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igor67

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Everything posted by igor67

  1. igor67
    Definitely a nice swap, not expecting the world but a respectable regular is good value particularly since we have very little at 3rd.
  2. igor67
    I agree it would be premature to start planning on Peralta being a force in the rotation for next year, but I do think it highlights why it's also premature to write-off next season too. If Estrada bounces back and Gallardo gets back to doing his thing that rotation can look pretty solid in a hurry. Not loaded with aces, but with the offense a rotation of mostly #2-3 starters can do pretty well. Nelson is having himself a pretty good year too he could easily be up in September as well.
  3. igor67
    Shooting for the moon is always nice, but getting two pitchers back say Rondon and Crosby for K-rod still strikes me as a pretty solid deal. Sure there's a number of guys injured, but overall AA and AAA we're pretty thin on pitchers we can still count as prospects so I see little wrong with trying to fill the cupboard a little bit with options. Pitchers being so hard to predict I think there is more of a quantity argument to be had.
  4. igor67
    What a month so far for Wily, and it's not just luck the BB and K rates have been much better. And happy for Gindl too a little bit of production early on really helps generate more chances.
  5. igor67
    I was reasonably critical over the years of a number of moves where Melvin tended to go with the veteran guy who was somewhat more expensive first over the internal option. They've generally done a pretty good job at opening the door to play the really good prospects. However looking back at that stretch and the performance of many of those lesser prospects I'm less confident that constantly churning with those prospects to keep costs down would have actually worked. It looks more like they had a pretty good sense of which guys could contribute rather than just assuming any guy with an .800 OPS in AAA could hack it for 1/4 the cost and assume the result would work. Which points back to not having drafted and/or developed as well for a stretch. I wonder if the decision to try and bulk up on pitchers was part of the problem? They had such good success with hitters, that maybe it was counterproductive for them to use so many high picks in that 2 or so year stretch?
  6. igor67
    I'll second the idea of adding a pitcher. They are the least predictable and I'd hold out for a low level guy who had some projectability that gave him a shot to be better than someone we already have. There is some strategy needed because you only have so many innings to try and develop guys.
  7. igor67
    I think it is worth making a big distinction between whether we are talking a 1st or 2nd round pick. Looking at the historical studies (http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/06/draft_picks_and.php)and rounding up a bit to be generous a 2nd round pick at the end of the round could be expected to produce 3 WAR. That is not much for career value. An end of the first rounder isn't much better (more like 5 WAR if generous). I'd be willing for reliever types perhaps, maybe even a guy like Weeks who has value that is close to his salary. Aoki, Lohse... those guys though I'd want more.
  8. igor67
    TheCrew07 is right taking picks in trade vs. another prospect has to be weighed on a case by case basis. It's all about total talent. It is a tough comparison to make, but there should already be a general sense of how talented the class is overall, and their are plenty of historical studies on the relative value of picks deeper into the draft as well. The one significant advantage from a trade standpoint is that a pick is more fungible value to the receiving team. For example I would rather have a comp pick in the second round instead of say another player whose ceiling would be a regular OF. We have a pretty healthy number of middle of the road OF guys, that addign another one is not substantially improving the talent base, the pick means I could get a comparable talent at another position.
  9. igor67
    This is why it has continued to keep coming up. "Win now" should mean trading prospects for major leaguers to help in the current year. I hope we've established that this is not the problem, the draft and or development has fallen off in the next wave. That is the area that needs improvement not complaining about 'broken windows'. I'd be quite interested in a novel explanation of why certain organizations can crank out so many pitchers year after year. Too much analysis on this front smacks of post hoc explanations rather than meaningful insight into how much is luck, how much is scouting and how much is development.
  10. igor67
    Should the current approach fail to indict Braun, rumor has it that Bud has scheduled a seance to summon the ghost of Kennesaw Mountain Landis to hire the Pinkertons to solve the problem.
