thebruce44
    I remember it being reported when he signed. I think the concerning thing is that a few of us here knew his contract situation while it would appear the Brewers FO had to go back and look. You would think they would be aware of this as the trade deadline approaches.
  7. thebruce44
    Why? How could you justify him over the 9 players ahead in WAR, specifically the 4 or 5 who are on competing teams?
  8. thebruce44
    They don't "Do nothing." They are just all so similar it makes no real difference. I think there is a bell curve as well. A guy like Dave Duncan or Mike Maddux seem to have continued success so there has to be something there. Ethierl, I think you are coming into this discussion at a very late stage. Calling for RR and DM to be fired implies changing out the coaching staff as well. But you aren't going to see a lot of people calling for the pitching/hitting coaches to be let go with RR and DM staying.
  9. thebruce44
    What I'm getting at is you can't say a guy has proven to be Ryan Braun when he hasn't actually ever done it. I'm just objecting to the word proven and the implication that they are equal. You can't just remove negatives to say that they are the same player. For an extreme example, Yuni B has probably put together a stretch as good as Ryan has been for 2 years now, but he obviously isn't Ryan Braun. Where do you draw the line?
  10. thebruce44
    So you'd only trade Segura for a much more expensive, much more injury prone, and much older player at the same position? Don't get me wrong, if I could choose between both players as 23 year olds I take Tulo hands down, but Tulo is 28 and as it turned out has trouble staying on the field. He's only played more than 145 (chosen because that's 90% of a season) games twice and came close 1 other time. I really like Tulo as player but there no way I take any proven star at the SS position over Segura -- his production relative to his cost makes him untradable. Your points about Tulowitzki (expensive, injuries) are valid and I completely understand your point of view. However, Tulo has proven to be a Braun at the SS position. I'm a huge Tulo fan, but that's just not true. When healthy, Tulo's production has been near or even better than Braun. But he has yet to put together a year near as good as Braun has been these past two and he has been below average in 2 of the last 6 years.
  11. thebruce44
    This is very much part of the hypothetical discussion. Like I said, it's a obvious choice considering who we have in CF right now. Segura is slugging .525. His HR/FB is 18%. He leads the league in "just enough" HRs at 9. I don't see how you can suggest he will hit for more power than this in the near future. Yes, I think he will fill out more and put up more real power, so hopefully he can get back to this unsustainable rate through talent later in his career. With regards to Stache's post, I read that as inconsequential to the discussion. We are looking at these players in a vacuum. Who do you want...and regardless I wouldn't factor in the presence of Gomez if I had the chance to magically acquire Trout.
  12. thebruce44
    That's makes no sense. Its not like CF isn't a premium defensive position. It makes plenty of sense if you don't cut out the rest of what I said. You do a disservice to this argument and board when you do that. SS is the most premium position on the field, and CF is a close second. This is just the beginning what we are seeing with Segura. He's still developing. The power will increase even more which will further improve his stats. Also, considering who the Brewers have in CF already, Segura is the obvious option of who we should want out of any of those options. Ok, in the interest of not doing the board a diservice, here was the rest of your post: Exactly. It's not a slam dunk like people are saying. I would take the SS every time. I also think Segura is going to show more power than he's showing right now and this is only the beginning. What am I missing or how am I taking that out of context? Segura is a SS, but I don't think the difference between playing an elite CF vs well above average SS would make up for the difference in their batting projections (or what they have already accomplished for that matter with Segura probably playing over his head). I also don't think its wise to make a blanket statement such as taking the SS every time. I suspect you overstated your opinion, but regardless its important to note just how much Trout's defense can help a team. Additionally, who else is already on your team isn't part of the hypothetical discussion.
  13. thebruce44
    That's makes no sense. Its not like CF isn't a premium defensive position. I didn't say that CF wasn't important. To me SS is the most important position when it comes to defense. CF is #3 behind catcher. Maybe you value CF more than I do. I prefer the elite SS over the elite CF. You can't really go wrong with having any of these guys on your team. They are all young and very talented. I guess it just comes down to preference. Having an elite SS can make a heck of a difference. Look at how Furcal's elite defense made a big contribution to the Cardinals back in 2011. A SS with Segura's defense could have made a huge difference for the Brewers in 2011. I realize he didn't say CF wasn't important. What doesn't make sense to me is just blindly taking the SS over other positions, such as CF. THe difference on offense, health, and baserunning should be included in any evaluation just like position should.
