LouisEly
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Everything posted by LouisEly
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Prices are healthy, but that's because there's very low supply. Volume is down significantly, so what banks are potentially gaining in rates they are losing in volume. Profit = margin x volume. Also, the home builders are afraid to increase production on the fears that higher interest rates for longer will scare off buyers and buyers at current monthly payments will dry up, and they don't want to be stuck with inventory, further decreasing the supply. If rates come down, bank profit will be made up in volume. And all it takes is one bank to cut rates to get volume, and the rest will follow because of how much business they'll lose to other banks with lower rates.
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No talk of rate hikes in the Fed minutes.
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https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/heres-the-inflation-breakdown-for-march-2024-in-one-chart.html Some bright spots: Food: 2.2% YoY Driven by Food Away From Home (4.2%) Food at Home: 1.2% Energy: 2.1% YoY Driven by Electricity (5%) Gas: 1.3% Inflation is being driven primarily by two things: Shelter (5.7%) Motor Vehicle Insurance (22.2%) What are consumers supposed to do about those things? Go without insurance? Can't tell you how many damaged vehicles I've seen driving around because people only have liability insurance (and the cost of repair, also up 11.6%). People have to live where the jobs are, plus millions of immigrants/migrants are taking up the housing on the low end of the spectrum forcing people to higher rents. That, and high interest rates make home ownership less affordable, increasing the demand for rent. Don't get me started on Juices & Drinks (27.5%). $9.99 for a 12-pack at my local store now. Seriously Coca-Cola and Pepsi?
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What doesn't help the upper class and big businesses far more than it will help everyone else? It's not about what will help who the most. It's about what will hurt who the most. The upper class and big businesses will figure out how to make money regardless of what the fed/guvmint does. But if rates get raised, businesses will layoff more people, and the middle class will get hurt. As I pointed to above, it's already happening. And it already happened to me. 7 months unemployed and now I'm making 20% less than I was making a year ago. I'm in a permanent mild recession.
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2024 Minor League Transaction Thread
LouisEly replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
And almost Milwaukee Brewer. You wonder how things may have been different if that had happened. Lucroy vetoed that deal to Cleveland and the Brewers got Brinson from Texas instead, who they packaged to Miami for Yelich. Mejia was still a top prospect pre-2018 at the time of the Yelich trade, but who knows if the Brewers would have been willing to part with him versus an OF. -
I think watching it on TV is better. The TV cameras can get a close-up view and you can see the solar flares around the shadow of the moon. All the major networks have special national coverage.
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They absolutely should not be raising rates now. If you take shelter out of the CPI the inflation rate is under 2% and high rates cause rents to increase. The jobs reports are getting majorly revised downward and the household survey tells a completely different story. The BLS jobs report for January showed 350k jobs created, but that's already been revised downward by 124k jobs and the household survey for January showed a drop of 31k jobs and the number of multiple job holders is rising: https://schiffgold.com/exploring-finance/jobs-the-household-survey-tells-a-different-story-2/ And the unemployment rate for people age 25 and older with a bachelor's degree has been ticking upward since late 2022: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS14027662 The employment level for management, professional, and related occupations has dropped since October of 2023: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU02032201 All of the jobs gains have been in part-time jobs and no significant growth in full-time jobs for several months. That's not an environment that they should be raising rates in.
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The only way that's going to happen is if the NCAA goes to a federal judge or Congress and can convince them that unlimited transfers is anti-competitive, likely on the grounds that schools don't know if they will be able to field a team the following season or that some schools can't compete with NIL funds - as opposed to limiting transfers being anti-competitive. If Northern Michigan can't field a hockey team next year, that might be the example they need. Otherwise, it might take years of the same teams being at the bottom to build that case. That, or scholarships become contracts, likely with pay-for-play included.
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Of course they would... if there were no other teams bidding for him. The problem is that by going into the portal they don't know if he will chose them. With him likely being one of the top 3 players in the portal, the competition is stiff.
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Most of the kids who go into the portal are looking for a bag. Let's be real. And NMU doesn't have squat for NIL funds.
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One person said that this week and he doesn't have voting rights until 2026.
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Jobs report out this morning, bond yields are up, but the job gains were almost entirely part-time. No significant job gains for a few months now in full-time jobs. Still less full-time employment per person than in 2019. Labor force participation rate has changed little in the last year despite the job gains, suggesting that immigration is driving the job gains. February jobs number revised down by 5,000 but January is now 100,000 lower than the initial estimate. Jobs numbers have almost always been revised downward over the last year. I hope the Fed is paying attention.
