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igor67

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Everything posted by igor67

  1. igor67
    There is also importance from a negotiating perspective of demonstrating that the offer is the offer. You run into problems if everyone knows you are going to use every last dollar.
  2. igor67
    Focusing on on the Home game effect since with the current schedule I think road park effects aren't a big deal, I am estimating that switch parks would put him in the 25-30 HR season group. So that is a noticeable improvement.
  3. igor67
    It's not a guarantee, but with only 57 games left to play if either team wins the season series at this point they have the tie breaker, which amounts to effectively a 3 game advantage for the other 49 games. So focus on winning the series and we are in pretty good position. Certainly if we can do better than 5-3 in those 8 games it's huge.
  4. igor67
    Berry makes the most sense as an explanation since they are still taking the extra bases and that is more of a function of the 3rd base coach.
  5. igor67
    George Webb paid him off
  6. igor67
    Winning the remaining 8 head to head games I think would just about do it
  7. igor67
    I think Vaughn can be a productive player, but tops out as a contributor who doesn't 'hurt' us. I could be wrong about that, but slotting him back a half step to a platoon/ bench player to get an idea of how much staying power he has makes sense. At some point if we keep cranking out productive farm players we need to deal some of them or we have a big roster crunch. Power, defense, and On base doesn't K much for O'Hearn.
  8. igor67
    Current pace would be a 93 pitch complete game
  9. igor67
    While it's kind of cherry picking in real and important ways this team is not the same team that played in March, and their run prevention since then has been great. Extrapolating from those other 95 games they would allow only 582 runs in a season
  10. igor67
    So at the 99 game mark, Those first 4 games a whopping 4% of the season so far and the Brewers gave up over 12% of their entire seasons worth of runs. That's kind of crazy at this point.
  11. igor67
    I'd be content with just getting 1 FA year bought out. The numbers are so big in total dollars (whatever they end up at) for Miz that any kind of deal is going to get him comfortably insured for life type money. After that level of money there is little reason to play it safe from his perspective so he's likely to do less of a discount than we would need. On the flip side every extra year at that point is just 1 more year you are risking paying 20+ million for zero innings from a player who already throws unnaturally hard.
  12. igor67
    Thought I'd bump this since our network of play locations has grown a lot in the last few months, so even with a modest amount of driving you could check us out most places in the state https://discord.gg/cq7QMAYk4B
  13. igor67
    I think part of the difficulty is still trying to adjust to how low league average offense has sunk. I mean we are still talking about how great Frelick's line is, but it is basically Mark Loretta's career line .295/.360/.395 with some more steals. There's just an initial reaction to looking at those stat lines that takes some effort to overcome.
  14. igor67
    Get him healthy, so he can keep playing full tilt. IL all the way.
  15. igor67
    Woodruff being in a QO position is just about perfect. We don't want contracts for more than a year on 32+ years old pitchers. And if someone else really feels like paying him that much that he drops the QO I can live with that.
  16. igor67
    Perkins value is all about being a great 4th OF, where because of the defense you can play him anywhere for a day and not lose a ton of overall ground while you give guys a break or work on playing some match-ups. While still being a solid bench option for late game substitutions.
  17. igor67
    Cool I don't want him to waste a valuable inning there though.
  18. igor67
    Not nearly as clutch, but against a good offensive team team coming back with that answering HR helped to prevent the game from becoming interesting, aka save the bullpen.
  19. igor67
    Well as a longtime fan of the combination of respectable power, high average, good OBP and above average defense, yes. But it's also a fun way to look at differences in Era's. Cirillo's entire career OPS is .796 for a 102+ Career OPS+. That raw total would put him 54th this year in all of baseball. For ease of comparison Matt Chapman has a .797 OPS this year heavy on the OBP for a much more impressive 130 OPS+
  20. igor67
    Into the top Wildcard spot after yesterday. Someone had posted something similar not too long ago, but the NL Central has the best run differential in baseball. It's so good if you ignore the Rockies in the NL West and the Cubs in the Central, the NL west only ends up with a slightly better differential. The AL East is the closest differential, at +171 compared to the NL Central at 194. A certain March series is doing a lot of the work to even make it that close. For those who don't want to look it amounts to a 44 run swing!
  21. igor67
    And 1 of those 4 sad runs was a garbage time run in the first game. I regret only that this wasn't a playoff series.
  22. igor67
    I don't mind short term rolling with Vaughn, but this is definitely a situation where I'd take Matt's advice from an article late last week and be prepared to go big. If we could find a significant 1st base answer for now and the next few years go for it.
  23. igor67
    If that is the Woodruff we are getting you feel real good about the playoff rotation.
  24. igor67
    Vaughn's Valley returns.
  25. igor67
    As you indicated you were not super into Baseball for a number of decades there are some important historical items that were left out. First WAR was not used to my knowledge by the As front office. WAR is a statistic that became more popular in what could be called the Money Ball era, but it is not a Moneyball statistic. The Money ball philosophy was quite simple find what things that contribute to success are currently being undervalued by other teams and use that insight to more economically build a team. The original Moneyball insight was that most other teams overemphasized batting average relative to the ability to take walks. Critically in a matter of a few years as other teams changed their approach the A's would also change theirs. All WAR really attempts to be is a way of taking the offensive and defensive contributions of a players and turn them into a way of comparing their overall value relative to other players. Any teams looking for competitive advantages in data at this stage are much more focused on Stat Cast type data and using that to guide player adjustments. I doubt that too many front offices look at public WAR number.
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