  11. igor67
    I will point out again that while the prospects traded away at the time certainly seemed significant the Brewers would not have significantly better talent on the field right now if they held onto those guys. Career OPS Lorenzo Cain .720 OPS, Escobar .653 OPS, Lawrie .752 OPS, Brantely .708 and of course La Porta was a complete flop. Odorizzi is still fairly exciting as a guy to follow, but his career ERA in 5 starts is 5.68. Lawrie's 150 rookie ABs is the only thing out of that entire group of prospects that comes remotely close to Segura's year (372 ABs). Or let's put it this way let's drop the benefit of Greinke and Sabathia for playoff runs. Would you trade Segura today for Lawrie and Odorizzi?
  12. igor67
    There is still a lot of time left, but regardless of how you look at next season a lower base with incentives for Hart looks like a very attractive plan. Clearly there is some risk that Hart might be done like Sexson was after his run. However, the following assortment have all had a chance to make a case to be the guy: Halton, Gamel, Crush Davis, Fransisco, and Morris. Without rehashing every guys issues and strengths its fair to say none of them are prospects that you just hand the reigns to and none has grabbed the opportunity and refused to let go. Fransisco has performed the best, but he looks like a platoon guy. Morris hasn't been bad, but if he can't maintain what he's doing now after jumping up that line starts to look as suspect as what we've been trotting out.
  13. igor67
    Even under a tear it all down scenario I do think there is some substantial danger to the development of the pitchers in trading both Lohse and Gallardo. Too many young unknowns introduces a lot of variability that can put undue stress on the development of other players and continually burn out bullpens. This is basically what happen practically every year from the 90's to the mid-2000's. Based on performance at this point Lohse seems like the better bet to keep, and the contract is a better match for a building type of atmosphere. You can pencil him in the next couple of year and try to build around that. If you go the other route and hold onto Gallardo the circus comes to town again next year and either you are left scrambling in the offseason for a new veteran, trying to extend him or trading him mid year for something (which if you aren't extending him probably wouldn't be the deal to turn things around). It only works out if somehow a very solid rotation develops behind him in the next year which would require (even with new talent from trades) an awful lot of prospect luck. Keeping Lohse on the other hand you hope to find a couple of pieces next year to the longer term rotation puzzle, and hopefully in 2 years things are rounding into shape better that you deal Lohse in the last year. If the rotation does develop faster you still retain the option to deal Lohse next year at the deadline at which point he is probably at his peak value if he is still performing.
  14. igor67
    I'm excited for Gindl taking his career numbers into account at this point the scouts book on him looks pretty accurate: he lacked projection. Basically he picked up just enough to largely keep his OPS the same as he advanced. There were dips and some peaks, but overall he pretty much hit a mid .800 OPS every season. Saying that though still leaves a lot of room for uncertainty. His current stat line if you assume no more projection and just give him his current MLE it would be just under a .750 OPS (no platoon advantage). Yet on the other hand he has always been able to adjust to get to that mid .800 level of OPS which would be pretty handy particularly off the bench and with his positive defense too.
  15. igor67
    I appreciate the recognition a June All-prospect team guy by BA, but if you look at Taylor's total career you see an 18 year old light up both rookie league last year, a 19 year take a couple of months to adjust to low A ball and a guy who went back to lighting things up in June and now the first 1/3 of July. He's got the tools, the high round pedigree and more results than not results. I think he's playing into the headwind of generally down attitudes on the Brewers talent. I submit that if this was say 5-6 years ago he'd ride the core's coattails at this point into a much higher prospect status. The BA write-up I misses out on framing Taylor's performance by making it sound like June was his first time hitting. Whereas what his June and July numbers seem to confirm is that if he hadn't gotten sidelined his Pioneer league numbers last year for the full season would have continued his strong start and really had him on the radar.