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They've done a pretty good buildup for WM. What I've been hoping would happen, that is actually set up really good for, is for all of the wrestlers who the Bloodline has screwed over to come out and just destroy the Bloodline through the announce booths, tables, all of their finishing moves onto chairs, etc., that allows Rhodes to win with the Bloodline taken out. It is set up really well because of the stipulation for the tag team match on Saturday being "anything goes" if Reigns/The Rock win. Unfortunately the one who would best make that happen - Brock Lesnar, and was set up for that after he shook Rhodes' hand at the end of their feud - is unlikely to be in a WWE ring anytime soon if ever again due to the alleged connection to McMahon and the sex trafficking/harassment allegations. (But Lesnar is listed on the active roster on their website.) Plus, McIntyre turning heel limits that pool, and so does Dustin Rhodes being signed to AEW. I guess they still have Seth Rollins, Jey Uso, Randy Orton, Sammy Zayne, Kevin Owens. Maybe they have a bunch of "legends" with ties to the Rhodes family also come out. Bron Breakker is connected because of his father, and maybe he comes out with him, maybe with Scott too. Rumor is that Jason Kelce has been signed to appear, so he's a possibility. Rikishi is supposed to be there, and maybe he turns on the Bloodline and aligns with Jey Uso and his connection to wrestling with Cody/Dustin and is "ashamed" of what the Bloodline has done.
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https://www.espn.com/golf/story/_/id/39867226/jon-rahm-liv-stars-agree-liv-pga-tour-split-not-sustainable Hey Rahm and DeChambeau, maybe you shouldn't have joined the damn LIV if you feel this way?!?!
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Kansas reached out and asked him what it would take to get him. He said $1M. Kansas countered with $750K. Storr passed. Storr's #1 goal is the NBA and it's going to take a lot right now to get him to forego that.
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I don't think so. I think what's happening is that schools are reaching out to Storr now that he put his name in the portal and are asking him what it will take to get him to come there. His primary goal is the NBA, so I think he's telling schools an inflated number that would get him to bypass the NBA draft process right now. Once the draft evaluation process is over, if he gets the feedback that he won't be drafted then his NIL number will likely come down. But Storr reportedly passed up $750K from Kansas and $500K from UW, and I think that's him reinforcing that his #1 goal is the NBA and it's going to take really big number to get him to forego the NBA and the evaluation process and commit to a school right now.
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Hockey players are thinking that they can get NIL amounts like basketball and football players are getting. I think they're going to be disappointed.
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IIRC the reasoning stated by Sherman at the time was that Sander "had experience punting in big games".
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Twins (Varland) vs Brewers (Junis): 4/2/24, 3:10pm
LouisEly replied to Brock Beauchamp's topic in Archived Game Threads
I don't see a replay on Bally's. Was it not on Bally's today? The last game I see is game 2 at NYM. EDIT: Nevermind, showing up now. App not updating. -
Which app, Bally's? I watched the replay of both games on the Bally's app (Sunday wasn't on) via an Amazon Fire Stick and I was able to skip forward 15 seconds at a time even during commercial breaks. Yes, I needed to skip forward 8-10 times between innings, but overall it works fairly well, much better than last year. Can skip forward 15 seconds between pitches for slow-working pitchers or when there is a foul ball.
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Arizona hasn't been to the Final Four since 2001. In 22 seasons since then (excluding 2020 when there was no tournament), they have been ranked in the top 10 at some point during the season 15 times. They've lost in the first round six times. They've made the Elite Eight five times. Winning in the NCAA tournament is hard.
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He needs to get his priorities straight first before he's going to get playing time anywhere. Part of me thinks that for some kids entering the portal is a way of "quiet quitting" while trying to maintain some dignity. Nobody really follows where players end up after they go into the portal (does anyone remember - or care - that Dean Engram didn't end up anywhere after he entered the portal?) unless someone is purposely looking for them. However, if someone were to leave the team but not transfer, it's a more public way of admitting failure.
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They kind of can. If needed, they can do for Carter Gilmore what they did with Isaac Lindsey and give him a NIL deal equal to in-state tuition in lieu of a scholarship. Last year UW had 13 on scholarship + Lindsey on NIL. Losing Wahl, Essegian, and (90% chance of) Yalden. Freitag and Robison coming in. Assuming Yalden is off the team (not necessarily transferring - he might just leave the team to focus on life decisions and school), that leaves 12 including Storr plus Lindsey back on scholarship. They'll try to bring in a 4 from the portal to replace Yalden, so if Storr comes back and they bring in a transfer then they just put Lindsey back on NIL.
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At this point he is not hiring an agent so he can maintain his eligibility while getting feedback from the league. Not a bad decision.
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Mitchell Out 1-2 Months With Broken Hand.
LouisEly replied to BruisedCrew's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
OF: Yelich, Chourio, Frelick, Perkins IF: Hoskins, Turang, Adames, Ortiz, Monasterio, Bauers C: Contreras, Haase, Sanchez Turang has played CF in AAA, so he can be another OF. Bauers has played LF and RF in the majors.