  14. thebruce44
    Well actually it could have come at a better time, like when the Brewers still were in contention or against the Reds who he's hitting .154 against or the Cards who he's hitting .114 against. This now is simply window dressing. Even with his hot June, he still has a dozen fewer RBI on the season than Yuni who's been awful. They showed a graphic on the Cub telecast last night. With runners on, Weeks was hitting .160 and with the bases empty he was hitting .269. After last night those splits are now .177 and .273. Still a long way from a winning baseball formula in my book. Hopefully his hot streak will generate interest from some team out there. I have no delusions about what he'd bring in return besides some salary (likely not all) relief, but they cannot afford a third straight year where his slow starts help the team get hopelessly buried. That's 16 ABs vs the Reds and 35 against the Cards. Can we stick to real complaints about him like his defensive regression?
  15. thebruce44
    I would take the SS every time. That's makes no sense. Its not like CF isn't a premium defensive position.
  16. thebruce44
    Trout.
  17. thebruce44
    I wonder how all the backloading we did on ARam and Lohse's contracts will affect their trade value.
  18. thebruce44
    I agree with all of this. Maybe its just my perception of Gomez falling into our laps since so many had written him off...sort of like when you are up in blackjack and more willing to lose because its not your money anyway.
  19. thebruce44
    Honestly, I don't think you realize how dynamic talent evaluation is. Its not like all managers are sitting there with WAR in front of them to make sure they get more than they give. There are a lot of other factors such as cost, positional needs, future vs present value, and team specific needs that can effect what someone is willing to take or give up. Gomez is a very good player with a low cost and future value. He doesn't fit a team specific need for us as much as pitching, so you try to find a team that needs more offense and defense in center field right now, yet doesn't have an overwhelming need for future value at pitching. Its not that hard to see whats possible, or that out of line to suggest that both teams could benefit from a move like this.
  20. thebruce44
    MLB would look foolish to the people who actually know whats going on. To the unfortunately vast majority, they will look like they are trying and Braun is a cheater who got away with it again. Source: I live in a city other than Milwaukee and go to a lot of baseball games and bars.
  21. thebruce44
    Interesting tidbit there that I bolded. If it is true that Braun's name can't be connect to PED's but still connected to the clinic, does MLB think they can really get away with suspending him? you should read this thread from the start, that has been debated some already in better detail than what i'll say. Tested positive or otherwise violates the program by use or possession of a performance enhancing drug will be subject to penalty. so they dont have to prove that he USED PED's, they just have to show that Braun, and his money records in question, are connected to possession of PED's. That's not what he was asking. The question is how far removed from actual possession (since they have no actual way to prove he was in possession of PEDs) will MLB go before they admit they don't have a case. Personally, I think they suspend Braun based off whatever they can get fully knowing it will be laughed out of any real court because their true goal now is to publicly shame Braun while looking tough on drugs.
  22. thebruce44
    We need to compartmentalize the entire roster into 25 divisions. Only when each equally important compartment is successful will the team as a whole be successful. So to lower one compartment to improve another, equally important compartment, is pointless. Moving on.
  23. thebruce44
    It dropped yesterday. The new Kayne record also dropped as well. I don't quite understand the indie/hipster/critic love for it. Pitchfork gave it a 9.5. Does that mean London Calling is a 20? I made it through once. I feel like I need to give it at least one more listen, but man is it rough. I suppose it sounds decent when he stops telling me how great he is and the featured guests sing.
  24. thebruce44
    Nearest I can tell though, there is no actual proof here, correct? If thats the case, sure go to court to make your point, but I don't see what you can reasonably expect to accomplish. Sorry, this situation sounds pretty disappointing in general.
  25. thebruce44
    I don't think anyone is saying to shop him because he's 30 and thats some magical cutoff age. Its just that a 30 year old player makes a lot more sense on teams trying to compete now instead of one looking at a potential rebuild. In terms of what teams would be interested, wouldn't you think he could also play LF? He would be an improvement for The Yankees, Rangers, White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Reds, Nationals, Phillies, Angles, and Rockies based on WAR at either corner OF position.
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