  16. igor67
    Anybody have any data on how pitcher friendly the Southern League is playing this year? After a few years of drifting towards an almost normal amount of offense from the extreme pitcher friendly environment it was during Hart's time there it has seemed like maybe it's been suppressing runs again this year.
  17. igor67
    As Melvin correctly commented in the posted Grantland story the Brewers have too many options in some ways. Hart is one of many. I don't think you can have a sensible evaluation of whether bringing Corey back makes sense until after the trade deadline. Sell off as many spare parts for the best players available (catchers would be about the only player I'd pass on), continue to evaluate the triple AAA guys to see who has a role for next year and what kind. Then you can figure out if you are going with Morris next year, or going to go the somewhat surer route of extending Hart at a modest cost for a year. I'd view it as something of a luxury that our core guys are up the middle types and outside of a catcher you could pretty plausibly shift people around to accommodate just about any top level prospect coming in at a position. So if someone offers a great SS move him to 2nd or 3rd. Makes finding a match easier and therefore easier to get the best talent possible.
  18. igor67
    Anybody else think Aramis should sit for a week or something again to try and get that knee better healed? It's very hard to predict what people will actually trade for, but without necessarily committing to a fire sale I'd rather go into the selling process with my best potential assets at peak value and a walking wounded Ramirez hardly fits the bill.
  19. igor67
    Guys like Gindl can be very undervalued. Some of it is the arby system, but 4th OF who can hit a high .700- low .800 OPS don't actually grow on trees. It remains to be seen if Gindl can hit that well in the majors, but a guy who is comfortable doing that part time with some defensive skill is pretty valuable.
  20. igor67
    Tyrone Taylor staying red hot (2-3 with a HR and 2BB), since the multi-hit game break through they've been coming almost everyday and the walks are starting to pour in pretty frequently as well. Looks like the guy who turned heads in Helena last year for sure. Definitely helping to keep the link report exciting.
  21. igor67
    Bothered by the Lawrie comment. 2011 .953 OPS in 150 ABs 2012 .729 OPS in 494 ABs 2013 .642 OPS in 139 ABs In the alternate universe where we don't get Marcum we are staring at a potential arby decision already after the season on this guy. Yes he could still turn things around, but he is starting to get into that danger territory where he becomes another never will be. The actual production traded away during the win now years ends up not being that much. There is still plenty of room for debate, but it is wrong to judge Melvin on the major league results for the players he traded for and not apply the same standard to the ones traded away.
  22. igor67
    Arguably Braun is the least deserving candidate for the Al-star game off the Brewers. Almost as crazy is that we truly have 3 deserving All-stars and still such a bad record. With as weak as 3rd base is without the injury Aramis could have almost been a 4th.
  23. igor67
    Now I'd certainly rather have Condon at this point than not, but at this point he's not in that much different of a place than Manny Parra was when we all did leaps for joy at our shrewd use of the draft and follow. Considering he has another year before even being drafted again let alone getting the the majors I prefer to hold off on being dejected.
  24. igor67
    What truly well controlled study do we have that can help us identify "quality scouts"? I level the following critique of better scouting. Are we to truly believe that there is any team this side of maybe the Marlins who isn't trying to hire the best scouts it can find? How are we evaluating this in a controlled way? Quite the contrary scouting quality is defined the same way team chemistry is, by winning more or less. There is no suggestion listed above that couldn't have been found on various internet sites 5 maybe even 10 years ago. Which means none of it even if implemented gets this team ahead of the curve relative to anyone else. It is entirely possible that the normal variance in the scouting and player development process can explain as much or more of the variation in team level results as any particular set of strategies. Lauding the Cards system is a perfectly good example for the bulk of the time I've been on Brewerfan their farm system was pretty comparable to our current farm system. They just managed to keep using those pieces very effectively and hit big on Pujols, which has to rank as a fluke.
  25. igor67
    I suspect that the correlation results from the asymmetry of the run possibilities. There are only so many runs you can prevent.
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